olivLaw · US equity research
PROG Holdings, Inc. PRG
Services-Equipment Rental & Leasing, NEC · SIC 7359 · Vertical: Services-Equipment Rental & Leasing, NEC (SIC 7359)
PROG Holdings is a fintech holding company offering flexible payment options to consumers with limited or subprime credit, through Progressive Leasing (lease-to-own), Four (interest-free instalment payments) and, since January 2026, Purchasing Power (employee benefits). The company matters now because its fast-growing Four segment is advancing while the main Progressive Leasing segment faces pressure from the cost of living, according to its SEC filings. Progressive Leasing accounted for approximately 96% of consolidated revenues in 2025, and consolidated revenues were 2.4 billion USD in the same year.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, PROG Holdings, Inc. (PRG) stock was 38.86 USD (−2.58% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.5 bn USD, P/E 10.5 on diluted EPS of 3.71 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.42%, beta 1.08, 52-week range 26.18–47.53 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 725.8 m USD (+25.6% YoY), net income of 37.2 m USD (+12.4% YoY), diluted EPS 0.91 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 66.6
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 26.05 – 38.92
- in the upper half of the band · %B 1.00 · band width 39.6%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 33.95 / 35.79
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 1.23 / 0.04
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +24.2% | −5.9% | +30.2 pp | — |
| 3 months | −10.5% | −4.6% | −5.9 pp | — |
| 6 months | +8.8% | +0.2% | +8.6 pp | — |
| Year to date | +31.8% | +7.4% | +24.3 pp | — |
| 1 year | +36.4% | +8.2% | +28.1 pp | +26.0% |
| 3 years | +35.8% | +68.4% | −32.6 pp | +25.4% |
| 5 years | −16.8% | +56.5% | −73.4 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 558.9 m | 668.4 m | 588.5 m | 577.7 m | 574.6 m | 742.7 m | 719.7 m | 725.8 m |
| Cost of revenue | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 62.5 m | 75.7 m | 75.8 m |
| SG&A | 72.7 m | 92.1 m | 87.6 m | 89.6 m | 109.3 m | 132.2 m | 127.6 m | 125.5 m |
| Operating income | 50.0 m | 56.3 m | 59.3 m | 52.6 m | 38.5 m | 65.3 m | 65.6 m | 66.0 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 5.6 m | 6.0 m | 5.9 m | 6.0 m | 6.2 m | 14.2 m | 11.1 m | 10.3 m |
| Interest expense | 9.5 m | 10.0 m | 9.8 m | 9.8 m | 19.7 m | 18.4 m | 15.2 m | 14.2 m |
| Pre-tax income | 41.7 m | 47.3 m | 51.2 m | 44.7 m | 31.4 m | 47.6 m | 50.8 m | 52.3 m |
| Income tax | -15.9 m | 12.7 m | 13.6 m | 12.4 m | 11.5 m | 11.3 m | 13.4 m | 14.8 m |
| Net income | 57.5 m | 34.7 m | 38.5 m | 33.1 m | 40.5 m | 36.1 m | 37.0 m | 37.2 m |
| Diluted EPS | 1.34 ≈ | 0.83 | 0.95 | 0.82 | 1.00 ≈ | 0.89 | 0.91 | 0.91 |
| Operating cash flow | -84.5 m | 209.9 m | 69.9 m ≈ | 110.0 m ≈ | -54.9 m | 171.7 m | 106.2 m ≈ | 108.2 m ≈ |
| Capex | 2.3 m | 2.0 m | 1.9 m ≈ | 3.6 m ≈ | 2.6 m | 3.1 m | 5.0 m ≈ | 4.8 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 5.0 m | 5.3 m | 5.2 m ≈ | 5.2 m ≈ | 5.1 m | 5.6 m | 5.6 m ≈ | 5.5 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 40.5 m | 26.1 m | 25.7 m ≈ | 0 ≈ | 0 | 0 | 10.2 m ≈ | 36.7 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 63 percentile of its own 24-quarter history (min 5.4, median 9.8, max 118.1; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.0 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.4 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +6.2% | +14.9% | +7.8% | −3.0% | −9.9% | +2.6% | +0.4% |
| Net income | 196.2 m | 31.5 m | -61.5 m | 243.6 m | 98.7 m | 138.8 m | 197.2 m | 146.8 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −84.0% | −295.3% | unavailable | −59.5% | +40.7% | +42.1% | −25.6% |
| Diluted EPS | 2.78 | 0.47 | -0.90 | 3.67 | 1.90 | 2.98 | 4.53 | 3.59 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −83.1% | −291.5% | unavailable | −48.2% | +56.8% | +52.0% | −20.8% |
| net % | 9.6% | 1.5% | -2.5% | 9.1% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 6.1% |
| Free cash flow | 277.7 m | 224.2 m | 391.6 m | 236.4 m | 232.8 m | 194.6 m | 130.2 m | 324.9 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 308.8 m USD
- Financial debt
- 594.9 m USD
- Net debt
- 286.1 m USD
- Equity
- 746.4 m USD
- Total assets
- 1.6 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.80x
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 21.0%
- ROA
- 9.4%
- FCF margin
- 13.5%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.5 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| SG&A | — | — | 366.3 m | 340.6 m | 339.1 m | 378.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 271.8 m | 333.5 m | 185.6 m | 218.7 m | 194.7 m | 206.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | — | — | 33.9 m | 31.3 m | 26.3 m | 24.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | — | — | 219.5 m ≈ | 250.0 m ≈ | 221.1 m ≈ | 230.8 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 187.0 k | 5.3 m | 37.4 m | 39.5 m | 39.5 m | 49.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 271.6 m | 328.2 m | 148.2 m | 189.3 m | 163.4 m | 174.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 37.9 m | 84.6 m | 49.5 m | 55.4 m | -33.9 m | 50.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | -61.5 m | 243.6 m | 98.7 m | 138.8 m | 197.2 m | 146.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.90 | 3.67 | 1.90 | 2.98 | 4.53 | 3.59 | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 68.0 m | 66.4 m | 52.1 m | 46.6 m | 43.5 m | 40.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.17 | — | — | — | 0.48 | 0.52 | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 36.6 m | 170.2 m | 131.9 m | 155.4 m | 90.9 m | 308.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | — | — | — | — | — | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 26.7 m | 25.6 m | 23.9 m | 24.1 m | 20.0 m | 19.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 288.8 m | 306.2 m | 296.1 m | 296.1 m | 296.1 m | 296.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 154.4 m | 137.3 m | 114.4 m | 91.7 m | 73.8 m | 57.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 1.3 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 50.0 m | 589.7 m | 591.0 m | 592.3 m | 643.6 m | 594.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 331.3 m | 942.4 m | 921.4 m | 899.9 m | 863.5 m | 864.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 986.1 m † | 679.4 m † | 570.5 m † | 591.3 m † | 650.3 m † | 746.4 m † | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 456.0 m | 246.0 m | 242.5 m | 204.2 m | 138.5 m | 335.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 64.3 m | 9.6 m | 9.7 m | 9.6 m | 8.3 m | 10.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 391.6 m ≈ | 236.4 m ≈ | 232.8 m ≈ | 194.6 m ≈ | 130.2 m ≈ | 324.9 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -114.5 m | -82.2 m | -53.5 m | -38.8 m | -79.2 m | 6.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -362.6 m | -30.3 m | -227.2 m | -141.9 m | -119.1 m | -128.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 13.8 m | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20.4 m | 20.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 142.4 m | 223.6 m | 139.6 m | 138.7 m | 51.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 67 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 1.5 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Growth50
- Returns79
- Balance sheet49
- Valuation74
- Quality79
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 28.21 – 219.78 USD.
Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)114.13 – 219.78 (Mid 151.14)WACC 7.5% · starting FCFF 364.2 m USD · terminal value share of EV 78%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
- Peers: EV/EBITDA37.36 – 41.37 (Mid 40.77)3 companies used · median multiple 8.5x · quartiles 8.0x – 8.6xCTOS, SUNB, TRTN-PA
- Peers: P/E28.21 – 75.40 (Mid 56.60)8 companies used · median multiple 15.3x · quartiles 7.6x – 20.3xAER, EQPT, KPLT, MGRC, SUNB, TRTN-PA, UPBD, URI
- Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate6.83 – 9.19 (Mid 7.84)a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 67/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 10.8% | 83 (vs peers) | 11% |
| Net margin · Quality | 5.5% | 50 (vs peers) | 7% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 209.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -2.5% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 23.6% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 2.7x | 60 (vs peers) | 11% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 3.5x | 31 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 10.5x | 67 (vs peers) | 11% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 8.2x | 60 (vs peers) | 11% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 20.8% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 4.5% | 65 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 6.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet49/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth50/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality79/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns79/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation74/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
Memo
PROG HOLDINGS, INC. (PRG). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.4 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 0.4%; net margin 5.5%; ROE 20.0%; net debt/EBITDA 2.7x.
The estimated value range is 37.36–75.40 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 56.60 USD, the price of 38.86 USD leaves a potential of 45.6% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 31.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 67/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 10.8%
- FCF conversion: 209.3%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 23.6%
- FCF yield: 20.8%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 6.9%
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -2.5%
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Current ratio.
Versus the vertical median
Services-Equipment Rental & Leasing, NEC (SIC 7359) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 10 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| URIUnited Rentals, Inc. | 64.6 bn | 22.6 | 30.6% | 16.3% | +4.9% | +28% / +119% |
| SUNBSunbelt Rentals Holdings, Inc. | 31.2 bn | 22.4 | 18.2% | 12.1% | +3.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AERAerCap Holdings N.V. | 27.7 bn | 7.8 | 21.1% | 44.0% | +6.5% | +24% / +144% |
| MGRCMcGRATH RENTCORP | 3.1 bn | 19.6 | 12.9% | 16.8% | +3.7% | +24% / +25% |
| TRTN-PATriton International Limited | 2.5 bn | 4.9 | 18.8% | 854.3% | +22.4% | −6% / −5% |
| CTOSCustom Truck One Source, Inc. | 2.1 bn | 70.4 | 3.7% | 1.4% | +7.9% | +46% / +60% |
| PRGProg Holdings, Inc. | 1.5 bn | 10.5 | 20.0% | 5.5% | +0.4% | +36% / +36% |
| UPBDUpbound Group, Inc. | 1.5 bn | 13.1 | 15.5% | 2.4% | +8.7% | +39% / −15% |
| EQPTEquipmentShare.com Inc | 1.1 bn | 17.4 | 7.4% | 1.3% | +16.3% | unavailable / unavailable |
| KPLTKatapult Holdings, Inc. | 49.1 m | 7.0 | — | 5.4% | +18.0% | +59% / −10% |
| EHGOEShallGo Inc. | — | — | -117.3% | -69.4% | +21.1% | −66% / unavailable |
1- and 3-year price returns: for PRG from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 22.28 Total return -42% · Per year -42% | 39.53 Total return 3% · Per year 3% | 59.73 Total return 55% · Per year 55% |
| 3 years | 18.69 Total return -49% · Per year -20% | 37.59 Total return 1% · Per year 0% | 62.78 Total return 67% · Per year 19% |
| 5 years | 15.69 Total return -55% · Per year -15% | 35.75 Total return -1% · Per year -0% | 65.98 Total return 79% · Per year 12% |
- Exit P/E± 9.40
- Net margin± 6.58
- Annual revenue growth± 5.79
- Annual dilution± 0.55
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 30 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (28 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (28 Oct 2026).
In brief
PROG Holdings is a fintech holding company offering flexible payment options to consumers with limited or subprime credit, through Progressive Leasing (lease-to-own), Four (interest-free instalment payments) and, since January 2026, Purchasing Power (employee benefits). The company matters now because its fast-growing Four segment is advancing while the main Progressive Leasing segment faces pressure from the cost of living, according to its SEC filings. Progressive Leasing accounted for approximately 96% of consolidated revenues in 2025 1, and consolidated revenues were 2.4 billion USD in the same year 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- A broad network of POS partners and a proprietary decisioning platform integrated with merchants' systems 1. A product mix spanning leasing, BNPL and employee benefits diversifies revenue 12.
- Rapid growth at Four, with consecutive quarters of GMV growth, supports diversification away from the core segment 3.
- Debt was reduced after the acquisition, and the company resumed share repurchases in the second quarter of 2026 3.
Weaknesses
- Reliance on a small number of POS partners, where three partners generate a major share of revenue 1.
- The core segment is exposed to lower-income customers, raising the risk of payment delays and write-offs 12.
- The Purchasing Power acquisition adds non-recourse debt and operational complexity in the period right after closing 2.
Opportunities
Risks
- Concentration on a few retail partnershigh
Losing a major partner could materially affect revenue and prospects in the core segment 1.
- Credit risk in the subprime segmenthigh
Customers with limited credit may fall behind on payments, which led to higher provisioning in the second quarter of 2026 2.
- Regulation and state investigationsmedium
Authorities' attention to lease-to-own and BNPL could lead to compliance costs and penalties 1.
- Integration of Purchasing Powermedium
The acquisition adds debt and integration risks that could affect results in the coming quarters 12.
- Reliance on decisioning algorithmsmedium
If decision models no longer reflect customer behaviour in an uncertain economy, reserves could prove insufficient 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
What to watch
- Trend in lease merchandise write-off provisions relative to leasing revenuesQ3 2026
- Whether the revised 2026 guidance for consolidated revenue and adjusted EBITDA is met2026
- Purchasing Power contribution to revenue and adjusted EBITDA after integrationQ3 2026
- Outcome of the state attorneys general inquiry into the BNPL industry and its effect on Fournext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 30 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (28 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (28 Oct 2026).
The business
PROG Holdings, Inc. describes itself as a financial technology holding company that provides transparent and competitive payment options to consumers 1. The Progressive Leasing segment offers lease-to-own solutions in stores, through apps and in e-commerce, via approximately 24,000 POS partner locations in 45 states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico 1. The company has no stores of its own; it buys the merchandise customers want from partners and leases it to them through a cancellable lease-to-own transaction 1. In January 2026 it acquired Purchasing Power, an employee benefits program, adding a third reportable segment 2.
Market context
The company serves consumers with near-prime or subprime credit profiles who struggle to buy durable and big-ticket goods 1. Demand in this segment appears sensitive to the cost of living, interest rates and consumer confidence, according to the filings 2. The regulatory climate is tightening: in December 2025 attorneys general from seven states opened a coordinated inquiry into the BNPL industry 1.
Trends
- Cost of living and consumer pressureheadwind
Customers face high housing, food and other nondiscretionary costs, which reduce disposable income and payment performance 1. In 2026 the company noted that the war in Iran amplified inflation and reduced demand for durable goods 2.
- Growth in instalment BNPL paymentstailwind
Consumers are adopting interest-free instalment payments more widely, and Four benefits directly from this shift 1. Smaller Four ticket sizes make it less exposed to pressure on larger goods 1.
- Stricter regulation of subprime creditheadwind
Federal and state authorities have expanded their focus on alternative consumer financial products, which could raise compliance costs and penalties 1. Compliance costs could increase if these efforts intensify.
- Ecosystem diversification through acquisitionmixed
The Purchasing Power acquisition and expansion into employee benefits add customers and cross-selling opportunities 12. If integration succeeds, the company could reduce its reliance on a single segment.
Competitive position
The reviewed filings do not explicitly name competitors, beyond references to other BNPL providers targeted by state attorneys general investigations 1. Direct competition includes other lease-to-own and instalment payment providers offering similar products through comparable retail partners 1. The company says it offers alternatives that are generally lower cost than many other options in the market 1.
- Other BNPL instalment providers
The six BNPL providers targeted by the state inquiry are not named in the source; competition in the Four segment is described only generically 1.
- Other lease-to-own companies
Competition for the same retail partners and customers, described generically in the sources 1.
- Traditional retailers with in-house financing
Retailers offering their own credit options compete with the company's leasing service for the same customers 1.
- Employee benefits purchasing platforms
Competition for Purchasing Power comes from other payroll-deduction purchasing platforms, not named in the documents 2.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report05 Nov 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report02 Nov 2026Other events
- Quarterly report28 Oct 2026
- Current report28 Oct 2026Results of operations · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report05 Aug 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report30 Jul 2026
- Current report29 Jul 2026Results of operations · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report07 May 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Shareholder vote · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report29 Apr 2026
- Current report29 Apr 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / PROG Holdings, Inc. · 18 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / PROG Holdings, Inc. · 30 Jul 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / PROG Holdings, Inc. · 29 Jul 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.