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olivLaw · US equity research

Banco Santander, S.A. SAN

Commercial Banks, NEC · SIC 6029 · Vertical: Commercial Banks, NEC (SIC 6029)

12.07USD+6.44% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Banco Santander is one of the largest banks in the world, with a global network and local leaders in the markets where it operates, organised into five global businesses. In 2025 it reported record attributable profit of EUR 14.1 billion, and its 2026-2028 plan targets higher profitability and the shift to a 'digital bank with branches'.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Banco Santander, S.A. (SAN) stock was 12.07 USD (+6.44% on the day), with beta 1.14, 52-week range 10.06–15.05 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
unavailable
shares as of 31 Dec 2025
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
Diluted EPS TTM 0.90 · TTM to 31 Dec 2025
E/P (TTM)
unavailable
TTM to 31 Dec 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
1.14
Volatility (1y) 36%
52-week range
10.0615.05

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
40.1
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
11.08 – 14.29
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.31 · band width 25.3%
SMA 50 / 200
13.72 / 12.93
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.63 / -0.54
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−13.2%−2.0%−11.2 pp—
3 months−17.6%−2.2%−15.4 pp—
6 months−2.7%+4.3%−6.9 pp—
Year to date+2.9%+10.6%−7.7 pp—
1 year+20.6%+10.5%+10.1 pp+23.0%
3 years+216.8%+73.7%+143.1 pp+123.9%
5 years+219.3%+61.7%+157.6 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−25.6%
03 Sept 2026 → 30 Oct 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−42.0%
10 Feb 2022 → 14 Jul 2022
Compound annual growth (5y)
+26.1%
S&P 500 +10.1%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).

E/P over time

the price (USD) and the reports are in different currencies

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenueunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
Revenue YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
Net income7.8 bn6.5 bn-8.8 bn8.1 bn9.6 bn11.1 bn12.6 bn14.1 bn
Net income YoY+18.0%−16.6%−234.6%unavailable+18.2%+15.3%+13.5%+12.1%
Diluted EPS0.430.35-0.540.440.540.650.770.90
Diluted EPS YoY+6.5%−19.3%−255.5%unavailable+23.2%+21.2%+18.0%+17.2%
net %unavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
Free cash flow-7.3 bn-9.4 bn58.8 bn46.7 bn18.6 bn-6.4 bn-32.6 bn-20.7 bn

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
152.3 bn EUR
Financial debt
unavailable EUR
Net debt
unavailable EUR
Equity
112.7 bn EUR
Total assets
1,867.5 bn EUR
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
unavailable
ROE
12.8%
ROA
0.8%
FCF margin
unavailable

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (EUR)

Income statement · EUR

Pre-tax income
2023
15.0 bn
2024
17.3 bn
2025
18.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
11.1 bn
2024
12.6 bn
2025
14.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
0.65
2024
0.77
2025
0.90

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
0.14
2024
0.20
2025
0.23

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026derived

Balance sheet · EUR

Cash
2023
220.3 bn
2024
192.2 bn
2025
152.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
1,797.1 bn
2024
1,837.1 bn
2025
1,867.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
1,692.8 bn
2024
1,729.8 bn
2025
1,754.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
104.2 bn
2024
107.3 bn
2025
112.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Shares outstanding at year end
2023
16.2 bn
2024
15.2 bn
2025
14.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · EUR

Dividends paid
2023
2.3 bn
2024
3.0 bn
2025
3.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
0
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 21 Feb 2024verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
0.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2017
Revenue CAGR 3Y
unavailable
input data missing
Revenue CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
Net income growth (YoY)
6.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2017
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
input data missing
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
EPS growth (YoY)
1.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2017
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
input data missing
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing

Profitability

Net margin
unavailable
input data missing

Returns

ROE
12.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
ROA
0.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Payout ratio (EPS)
25.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
unavailable
input data missing
Market cap / net income TTM
unavailable
input data missing
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
input data missing
Earnings yield
unavailable
input data missing
P/B
unavailable
input data missing
P/S
unavailable
input data missing
Dividend yield
unavailable
input data missing
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

Banking

Net interest margin
unavailable
input data missing
Cost-to-income
unavailable
input data missing
Loan-to-deposit
unavailable
input data missing
NPL ratio
unavailable
input data missing
CET1 ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cost of risk
unavailable
input data missing

32 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • indicators available: 2 of at least 6
  • score weight coverage: 22.0% of at least 60%

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

12.07 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: unavailable

Price and reporting are in different currencies; market indicators are unavailable.

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
unavailable
input data missing
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
input data missing
P/B
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
12.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Net margin
unavailable
input data missing
Revenue growth (YoY)
0.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2017
Dividend yield
unavailable
input data missing

Coverage and freshness

11/20 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2017
Latest reported period: 31 Dec 2025
Latest balance sheet date: 31 Dec 2025
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 31 Dec 2025
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 27 Feb 2026
verified 274derived 9

Score by group

22% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

Low
8.26
EUR per share
Mid
9.13
EUR per share
High
13.38
EUR per share
Price: unavailable
Potential to the central value: unavailable (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: unavailable (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: medium · 5 methods used · 4 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 3.09 – 15.09 EUR.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (EUR per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • Residual income8.26 – 8.64 (Mid 8.44)
  • Justified P/B11.07 – 15.09 (Mid 12.77)
  • Dividend discount (DDM)3.09 – 4.22 (Mid 3.57)
  • Peers: P/E5.56 – 13.38 (Mid 9.13)
    7 companies used · median multiple 10.1x · quartiles 6.2x – 14.9x
    AVAL, BCH, BLX, HDB, KB, NTB, PGC
  • Peers: P/B8.31 – 13.86 (Mid 9.88)
    6 companies used · median multiple 1.3x · quartiles 1.1x – 1.8x
    AVAL, BLX, HDB, KB, NTB, PGC
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Commercial Banks, NEC (SIC 6029)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
3.0%
Equity risk premium
5.5%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
8.5%
Terminal growth
2.0%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 2 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 22.0% of at least 60%

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROE · Quality12.8%47 (vs peers)73%
ROA · Quality0.8%26 (on a fixed band)27%
Cost-to-income · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net interest margin · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
NPL ratio · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Cost of risk · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Loan-to-deposit · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
P/B · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
P/E (TTM) · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
Dividend yield · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Quality41/100 · 2/4 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/1 factors with a value
  • Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

Banco Santander, S.A. (SAN). Latest full fiscal year: 2017; data up to 2025-12-31.

Figures computed from the financial statements: YoY growth 0.0%; ROE 12.8%.

The estimated value range is 8.26–13.38 EUR per share (median of 5 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 2 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 22.0% of at least 60%).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.

What contradicts it

  • ROA: 0.8%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Cost-to-income, Net interest margin, EPS CAGR 3Y, Revenue CAGR 3Y, NPL ratio, Cost of risk, Loan-to-deposit, P/B, P/E (TTM), Dividend yield.

Versus the vertical median

Commercial Banks, NEC (SIC 6029) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 20 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
—
vertical median 10.1x
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median —
P/S
—
vertical median 3.7x
P/B
—
vertical median 1.4x
ROE
12.8%
vertical median 13.6%
below median (−5.5%)
Net margin
—
vertical median 24.0%
EBIT margin
—
vertical median —
Revenue YoY
0.0%
vertical median 11.1%
below median (−99.7%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median —
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 1.1%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
BCHBank of Chile3,989.2 bn3.225,665.4%1,571,522.8%−10.7%+5% / +74%
HDBHdfc Bank Limited186.2 bn23.49.1%30.8%+15.2%−34% / −19%
KBKB Financial Group Inc.41.2 bn13.48.3%0.0%+17.8%+35% / +185%
NTBThe Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son Limited2.2 bn10.121.4%38.2%+4.6%+19% / +100%
BLXForeign Trade Bank Of Latin America, Inc.1.9 bn9.216.2%67.8%+14.1%+14% / +110%
PGCPeapack Gladstone Financial Corp839.4 m16.47.7%16.4%+24.1%+75% / +91%
AVALGrupo Aval Acciones Y Valores S.A.300.1——−2.4%+3% / +93%
MUFGMitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc.——9.1%14.6%+9.5%+39% / +156%
RYRoyal Bank Of Canada——15.3%30.6%+16.1%+36% / +132%
BMOBank Of Montreal——10.1%24.0%+10.6%+41% / +116%
INTRINTER & Co, INC.——11.1%14.2%+34.7%−56% / −25%
CMCanadian Imperial Bank Of Commerce——13.7%28.9%+13.8%+39% / +190%
BAPCredicorp Ltd——16.5%20.0%+7.0%+40% / +186%
VBNKVersaBank——6.1%22.8%+11.7%+90% / +193%
TDToronto Dominion Bank——16.9%30.3%+18.4%+53% / +110%
BCSBarclays PLC——9.6%64.6%+3.7%+4% / +228%
NWGNatWest Group plc——14.2%19.3%+3.1%−1% / +209%
INGIng Groep NV——15.6%32.4%+21.8%+27% / +133%
SANBanco Santander, S.A.——12.8%—+0.0%+21% / +217%
SUPVGrupo Supervielle S.A.——13.6%12.2%−13.9%−48% / +73%
LYGLloyds Banking Group plc——10.0%24.0%+7.9%+3% / +141%

1- and 3-year price returns: for SAN from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Scenarios are not available. input data missing

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 27 Feb 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (30 Oct 2026), 6-K (28 Oct 2026).

In brief

Banco Santander is one of the largest banks in the world, with a global network and local leaders in the markets where it operates, organised into five global businesses. In 2025 it reported record attributable profit of EUR 14.1 billion, and its 2026-2028 plan targets higher profitability and the shift to a 'digital bank with branches'.

SWOT

Strengths

  • Global scale combined with local leaders in core markets, a very large customer base and a diversified balance sheet with lower volatility than many peers.
  • Record results for several consecutive years, with low cost of risk and CET1 capital above the operating target.
  • A global business model that allows sharing of technology and platforms across markets.

Weaknesses

  • Dependence on European and Latin American markets exposes the group to political instability and currency moves.
  • Operating efficiency still depends on the success of the transformation programme and on acquisition integrations.
  • The Payments division has more volatile costs and returns, with investment write-downs in earlier periods.

Opportunities

  • Growth in fee income and expansion of the digital offer could strengthen profitability if the targets hold.
  • The integration of TSB and Webster could open new markets and cost synergies.
  • Green finance and responsible investment products could attract clients and capital if demand keeps rising.

Threats

  • Changes in monetary policy or an economic slowdown could affect loan quality and interest margins.
  • Cyberattacks and data security incidents are a permanent operational risk.
  • Pressure from fintech and payment platform competitors could reduce market share in retail and payments.

Risks

  • Credit riskmedium

    A deterioration of the economy or of the property market could raise credit losses and the cost of risk, which the report presents as a key indicator 1.

  • Market and structural riskmedium

    Changes in interest rates and exchange rates could affect net interest income and asset values, according to the risk management chapter 1.

  • Operational and cyber riskhigh

    Cyberattacks, data losses and other security incidents could generate financial and reputational losses.

  • Regulatory and compliance riskmedium

    Changes in tax, capital or environmental regulation could alter compliance requirements and limit capital distribution.

  • Political and geographic riskmedium

    Political instability in Spain, the United States, the UK and Latin America could affect the group's operations and investments 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If the group reaches its 2028 profitability targets and keeps growing fee income, the global scale model could support steady value creation for shareholders.
  • Efficiency gains from the ONE Transformation and the expansion of the digital bank with branches could reduce costs and increase customer retention.
  • Diversification across divisions and markets reduces reliance on a single risk and may keep results stable through volatile periods.

What would break the thesis

  • If the European or Latin American economies slow down, profit growth could be slower than expected.
  • Regulatory pressure and capital requirements could limit distributions and the group's strategic flexibility.
  • Acquisition integrations could divert management resources and generate unforeseen costs.

What to watch

  • Delivery of revenue and profit growth targets after the TSB and Webster integration2027
  • Trend in cost of risk and loan quality in the main marketsQ1 2027
  • Progress of the Payments division and PagoNxt against the EBITDA margin targetnext 10-K
  • Confirmation of the RoTEB target above 20% for 20282028

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 27 Feb 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (30 Oct 2026), 6-K (28 Oct 2026).

The business

The group operates through five global businesses: Retail & Commercial Banking, Digital Consumer Bank, Corporate & Investment Banking, Wealth Management & Insurance and Payments. According to the 2025 annual report 1, the group serves over 180 million customers, and revenue reached 62.4 billion EUR 1. The strategy rests on the ONE Santander concept, combining global scale with in-market leadership.

Segments

Retail & Commercial Banking

The largest division, with revenue of 31.2 billion EUR in 2025 1 and a 17.7% RoTE post-AT1 1. The focus is on digital operations, with branches that provide advice.

Corporate & Investment Banking

The corporate and institutional client division generated revenue of 8.5 billion EUR in 2025 1, with a 19.1% RoTE post-AT1 1 and a target of c.20% for 2025 1.

Market context

Santander operates mainly in Europe, the United States and Latin America, where it ranks among the top three in lending, deposits and mutual funds in most core markets 1. European and Latin American banking are affected by monetary policy, capital rules and trade tensions described in the report 1.

Interest rates, exchange rates and economic developments in Spain, the UK, Poland and Latin America are key drivers of results, according to the forward-looking statements in the report 1. Prudential regulation and liquidity requirements could change lending conditions in all these markets.

Trends

  • Market share consolidation and the TSB and Webster integrationmixed

    The group says it is now at scale in all core markets and aims for double-digit revenue growth in 2027, including through the TSB and Webster integration 1. Success depends on execution and macroeconomic conditions.

  • Digitalisation and the digital bank with branchestailwind

    The 'digital bank with branches' model aims at customer retention and cost reduction, which could support operating efficiency if digital adoption keeps growing.

  • Regulatory pressure and capital requirementsheadwind

    Capital and liquidity requirements, as well as climate-related regulation, could limit flexibility in distributing capital and raise compliance costs 1.

  • Fintech and artificial intelligencemixed

    The expansion of artificial intelligence and the fintech ecosystem could bring new product opportunities, but also new cybersecurity risks described by the group in its dedicated chapter 1.

Competitive position

Competition comes from other large European and global banks, as well as fintechs and digital payment operators. The report does not give a detailed list of competitors, but it stresses that the group's advantage derives from scale and in-market presence in key markets 1.

  • Large European banking groups

    Compete mainly in retail and corporate banking in Europe, with no named peers in the given source.

  • Fintech and digital payment operators

    Put pressure on the Payments division and on the group's digital offer, described as a strategic risk area 1.

  • Latin American banks

    Compete in regional markets where the group has strong local presence.

  • Asset managers and insurers

    Compete with the Wealth Management & Insurance division for mutual funds and savings products.

News & filings

In the press

Sources

  1. [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Banco Santander, S.A. · 27 Feb 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.

Banco Santander, S.A. (SAN): stock, results, valuation and forecast · olivLaw