olivLaw · US equity research
Pony AI Inc. PONY
Services-Computer Integrated Systems Design · SIC 7373 · Vertical: Services-Computer Integrated Systems Design (SIC 7373)
Pony AI develops full-stack autonomous driving technology, the Virtual Driver, and applies it in robotaxis, robotrucks and licensing to automakers. The company is moving from development to large-scale deployment, with total revenues reaching 90.0 million USD in fiscal 2025.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Pony AI Inc. (PONY) stock was 4.75 USD (+4.40% on the day), with market capitalisation 2.1 bn USD, beta 2.29, 52-week range 4.55–17.37 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 32.8
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 4.36 – 5.90
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.25 · band width 30.0%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 6.15 / 9.08
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.44 / -0.45
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −22.3% | −2.0% | −20.3 pp | — |
| 3 months | −39.2% | −2.2% | −37.0 pp | — |
| 6 months | −53.7% | +4.3% | −58.0 pp | — |
| Year to date | −67.2% | +10.6% | −77.8 pp | — |
| 1 year | −71.4% | +10.5% | −81.8 pp | −33.2% |
| 3 years | unavailable | +73.7% | unavailable | −17.1% |
| 5 years | unavailable | +61.7% | unavailable | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 68.4 m | 71.9 m | 75.0 m | 90.0 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +5.1% | +4.3% | +20.0% |
| Net income | -148.0 m | -124.8 m | -274.1 m | -134.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | -1.73 | -1.40 | -2.40 | -0.35 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | -216.4% | -173.6% | -365.4% | -148.9% |
| Free cash flow | -166.8 m | -120.5 m | -122.2 m | -208.8 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 293.5 m USD
- Financial debt
- unavailable USD
- Net debt
- unavailable USD
- Equity
- 1.7 bn USD
- Total assets
- 1.8 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 13.67x
- ROE
- -10.0%
- ROA
- -9.4%
- FCF margin
- -232.0%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 68.4 m | 71.9 m | 75.0 m | 90.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Apr 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 36.3 m | 55.0 m | 63.6 m | 75.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Apr 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 32.1 m | 16.9 m | 11.4 m | 14.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Apr 2026verified |
| Research & development | 153.6 m | 122.7 m | 240.2 m | 217.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Apr 2026verified |
| SG&A | 49.2 m | 37.4 m | 56.7 m | 57.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Apr 2026verified |
| Operating income | -170.7 m | -143.2 m | -285.5 m | -260.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Apr 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 17.6 m | 15.5 m | 9.8 m | 7.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Apr 2026verified |
| EBITDA | -153.1 m ≈ | -127.7 m ≈ | -275.7 m ≈ | -253.8 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Apr 2026derived |
| Pre-tax income | -148.3 m | -125.5 m | -275.0 m | -76.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Apr 2026verified |
| Income tax | -74.0 k | -126.0 k | 1.0 k | — | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025verified |
| Net income | -148.0 m | -124.8 m | -274.1 m | -134.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Apr 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -1.73 | -1.40 | -2.40 | -0.35 | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Apr 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 85.3 m | 89.1 m | 114.3 m | 379.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Apr 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 316.3 m | 426.0 m | 536.0 m | 293.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Apr 2026verified |
| Receivables | 25.9 m | 31.6 m | 28.6 m | 23.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Apr 2026verified |
| Current assets | 643.6 m | 666.3 m | 834.6 m | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Apr 2026verified |
| Total assets | 771.5 m | 747.1 m | 1.1 bn | 1.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Apr 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 10.0 m | 13.8 m | 15.1 m | 17.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Apr 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 3.9 m | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025verified |
| Current liabilities | 48.1 m | 48.2 m | 70.9 m | 91.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Apr 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 53.6 m | 51.9 m | 82.1 m | 103.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Apr 2026verified |
| Equity | -539.6 m | -666.1 m | 968.7 m | 1.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Apr 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | — | — | 350.3 m | 433.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Apr 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -154.8 m | -115.4 m | -110.8 m | -165.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Apr 2026verified |
| Capex | 12.0 m | 5.1 m | 11.4 m | 43.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Apr 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -166.8 m ≈ | -120.5 m ≈ | -122.2 m ≈ | -208.8 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Apr 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | 49.3 m | 136.5 m | -181.3 m | -889.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Apr 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 191.6 m | 89.8 m | 407.4 m | 814.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Apr 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | — | 994.0 k | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Apr 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
4 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 2.1 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
72% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation method could be computed
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/Salesunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
no valuation method could be computed
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross margin · Quality | 15.7% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| EBIT margin · Quality | -289.8% | 24 (vs peers) | 12% |
| FCF margin · Quality | -232.0% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 9.6% | 38 (on a fixed band) | 24% |
| Revenue growth (YoY) · Growth | 20.0% | 76 (vs peers) | 12% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 13.7x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| EV/Sales · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -10.1% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 18% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Growth51/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality7/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/1 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Pony AI Inc. (PONY). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 90.0 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 20.0%; net margin -148.9%; ROE -10.3%.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Revenue growth (YoY): 20.0%
- Current ratio: 13.7x
What contradicts it
- Gross margin: 15.7%
- EBIT margin: -289.8%
- FCF margin: -232.0%
- FCF yield: -10.1%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Net debt / EBITDA, EV/Sales, Shareholder yield (distributions).
Versus the vertical median
Services-Computer Integrated Systems Design (SIC 7373) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LDOSLeidos Holdings, Inc. | 16.4 bn | 12.1 | 28.2% | 8.0% | +3.1% | −30% / +26% |
| GDDYGoDaddy Inc. | 14.3 bn | 16.2 | — | 18.6% | +8.3% | −7% / +18% |
| CACICACI International Inc | 14.0 bn | 25.9 | 12.5% | 5.5% | +10.9% | +2% / +97% |
| JKHYJack Henry & Associates, Inc. | 12.6 bn | 25.7 | 24.0% | 19.8% | +7.1% | +3% / +13% |
| IONQIonQ, Inc. | 11.3 bn | — | -60.8% | -553.3% | +201.9% | −40% / +142% |
| OTEXOpen Text Corp | 6.4 bn | 10.3 | 16.2% | 12.3% | +1.5% | −21% / −34% |
| SAICScience Applications International Corporation | 6.3 bn | 17.6 | 25.7% | 5.1% | −2.9% | +75% / +28% |
| WAYWaystar Holding Corp. | 5.7 bn | 42.9 | 3.7% | 10.7% | +16.5% | −20% / unavailable |
| KDKyndryl Holdings, Inc. | 3.7 bn | 46.2 | 7.6% | 0.6% | +0.2% | −35% / −7% |
| AGYSAgilysys, Inc. | 3.5 bn | 78.5 | 13.6% | 12.9% | +15.9% | −0% / +42% |
| NTCTNetscout Systems Inc | 2.8 bn | 23.3 | 7.5% | 13.7% | +4.5% | +42% / +90% |
| AURAurora Innovation, Inc. | 2.6 bn | — | -45.7% | -13,328.6% | unavailable | −3% / +86% |
| PONYPony AI Inc. | 2.1 bn | — | -10.3% | -148.9% | +20.0% | −71% / unavailable |
| OSPNOneSpan Inc. | 872.9 m | 13.2 | 26.8% | 27.5% | +0.0% | +94% / +136% |
| TLSTelos Corporation | 378.2 m | — | -14.9% | -8.1% | +52.2% | −12% / +23% |
| SLPSimulations Plus, Inc. | 374.2 m | 46.7 | 6.2% | 9.9% | +13.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| SMRTSmartrent, Inc. | 310.4 m | — | -8.4% | -13.0% | −12.9% | −6% / −48% |
| ASURAsure Software, Inc. | 293.6 m | — | -1.9% | — | +24.3% | +22% / +22% |
| VEEAVeea Inc. | 281.2 m | — | — | -2,491.9% | +56.6% | −55% / −98% |
| RBBNRibbon Communications Inc. | 275.9 m | 22.5 | 5.0% | 2.3% | +1.3% | −46% / −28% |
| KDKKodiak AI, Inc. | 220.7 m | — | — | -4,259.6% | −74.6% | −82% / unavailable |
| AIOSAIOS Tech Inc. | 138.9 m | — | -208.9% | -4,359.1% | −98.5% | −87% / −86% |
| MRLNMerlin, Inc. | 91.5 m | — | — | — | unavailable | −92% / unavailable |
| CSPICSP Inc | 75.4 m | — | -1.5% | -1.2% | +6.4% | −35% / −40% |
| HCTIHealthcare Triangle, Inc. | 69.2 m | — | -57.4% | -66.3% | +18.8% | −97% / −100% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for PONY from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 22 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (20 Oct 2026), 6-K (09 Oct 2026), 6-K (07 Oct 2026), 6-K (02 Oct 2026), 6-K (23 Sept 2026), 6-K (04 Sept 2026).
In brief
Pony AI develops full-stack autonomous driving technology, the Virtual Driver, and applies it in robotaxis, robotrucks and licensing to automakers. The company is moving from development to large-scale deployment, with total revenues reaching 90.0 million USD in fiscal 2025 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company holds licenses for fully driverless robotaxi operations in several large cities and has shown unit economics breakeven in Shenzhen and Guangzhou 1.
- The PonyWorld technology, which trains in simulated scenarios, allows testing on a far larger volume of data than real roads provide 1.
- Partnerships with automakers and mobility platforms help scale fleets without large direct investment 1.
Weaknesses
- Revenues remain small relative to research and development spending, and the robotaxi segment grew from a small base 1.
- The company acknowledges it has not yet reached long-term profitability and that dependence on large-scale deployment remains high 1.
- Revenues are concentrated in a few segments, and the shifting revenue mix makes forecasting harder 1.
Opportunities
Risks
- Dependence on regulatory approvalshigh
Driverless operations require local licenses, and losing or delaying them could halt expansion 1.
- Profitability not yet achievedhigh
The company says it has not reached profitability and that this depends on scaled deployment, which may take longer than expected 1.
- High research and development costsmedium
Spending in this area remains high, and if revenues do not grow enough, pressure on results could increase 1.
- Geopolitical risksmedium
Relations between China and other states could affect international operations and technology cooperation 1.
- Safety and technology reputationmedium
A serious incident could affect public acceptance and regulators' decisions, with effects across all markets 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the robotaxi fleet grows as planned and units reach breakeven in more cities, revenues could rise quickly from the current base 1.
- The third-party fleet model and automaker partnerships could allow scaling without proportional capital investment 1.
- PonyWorld and Virtual Driver licensing could generate recurring revenue and a durable technology advantage 1.
What would break the thesis
What to watch
- Number of operating robotaxis against the target of over 3,000 vehicles2026
- Robotaxi revenue trend and unit economics in new citiesQ1 2027
- Status of operating approvals in Europe and the Middle East2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 22 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (20 Oct 2026), 6-K (09 Oct 2026), 6-K (07 Oct 2026), 6-K (02 Oct 2026), 6-K (23 Sept 2026), 6-K (04 Sept 2026).
The business
Pony AI Inc. aims at large-scale commercialization of autonomous mobility, with historical roots in Silicon Valley and main operations in China. According to the 20-F, the company has licenses for fully driverless robotaxi operations in all four Tier-1 cities in China: Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen 1. It has also expanded into Europe, East Asia and the Middle East, and in March 2026 announced plans to deploy over 3,000 robotaxis in more than 20 cities by the end of 2026 1. The core platform, the Virtual Driver, is designed to be vehicle-agnostic and combines software, hardware and services 1.
The training model relies on PonyWorld, a world model methodology in which the system learns in AI-generated scenarios rather than only from human driving data. According to the report, in April 2026 the company launched PonyWorld 2.0, with self-diagnosis and targeted data collection capabilities 1. The company also said its Robotaxi business reached city-wide unit economics breakeven in Shenzhen in February 2026, after Guangzhou in November 2025 1.
The legal structure was simplified: contractual arrangements controlling the Chinese entities were terminated, and since February 2024 these entities have been wholly-owned subsidiaries 1. The company also listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in November 2025 1.
Segments
Robotaxi
Robotaxi services generated revenues of 16.6 million USD in fiscal 2025, up from 7.3 million USD in 2024 1. Revenues come from AV engineering services for OEMs and mobility platforms, passenger fares and licensing of the Virtual Driver system 1.
Market context
The autonomous driving market is moving from pilot projects to commercial deployment, and the report describes the industry as entering a new phase where performance, unit economics and scaling matter 1. The China market, with its four Tier-1 cities, forms the basis of current operations 1. International expansion through partnerships with local operators and ride-hailing platforms opens access to Europe and the Middle East 1.
Research and development expenses of 217.4 million USD in 2025, compared with 240.2 million USD in 2024, show the level of investment needed to keep the technological lead 1. The company says the industry has shifted from asking whether the technology works to asking how fast it can be improved and scaled 1.
Trends
- Shift to commercial deploymenttailwind
Companies in the sector are moving from demonstrations to paid services, which could lift revenues if fleets expand as planned 1.
- Fleet model with third-party ownerstailwind
Third-party fleet owners bear most of the capital expenditure, which could reduce pressure on the company's balance sheet 1.
- Pressure for unit economicsmixed
Reaching per-trip profitability depends on lower operating costs, and delays in this direction could postpone returns 1.
- International expansionmixed
Partnerships with local operators and regulatory approvals in other countries could accelerate growth, but they depend on authorizations that are not assured 1.
Competitive position
The report does not list direct competitors, but describes the competitive landscape as shaped by geopolitical relations, regulation and the ability to scale technology 1. Companies that already hold driverless operating licenses or partnerships with large automakers are in comparable positions 1.
The company's stated advantages are its PonyWorld training technology, its OEM partnerships and early licenses in Tier-1 cities 1. The company acknowledges that new entrants could affect pricing and market share 1.
- Chinese OEM partners (BAIC, GAC, SAIC)
Automakers the company works with on vehicles and supply chains, which could also become competitors in autonomous driving 1.
- Ride-hailing platforms (TNCs)
Platforms that may integrate their own robotaxis or choose rival suppliers, influencing access to customers 1.
- ADAS and hardware suppliers
Companies offering similar driver-assistance solutions to automakers, in the company's licensing segment 1.
- Local operators in the Middle East and East Asia
Partners or rivals in new markets whose position depends on local regulation and access to fleets 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
- Pony AI (PONY) Sees Robotaxi Fares Soar as Global Fleet ExpandsYahoo Finance — News · 27 Aug 2026 · EN
- Pony AI (PONY) Q2 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptYahoo Finance — News · 25 Aug 2026 · EN
- Uber and China’s Pony AI to launch over 2,000 robotaxis across EuropeEuronews Next · 14 Aug 2026 · EN
- Uber and China’s Pony AI to Deploy 2,000 Robotaxis in EuropeBloomberg Markets · 14 Aug 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 27 Aug 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 20 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Current report (foreign issuer)20 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)09 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)07 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)02 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)23 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)04 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)25 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)18 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)14 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)06 Aug 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Pony AI Inc. · 22 Apr 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.