olivlawolivlaw

olivLaw · US equity research

NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc. NWE

Electric & Other Services Combined · SIC 4931 · Vertical: Electric & Other Services Combined (SIC 4931)

82.00USD+2.56% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

NorthWestern Energy supplies electricity and natural gas to a large customer base across Montana, South Dakota, Nebraska and Yellowstone National Park, playing an essential role in regional energy infrastructure. The company is in a transition period, shaped by its pending merger with Black Hills, rising demand tied to data centers and its shift toward carbon-free generation.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc. (NWE) stock was 82.00 USD (+2.56% on the day), with market capitalisation 5.0 bn USD, P/E 29.6 on diluted EPS of 2.77 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 3.24%, beta 0.20, 52-week range 61.01–82.00 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 392.6 m USD (+14.6% YoY), net income of 25.0 m USD (+17.7% YoY), diluted EPS 0.40 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
5.0 bn USD
shares as of 24 Jul 2026
P/E (TTM)
29.6
Diluted EPS TTM 2.77 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
3.38%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
3.24%
DPS 12m 2.66
Beta (2y)
0.20
Volatility (1y) 24%
52-week range
61.0182.00

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
76.4
overbought (≥ 70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
72.00 – 82.03
in the upper half of the band · %B 1.00 · band width 13.0%
SMA 50 / 200
72.57 / 70.64
uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
2.50 / 2.17
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+19.3%−1.1%+20.4 pp—
3 months+18.6%−0.5%+19.1 pp—
6 months+15.4%+4.4%+11.0 pp—
Year to date+27.1%+12.3%+14.7 pp—
1 year+34.8%+13.5%+21.2 pp+4.6%
3 years+58.0%+76.4%−18.4 pp+25.1%
5 years+39.6%+63.7%−24.1 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−11.0%
04 Mar 2026 → 20 Mar 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−25.8%
27 May 2022 → 27 Oct 2023
Compound annual growth (5y)
+6.9%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
392.6 m USD
+14.6% YoY
Net income
25.0 m USD
+17.7% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.40
+14.3% YoY
net / operating
6.4% / 16.4%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue345.2 m373.5 m466.6 m342.7 m387.0 m414.3 m497.6 m392.6 m
Operating income67.9 m91.7 m124.7 m60.8 m80.3 m60.0 m114.1 m64.2 m
Depreciation & amortisation57.0 m57.0 m62.4 m62.4 m62.8 m61.9 m66.8 m67.0 m
Interest expense33.4 m35.4 m36.5 m36.3 m38.4 m39.2 m39.9 m40.3 m
Pre-tax income43.7 m59.7 m92.1 m24.6 m47.0 m23.8 m77.3 m28.5 m
Income tax-3.2 m-20.8 m15.2 m3.4 m8.8 m-20.9 m13.8 m3.5 m
Net income46.8 m80.6 m76.9 m21.2 m38.2 m44.7 m63.5 m25.0 m
Diluted EPS0.761.311.250.350.620.721.030.40
Operating cash flow120.0 m ≈62.8 m153.4 m58.2 m ≈126.7 m ≈56.2 m159.4 m73.8 m ≈
Capex153.2 m ≈148.7 m92.1 m128.9 m ≈153.6 m ≈149.9 m116.1 m188.7 m ≈
Dividends paid39.7 m ≈39.7 m40.3 m40.3 m ≈40.4 m ≈40.4 m41.0 m41.1 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 13-quarter history (min 14.0, median 15.8, max 25.9; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20212022202320242025
Revenue1.4 bn1.5 bn1.4 bn1.5 bn1.6 bn
Revenue YoYunavailable+7.7%−3.8%+6.5%+6.4%
Net income186.8 m183.0 m194.1 m224.1 m181.1 m
Net income YoYunavailable−2.1%+6.1%+15.4%−19.2%
Diluted EPS3.603.253.223.652.94
Diluted EPS YoYunavailable−9.7%−0.9%+13.4%−19.5%
net %13.6%12.4%13.7%14.8%11.2%
Free cash flow-214.4 m-207.9 m-77.7 m-142.5 m-130.0 m

Reported results vs expectations

Loading…

Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
8.8 m USD
Financial debt
3.3 bn USD
Net debt
3.3 bn USD
Equity
2.9 bn USD
Total assets
8.5 bn USD
Debt / equity
1.15x
Current ratio
0.72x
ROE
6.3%
ROA
2.2%
FCF margin
-8.1%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
1.4 bn
2024
1.5 bn
2025
1.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
300.5 m
2024
323.3 m
2025
325.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
210.5 m
2024
227.6 m
2025
249.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
510.9 m ≈
2024
551.0 m ≈
2025
575.3 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
114.6 m
2024
131.7 m
2025
150.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
201.7 m
2024
214.7 m
2025
187.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
7.5 m
2024
-9.4 m
2025
6.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
194.1 m
2024
224.1 m
2025
181.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
3.22
2024
3.65
2025
2.94

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
60.4 m
2024
61.4 m
2025
61.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
2.56
2024
2.60
2025
2.64

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
9.2 m
2024
4.3 m
2025
8.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
212.3 m
2024
187.8 m
2025
209.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
114.5 m
2024
122.9 m
2025
132.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
407.0 m
2024
418.2 m
2025
503.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
6.0 bn
2024
6.4 bn
2025
6.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
357.6 m
2024
357.6 m
2025
367.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
7.6 bn
2024
8.0 bn
2025
8.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
124.3 m
2024
111.8 m
2025
129.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
0
2024
100.0 m
2025
150.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
2.7 bn
2024
2.7 bn
2025
3.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
534.9 m
2024
802.2 m
2025
697.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
4.8 bn
2024
5.1 bn
2025
5.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
2.8 bn †
2024
2.9 bn †
2025
2.9 bn †

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
489.2 m
2024
406.7 m
2025
394.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
566.9 m
2024
549.2 m
2025
524.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
-77.7 m ≈
2024
-142.5 m ≈
2025
-130.0 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-570.8 m
2024
-554.5 m
2025
-570.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
84.3 m
2024
151.6 m
2025
177.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
154.1 m
2024
158.6 m
2025
161.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
6.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
2.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT growth (YoY)
0.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
-19.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
-0.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
EPS growth (YoY)
-19.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
-3.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
34.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
18.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
10.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
-11.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
5.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
2.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
5.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROCE
3.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
96.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Balance sheet

Net debt
3.5 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
6.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Debt / equity
1.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Interest coverage
2.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
0.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
0.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash ratio
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
416.1 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
608.3 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
-192.2 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
-112.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion
72.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
35 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
5.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
8.6 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
29.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
29.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Earnings yield
3.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
1.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
3.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
14.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBIT
26.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/Sales
5.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/FCF
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF yield
-3.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
3.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
3.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

3 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Unattractive profile

Score: 24 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

score < 40 · (margin_of_safety <= -0.25 & agreement in ['high', 'medium'])

Closing price

82.00 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 5.0 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
5.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
29.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
1.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
14.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROE
5.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
10.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
6.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
3.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Coverage and freshness

30/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 24 Jul 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 30 Jul 2026
verified 603derived 36

Score by group

  • Balance sheet12
  • Valuation9
  • Quality32
  • Growth21
  • Returns54

Estimated value range

Low
42.85
USD per share
Mid
54.94
USD per share
High
59.23
USD per share
Price: 82.00 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -33.0% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -49.3% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: medium · 3 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 34.69 – 75.81 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Dividend discount (DDM)34.69 – 46.66 (Mid 39.79)
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA42.85 – 75.81 (Mid 62.71)
    10 companies used · median multiple 12.8x · quartiles 10.7x – 14.2x
    AEE, AVA, CMS, DUK, EVRG, EXC, LNT, NI, WEC, XEL
  • Peers: P/E50.53 – 59.23 (Mid 54.94)
    14 companies used · median multiple 19.8x · quartiles 18.2x – 21.4x
    AEE, AVA, CMS, DUK, ED, EVRG, EXC, GNE, LNT, NI, PEG, UTL, WEC, XEL
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Electric & Other Services Combined (SIC 4931)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Unattractive profile · Score 24/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality5.0%33 (vs peers)6%
Net margin · Quality10.1%31 (vs peers)6%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth2.9%49 (on a fixed band)6%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth-3.3%0 (on a fixed band)9%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet6.1x9 (vs peers)13%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet2.0x15 (on a fixed band)11%
Current ratio · Balance sheet0.8x16 (on a fixed band)4%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation29.6x0 (vs peers)13%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation14.9x20 (vs peers)11%
Dividend yield · Returns3.2%67 (vs peers)15%
Payout ratio (EPS) · Returns96.0%23 (on a fixed band)6%

Score groups

  • Balance sheet12/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth21/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality32/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Returns54/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation9/100 · 2/2 factors with a value

Memo

NORTHWESTERN ENERGY GROUP, INC. (NWE). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.6 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 6.4%; net margin 10.1%; ROE 5.9%; net debt/EBITDA 6.1x.

The estimated value range is 42.85–59.23 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 54.94 USD, the price of 82.00 USD leaves a potential of -33.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -49.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 24/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.

What contradicts it

  • EPS CAGR 3Y: -3.3%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: 6.1x
  • Interest coverage: 2.0x
  • Current ratio: 0.8x
  • P/E (TTM): 29.6x
  • EV/EBITDA: 14.9x
  • Payout ratio (EPS): 96.0%
  • The price is above the estimated value range

Versus the vertical median

Electric & Other Services Combined (SIC 4931) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 17 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
29.6x
vertical median 19.8x
above median (+49.7%)
EV/EBITDA
14.9x
vertical median 12.8x
above median (+16.0%)
P/S
3.0x
vertical median 2.9x
at median
P/B
1.7x
vertical median 2.1x
below median (−15.7%)
ROE
5.9%
vertical median 9.9%
below median (−40.2%)
Net margin
10.1%
vertical median 12.4%
below median (−18.2%)
EBIT margin
18.8%
vertical median 19.5%
at median
Revenue YoY
6.4%
vertical median 10.2%
below median (−37.6%)
Net debt/EBITDA
6.1x
vertical median 5.3x
above median (+16.0%)
Dividend yield
3.2%
vertical median 3.1%
at median

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
DUKDuke Energy CORP101.0 bn19.89.8%15.8%+5.6%+5% / +40%
XELXcel Energy Inc51.7 bn18.811.4%—+1.2%−2% / +32%
EXCExelon Corporation47.3 bn16.99.8%11.2%+5.3%−2% / +20%
EDConsolidated Edison Inc44.3 bn20.38.7%12.5%+10.9%+20% / +34%
WECWec Energy Group, Inc.38.9 bn21.412.5%17.6%+14.0%+5% / +41%
PEGPublic Service Enterprise Group Incorporated36.5 bn18.211.8%16.0%+18.3%−12% / +17%
PCGPg&E Corp35.9 bn9.69.7%12.3%+2.1%−17% / −22%
AEEAmeren Corp31.3 bn19.912.1%17.9%+15.4%+6% / +46%
CMSCms Energy Corp22.3 bn21.311.3%11.6%+13.6%−6% / +25%
NINiSource Inc.21.7 bn23.110.1%8.2%+23.5%+3% / +77%
EVRGEvergy, Inc.19.9 bn22.98.8%14.6%+2.0%+11% / +69%
LNTAlliant Energy Corp19.1 bn23.111.3%18.6%+9.6%+6% / +46%
NWENorthwestern Energy Group, Inc.5.0 bn29.65.9%10.1%+6.4%+35% / +58%
AVAAvista Corp3.4 bn13.59.0%12.8%+1.3%−3% / +18%
UTLUnitil Corporation1.0 bn18.39.0%9.1%+8.3%+13% / +17%
VIVOVivopower PLC46.7 m——-20,970.5%+281.3%−42% / −16%
GRDXGridAI Technologies Corp.38.7 m—-480.5%-56,864.0%unavailable+82% / −67%
GNEGenie Energy Ltd.—18.011.2%5.1%+18.1%+18% / −30%

1- and 3-year price returns: for NWE from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
47.97
Total return -39% · Per year -39%
84.86
Total return 7% · Per year 7%
127.92
Total return 60% · Per year 60%
3 years
45.07
Total return -38% · Per year -15%
89.87
Total return 20% · Per year 6%
148.95
Total return 95% · Per year 25%
5 years
42.36
Total return -36% · Per year -9%
95.18
Total return 34% · Per year 6%
173.44
Total return 135% · Per year 19%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 22.47
  • Net margin± 15.73
  • Annual revenue growth± 13.11
  • Annual dilution± 1.32

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

NorthWestern Energy supplies electricity and natural gas to a large customer base across Montana, South Dakota, Nebraska and Yellowstone National Park, playing an essential role in regional energy infrastructure. The company is in a transition period, shaped by its pending merger with Black Hills, rising demand tied to data centers and its shift toward carbon-free generation.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The company has a stable base of regulated customers, predictable rates and a reliability record that is typically in the first or second quartile compared with peers 1.
  • The portfolio includes carbon-free hydro resources and a high share of carbon-free energy, supporting the company's decarbonization goals 1.
  • A firm capital investment plan and rate base growth targets give a clear medium-term direction for the business 3.

Weaknesses

  • Cost recovery depends on commission decisions, and disallowances such as the one on YCGS could reduce revenue and affect liquidity 1.
  • Operating costs of the acquired Colstrip interests are not yet included in customer rates, which could create temporary pressure on results 2.
  • Reliance on subsidiary dividends and regulatory constraints may limit the financial flexibility of the parent company 1.

Opportunities

  • If agreements with data center developers become firm contracts, the added load could support further grid and generation investment 3.
  • The merger could bring operating synergies and greater scale, which could improve long-term access to capital 3.
  • Expanding carbon-free capacity and storage could reduce dependence on coal as technologies advance 1.

Threats

  • Changing greenhouse gas and environmental rules could impose significant compliance costs if they cannot be recovered through rates 1.
  • A delay in the Montana approval could postpone merger closing and increase transaction costs 3.
  • Fire, safety and cyber security risks could generate claims, penalties or service interruptions 1.

Risks

  • Cost recovery in Montanahigh

    The commission could find that some costs were not prudently incurred, reducing revenue and authorized returns, as happened with the partial disallowance of YCGS costs 2.

  • Black Hills mergermedium

    The transaction depends on Montana approval; if it is delayed or conditioned, closing could be postponed or changed, with effects on shareholders 3.

  • Environmental regulationmedium

    Rules on greenhouse gases and power plant standards could require extra investment or early retirement of coal units 1.

  • Weather and market exposuremedium

    Weather and price volatility in energy markets could affect load, generation and financial results, especially for purchased supply 1.

  • Financing and dilutionlow

    Higher interest rates or tighter capital markets could raise borrowing costs, and equity issuances needed for investment could dilute existing shareholders 3.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • A firm capital plan and a rate base growth target could support steady revenue growth over the medium term if regulation remains predictable.
  • Data center demand in Montana could add significant load, and dedicated tariffs could protect existing customers while producing additional revenue.
  • Joining a larger partner could create a company with better scale and diversification, which could improve access to capital.

What would break the thesis

  • Cost disallowances and the pending reconsideration in Montana could reduce returns and slow earnings growth.
  • Colstrip integration costs and merger expenses could weigh on near-term results if cost recovery through rates is delayed.
  • Decarbonization pressure and emissions rules could require costly investments or early retirement of assets.

What to watch

  • Final MPSC decision on merger approval2026
  • Outcome of the reconsideration request on YCGS2026
  • Closing of the Black Hills merger and the name of the combined companyyear-end 2026
  • Signing of electric service agreements with data center developers2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc., doing business as NorthWestern Energy, provides electricity and natural gas to approximately 850,300 customers in Montana, South Dakota, Nebraska and Yellowstone National Park 1. Montana and Yellowstone operations run through subsidiary NW Corp, while South Dakota and Nebraska operations run through NWE Public Service 1. The company operates principally in two segments: electric utility and natural gas utility operations 1.

The company targets net-zero Scope 1 and Scope 2 carbon and methane emissions by 2050, and in 2025 approximately 52 percent of its electric portfolio, from owned and long-term resources, was carbon-free 1. The acquisition of an additional 40 percent interest in Colstrip Units 3 and 4 on January 1, 2026 brought its total share to 814 MW, changing its supply structure 1.

In August 2025 NorthWestern agreed to an all-stock merger of equals with Black Hills Corporation, under which each NorthWestern share would convert into 0.98 Black Hills shares, and the combined parent would be named Bright Horizon Energy 1. By July 2026 the FERC, Nebraska and South Dakota approvals had been received, leaving Montana as the only remaining approval, with closing anticipated by year-end 2026 3.

Segments

Electric utility

The electric segment covers generation, purchase, transmission and distribution of electricity. In Montana the company delivered power to customers across 225 communities, and in South Dakota it served more than 65,600 customers in 118 communities 1. The generation fleet includes hydro facilities, Colstrip Units 3 and 4 and gas plants such as YCGS, completed in 2025 1.

Natural gas utility

The natural gas segment covers production, purchase, transmission, storage and distribution of gas. Demand depends heavily on weather because gas is mainly used for heating, and a significant share of revenue is recognized in the first and fourth quarters 1.

Market context

NorthWestern operates in a regulated market where rates are set by state utility commissions through rate reviews, based on an allowed return on invested capital 1. Electricity demand in the region is rising, and data center requests in Montana have reached an expected growth of up to approximately 1,500 MW by 2030 in the latest filing 3.

The market is seasonal: electricity consumption is higher in summer for cooling and in winter for heating, and weather directly affects operating performance 1. Participation in regional markets such as the Western Energy Imbalance Market and SPP gives the company access to economic energy 1.

Trends

  • Data center demandmixed

    Development agreements with several data center developers could add significant new load if they convert into firm electric service contracts, and the company has proposed a large-load tariff to prevent costs from shifting to other customers 3.

  • Merger with Black Hillsmixed

    The merger is advancing with all approvals except Montana received, and integration could bring synergies if the deal closes, while merger-related costs have weighed on recent quarterly results 3.

  • Energy transition and Colstripmixed

    The Colstrip acquisition could increase available capacity, but operating costs are not yet recovered through customer rates, and a temporary cost-recovery waiver was approved on an interim basis in Montana 2.

  • Regulation and cost recoveryheadwind

    The December 2025 Montana final order led to a 30.9 million USD non-cash charge for the YCGS disallowance, and the company filed for reconsideration, so any later changes could be reflected in 2026 results 2.

Competitive position

Direct competition comes mainly from other utilities in the served regions, where franchise areas limit rivalry but independent generators and renewable suppliers add pressure 1. Participants in regional markets such as SPP and EIM also compete on the price of energy sold 1.

The Black Hills merger reshapes the competitive landscape by creating a larger regional player with a more diversified capital and operating base, which could change its position relative to other operators in the region 3.

  • Black Hills CorporationBKH

    Merger partner in the all-stock deal, which would become the parent of the combined company.

  • Otter Tail Power Company

    Neighboring utility with interconnections into the South Dakota system, serving customers in the region.

  • Montana-Dakota Utilities Co.

    Regional grid operator with transmission links to the company's South Dakota system.

  • Xcel Energy Inc.

    Large regional utility interconnected with the company's South Dakota grid.

News & filings

In the press

SEC filings

  • Current report09 Sept 2026
    Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report30 Jul 2026
    Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report30 Jul 2026
  • Current report22 Jun 2026
    Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report02 Jun 2026
    Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report02 Jun 2026
    Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report27 May 2026
    Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report18 May 2026
    Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report05 May 2026
    Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report30 Apr 2026
    Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc. · 12 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc. · 30 Jul 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc. · 30 Jul 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.