olivLaw · US equity research
New Century Logistics (BVI) Ltd NCEW
Arrangement of Transportation of Freight & Cargo · SIC 4731 · Vertical: Arrangement of Transportation of Freight & Cargo (SIC 4731)
New Century Logistics is a Hong Kong-based freight forwarder focused mainly on air export and import shipments. Revenue fell 15.51% to 44.08 million USD in fiscal 2025 and the company reported a net loss, which makes the dependence on a few large customers worth examining.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 03 Nov 2026, New Century Logistics (BVI) Ltd (NCEW) stock was 16.52 USD (+0.00% on the day), with market capitalisation 422.8 m USD, beta 0.12, 52-week range 3.01–20.70 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 38.8
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 16.34 – 17.42
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.16 · band width 6.4%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 17.21 / 14.01
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.11 / -0.09
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −2.4% | −1.1% | −1.3 pp | — |
| 3 months | −3.4% | −0.5% | −3.0 pp | — |
| 6 months | +2.9% | +4.4% | −1.5 pp | — |
| Year to date | +181.8% | +12.3% | +169.5 pp | — |
| 1 year | +298.5% | +13.5% | +285.0 pp | −52.6% |
| 3 years | unavailable | +76.4% | unavailable | −70.0% |
| 5 years | unavailable | +63.7% | unavailable | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 75.2 m | 36.1 m | 52.2 m | 44.1 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −52.0% | +44.6% | −15.5% |
| Net income | 7.0 m | 454.4 k | 220.6 k | -10.7 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −93.5% | −51.4% | −4,937.5% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.35 | 0.18 | 0.09 | -3.71 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −48.6% | −50.0% | −4,222.2% |
| net % | 9.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% | -24.2% |
| Free cash flow | 6.3 m | unavailable | unavailable | -3.5 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 30 Sept 2025
- Cash
- 645.9 k USD
- Financial debt
- unavailable USD
- Net debt
- unavailable USD
- Equity
- 5.2 m USD
- Total assets
- 14.5 m USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 1.47x
- ROE
- -186.6%
- ROA
- -64.7%
- FCF margin
- -7.9%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 75.2 m | 36.1 m | 52.2 m | 44.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 63.6 m | 32.6 m | 47.9 m | 43.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 11.5 m | 3.5 m | 4.2 m | 162.7 k | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 8.2 m | 522.5 k | 470.3 k | -10.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 81.9 k | 11.8 k | 25.2 k | 20.5 k | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 8.3 m | 500.4 k | 394.8 k | -10.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 1.3 m | 46.0 k | 174.2 k | -20.6 k | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 7.0 m | 454.4 k | 220.6 k | -10.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.35 | 0.18 | 0.09 | -3.71 | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 20.0 m | 2.5 m | 2.5 m | 2.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | — | 291.3 k | 659.3 k | 645.9 k | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | — | 11.5 m | 13.2 m | 11.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | — | 13.8 m | 17.1 m | 13.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | — | 212.4 k | 33.3 k | 51.4 k | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | — | 15.8 m | 18.5 m | 14.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | — | 3.9 m | 6.5 m | 5.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | — | 9.3 m | 11.7 m | 9.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | — | 9.8 m | 12.2 m | 9.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 11.5 m | 6.0 m | 6.2 m | 5.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | — | — | 20.0 m | 25.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 6.8 m | -2.5 m | 1.4 m | -3.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 462.3 k | — | — | 54.5 k | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 6.3 m ≈ | — | — | -3.5 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -462.3 k | -218.1 k | 218.1 k | -54.5 k | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -5.8 m | 502.4 k | -1.3 m | 3.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 1.5 m | 1.1 m | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 28 Jan 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 5 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 33.3% of at least 60%
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
03 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 422.8 m USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
33% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation method could be computed
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · input data missing
no valuation method could be computed
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 33.3% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | -24.2% | 38 (vs peers) | 19% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -16.3% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 25% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | -529.8x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 19% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.5x | 56 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -0.8% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 25% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet22/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial38/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
NEW CENTURY LOGISTICS (BVI) LIMITED (NCEW). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 44.1 m USD in 2025; YoY growth -15.5%; net margin -24.2%; ROE -185.6%.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 33.3% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -16.3%
- Interest coverage: -529.8x
- FCF yield: -0.8%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Arrangement of Transportation of Freight & Cargo (SIC 4731) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 16 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXPDExpeditors International Of Washington, Inc. | 25.5 bn | 25.1 | 45.0% | 7.9% | +4.4% | +35% / +64% |
| CHRWC.h. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. | 15.5 bn | 24.0 | 38.9% | 3.7% | −8.4% | −16% / +63% |
| BCOBrink’s Co | 4.7 bn | 29.6 | 56.0% | 2.9% | +5.0% | +1% / +43% |
| FWRDForward Air Corporation | 644.5 m | — | -1,574.1% | -11.4% | +0.8% | −17% / −70% |
| RLGTRadiant Logistics, Inc. | 450.2 m | 24.6 | 8.0% | 2.0% | +3.5% | +54% / +60% |
| NCEWNew Century Logistics (bvi) Limited | 422.8 m | — | -185.6% | -24.2% | −15.5% | +299% / unavailable |
| PSIGPS International Group Ltd. | 80.1 m | — | -440.7% | -28.6% | −39.0% | +28% / unavailable |
| CRGOFreightos Ltd | 32.8 m | — | -35.8% | -59.5% | +23.9% | −79% / −79% |
| VNTGVantage Corp | 14.3 m | — | -31.1% | -7.4% | −4.4% | −50% / unavailable |
| QNMEQuanome Technologies, Inc. | 13.4 m | — | -192.5% | -162.1% | +111.8% | −55% / unavailable |
| SLGBSmart Logistics Global Limited | 9.5 m | — | -13.4% | -2.9% | unavailable | −87% / unavailable |
| ELOGEastern International Ltd. | 9.2 m | — | -8.6% | -454.0% | −24.4% | −65% / unavailable |
| JYDJayud Global Logistics Limited | 9.0 m | — | -36.8% | -5.9% | +8.7% | −65% / −99% |
| SGLYSingularity Future Technology Ltd. | 2.6 m | — | -55.6% | -347.5% | −6.6% | −95% / −99% |
| FRGTFreight Technologies, Inc. | 1.6 m | — | -338.3% | -60.5% | −4.9% | −95% / −100% |
| GVHGlobavend Holdings Limited | 1.4 m | 0.6 | 9.0% | 2.9% | +42.5% | −76% / −100% |
| HUBGHub Group, Inc. | — | 0.1 | 6.3% | 2.8% | −6.1% | −30% / −29% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for NCEW from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 17 Feb 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (13 Jul 2026), 6-K (09 Mar 2026).
In brief
New Century Logistics is a Hong Kong-based freight forwarder focused mainly on air export and import shipments. Revenue fell 15.51% to 44.08 million USD in fiscal 2025 and the company reported a net loss, which makes the dependence on a few large customers worth examining.
SWOT
Strengths
- A network of agents and relationships with several airlines lets the company secure cargo space even during peak periods 1.
- Management brings more than two decades of combined expertise in air and sea freight in Hong Kong 1.
- Integrated services spanning forwarding, warehousing and security screening are offered under one structure 1.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Revenue volatilityhigh
Revenue, operating income and cash flows can fluctuate considerably because there are no long-term contracts with customers 1.
- Concentration on a few vendorsmedium
The company relies on a limited number of cargo space suppliers, and without formal supply guarantees, shortfalls could affect deliveries 1.
- Cybersecurity exposuremedium
Cyber-attacks or data breaches could disrupt systems and damage customer confidence 1.
- Credit risk on receivablesmedium
If some customers fail to pay, the company could record further losses, given accounts receivable of about 12.3 million USD at September 30, 2025 1.
- Political and regulatory risk in Hong Konghigh
Operations are concentrated in Hong Kong, so political instability, regulatory changes or travel restrictions could disrupt the business 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If customer demand stabilizes and online retail recovers, the company could win back lost volume, especially in air export.
- A network reaching more than 140 countries and airline relationships could help the company win new customers if it diversifies its base.
- Expanding its own warehousing could add revenue that is steadier than pure freight forwarding.
What would break the thesis
- If major customers keep reducing orders, revenue could continue to fall and losses could persist.
- Payment obligations for contracted cargo space can raise costs if demand does not recover.
- Geographic concentration in Hong Kong and reliance on air freight leave the company exposed to regional shocks.
What to watch
- Trend in air freight revenue and the number of active customersNext annual report
- Whether the net loss turns to profit after the revenue decline2026
- Growth in customer count and new orders from new customersNext quarter
- Progress of warehousing expansion through company-managed facilities2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 17 Feb 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (13 Jul 2026), 6-K (09 Mar 2026).
The business
The company is an international freight forwarder founded and based in Hong Kong, with roots going back to 2002 when NCL (HK) was incorporated. Its services cover air and ocean export and import, from sale of cargo space and cargo pick-up to customs clearance and port handling, with routes to over 140 countries 1. It acts as an intermediary, buying space from airlines and carriers and reselling it to its customers.
Segments
Air freight forwarding
This is the dominant segment, accounting for 95.13% of revenue in fiscal 2025 1. It covers cargo space booking with airlines, off-airport air cargo security screening and customs formalities, and its volume fell in fiscal 2025 because several major customers reduced orders.
Ocean freight forwarding
A small segment that contributed 1.28% of fiscal 2025 revenue 1. The company offers container consolidation, direct ocean forwarding and door-to-door service, but revenue from this segment fell sharply in the latest year.
Warehousing and distribution
Ancillary services run through the subsidiary Win-Tec at a Hong Kong warehouse, including inventory management, palletization and X-ray screening. Other services fell to 3.59% of total revenue in fiscal 2025 1.
Market context
Demand depends on trade between Hong Kong, mainland China and their trading partners, so regional GDP growth and trade policy directly shape volumes. The company notes that the logistics industry is expanding as online shopping grows, yet demand from its own customers declined in the latest fiscal year 1.
Trends
- Growth of e-commerce and omnichannel retailtailwind
Rising online and omnichannel retail increases demand for fast and secure delivery, which could support volumes if the company wins new customers.
- Lower orders from major customersheadwind
Reduced orders from several major customers, linked to their business downturns, lowered revenue and volumes in fiscal 2025 1.
- Fuel and labor cost pressureheadwind
Rising fuel and labor prices could increase direct costs, and if service rates cannot be raised, profitability could come under pressure 1.
- Regional infrastructure developmentmixed
Investment in ports, airports and transport networks in Hong Kong and mainland China can improve service, but can also bring more competition for market share 1.
Competitive position
The company operates in a highly competitive industry where customers can choose other forwarders offering lower prices. It has no long-term contracts with customers and is not the exclusive forwarder of any of them, so revenue is sensitive to competitors' pricing 1.
- Other freight forwarders in Hong Kong
Direct competitors in local air and ocean forwarding that may offer lower prices to the company's customers 1.
- Airlines and ocean carriers
Carriers from which the company buys cargo space and which may also sell directly to shippers 1.
- Cargo screening and warehousing operators
Security and storage providers the company relies on, and which compete in the ancillary services market 1.
- Regional logistics providers
Logistics companies in the region competing for the same export and import customers 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report (foreign issuer)13 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)09 Mar 2026
- Annual report (foreign issuer)17 Feb 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)18 Dec 2025
- Current report (foreign issuer)07 Nov 2025
- Current report (foreign issuer)30 Sept 2025
- Current report (foreign issuer)12 Aug 2025
- Current report (foreign issuer)05 Aug 2025
- Current report (foreign issuer)08 Jul 2025
- Current report (foreign issuer)04 Jun 2025
Sources
- [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-09-30 · SEC / New Century Logistics (BVI) Ltd · 17 Feb 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.