olivLaw · US equity research
Valero Energy Corporation VLO
Petroleum Refining · SIC 2911 · Vertical: Petroleum Refining (SIC 2911)
Valero Energy Corporation is a refiner and marketer of liquid transportation fuels and petrochemical products, with assets in the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom. In the third quarter of 2026 it reported net income attributable to stockholders of $6.8 billion, supported by the Refining segment, which posted operating income of $8.8 billion. The company remains exposed to margin volatility, feedstock prices and policies on low-carbon fuels.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) stock was 365.34 USD (−5.76% on the day), with market capitalisation 101.9 bn USD, P/E 8.2 on diluted EPS of 44.51 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.29%, beta 0.53, 52-week range 161.94–459.78 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 46.1 bn USD (+43.3% YoY), net income of 6.8 bn USD (+523.6% YoY), diluted EPS 23.89 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 35.7
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 364.53 – 474.36
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.01 · band width 26.2%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 399.59 / 288.62
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -6.69 / 1.56
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −12.9% | −1.1% | −11.8 pp | — |
| 3 months | +20.8% | −0.5% | +21.3 pp | — |
| 6 months | +54.4% | +4.4% | +50.0 pp | — |
| Year to date | +124.4% | +12.3% | +112.1 pp | — |
| 1 year | +116.0% | +13.5% | +102.5 pp | +54.4% |
| 3 years | +189.0% | +76.4% | +112.6 pp | +101.4% |
| 5 years | +368.9% | +63.7% | +305.2 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 30.8 bn | 30.3 bn | 29.9 bn | 32.2 bn | 30.4 bn | 32.4 bn | 44.5 bn | 46.1 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 30.1 bn | 29.8 bn | 28.6 bn | 30.4 bn | 28.5 bn | 30.3 bn | 39.0 bn | 36.7 bn |
| Operating income | 348.0 m | -900.0 m | 997.0 m | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | 5.2 bn | 9.1 bn |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 11.0 m | 11.0 m | 28.0 m | 12.0 m | 12.0 m | 12.0 m | 14.0 m | 15.0 m |
| Interest expense | 135.0 m | 137.0 m | 141.0 m | 139.0 m | 139.0 m | 140.0 m | 145.0 m | 144.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | 323.0 m | -917.0 m | 942.0 m | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.7 bn | 5.2 bn | 9.1 bn |
| Income tax | -34.0 m | -265.0 m | 279.0 m | 390.0 m | 355.0 m | 401.0 m | 1.1 bn | 2.1 bn |
| Net income | 281.0 m | -595.0 m | 714.0 m | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn | 3.7 bn | 6.8 bn |
| Diluted EPS | 0.89 ≈ | -1.90 | 2.28 | 3.53 | 3.78 ≈ | 4.22 | 12.62 | 23.89 |
| Operating cash flow | 1.1 bn | 952.0 m | 936.0 m ≈ | 1.9 bn ≈ | 2.1 bn | 1.4 bn | 5.6 bn ≈ | 6.9 bn ≈ |
| Capex | 547.0 m | 659.0 m | 407.0 m | 409.0 m | — | — | — | — |
| Dividends paid | 339.0 m | 356.0 m | 354.0 m ≈ | 351.0 m ≈ | 344.0 m | 359.0 m | 355.0 m ≈ | 345.0 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 259.0 m | 274.0 m | 338.0 m ≈ | 922.0 m ≈ | 1.1 bn | 573.0 m | 2.3 bn ≈ | 3.4 bn ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 18 percentile of its own 39-quarter history (min 4.0, median 11.2, max 55.8; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 117.0 bn | 108.3 bn | 64.9 bn | 114.0 bn | 176.4 bn | 144.8 bn | 129.9 bn | 122.7 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +24.5% | −7.4% | −40.1% | +75.6% | +54.8% | −17.9% | −10.3% | −5.5% |
| Net income | 3.1 bn | 2.4 bn | -1.4 bn | 930.0 m | 11.5 bn | 8.8 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.3 bn |
| Net income YoY | −23.2% | −22.4% | −158.7% | unavailable | +1,139.6% | −23.4% | −68.6% | −15.2% |
| Diluted EPS | 7.29 | 5.84 | -3.50 | 2.27 | 29.04 | 24.92 | 8.58 | 7.57 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −20.4% | −19.9% | −159.9% | unavailable | +1,179.3% | −14.2% | −65.6% | −11.8% |
| net % | 2.7% | 2.2% | -2.2% | 0.8% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 2.1% | 1.9% |
| Free cash flow | 995.0 m | 2.7 bn | -1.5 bn | 3.4 bn | 9.8 bn | 7.3 bn | 4.6 bn | unavailable |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 4.7 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 9.2 bn USD
- Net debt
- 4.5 bn USD
- Equity
- 26.6 bn USD
- Total assets
- 58.0 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.35x
- Current ratio
- 1.65x
- ROE
- 8.7%
- ROA
- 4.0%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 64.9 bn | 114.0 bn | 176.4 bn | 144.8 bn | 129.9 bn | 122.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 65.7 bn | 110.8 bn | 159.6 bn | 131.8 bn | 125.1 bn | 117.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | -740.0 m ≈ | 3.1 bn ≈ | 16.8 bn ≈ | 12.9 bn ≈ | 4.8 bn ≈ | 5.4 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived |
| Operating income | -1.6 bn | 2.1 bn | 15.7 bn | 11.9 bn | 3.8 bn | 3.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 48.0 m | 47.0 m | 45.0 m | 43.0 m | 45.0 m | 63.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | -1.5 bn ≈ | 2.2 bn ≈ | 15.7 bn ≈ | 11.9 bn ≈ | 3.8 bn ≈ | 3.2 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 563.0 m | 603.0 m | 562.0 m | 592.0 m | 556.0 m | 556.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -2.0 bn | 1.5 bn | 15.3 bn | 11.8 bn | 3.7 bn | 3.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | -903.0 m | 255.0 m | 3.4 bn | 2.6 bn | 692.0 m | 759.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | -1.4 bn | 930.0 m | 11.5 bn | 8.8 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -3.50 | 2.27 | 29.04 | 24.92 | 8.58 | 7.57 | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 407.0 m | 407.0 m | 396.0 m | 353.0 m | 322.0 m | 309.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 3.92 | 3.92 | 3.92 | 4.08 | 4.28 | 4.52 | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 3.3 bn | 4.1 bn | 4.9 bn | 5.4 bn | 4.7 bn | 4.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 4.8 bn | 10.0 bn | 10.8 bn | 11.0 bn | 9.7 bn | 9.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 6.0 bn | 6.3 bn | 6.8 bn | 7.6 bn | 7.8 bn | 7.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 15.8 bn | 21.2 bn | 24.1 bn | 26.2 bn | 23.7 bn | 23.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 260.0 m | 260.0 m | 260.0 m | 260.0 m | 260.0 m | 260.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 248.0 m | 218.0 m | 202.0 m | 183.0 m | 151.0 m | 123.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 51.8 bn | 57.9 bn | 61.0 bn | 63.1 bn | 60.1 bn | 58.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 6.1 bn | 12.5 bn | 12.7 bn | 12.6 bn | 12.1 bn | 10.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 723.0 m | 1.3 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.4 bn | 743.0 m | 949.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 13.0 bn | 12.0 bn | 9.2 bn | 9.2 bn | 8.1 bn | 8.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 9.3 bn | 16.9 bn | 17.5 bn | 16.8 bn | 15.5 bn | 14.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 19.6 bn | 19.8 bn | 25.5 bn | 28.5 bn | 27.5 bn | 26.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 948.0 m | 5.9 bn | 12.6 bn | 9.2 bn | 6.7 bn | 5.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 2.4 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.7 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.1 bn | — | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2025verified |
| Free cash flow | -1.5 bn ≈ | 3.4 bn ≈ | 9.8 bn ≈ | 7.3 bn ≈ | 4.6 bn ≈ | — | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2025derived |
| Investing cash flow | -2.4 bn | -2.2 bn | -2.8 bn | -1.9 bn | -2.0 bn | -1.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 2.1 bn | -2.8 bn | -8.8 bn | -6.9 bn | -5.0 bn | -4.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 156.0 m | 27.0 m | 4.6 bn | 5.1 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 77 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
score >= 65 · margin_of_safety >= 0.15 · agreement in ['high', 'medium']
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 101.9 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation96
- Returns100
- Quality84
- Balance sheet95
- Growth0
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 362.71 – 858.25 USD.
Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)578.17 – 858.25 (Mid 687.38)WACC 9.3% · starting FCFF 14.4 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 72%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · not enough peers
- Peers: P/E362.71 – 836.32 (Mid 588.05)4 companies used · median multiple 13.2x · quartiles 8.1x – 18.8xCOP, CVX, MPC, PSX
- Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate59.40 – 79.88 (Mid 68.13)a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Attractive profile · Score 77/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 60.5% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Net margin · Quality | 8.4% | 40 (vs peers) | 6% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 107.7% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -11.4% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -36.1% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | -0.5x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 30.9x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.7x | 77 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 8.2x | 99 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 5.3x | 88 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 13.7% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 8.5% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 10.1% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
Score groups
- Balance sheet95/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality84/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns100/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation96/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
Memo
VALERO ENERGY CORP/TX (VLO). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 122.7 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -5.5%; net margin 8.4%; ROE 50.1%; net debt/EBITDA -0.5x.
The estimated value range is 470.44–847.28 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 637.72 USD, the price of 365.34 USD leaves a potential of 74.6% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 42.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 77/100, methodological classification: attractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 60.5%
- FCF conversion: 107.7%
- Net debt / EBITDA: -0.5x
- Interest coverage: 30.9x
- Current ratio: 1.7x
- P/E (TTM): 8.2x
- EV/EBITDA: 5.3x
- FCF yield: 13.7%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 8.5%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 10.1%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -11.4%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -36.1%
Versus the vertical median
Petroleum Refining (SIC 2911) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 5 companies
Only companies with a capitalisation between 15.3 bn and 981.9 bn (within 8× of the company's); 12 of the vertical were left out.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CVXChevron Corp | 428.7 bn | 20.8 | 12.2% | 9.6% | −6.8% | +44% / +51% |
| COPConocoPhillips | 164.5 bn | 18.1 | 14.2% | 14.7% | +7.7% | +54% / +18% |
| MPCMarathon Petroleum Corporation | 106.9 bn | 7.7 | 72.6% | 8.4% | −4.4% | +103% / +163% |
| VLOValero Energy Corp | 101.9 bn | 8.2 | 50.1% | 8.4% | −5.5% | +116% / +189% |
| PSXPhillips 66 | 101.3 bn | 8.3 | 41.1% | 7.5% | −7.5% | +90% / +101% |
| IMOImperial Oil Limited | — | — | 25.2% | 10.9% | −8.6% | +29% / +126% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for VLO from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 203.71 Total return -43% · Per year -43% | 361.95 Total return 0% · Per year 0% | 547.69 Total return 51% · Per year 51% |
| 3 years | 161.75 Total return -53% · Per year -22% | 326.66 Total return -7% · Per year -2% | 547.69 Total return 55% · Per year 16% |
| 5 years | 128.44 Total return -61% · Per year -17% | 294.81 Total return -14% · Per year -3% | 547.69 Total return 58% · Per year 10% |
- Exit P/E± 81.67
- Net margin± 57.17
- Annual revenue growth± 51.63
- Annual dilution± 4.80
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 22 Oct 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (28 Oct 2026).
In brief
Valero Energy Corporation is a refiner and marketer of liquid transportation fuels and petrochemical products, with assets in the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom. In the third quarter of 2026 it reported net income attributable to stockholders of $6.8 billion 3, supported by the Refining segment, which posted operating income of $8.8 billion 3. The company remains exposed to margin volatility, feedstock prices and policies on low-carbon fuels 12.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company reported strong operating results in the third quarter of 2026 and completed a long-term optimization project.
- The financial structure is solid, with low debt relative to capitalization and substantial cash reserves 3.
- The network of refineries and ethanol plants provides geographic and production flexibility.
Weaknesses
- Results depend heavily on refining margins, which are volatile and hard to control.
- The company purchases nearly all of its feedstocks, exposing it to price and supply risks 1.
- The renewable diesel segment has posted losses in some periods, showing its sensitivity to costs and policy.
Opportunities
- Growth in higher-value product capacity could support margins if demand stays strong.
- Expanding low-carbon fuel production could benefit from favorable public policies.
- Refinery closures across the industry could support margins for operators with efficient assets.
Risks
- Margin volatilityhigh
The gap between product and feedstock prices can change quickly, which can affect profitability and inventory values 1.
- Feedstock supplyhigh
Supply interruptions or tariffs can reduce volumes and raise operating costs 1.
- Energy costsmedium
Natural gas and electricity prices, along with water availability, can affect operating costs 1.
- Low-carbon fuel regulationmedium
Changes to renewable fuel programs can alter demand and compliance costs 12.
- Geopolitical and trade risksmedium
Conflicts, sanctions and trade tensions can change flows of crude oil and refined products 2.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Third-quarter 2026 results show the company's ability to generate strong profit in favorable periods, and completing optimization projects could support output of higher-value products.
- A low debt level and substantial cash give flexibility for investment and for returning capital to stockholders 3.
- Diversification across refining, renewable fuels and ethanol could partly offset volatility in any single segment.
What would break the thesis
- Profitability depends on margins that are hard to predict and could fall quickly if product prices decline.
- Tariffs, sanctions and low-carbon fuel policies could reduce market access or raise compliance costs.
- Quarterly results can be strongly influenced by favorable periods, which makes long-term performance difficult to project.
What to watch
- Evolution of refining margins and capacity utilizationQ4 2026
- Effects of tariffs on the renewable diesel segment2027
- Results after completion of the St. Charles FCC projectQ1 2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 22 Oct 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (28 Oct 2026).
The business
Valero operates 14 refineries with a combined throughput capacity of approximately 3.0 million barrels per day 3 and sells products mainly in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Ireland and Latin America 3. It is a joint venture member of Diamond Green Diesel, which produces renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel with a capacity of about 1.2 billion gallons per year 3. The company also owns 12 ethanol plants in the U.S. Mid-Continent region with a combined capacity of about 1.7 billion gallons per year 3.
Activities are organized in three reportable segments: Refining, Renewable Diesel and Ethanol 3. In the third quarter of 2026 refineries ran near record utilization rates, and the company completed the FCC Unit optimization project at its St. Charles refinery, which increases output of higher-value products such as alkylate and gasoline 3.
Segments
Refining
The Refining segment is the company's main source of revenue. In the third quarter of 2026 it generated operating income of $8.8 billion, with throughput of 3.0 million barrels per day 3. Results depend on the margins between product prices and feedstock prices 1.
Renewable Diesel
This segment consists of the Diamond Green Diesel joint venture, which produces renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel 3. In the third quarter of 2026 operating income was $353 million, compared with a loss in the same period of 2025 3. Performance depends on feedstock costs and on duties applied in some foreign jurisdictions 1.
Market context
Refining margins are volatile and depend on crude oil prices, global production capacity and demand for finished products 1. The company notes that recent refinery closures and new capacity additions have created uncertainty about industry margins 1. Demand and prices are also influenced by OPEC+ decisions 1.
In low-carbon fuel markets, price and demand behavior depends on regulations for low-carbon fuels, tariffs and international standards 12. Demand pressures could increase if public policies change, which could affect the renewable diesel and ethanol segments 2.
Trends
- Refinery optimizationtailwind
Completion of the St. Charles FCC project could support output of higher-value products and the company's supply capacity 3.
- Tariffs and international tradeheadwind
Tariffs and sanctions can change trade flows and feedstock costs, which could reduce margins in the renewable diesel segment 1.
- Energy and utility costsheadwind
Natural gas and electricity prices, along with water supply problems at Texas refineries, can raise operating costs 1.
- Low-carbon fuel policiesmixed
Renewable and low-carbon fuel programs can create additional demand but also compliance pressure, depending on how they are applied 12.
Competitive position
The company competes in refining and fuel markets on price and through adjustments to production capacity, and competitors' actions can affect margins 2. Competitors' imports into markets Valero supplies can also influence prices 2.
In renewable fuels, competition also comes from producers with different cost structures in foreign markets, which can reduce access to some markets 1.
- Refining and fuel-marketing competitors named generically in SEC sources
The analyzed sources do not name competitors directly; only generic competitor actions on capacity and pricing are described.
- Foreign renewable diesel producers
Foreign producers may benefit from different feedstock costs and differently applied tariffs.
- Ethanol producers in the Mid-Continent region
Competition centers on corn availability and ethanol product prices.
- Refinery operators in the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom
Their capacity and pricing decisions can influence regional margins.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- UBS Bets on Valero Energy (VLO) to Shatter its Record HighYahoo Finance — News · 16 Sept 2026 · EN
- Marathon Petroleum (MPC) and Valero Energy (VLO) Have Exploded in 2026. But Barron’s Sees More UpsideYahoo Finance — News · 26 Aug 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 16 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 30 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Current report30 Oct 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report28 Oct 2026
- Current report22 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report18 Sept 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report30 Jul 2026
- Current report30 Jul 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report16 Jul 2026Regulation FD disclosure
- Current report08 May 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Shareholder vote · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report30 Apr 2026
- Current report30 Apr 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Valero Energy Corporation · 25 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Valero Energy Corporation · 30 Jul 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Valero Energy Corporation · 22 Oct 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.