olivLaw · US equity research
NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc. NWE
Electric & Other Services Combined · SIC 4931 · Vertical: Electric & Other Services Combined (SIC 4931)
NorthWestern Energy supplies electricity and natural gas to a large customer base across Montana, South Dakota, Nebraska and Yellowstone National Park, playing an essential role in regional energy infrastructure. The company is in a transition period, shaped by its pending merger with Black Hills, rising demand tied to data centers and its shift toward carbon-free generation.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc. (NWE) stock was 82.00 USD (+2.56% on the day), with market capitalisation 5.0 bn USD, P/E 29.6 on diluted EPS of 2.77 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 3.24%, beta 0.20, 52-week range 61.01–82.00 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 392.6 m USD (+14.6% YoY), net income of 25.0 m USD (+17.7% YoY), diluted EPS 0.40 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 76.4
- overbought (≥ 70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 72.00 – 82.03
- in the upper half of the band · %B 1.00 · band width 13.0%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 72.57 / 70.64
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 2.50 / 2.17
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +19.3% | −1.1% | +20.4 pp | — |
| 3 months | +18.6% | −0.5% | +19.1 pp | — |
| 6 months | +15.4% | +4.4% | +11.0 pp | — |
| Year to date | +27.1% | +12.3% | +14.7 pp | — |
| 1 year | +34.8% | +13.5% | +21.2 pp | +4.6% |
| 3 years | +58.0% | +76.4% | −18.4 pp | +25.1% |
| 5 years | +39.6% | +63.7% | −24.1 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 345.2 m | 373.5 m | 466.6 m | 342.7 m | 387.0 m | 414.3 m | 497.6 m | 392.6 m |
| Operating income | 67.9 m | 91.7 m | 124.7 m | 60.8 m | 80.3 m | 60.0 m | 114.1 m | 64.2 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 57.0 m | 57.0 m | 62.4 m | 62.4 m | 62.8 m | 61.9 m | 66.8 m | 67.0 m |
| Interest expense | 33.4 m | 35.4 m | 36.5 m | 36.3 m | 38.4 m | 39.2 m | 39.9 m | 40.3 m |
| Pre-tax income | 43.7 m | 59.7 m | 92.1 m | 24.6 m | 47.0 m | 23.8 m | 77.3 m | 28.5 m |
| Income tax | -3.2 m | -20.8 m | 15.2 m | 3.4 m | 8.8 m | -20.9 m | 13.8 m | 3.5 m |
| Net income | 46.8 m | 80.6 m | 76.9 m | 21.2 m | 38.2 m | 44.7 m | 63.5 m | 25.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.76 | 1.31 | 1.25 | 0.35 | 0.62 | 0.72 | 1.03 | 0.40 |
| Operating cash flow | 120.0 m ≈ | 62.8 m | 153.4 m | 58.2 m ≈ | 126.7 m ≈ | 56.2 m | 159.4 m | 73.8 m ≈ |
| Capex | 153.2 m ≈ | 148.7 m | 92.1 m | 128.9 m ≈ | 153.6 m ≈ | 149.9 m | 116.1 m | 188.7 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 39.7 m ≈ | 39.7 m | 40.3 m | 40.3 m ≈ | 40.4 m ≈ | 40.4 m | 41.0 m | 41.1 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 13-quarter history (min 14.0, median 15.8, max 25.9; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +7.7% | −3.8% | +6.5% | +6.4% |
| Net income | 186.8 m | 183.0 m | 194.1 m | 224.1 m | 181.1 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −2.1% | +6.1% | +15.4% | −19.2% |
| Diluted EPS | 3.60 | 3.25 | 3.22 | 3.65 | 2.94 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −9.7% | −0.9% | +13.4% | −19.5% |
| net % | 13.6% | 12.4% | 13.7% | 14.8% | 11.2% |
| Free cash flow | -214.4 m | -207.9 m | -77.7 m | -142.5 m | -130.0 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 8.8 m USD
- Financial debt
- 3.3 bn USD
- Net debt
- 3.3 bn USD
- Equity
- 2.9 bn USD
- Total assets
- 8.5 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 1.15x
- Current ratio
- 0.72x
- ROE
- 6.3%
- ROA
- 2.2%
- FCF margin
- -8.1%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 275.7 m | 263.1 m | 300.5 m | 323.3 m | 325.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 187.5 m | 195.0 m | 210.5 m | 227.6 m | 249.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 463.1 m ≈ | 458.1 m ≈ | 510.9 m ≈ | 551.0 m ≈ | 575.3 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 93.7 m | 100.1 m | 114.6 m | 131.7 m | 150.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 190.3 m | 182.4 m | 201.7 m | 214.7 m | 187.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 3.4 m | -605.0 k | 7.5 m | -9.4 m | 6.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 186.8 m | 183.0 m | 194.1 m | 224.1 m | 181.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 3.60 | 3.25 | 3.22 | 3.65 | 2.94 | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 51.9 m | 56.3 m | 60.4 m | 61.4 m | 61.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 2.48 | 2.52 | 2.56 | 2.60 | 2.64 | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 2.8 m | 8.5 m | 9.2 m | 4.3 m | 8.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | — | 245.0 m | 212.3 m | 187.8 m | 209.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | — | 107.4 m | 114.5 m | 122.9 m | 132.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | — | 538.8 m | 407.0 m | 418.2 m | 503.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | — | 5.7 bn | 6.0 bn | 6.4 bn | 6.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | — | 357.6 m | 357.6 m | 357.6 m | 367.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 6.8 bn | 7.3 bn | 7.6 bn | 8.0 bn | 8.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | — | 201.5 m | 124.3 m | 111.8 m | 129.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | — | 144.5 m | 0 | 100.0 m | 150.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | — | 2.5 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.7 bn | 3.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | — | 620.8 m | 534.9 m | 802.2 m | 697.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | — | 4.7 bn | 4.8 bn | 5.1 bn | 5.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 2.3 bn † | 2.7 bn † | 2.8 bn † | 2.9 bn † | 2.9 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 220.0 m | 307.2 m | 489.2 m | 406.7 m | 394.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 434.3 m | 515.1 m | 566.9 m | 549.2 m | 524.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -214.4 m ≈ | -207.9 m ≈ | -77.7 m ≈ | -142.5 m ≈ | -130.0 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -435.8 m | -516.9 m | -570.8 m | -554.5 m | -570.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 217.5 m | 213.3 m | 84.3 m | 151.6 m | 177.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 128.5 m | 140.1 m | 154.1 m | 158.6 m | 161.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
3 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 24 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
score < 40 · (margin_of_safety <= -0.25 & agreement in ['high', 'medium'])
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 5.0 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet12
- Valuation9
- Quality32
- Growth21
- Returns54
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 34.69 – 75.81 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)34.69 – 46.66 (Mid 39.79)
- Peers: EV/EBITDA42.85 – 75.81 (Mid 62.71)10 companies used · median multiple 12.8x · quartiles 10.7x – 14.2xAEE, AVA, CMS, DUK, EVRG, EXC, LNT, NI, WEC, XEL
- Peers: P/E50.53 – 59.23 (Mid 54.94)14 companies used · median multiple 19.8x · quartiles 18.2x – 21.4xAEE, AVA, CMS, DUK, ED, EVRG, EXC, GNE, LNT, NI, PEG, UTL, WEC, XEL
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Unattractive profile · Score 24/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 5.0% | 33 (vs peers) | 6% |
| Net margin · Quality | 10.1% | 31 (vs peers) | 6% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 2.9% | 49 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -3.3% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 6.1x | 9 (vs peers) | 13% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 2.0x | 15 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.8x | 16 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 29.6x | 0 (vs peers) | 13% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 14.9x | 20 (vs peers) | 11% |
| Dividend yield · Returns | 3.2% | 67 (vs peers) | 15% |
| Payout ratio (EPS) · Returns | 96.0% | 23 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
Score groups
- Balance sheet12/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth21/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality32/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Returns54/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation9/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
Memo
NORTHWESTERN ENERGY GROUP, INC. (NWE). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.6 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 6.4%; net margin 10.1%; ROE 5.9%; net debt/EBITDA 6.1x.
The estimated value range is 42.85–59.23 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 54.94 USD, the price of 82.00 USD leaves a potential of -33.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -49.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 24/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
What contradicts it
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -3.3%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 6.1x
- Interest coverage: 2.0x
- Current ratio: 0.8x
- P/E (TTM): 29.6x
- EV/EBITDA: 14.9x
- Payout ratio (EPS): 96.0%
- The price is above the estimated value range
Versus the vertical median
Electric & Other Services Combined (SIC 4931) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 17 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DUKDuke Energy CORP | 101.0 bn | 19.8 | 9.8% | 15.8% | +5.6% | +5% / +40% |
| XELXcel Energy Inc | 51.7 bn | 18.8 | 11.4% | — | +1.2% | −2% / +32% |
| EXCExelon Corporation | 47.3 bn | 16.9 | 9.8% | 11.2% | +5.3% | −2% / +20% |
| EDConsolidated Edison Inc | 44.3 bn | 20.3 | 8.7% | 12.5% | +10.9% | +20% / +34% |
| WECWec Energy Group, Inc. | 38.9 bn | 21.4 | 12.5% | 17.6% | +14.0% | +5% / +41% |
| PEGPublic Service Enterprise Group Incorporated | 36.5 bn | 18.2 | 11.8% | 16.0% | +18.3% | −12% / +17% |
| PCGPg&E Corp | 35.9 bn | 9.6 | 9.7% | 12.3% | +2.1% | −17% / −22% |
| AEEAmeren Corp | 31.3 bn | 19.9 | 12.1% | 17.9% | +15.4% | +6% / +46% |
| CMSCms Energy Corp | 22.3 bn | 21.3 | 11.3% | 11.6% | +13.6% | −6% / +25% |
| NINiSource Inc. | 21.7 bn | 23.1 | 10.1% | 8.2% | +23.5% | +3% / +77% |
| EVRGEvergy, Inc. | 19.9 bn | 22.9 | 8.8% | 14.6% | +2.0% | +11% / +69% |
| LNTAlliant Energy Corp | 19.1 bn | 23.1 | 11.3% | 18.6% | +9.6% | +6% / +46% |
| NWENorthwestern Energy Group, Inc. | 5.0 bn | 29.6 | 5.9% | 10.1% | +6.4% | +35% / +58% |
| AVAAvista Corp | 3.4 bn | 13.5 | 9.0% | 12.8% | +1.3% | −3% / +18% |
| UTLUnitil Corporation | 1.0 bn | 18.3 | 9.0% | 9.1% | +8.3% | +13% / +17% |
| VIVOVivopower PLC | 46.7 m | — | — | -20,970.5% | +281.3% | −42% / −16% |
| GRDXGridAI Technologies Corp. | 38.7 m | — | -480.5% | -56,864.0% | unavailable | +82% / −67% |
| GNEGenie Energy Ltd. | — | 18.0 | 11.2% | 5.1% | +18.1% | +18% / −30% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for NWE from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 47.97 Total return -39% · Per year -39% | 84.86 Total return 7% · Per year 7% | 127.92 Total return 60% · Per year 60% |
| 3 years | 45.07 Total return -38% · Per year -15% | 89.87 Total return 20% · Per year 6% | 148.95 Total return 95% · Per year 25% |
| 5 years | 42.36 Total return -36% · Per year -9% | 95.18 Total return 34% · Per year 6% | 173.44 Total return 135% · Per year 19% |
- Exit P/E± 22.47
- Net margin± 15.73
- Annual revenue growth± 13.11
- Annual dilution± 1.32
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
NorthWestern Energy supplies electricity and natural gas to a large customer base across Montana, South Dakota, Nebraska and Yellowstone National Park, playing an essential role in regional energy infrastructure. The company is in a transition period, shaped by its pending merger with Black Hills, rising demand tied to data centers and its shift toward carbon-free generation.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has a stable base of regulated customers, predictable rates and a reliability record that is typically in the first or second quartile compared with peers 1.
- The portfolio includes carbon-free hydro resources and a high share of carbon-free energy, supporting the company's decarbonization goals 1.
- A firm capital investment plan and rate base growth targets give a clear medium-term direction for the business 3.
Weaknesses
- Cost recovery depends on commission decisions, and disallowances such as the one on YCGS could reduce revenue and affect liquidity 1.
- Operating costs of the acquired Colstrip interests are not yet included in customer rates, which could create temporary pressure on results 2.
- Reliance on subsidiary dividends and regulatory constraints may limit the financial flexibility of the parent company 1.
Opportunities
- If agreements with data center developers become firm contracts, the added load could support further grid and generation investment 3.
- The merger could bring operating synergies and greater scale, which could improve long-term access to capital 3.
- Expanding carbon-free capacity and storage could reduce dependence on coal as technologies advance 1.
Threats
- Changing greenhouse gas and environmental rules could impose significant compliance costs if they cannot be recovered through rates 1.
- A delay in the Montana approval could postpone merger closing and increase transaction costs 3.
- Fire, safety and cyber security risks could generate claims, penalties or service interruptions 1.
Risks
- Cost recovery in Montanahigh
The commission could find that some costs were not prudently incurred, reducing revenue and authorized returns, as happened with the partial disallowance of YCGS costs 2.
- Black Hills mergermedium
The transaction depends on Montana approval; if it is delayed or conditioned, closing could be postponed or changed, with effects on shareholders 3.
- Environmental regulationmedium
Rules on greenhouse gases and power plant standards could require extra investment or early retirement of coal units 1.
- Weather and market exposuremedium
Weather and price volatility in energy markets could affect load, generation and financial results, especially for purchased supply 1.
- Financing and dilutionlow
Higher interest rates or tighter capital markets could raise borrowing costs, and equity issuances needed for investment could dilute existing shareholders 3.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- A firm capital plan and a rate base growth target could support steady revenue growth over the medium term if regulation remains predictable.
- Data center demand in Montana could add significant load, and dedicated tariffs could protect existing customers while producing additional revenue.
- Joining a larger partner could create a company with better scale and diversification, which could improve access to capital.
What would break the thesis
- Cost disallowances and the pending reconsideration in Montana could reduce returns and slow earnings growth.
- Colstrip integration costs and merger expenses could weigh on near-term results if cost recovery through rates is delayed.
- Decarbonization pressure and emissions rules could require costly investments or early retirement of assets.
What to watch
- Final MPSC decision on merger approval2026
- Outcome of the reconsideration request on YCGS2026
- Closing of the Black Hills merger and the name of the combined companyyear-end 2026
- Signing of electric service agreements with data center developers2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc., doing business as NorthWestern Energy, provides electricity and natural gas to approximately 850,300 customers in Montana, South Dakota, Nebraska and Yellowstone National Park 1. Montana and Yellowstone operations run through subsidiary NW Corp, while South Dakota and Nebraska operations run through NWE Public Service 1. The company operates principally in two segments: electric utility and natural gas utility operations 1.
The company targets net-zero Scope 1 and Scope 2 carbon and methane emissions by 2050, and in 2025 approximately 52 percent of its electric portfolio, from owned and long-term resources, was carbon-free 1. The acquisition of an additional 40 percent interest in Colstrip Units 3 and 4 on January 1, 2026 brought its total share to 814 MW, changing its supply structure 1.
In August 2025 NorthWestern agreed to an all-stock merger of equals with Black Hills Corporation, under which each NorthWestern share would convert into 0.98 Black Hills shares, and the combined parent would be named Bright Horizon Energy 1. By July 2026 the FERC, Nebraska and South Dakota approvals had been received, leaving Montana as the only remaining approval, with closing anticipated by year-end 2026 3.
Segments
Electric utility
The electric segment covers generation, purchase, transmission and distribution of electricity. In Montana the company delivered power to customers across 225 communities, and in South Dakota it served more than 65,600 customers in 118 communities 1. The generation fleet includes hydro facilities, Colstrip Units 3 and 4 and gas plants such as YCGS, completed in 2025 1.
Natural gas utility
The natural gas segment covers production, purchase, transmission, storage and distribution of gas. Demand depends heavily on weather because gas is mainly used for heating, and a significant share of revenue is recognized in the first and fourth quarters 1.
Market context
NorthWestern operates in a regulated market where rates are set by state utility commissions through rate reviews, based on an allowed return on invested capital 1. Electricity demand in the region is rising, and data center requests in Montana have reached an expected growth of up to approximately 1,500 MW by 2030 in the latest filing 3.
The market is seasonal: electricity consumption is higher in summer for cooling and in winter for heating, and weather directly affects operating performance 1. Participation in regional markets such as the Western Energy Imbalance Market and SPP gives the company access to economic energy 1.
Trends
- Data center demandmixed
Development agreements with several data center developers could add significant new load if they convert into firm electric service contracts, and the company has proposed a large-load tariff to prevent costs from shifting to other customers 3.
- Merger with Black Hillsmixed
The merger is advancing with all approvals except Montana received, and integration could bring synergies if the deal closes, while merger-related costs have weighed on recent quarterly results 3.
- Energy transition and Colstripmixed
The Colstrip acquisition could increase available capacity, but operating costs are not yet recovered through customer rates, and a temporary cost-recovery waiver was approved on an interim basis in Montana 2.
- Regulation and cost recoveryheadwind
The December 2025 Montana final order led to a 30.9 million USD non-cash charge for the YCGS disallowance, and the company filed for reconsideration, so any later changes could be reflected in 2026 results 2.
Competitive position
Direct competition comes mainly from other utilities in the served regions, where franchise areas limit rivalry but independent generators and renewable suppliers add pressure 1. Participants in regional markets such as SPP and EIM also compete on the price of energy sold 1.
The Black Hills merger reshapes the competitive landscape by creating a larger regional player with a more diversified capital and operating base, which could change its position relative to other operators in the region 3.
- Black Hills CorporationBKH
Merger partner in the all-stock deal, which would become the parent of the combined company.
- Otter Tail Power Company
Neighboring utility with interconnections into the South Dakota system, serving customers in the region.
- Montana-Dakota Utilities Co.
Regional grid operator with transmission links to the company's South Dakota system.
- Xcel Energy Inc.
Large regional utility interconnected with the company's South Dakota grid.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- 2 ‘terrorists,’ including suicide bomber, killed in northwestern PakistanAnadolu Agency (TR, EN) · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Ancient DNA Traces Migration From Corinth to Northwestern Greece 2,600 Years AgoGreek Reporter (GR, EN) · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- 2 police officers guarding polio vaccinators gunned down in northwestern PakistanAnadolu Agency (TR, EN) · 03 Nov 2026 · EN
- Legendary stallion Victory Gallop enjoys retirement in northwestern TürkiyeHürriyet Daily News — Türkiye (TR, EN) · 27 Oct 2026 · EN
- School roof collapses in northwestern Pakistan, killing at least 29 peopleAl Jazeera English · 15 Oct 2026 · EN
- Russian drone debris damages artwork of famous contemporary artist at museum in northwestern UkraineKyiv Independent (UA, EN) · 14 Oct 2026 · EN
- Geologists uncover evidence of a missing Late Cretaceous magmatic arc in northwestern IranPhys.org · 09 Oct 2026 · EN
- At least 11 killed, 30 more injured in blast in northwestern Pakistan — ReutersTASS (RU, EN) · 26 Sept 2026 · EN
- No . 5 Indiana begins defense of Big Ten championship against improved and unbeaten Northwestern – Winnipeg Free PressSurge — GDELT DOC · 24 Sept 2026 · RO
- 🇸🇾 ⚡️ — An ammunition depot exploded in Aleppo, northwestern Syria. Multiple sec…Telegram — Intel Slava Z (pro-RU OSINT EN) · 20 Sept 2026 · EN
- Two earthquakes hits northwestern NepalThe Hindu — International · 16 Sept 2026 · EN
- Dozens dead after boat capsizes in northwestern NigeriaAl Jazeera English · 20 Aug 2026 · EN
- Ten police and 17 “bandits” killed in firefight in northwestern NigeriaAl Jazeera English · 11 Aug 2026 · EN
- At least 14 die, 20 wounded in terror attack in northwestern PakistanTASS (RU, EN) · 02 Aug 2026 · RO
- Houthis claim Saudi drone downed over northwestern YemenAl Jazeera English · 26 Jul 2026 · EN
- Two roadside bombs kill at least seven in northwestern PakistanAl Jazeera English · 20 Jun 2026 · EN
- Situation on Russia's northwestern borders worsens significantly — Border GuardTASS (RU, EN) · 27 May 2026 · RO
SEC filings
- Current report09 Sept 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report30 Jul 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report30 Jul 2026
- Current report22 Jun 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report02 Jun 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report02 Jun 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report27 May 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report18 May 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report05 May 2026Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report30 Apr 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc. · 12 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc. · 30 Jul 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc. · 30 Jul 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.