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olivLaw · US equity research

Phillips 66 PSX

Petroleum Refining · SIC 2911 · Vertical: Petroleum Refining (SIC 2911)

259.63USD−4.53% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Phillips 66 is an integrated downstream energy company operating in Midstream, Chemicals, Refining, Marketing and Specialties, and Renewable Fuels. It reported earnings of 3.8 billion dollars in the second quarter of 2026 and keeps reducing debt, which matters now for investors and for its financial flexibility.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Phillips 66 (PSX) stock was 259.63 USD (−4.53% on the day), with market capitalisation 101.3 bn USD, P/E 8.3 on diluted EPS of 31.25 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.93%, beta 0.64, 52-week range 127.75–297.29 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 50.5 bn USD (+46.4% YoY), net income of 5.6 bn USD (+4,122.6% YoY), diluted EPS 14.08 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
101.3 bn USD
shares as of 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
8.3
Diluted EPS TTM 31.25 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
12.04%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
1.93%
DPS 12m 5.01
Beta (2y)
0.64
Volatility (1y) 33%
52-week range
127.75297.29

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
39.8
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
263.48 – 301.25
below the lower band · %B -0.10 · band width 13.4%
SMA 50 / 200
267.95 / 200.86
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
0.86 / 4.44
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−3.7%−1.1%−2.6 pp—
3 months+28.2%−0.5%+28.6 pp—
6 months+51.2%+4.4%+46.8 pp—
Year to date+101.2%+12.3%+88.9 pp—
1 year+91.3%+13.5%+77.7 pp+54.4%
3 years+122.3%+76.4%+45.9 pp+126.3%
5 years+233.8%+63.7%+170.2 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−17.3%
27 Mar 2026 → 20 Apr 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−46.2%
03 Apr 2024 → 08 Apr 2025
Compound annual growth (5y)
+27.3%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
50.5 bn USD
+46.4% YoY
Net income
5.6 bn USD
+4,122.6% YoY
Diluted EPS
14.08
+4,300.0% YoY
net / operating
11.1% / unavailable

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue33.7 bn30.4 bn33.3 bn34.5 bn34.1 bn32.5 bn51.0 bn50.5 bn
Cost of revenue30.8 bn27.7 bn29.1 bn30.2 bn29.1 bn29.2 bn43.7 bn40.8 bn
SG&A511.0 m519.0 m582.0 m792.0 m544.0 m537.0 m538.0 m625.0 m
Depreciation & amortisation819.0 m791.0 m816.0 m826.0 m818.0 m558.0 m585.0 m591.0 m
Interest expense220.0 m221.0 m264.0 m259.0 m295.0 m286.0 m314.0 m243.0 m
Income tax-38.0 m122.0 m212.0 m32.0 m526.0 m41.0 m1.1 bn1.5 bn
Net income8.0 m487.0 m877.0 m133.0 m2.9 bn207.0 m3.8 bn5.6 bn
Diluted EPS0.02 ≈1.182.150.327.11 ≈0.519.5514.08
Operating cash flow1.2 bn187.0 m845.0 m ≈1.2 bn ≈2.8 bn-2.3 bn7.3 bn ≈7.3 bn ≈
Dividends paid472.0 m469.0 m487.0 m ≈484.0 m ≈482.0 m509.0 m508.0 m ≈504.0 m ≈
Share repurchases647.0 m247.0 m419.0 m ≈267.0 m ≈274.0 m269.0 m379.0 m ≈2.3 bn ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 24 percentile of its own 38-quarter history (min 3.7, median 12.1, max 78.9; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue111.5 bn107.3 bn64.1 bn111.5 bn170.0 bn147.4 bn143.2 bn132.4 bn
Revenue YoY+8.9%−3.7%−40.2%+73.8%+52.5%−13.3%−2.9%−7.5%
Net income5.6 bn3.1 bn-4.0 bn1.3 bn11.0 bn7.0 bn2.1 bn4.4 bn
Net income YoY+9.6%−45.0%−229.2%unavailable+737.1%−36.4%−69.8%+108.0%
Diluted EPS11.806.77-9.062.9723.2715.484.9910.79
Diluted EPS YoY+19.8%−42.6%−233.8%unavailable+683.5%−33.5%−67.8%+116.2%
net %5.0%2.9%-6.2%1.2%6.5%4.8%1.5%3.3%
Free cash flowunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
1.1 bn USD
Financial debt
1.0 bn USD
Net debt
-78.0 m USD
Equity
30.2 bn USD
Total assets
73.7 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.03x
Current ratio
1.30x
ROE
15.0%
ROA
6.0%
FCF margin
unavailable

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
147.4 bn
2024
143.2 bn
2025
132.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
128.1 bn
2024
130.0 bn
2025
116.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
19.3 bn ≈
2024
13.2 bn ≈
2025
16.3 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026derived

Research & development
2023
27.0 m
2024
15.0 m
2025
6.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

SG&A
2023
2.5 bn
2024
2.8 bn
2025
2.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
2.0 bn
2024
2.4 bn
2025
3.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Interest expense
2023
897.0 m
2024
907.0 m
2025
997.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2021verified

Income tax
2023
2.2 bn
2024
500.0 m
2025
892.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
7.0 bn
2024
2.1 bn
2025
4.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
15.48
2024
4.99
2025
10.79

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
453.2 m
2024
421.9 m
2025
408.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
4.20
2024
4.50
2025
4.75

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
3.3 bn
2024
1.7 bn
2025
1.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
11.7 bn
2024
11.0 bn
2025
9.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
3.8 bn
2024
4.0 bn
2025
5.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
19.9 bn
2024
17.9 bn
2025
17.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
1.6 bn
2024
1.6 bn
2025
1.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
920.0 m
2024
1.2 bn
2025
978.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
75.5 bn
2024
72.6 bn
2025
73.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 22 Feb 2023verified

Short-term debt
2023
1.5 bn
2024
1.8 bn
2025
1.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
15.9 bn
2024
15.1 bn
2025
13.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
43.9 bn
2024
44.1 bn
2025
43.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
31.7 bn
2024
28.5 bn
2025
30.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
7.0 bn
2024
4.2 bn
2025
5.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Investing cash flow
2023
-1.8 bn
2024
-2.5 bn
2025
-2.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-8.1 bn
2024
-3.3 bn
2025
-3.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
1.9 bn
2024
1.9 bn
2025
1.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
4.0 bn
2024
3.5 bn
2025
1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
-7.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
-8.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
15.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing
Net income growth (YoY)
108.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
-26.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
116.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
-22.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing

Profitability

Gross margin
15.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBITDA margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT margin
unavailable
input data missing
Net margin
7.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
unavailable
input data missing

Returns

ROE
41.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
15.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
unavailable
input data missing
ROCE
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (EPS)
16.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
-4.8 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Interest coverage
unavailable
input data missing

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
1.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash ratio
0.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
15.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
unavailable
input data missing
Free cash flow
unavailable
input data missing
FCF conversion
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion
unavailable
input data missing

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
26 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days inventory outstanding
16 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
101.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
96.5 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
8.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
8.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
12.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
2.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
0.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
0.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/FCF
unavailable
input data missing
FCF yield
unavailable
input data missing
Dividend yield
1.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
5.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Risk

Altman Z
unavailable
input data missing

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

259.63 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 101.3 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
101.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
8.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
2.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
41.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
7.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
-7.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
1.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Coverage and freshness

30/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 30 Sept 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 28 Oct 2026
verified 2300derived 162

Score by group

44% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

Low
252.36
USD per share
Mid
411.37
USD per share
High
587.24
USD per share
Price: 259.63 USD
The price is within the range
Potential to the central value: 58.4% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 36.9% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: single method · 1 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 252.36 – 587.24 USD.

Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: P/E252.36 – 587.24 (Mid 411.37)
    4 companies used · median multiple 13.2x · quartiles 8.1x – 18.8x
    COP, CVX, MPC, VLO
  • Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate62.42 – 83.94 (Mid 71.60)
    a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Petroleum Refining (SIC 2911)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality7.5%0 (vs peers)14%
FCF conversion · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth-8.0%0 (on a fixed band)19%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth-22.6%0 (on a fixed band)19%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.3x45 (on a fixed band)10%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation8.3x99 (on a fixed band)24%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns5.1%73 (on a fixed band)14%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet· partial45/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Growth0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial73/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation· partial99/100 · 1/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

Phillips 66 (PSX). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 132.4 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -7.5%; net margin 7.5%; ROE 41.1%.

The estimated value range is 252.36–587.24 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 411.37 USD, the price of 259.63 USD leaves a potential of 58.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 36.9% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • P/E (TTM): 8.3x
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 5.1%

What contradicts it

  • Net margin: 7.5%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: -8.0%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: -22.6%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Petroleum Refining (SIC 2911) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 5 companies

Only companies with a capitalisation between 14.2 bn and 908.6 bn (within 8× of the company's); 12 of the vertical were left out.

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
8.3x
vertical median 13.2x
below median (−36.9%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median —
P/S
0.6x
vertical median 1.3x
below median (−54.7%)
P/B
2.9x
vertical median 3.1x
at median
ROE
41.1%
vertical median 25.2%
above median (+62.7%)
Net margin
7.5%
vertical median 9.6%
below median (−21.8%)
EBIT margin
—
vertical median —
Revenue YoY
-7.5%
vertical median -5.5%
below median
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median —
Dividend yield
1.9%
vertical median 1.9%
at median

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
CVXChevron Corp428.7 bn20.812.2%9.6%−6.8%+44% / +51%
COPConocoPhillips164.5 bn18.114.2%14.7%+7.7%+54% / +18%
MPCMarathon Petroleum Corporation106.9 bn7.772.6%8.4%−4.4%+103% / +163%
VLOValero Energy Corp101.9 bn8.250.1%8.4%−5.5%+107% / +191%
PSXPhillips 66101.3 bn8.341.1%7.5%−7.5%+91% / +122%
IMOImperial Oil Limited——25.2%10.9%−8.6%+29% / +126%

1- and 3-year price returns: for PSX from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
143.20
Total return -43% · Per year -43%
254.44
Total return -0% · Per year -0%
385.01
Total return 51% · Per year 51%
3 years
113.70
Total return -52% · Per year -22%
229.63
Total return -6% · Per year -2%
385.01
Total return 55% · Per year 16%
5 years
90.29
Total return -60% · Per year -17%
207.24
Total return -12% · Per year -2%
385.01
Total return 60% · Per year 10%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 57.41
  • Net margin± 40.19
  • Annual revenue growth± 36.29
  • Annual dilution± 3.38

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (28 Oct 2026), 8-K (28 Oct 2026 · results).

In brief

Phillips 66 is an integrated downstream energy company operating in Midstream, Chemicals, Refining, Marketing and Specialties, and Renewable Fuels. It reported earnings of 3.8 billion dollars in the second quarter of 2026 and keeps reducing debt, which matters now for investors and for its financial flexibility 23.

SWOT

Strengths

  • An integrated operation across the value chain, from transport to retail, which provides more stability.
  • High refinery utilization and a strong clean product yield in the recent quarter.
  • Rapid debt reduction and a policy of returning capital to shareholders.

Weaknesses

  • Margins are cyclical and depend on factors outside the company's control.
  • Losses in certain segments, such as Refining and Renewable Fuels, in earlier periods.
  • Dependence on buying all feedstocks, since the company produces no crude oil itself.

Opportunities

  • Expansion of the Midstream and NGL businesses, where the company targets organic growth.
  • Completion of the Chemicals projects in 2027 could add new volumes.
  • Full integration of WRB Refining could strengthen the position in the Central Corridor region.

Threats

  • Geopolitical conflicts can cause severe volatility in energy prices.
  • Changes in renewable fuel policy could reduce the revenues of the dedicated segment.
  • Oversupply in the chemical industry could compress margins for plastics products.

Risks

  • Margin cyclicalityhigh

    The spread between product and feedstock prices is volatile and could significantly reduce profits and cash flow.

  • Operational interruptionsmedium

    Planned and unplanned shutdowns, incidents and weather could affect production and deliveries.

  • Reliance on third-party transportmedium

    Disruptions in transporting crude and products could cause supply shortfalls or added costs.

  • Renewable fuel policymedium

    Changes to rules and incentives for renewable fuels could negatively affect that segment.

  • Joint venture riskslow

    Partners may have different interests, and the company could be required to meet obligations alone.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If refining margins stay high and the company keeps reducing debt, cash flow could support dividends and share buybacks.
  • The Midstream segment, with largely fee-based revenue, could provide stability during periods of volatility.
  • Completion of petrochemical projects and refinery integration could open new sources of growth.

What would break the thesis

  • If energy prices fall or margins narrow, results could return to weak levels, as has happened in the past.
  • The Renewable Fuels segment depends on public policies that can change, adding uncertainty.
  • Oversupply in petrochemicals could keep margins under pressure for an extended period.

What to watch

  • Trend in realized refining margin and capacity utilizationQ3 2026
  • Progress on debt reduction toward the end-2027 target2027
  • Completion of the CPChem Golden Triangle and Ras Laffan projects2027
  • Regulatory changes on renewable fuels disclosed in the next annual reportnext 10-K

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (28 Oct 2026), 8-K (28 Oct 2026 · results).

The business

Phillips 66 converts crude oil, natural gas liquids and renewable feedstocks into refined, petrochemical, plastics and renewable fuel products and markets them. Total assets were 73.7 billion dollars at December 31, 2025 and 81.8 billion dollars at June 30, 2026 12. The company aims to grow its Midstream and Chemicals businesses through disciplined investment and full integration of its natural gas liquids value chain 1.

The company organizes its work into five segments, from gas transport and processing to refining and retail sales. The Chemicals segment consists of a 50 percent equity stake in Chevron Phillips Chemical Company LLC, and in 2025 the company completed the acquisition of the remaining interest in WRB Refining LP 13.

The strategy through the end of 2027 emphasizes world-class operations, disciplined growth, financial strength and shareholder returns. The company targets returning more than half of operating cash flow, excluding working capital, to shareholders 12.

Segments

Refining

The Refining segment is driven by crack spreads, refinery throughput and product yields. Crude capacity utilization was 96 percent in the second quarter of 2026 3.

Chemicals

The Chemicals segment is the 50 percent stake in CPChem, where margins depend on supply, demand and costs. The Golden Triangle Polymers and Ras Laffan projects are expected to be fully operational in 2027 3.

Market context

Refining margins rose in 2025, with the composite 3:2:1 crack spread averaging 20.42 dollars per barrel on stronger diesel demand. In the second quarter of 2026 the realized refining margin reached 24.08 dollars per barrel 13.

Trends

  • Commodity price volatilitymixed

    Margins are cyclical and depend on crude, gas and NGL prices, which are shaped by OPEC decisions and geopolitical conflicts. If disruptions persist, results could continue to be affected 12.

  • Debt reductiontailwind

    The company has cut its debt substantially and aims to reduce it further, which could strengthen its financial flexibility 23.

  • Renewable fuel policyheadwind

    Regulatory changes to renewable fuel standards and tax credits could alter the results of the Renewable Fuels segment 1.

Competitive position

The company competes in refining, petrochemicals and distribution with other large integrated energy players, where margins depend on supply and demand. Competition is intense in Chemicals, where products are commodities and differentiation is limited 1.

  • Chevron Phillips Chemical Company LLC

    A joint venture in the Chemicals segment in which the company holds a 50 percent stake; it also competes in petrochemical markets.

  • Integrated refining operators

    Other integrated energy companies compete for the same refining and distribution markets.

  • Petrochemical and plastics producers

    Producers of polyethylene and other plastics compete in the same commodity markets.

  • Renewable fuel producers

    Other renewable fuel producers compete for feedstocks and for regulatory credits.

News & filings

In the press

The latest news item in our archive is from 23 Oct 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 28 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Phillips 66 · 20 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Phillips 66 · 05 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Phillips 66 · 05 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.