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olivLaw · US equity research

SIFCO Industries, Inc. SIF

Aircraft Engines & Engine Parts · SIC 3724 · Vertical: Aircraft Engines & Engine Parts (SIC 3724)

18.94USD−6.28% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

SIFCO Industries makes forgings and machined components for the aerospace, defense, energy and commercial space markets, operating as a single segment. The company exited its European operations in 2024 to focus on aerospace forging, and its recent backlog and quarterly sales growth suggest a steadier recovery, while dependence on a few customers remains a point to watch.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, SIFCO Industries, Inc. (SIF) stock was 18.94 USD (−6.28% on the day), with market capitalisation 118.5 m USD, P/E 29.6 on diluted EPS of 0.64 USD over the last 12 months, beta 0.90, 52-week range 5.40–28.23 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 26.1 m USD (+18.3% YoY), net income of -40.0 k USD (−101.2% YoY), diluted EPS -0.01 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
118.5 m USD
shares as of 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
29.6
Diluted EPS TTM 0.64 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
3.38%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
0.90
Volatility (1y) 86%
52-week range
5.4028.23

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
34.7
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
18.68 – 23.31
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.06 · band width 22.0%
SMA 50 / 200
21.50 / 18.37
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.60 / -0.45
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−17.7%−2.0%−15.7 pp—
3 months−30.0%−2.2%−27.8 pp—
6 months+19.9%+4.3%+15.7 pp—
Year to date+239.4%+10.6%+228.9 pp—
1 year+173.7%+10.5%+163.2 pp+6.6%
3 years+320.9%+73.7%+247.2 pp+123.8%
5 years+144.4%+61.7%+82.7 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−32.9%
06 Aug 2026 → 04 Nov 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−75.9%
06 Dec 2021 → 30 Dec 2022
Compound annual growth (5y)
+19.6%
S&P 500 +10.1%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
26.1 m USD
+18.3% YoY
Net income
-40.0 k USD
−101.2% YoY
Diluted EPS
-0.01
−101.8% YoY
net / operating
-0.2% / 1.1%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue21.7 m20.9 m19.0 m22.1 m22.8 m24.0 m26.4 m26.1 m
Cost of revenue19.3 m20.0 m17.5 m16.2 m20.6 m18.8 m20.8 m22.7 m
Gross profit2.3 m928.0 k1.6 m5.9 m2.2 m5.2 m5.7 m3.4 m
SG&A2.6 m2.8 m2.4 m2.6 m2.6 m2.6 m3.0 m3.1 m
Operating income-320.0 k-1.9 m-781.0 k3.3 m-387.0 k2.6 m2.7 m286.0 k
Depreciation & amortisation1.2 m1.2 m1.2 m ≈1.5 m ≈1.1 m1.1 m1.0 m ≈1.0 m ≈
Interest expense1.0 m469.0 k428.0 k391.0 k397.0 k352.0 k304.0 k289.0 k
Pre-tax income-1.4 m-2.4 m-1.2 m3.3 m-426.0 k2.2 m2.3 m-18.0 k
Income tax26.0 k5.0 k75.0 k41.0 k65.0 k405.0 k-306.0 k22.0 k
Net income-443.0 k-2.3 m-1.4 m3.4 m-429.0 k1.8 m2.7 m-40.0 k
Diluted EPS-0.08-0.38-0.230.56-0.07 ≈0.290.43-0.01
Capex277.0 k109.0 k154.0 k ≈61.0 k ≈160.0 k96.0 k118.0 k ≈334.0 k ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 88 percentile of its own 8-quarter history (min 2.3, median 8.6, max 36.6; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue111.2 m112.5 m113.6 m99.6 m83.9 m66.1 m79.6 m84.8 m
Revenue YoY−8.4%+1.1%+1.0%−12.3%−15.8%−21.3%+20.5%+6.5%
Net income-7.2 m-7.5 m9.2 m-743.0 k-9.6 m-8.7 m-5.4 m-729.0 k
Net income YoYunavailableunavailableunavailable−108.1%unavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
Diluted EPS-1.30-1.351.59-0.13-1.65-1.47-0.90-0.12
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailableunavailable−108.2%unavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
net %-6.4%-6.7%8.1%-0.7%-11.5%-13.2%-6.8%-0.9%
Free cash flow-1.5 m-3.7 m-8.6 m-1.1 m-2.9 m-2.5 munavailableunavailable

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 30 Sept 2025

Cash
491.0 k USD
Financial debt
8.0 m USD
Net debt
7.5 m USD
Equity
36.9 m USD
Total assets
73.4 m USD
Debt / equity
0.22x
Current ratio
1.58x
ROE
-2.2%
ROA
-0.8%
FCF margin
unavailable

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
66.1 m
2024
79.6 m
2025
84.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 22 Dec 2025verified

Cost of revenue
2023
62.7 m
2024
73.7 m
2025
74.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 22 Dec 2025verified

Gross profit
2023
3.3 m
2024
6.0 m
2025
10.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 22 Dec 2025verified

Research & development
2023
—
2024
0
2025
0

SEC (XBRL)· 22 Dec 2025verified

SG&A
2023
12.3 m
2024
11.1 m
2025
10.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 22 Dec 2025verified

Operating income
2023
-9.0 m
2024
-5.2 m
2025
180.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 22 Dec 2025verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
5.1 m
2024
4.8 m
2025
5.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 22 Dec 2025verified

EBITDA
2023
-3.9 m ≈
2024
-366.0 k ≈
2025
5.2 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 22 Dec 2025derived

Interest expense
2023
1.3 m
2024
3.1 m
2025
1.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 22 Dec 2025verified

Pre-tax income
2023
-10.5 m
2024
-8.6 m
2025
-748.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 22 Dec 2025verified

Income tax
2023
16.0 k
2024
37.0 k
2025
185.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 22 Dec 2025verified

Net income
2023
-8.7 m
2024
-5.4 m
2025
-729.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 22 Dec 2025verified

Diluted EPS
2023
-1.47
2024
-0.90
2025
-0.12

SEC (XBRL)· 22 Dec 2025verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
5.9 m
2024
6.0 m
2025
6.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 22 Dec 2025verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
21.0 k
2024
1.7 m
2025
491.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 22 Dec 2025verified

Receivables
2023
15.6 m
2024
17.3 m
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
4.5 m
2024
6.2 m
2025
4.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 22 Dec 2025verified

Current assets
2023
41.5 m
2024
54.3 m
2025
35.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 22 Dec 2025verified

Goodwill
2023
3.5 m
2024
3.5 m
2025
3.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 22 Dec 2025verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
278.0 k
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Jan 2024verified

Total assets
2023
96.3 m
2024
104.6 m
2025
73.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 22 Dec 2025verified

Accounts payable
2023
11.0 m
2024
11.6 m
2025
5.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 22 Dec 2025verified

Short-term debt
2023
16.3 m
2024
20.1 m
2025
8.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 22 Dec 2025verified

Long-term debt
2023
0
2024
0
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Dec 2024verified

Current liabilities
2023
41.2 m
2024
54.0 m
2025
22.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 22 Dec 2025verified

Equity
2023
34.3 m †
2024
30.4 m †
2025
36.9 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 22 Dec 2025verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
-1.4 m
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Jan 2024verified

Capex
2023
1.1 m
2024
2.0 m
2025
484.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 22 Dec 2025verified

Free cash flow
2023
-2.5 m ≈
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Jan 2024derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-2.4 m
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Jan 2024verified

Financing cash flow
2023
2.9 m
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Jan 2024verified

Share repurchases
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Dec 2020verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
6.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
0.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
-5.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing

Profitability

Gross margin
16.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBITDA margin
9.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
5.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
4.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
unavailable
input data missing

Returns

ROE
10.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
5.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
11.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROCE
9.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
4.8 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
0.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Debt / equity
0.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Interest coverage
3.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
1.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash ratio
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
unavailable
input data missing
Capital expenditure
708.0 k USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
unavailable
input data missing
FCF conversion
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion
unavailable
input data missing

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days inventory outstanding
38 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days payables outstanding
40 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
118.5 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
123.2 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
29.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
29.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Earnings yield
3.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
2.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
1.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
13.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBIT
24.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/Sales
1.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/FCF
unavailable
input data missing
FCF yield
unavailable
input data missing
Dividend yield
unavailable
input data missing
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

Risk

Altman Z
unavailable
input data missing

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Unattractive profile

Score: 34 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

score < 40

Closing price

18.94 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 118.5 m USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
118.5 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
29.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
2.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
13.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROE
10.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
4.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
6.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
input data missing

Coverage and freshness

32/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 30 Jun 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 10 Aug 2026
verified 2425derived 191

Score by group

  • Balance sheet47
  • Growth3
  • Valuation50
  • Quality13

Estimated value range

Low
13.20
USD per share
Mid
18.63
USD per share
High
22.06
USD per share
Price: 18.94 USD
The price is within the range
Potential to the central value: -1.6% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -1.7% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: same comparison basis (not independent confirmations) · 2 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 9.00 – 24.67 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the input exists, but its latest figure is far older than the latest reported period: not used
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA9.00 – 24.67 (Mid 19.49)
    5 companies used · median multiple 13.5x · quartiles 6.5x – 17.0x
    HEI, HON, RTX, SARO, TATT
  • Peers: P/E17.40 – 19.46 (Mid 17.77)
    3 companies used · median multiple 27.8x · quartiles 27.2x – 30.4x
    RTX, SARO, TATT
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · input data missing
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Aircraft Engines & Engine Parts (SIC 3724)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Unattractive profile · Score 34/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality11.0%20 (vs peers)16%
Net margin · Quality4.0%0 (vs peers)9%
FCF conversion · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth0.4%3 (on a fixed band)13%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet0.5x40 (vs peers)16%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet3.8x36 (on a fixed band)9%
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.8x81 (on a fixed band)6%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation29.6x40 (vs peers)16%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation13.1x60 (vs peers)16%
FCF yield · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet47/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial3/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality13/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation50/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

SIFCO Industries, Inc. (SIF). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 84.8 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 6.5%; net margin 4.0%; ROE 10.3%; net debt/EBITDA 0.5x.

The estimated value range is 13.20–22.06 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: same basis (multiples on one peer group, not independent confirmations)); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 18.63 USD, the price of 18.94 USD leaves a potential of -1.6% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -1.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 34/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth, returns. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Current ratio: 1.8x

What contradicts it

  • ROIC: 11.0%
  • Net margin: 4.0%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 0.4%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Aircraft Engines & Engine Parts (SIC 3724) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 5 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
29.6x
vertical median 27.8x
above median (+6.6%)
EV/EBITDA
13.1x
vertical median 13.5x
at median
P/S
1.2x
vertical median 2.1x
below median (−43.6%)
P/B
2.9x
vertical median 3.1x
below median (−7.7%)
ROE
10.3%
vertical median 12.6%
below median (−18.3%)
Net margin
4.0%
vertical median 9.4%
below median (−57.7%)
EBIT margin
5.2%
vertical median 11.8%
below median (−56.2%)
Revenue YoY
6.5%
vertical median 15.8%
below median (−58.7%)
Net debt/EBITDA
0.5x
vertical median -0.2x
above median
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 1.1%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
RTXRtx Corporation275.0 bn33.112.6%8.8%+9.7%+17% / +150%
HONHoneywell International Inc71.1 bn10.736.0%21.0%+7.8%+11% / +16%
HEIHeico Corporation9.1 bn56.118.7%16.4%+16.3%+7% / +97%
SAROStandardAero, Inc.8.5 bn26.612.3%5.1%+15.8%−2% / unavailable
TATTTat Technologies Ltd494.3 m27.811.7%9.4%+17.0%−1% / +293%
SIFSIFCO Industries, Inc.118.5 m29.610.3%4.0%+6.5%+174% / +321%

1- and 3-year price returns: for SIF from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
10.66
Total return -44% · Per year -44%
18.88
Total return -0% · Per year -0%
28.50
Total return 50% · Per year 50%
3 years
9.50
Total return -50% · Per year -21%
19.02
Total return 0% · Per year 0%
31.63
Total return 67% · Per year 19%
5 years
8.47
Total return -55% · Per year -15%
19.16
Total return 1% · Per year 0%
35.12
Total return 85% · Per year 13%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 4.75
  • Net margin± 3.33
  • Annual revenue growth± 2.85
  • Annual dilution± 0.28

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

SIFCO Industries makes forgings and machined components for the aerospace, defense, energy and commercial space markets, operating as a single segment. The company exited its European operations in 2024 to focus on aerospace forging, and its recent backlog and quarterly sales growth suggest a steadier recovery, while dependence on a few customers remains a point to watch.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The company has recognized aerospace expertise, multiple process certifications and long-standing relationships with OEM customers 1.
  • Backlog has grown noticeably over the past year and gives visibility into future activity 12.
  • Improved profitability in recent quarters reflects the effect of higher volumes and better pricing 23.

Weaknesses

  • The company depends on a small number of large customers, and losing one of them would have a significant impact 1.
  • Small scale and relatively high-cost debt limit financial flexibility 1.
  • Shortages of skilled personnel and production cost pressure can slow deliveries and reduce margins 13.

Opportunities

  • Demand from commercial aviation and military sustainment programs could keep growing 1.
  • Commercial space and semiconductor markets offer growth potential for the company's materials and capabilities 1.
  • A focus on aerospace forging after the European sale could bring operating efficiencies 1.

Threats

  • Defense budget changes or program delays could reduce military orders 1.
  • Tariffs and metal cost volatility could hurt margins if they cannot be passed on to customers 12.
  • Larger and non-U.S. competitors could win bids on lower prices 1.

Risks

  • Customer concentrationhigh

    A small number of customers generates a large share of sales, and reduced orders could strongly affect results 1.

  • Defense budgetshigh

    Budget delays or a government shutdown could suspend military contracts and payments to the company 1.

  • Costs and tariffsmedium

    Higher material prices and trade tariffs could compress margins if they cannot be passed on to customers 12.

  • Liquidity and debtmedium

    The company has relied on operating cash flow and revolving credit; tighter credit could limit financing options 1.

  • Workforcelow

    Shortages of skilled workers and collective bargaining negotiations could slow production 13.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • Rising backlog and higher quarterly sales point to solid aerospace demand, which could support better profitability 12.
  • The company has focused on aerospace forging since selling its European operations, which could simplify its business 1.
  • If the commercial recovery and military programs continue, the company could benefit from higher volumes and production efficiencies 13.

What would break the thesis

  • Dependence on a few large customers makes results sensitive to their ordering decisions 1.
  • Third-quarter fiscal 2026 results were hit by LIFO expense, leaving net income close to zero 23.
  • Competition from larger and non-U.S. suppliers could pressure prices and margins 1.

What to watch

  • Backlog trend and military order flowQ4 2026
  • Gross margin after LIFO effectsQ4 2026
  • Customer concentration and any lost ordersnext 10-K
  • Planned capital expenditures for fiscal 2026next 10-K

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

SIFCO designs and manufactures forgings, sub-assemblies and machined components, with heat-treating, chemical processing and machining services, for OEMs, Tier 1 and Tier 2 suppliers and aftermarket providers. Products weighing roughly 2 to 1,200 pounds are made mainly from steel, high temperature alloys, nickel alloys, titanium and aluminum, with main operations in Cleveland, Ohio and Orange, California 1. Net sales in fiscal 2025 were $84.8 million 1.

In October 2024 the company sold its European operations, CBlade S.p.A. Forging & Manufacturing in Italy, to focus on core aerospace forging; financial statements present CBlade as discontinued operations 1. The company describes a long-term plan to balance military and commercial aerospace revenues, supplemented by energy, commercial space and other adjacent markets 1.

The company had about 259 full-time employees at the end of fiscal 2025, some represented under collective bargaining agreements in Cleveland 1. Management consists of a chief executive officer since July 2024 and a chief financial officer since November 2024 1.

Segments

Military aerospace

The military business supplies new and spare components for helicopters, aircraft, vehicles and munitions, including programs such as H-60 Black Hawk, C-130, F-18 and F-35 1. In the third quarter of fiscal 2026 military accounted for 73.3% of net sales, up from the prior year, driven by munitions, V-22 Osprey and UH-60 Black Hawk programs 2.

Market context

SIFCO's markets depend on air transport activity, U.S. defense budgets, the energy sector and commercial space launches 1. Total backlog rose from $119.2 million at September 30, 2025 to $164.2 million at June 30, 2026, with the increase attributed mainly to recovery in aerospace markets 12.

Trends

  • Commercial aviation recoverytailwind

    Air travel has returned to pre-pandemic levels and Airbus production of the A320neo and A350 keeps rising; these conditions could support demand for forged parts 1. If Boeing 787 and 737 MAX production constraints ease, demand could rise further 1.

  • Defense spendingmixed

    U.S. defense spending remains elevated because of geopolitical tensions, but procurement priorities can shift, and program delays or cancellations could affect the company 1. Current military demand is supported by munitions and sustainment of legacy platforms 2.

  • Tariffs and material costsheadwind

    Trade tariffs and restrictions can raise the cost of metals and disrupt supply; if these costs cannot be passed on to customers, margins could fall 1. Cost pressure already appeared in the third quarter of fiscal 2026 through higher LIFO expense 23.

  • Orders and labor availabilitymixed

    The company reports that skilled production labor remains a challenge, although recruiting has recently been more successful; stable staffing could support output 3. A larger backlog gives visibility but does not guarantee that all orders will be realized 1.

Competitive position

SIFCO competes with U.S. and non-U.S. forging suppliers, some much larger than the company, ranging from aerospace-focused firms to diversified corporations 1. The company argues its edge lies in aerospace expertise, quality and customer service, the SMART operating program and its broad range of capabilities 1.

Most contracts are won through competitive bidding, where larger rivals with more resources or entrenched incumbent positions can win work 1. If SIFCO cannot retain existing contracts or win new ones, sales could be affected 1.

  • Larger U.S. forging suppliers

    The filing refers to U.S. forging competitors, some considerably larger than SIFCO, without naming them.

  • Non-U.S. forging suppliers

    The filing notes SIFCO faces non-U.S. competition as customers establish facilities around the world.

  • Diversified corporations

    Some competitors are large companies with business interests outside aerospace and energy.

  • Smaller specialized suppliers

    Smaller firms offering a limited product portfolio also compete in this market, per the filing.

News & filings

In the press

No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-09-30 · SEC / SIFCO Industries, Inc. · 22 Dec 2025
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / SIFCO Industries, Inc. · 10 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / SIFCO Industries, Inc. · 10 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.