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olivLaw · US equity research

UBER UBER

Services-Business Services, NEC · SIC 7389 · Vertical: Services-Business Services, NEC (SIC 7389)

69.87USD+4.91% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Uber Technologies, Inc. (NYSE: UBER) operates a technology platform for mobility, delivery and freight. In the second quarter of 2026 Gross Bookings grew 24% (22% constant currency) to $58.0 billion, and revenue reached $14.2 billion. The company reports that profit is growing faster than sales, but driver classification remains a major legal risk.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, UBER (UBER) stock was 69.87 USD (+4.91% on the day), with market capitalisation 142.7 bn USD, P/E 41.3 on diluted EPS of 1.69 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.00%, beta 1.02, 52-week range 65.25–94.10 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 14.8 bn USD (+9.6% YoY), net income of 512.0 m USD (−92.3% YoY), diluted EPS 0.25 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
142.7 bn USD
shares as of 30 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
41.3
Diluted EPS TTM 1.69 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
2.42%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
0.00%
DPS 12m 0.00
Beta (2y)
1.02
Volatility (1y) 35%
52-week range
65.2594.10

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
55.0
strong (55–70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
64.04 – 72.88
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.66 · band width 12.9%
SMA 50 / 200
70.51 / 73.09
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.99 / -1.16
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+0.6%−1.1%+1.7 pp—
3 months+2.5%−0.5%+2.9 pp—
6 months−11.7%+4.4%−16.1 pp—
Year to date−14.5%+12.3%−26.8 pp—
1 year−26.2%+13.5%−39.7 pp+5.7%
3 years+46.3%+76.4%−30.1 pp+4.5%
5 years+48.1%+63.7%−15.6 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−30.7%
10 Nov 2025 → 30 Oct 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−55.4%
08 Nov 2021 → 30 Jun 2022
Compound annual growth (5y)
+8.2%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
14.8 bn USD
+9.6% YoY
Net income
512.0 m USD
−92.3% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.25
−92.0% YoY
net / operating
3.5% / 9.8%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue12.0 bn11.5 bn12.7 bn13.5 bn14.4 bn13.2 bn14.2 bn14.8 bn
Cost of revenue7.2 bn6.9 bn7.6 bn8.1 bn8.7 bn7.3 bn7.8 bn8.3 bn
Research & development785.0 m815.0 m840.0 m862.0 m885.0 m951.0 m1.0 bn1.3 bn
Operating income770.0 m1.2 bn1.5 bn1.1 bn1.8 bn1.9 bn1.9 bn1.4 bn
Depreciation & amortisation169.0 m171.0 m175.0 m188.0 m185.0 m184.0 m188.0 m212.0 m
Interest expense117.0 m105.0 m108.0 m112.0 m115.0 m108.0 m127.0 m152.0 m
Pre-tax income909.0 m1.4 bn1.5 bn2.6 bn291.0 m496.0 m3.3 bn855.0 m
Income tax-6.0 bn-402.0 m142.0 m-4.0 bn-40.0 m194.0 m840.0 m244.0 m
Net income6.9 bn1.8 bn1.4 bn6.6 bn296.0 m263.0 m2.4 bn512.0 m
Diluted EPS3.21 ≈0.830.633.110.14 ≈0.131.170.25
Operating cash flow1.8 bn2.3 bn2.6 bn ≈2.3 bn ≈2.9 bn2.4 bn2.9 bn ≈2.6 bn ≈
Capex44.0 m74.0 m89.0 m ≈98.0 m ≈75.0 m65.0 m70.0 m ≈104.0 m ≈
Share repurchases555.0 m1.8 bn1.4 bn ≈1.5 bn ≈1.9 bn3.0 bn518.0 m ≈750.0 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 69 percentile of its own 13-quarter history (min 12.6, median 17.9, max 121.7; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue10.4 bn13.0 bn11.1 bn17.5 bn31.9 bn37.3 bn44.0 bn52.0 bn
Revenue YoY+31.5%+24.6%−14.3%+56.7%+82.6%+17.0%+18.0%+18.3%
Net income997.0 m-8.5 bn-6.8 bn-496.0 m-9.1 bn1.9 bn9.9 bn10.1 bn
Net income YoYunavailable−953.2%unavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable+422.3%+2.0%
Diluted EPS0.00-6.81-3.86-0.29-4.650.874.564.73
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable+424.1%+3.7%
net %9.6%-65.4%-60.8%-2.8%-28.7%5.1%22.4%19.3%
Free cash flow-2.1 bn-4.9 bn-3.4 bn-743.0 m390.0 m3.4 bn6.9 bn9.8 bn

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
7.1 bn USD
Financial debt
10.5 bn USD
Net debt
3.4 bn USD
Equity
27.9 bn USD
Total assets
61.8 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.38x
Current ratio
1.14x
ROE
40.0%
ROA
17.8%
FCF margin
18.8%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
37.3 bn
2024
44.0 bn
2025
52.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
22.5 bn
2024
26.7 bn
2025
31.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
14.8 bn ≈
2024
17.3 bn ≈
2025
20.7 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026derived

Research & development
2023
3.2 bn
2024
3.1 bn
2025
3.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
1.1 bn
2024
2.8 bn
2025
5.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
823.0 m
2024
711.0 m
2025
719.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
1.9 bn ≈
2024
3.5 bn ≈
2025
6.3 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
633.0 m
2024
523.0 m
2025
440.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
2.3 bn
2024
4.1 bn
2025
5.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
213.0 m
2024
-5.8 bn
2025
-4.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
1.9 bn
2024
9.9 bn
2025
10.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
0.87
2024
4.56
2025
4.73

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
2.1 bn
2024
2.2 bn
2025
2.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
0.00
2024
0.00
2025
0.00

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
4.7 bn
2024
5.9 bn
2025
7.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
3.4 bn
2024
3.3 bn
2025
3.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
11.3 bn
2024
12.2 bn
2025
14.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
2.1 bn
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Feb 2024verified

Goodwill
2023
8.2 bn
2024
8.1 bn
2025
8.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
1.4 bn
2024
1.1 bn
2025
1.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
38.7 bn
2024
51.2 bn
2025
61.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
790.0 m
2024
858.0 m
2025
1.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
25.0 m
2024
1.2 bn
2025
0

SEC (XBRL)· 05 Aug 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
9.5 bn
2024
8.3 bn
2025
10.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
9.5 bn
2024
11.5 bn
2025
12.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
26.0 bn
2024
28.8 bn
2025
33.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
12.0 bn
2024
22.4 bn
2025
27.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
3.6 bn
2024
7.1 bn
2025
10.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
223.0 m
2024
242.0 m
2025
336.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
3.4 bn ≈
2024
6.9 bn ≈
2025
9.8 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-3.2 bn
2024
-3.2 bn
2025
-3.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-95.0 m
2024
-2.1 bn
2025
-5.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
0
2024
1.3 bn
2025
6.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
18.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
17.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
36.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
98.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
2.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
3.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
41.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
43.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBITDA margin
13.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBIT margin
12.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
6.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
18.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
12.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
5.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
15.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROCE
12.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
0.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
6.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
0.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Debt / equity
0.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Interest coverage
14.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
0.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
10.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
314.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
10.4 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
300.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
137.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
26 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
15 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
142.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
148.8 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
41.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
41.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
2.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
5.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
2.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
19.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBIT
21.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/Sales
2.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/FCF
13.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
FCF yield
7.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
0.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
4.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 58 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

69.87 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 142.7 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
142.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
41.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
5.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
19.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROE
12.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
6.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
18.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
0.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Coverage and freshness

33/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 30 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 04 Nov 2026
verified 1360derived 107

Score by group

  • Valuation38
  • Returns62
  • Quality54
  • Balance sheet74
  • Growth100

Estimated value range

Low
38.94
USD per share
Mid
56.82
USD per share
High
63.56
USD per share
Price: 69.87 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -18.7% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -23.0% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: low · 3 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 33.27 – 143.02 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)89.51 – 143.02 (Mid 109.96)
    WACC 8.8% · starting FCFF 10.8 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 75%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -4.4%
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA38.94 – 63.56 (Mid 56.82)
    8 companies used · median multiple 15.7x · quartiles 11.0x – 17.4x
    BR, CPAY, EBAY, FICO, FIS, GPN, MELI, PYPL
  • Peers: P/E33.27 – 56.08 (Mid 39.18)
    10 companies used · median multiple 23.2x · quartiles 19.7x – 33.2x
    ACN, BR, CPAY, EBAY, FICO, FIS, MA, MELI, MSCI, PYPL
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Services-Business Services, NEC (SIC 7389)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 58/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality15.7%45 (vs peers)12%
Net margin · Quality6.1%23 (vs peers)7%
FCF conversion · Quality300.8%100 (on a fixed band)7%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth17.7%100 (on a fixed band)10%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet0.8x73 (vs peers)12%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet14.0x100 (on a fixed band)7%
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.2x36 (on a fixed band)5%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation41.3x10 (vs peers)12%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation19.1x22 (vs peers)12%
FCF yield · Valuation7.3%91 (on a fixed band)10%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns4.3%62 (on a fixed band)7%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet74/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality54/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial62/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation38/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

UBER TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (UBER). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 52.0 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 18.3%; net margin 6.1%; ROE 12.4%; net debt/EBITDA 0.8x.

The estimated value range is 38.94–63.56 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 56.82 USD, the price of 69.87 USD leaves a potential of -18.7% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -23.0% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 58/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth, returns. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • FCF conversion: 300.8%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 17.7%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: 0.8x
  • Interest coverage: 14.0x
  • FCF yield: 7.3%

What contradicts it

  • Net margin: 6.1%
  • P/E (TTM): 41.3x
  • EV/EBITDA: 19.1x
  • The price is above the estimated value range
  • The valuation methods diverge

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): EPS CAGR 3Y, Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Services-Business Services, NEC (SIC 7389) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 13 companies

Only companies with a capitalisation between 17.6 bn and 1,128.6 bn (within 8× of the company's); 86 of the vertical were left out.

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
41.3x
vertical median 23.2x
above median (+78.3%)
EV/EBITDA
19.1x
vertical median 16.3x
above median (+16.6%)
P/S
2.5x
vertical median 2.7x
below median (−5.5%)
P/B
5.2x
vertical median 5.2x
at median
ROE
12.4%
vertical median 27.5%
below median (−54.8%)
Net margin
6.1%
vertical median 16.9%
below median (−63.8%)
EBIT margin
12.4%
vertical median 17.0%
below median (−26.8%)
Revenue YoY
18.3%
vertical median 8.5%
above median (+114.3%)
Net debt/EBITDA
0.8x
vertical median 3.3x
below median (−76.5%)
Dividend yield
0.0%
vertical median 1.0%
below median (−100.0%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
UBERUber Technologies, Inc.142.7 bn41.312.4%6.1%+18.3%−26% / +46%
MELIMercadoLibre, Inc.88.2 bn47.327.5%5.3%+39.1%−16% / +7%
EBAYeBay Inc.54.9 bn27.246.6%16.9%+7.9%+51% / +205%
PYPLPayPal Holdings, Inc.50.0 bn11.523.8%13.8%+4.3%−4% / +4%
MSCIMsci Inc.48.2 bn35.7—40.3%+9.7%+20% / +29%
FISVFiserv, Inc.33.0 bn—-17.0%-18.9%+3.6%+1% / −52%
CPAYCorpay, Inc27.5 bn25.430.5%22.7%+13.9%+42% / +74%
GPNGlobal Payments Inc.25.4 bn—-4.1%-9.1%−0.4%+27% / −17%
BRBroadridge Financial Solutions, Inc.21.4 bn20.940.2%13.9%+8.5%−17% / −2%
FISFidelity National Information Services, Inc.15.3 bn4.423.0%26.8%+5.4%−55% / −49%
FICOFair Isaac Corp15.1 bn20.3—34.1%+15.9%−61% / −36%
VVisa Inc.——60.3%51.7%+11.3%+31% / +70%
ACNAccenture plc—19.526.7%11.3%+6.5%+6% / −21%
MAMastercard Incorporated—35.2231.4%46.7%+16.4%+22% / +63%

1- and 3-year price returns: for UBER from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
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Base
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Bull
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Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
45.83
Total return -34% · Per year -34%
80.65
Total return 15% · Per year 15%
120.98
Total return 73% · Per year 73%
3 years
54.36
Total return -22% · Per year -8%
106.67
Total return 53% · Per year 15%
174.21
Total return 149% · Per year 36%
5 years
64.48
Total return -8% · Per year -2%
141.07
Total return 102% · Per year 15%
250.87
Total return 259% · Per year 29%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 26.67
  • Net margin± 18.67
  • Annual revenue growth± 13.92
  • Annual dilution± 1.57

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (04 Nov 2026), 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results).

In brief

Uber Technologies, Inc. (NYSE: UBER) operates a technology platform for mobility, delivery and freight. In the second quarter of 2026 Gross Bookings grew 24% (22% constant currency) to $58.0 billion 23, and revenue reached $14.2 billion 3. The company reports that profit is growing faster than sales, but driver classification remains a major legal risk 1.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The global network of users and the large volume of trip data support a platform that is hard to replicate 1.
  • Rising Gross Bookings and operating profit show that the business model can generate cash 23.
  • The Uber One membership and combined service use support customer retention 1.

Weaknesses

  • The company has had significant losses in the past and may not maintain profitability 1.
  • Reliance on treating drivers as independent contractors creates a continuing legal vulnerability 1.
  • The Freight segment remains at an operating loss, showing profitability challenges in logistics 3.

Opportunities

  • If cross-platform expansion continues, more customers could use several services 1.
  • Growth of advertising on the platform could add higher-margin revenue 1.
  • Investment in autonomous vehicles could open new markets if the technology scales 1.

Threats

  • Reclassification of drivers as employees could raise costs and reduce the flexibility of the model 1.
  • Well-capitalized competitors and low barriers to entry can pressure fares and incentives 1.
  • Fragmented regulation and changing laws may limit operations in certain countries 1.

Risks

  • Driver classificationhigh

    Court or legislative decisions requiring employee status could significantly raise costs and change the business model 1.

  • Intense competitionhigh

    Well-funded competitors could force fare reductions or incentives, which could hurt margins 1.

  • Data securitymedium

    Security or privacy breaches could lead to fines, litigation and loss of trust 1.

  • Local regulationmedium

    Varying transport and data protection laws may limit operations in some jurisdictions 1.

  • Investment gains and losseslow

    Reported results include gains and losses from revaluing equity stakes, which can make net income volatile 23.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • Rapid growth in Gross Bookings and users, together with rising operating profit, could support sustainable expansion if these trends hold 23.
  • Generating free cash flow above ten billion dollars over the trailing twelve months could provide flexibility for investment and share count reduction 3.
  • Combined services and the membership program could increase the value of each customer over time 1.

What would break the thesis

  • If courts or legislators require employee status for drivers, costs could rise sharply and the model could become less profitable 1.
  • The Freight segment remains at an operating loss, and logistics markets can stay difficult 3.
  • Competition in delivery and in autonomous vehicles could reduce margins or market share 1.

What to watch

  • Actual Gross Bookings against the Q3 2026 outlookQ3 2026
  • Developments in driver classification rules in the US and Europe2027
  • Effect of the United Kingdom model change on reported revenueQ4 2026

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (04 Nov 2026), 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results).

The business

Uber builds its platform on a network of drivers, consumers, merchants, shippers and carriers, supported by proprietary technology, local operations and product expertise 1. The company is available in over 70 countries and more than 15,000 cities, with approximately 34,000 employees as of December 31, 2025 1. Revenue is presented net, as an agent, after driver and merchant earnings, except in markets where Uber is directly responsible for services 1. The Uber One membership program had 46 million members as of December 31, 2025 1.

Market context

Uber operates in fragmented mobility, delivery and logistics markets where barriers to entry are low and competition is intense 1. Gross Bookings grew 24% year-over-year in the second quarter of 2026 3. The third-quarter 2026 outlook projects Gross Bookings between $58.25 and $60.25 billion 3, which could indicate slower growth if the current pace does not hold.

Platform activity is seasonal, with the fourth quarter usually the strongest for Gross Bookings and the first quarter usually the weakest 1. Currency movements and macroeconomic conditions can change reported results, and the company's outlook assumes a currency headwind of about one percentage point 3.

Trends

  • Driver classificationheadwind

    If drivers were reclassified as employees, compensation, benefits and social security costs could rise, and the company could raise rider prices 1. This could also reduce the supply of available drivers 1.

  • Cross-platform membership and usagetailwind

    Consumers who use both Mobility and Delivery generate much higher Gross Bookings than single-service users, which could support growth 1.

  • Autonomous vehiclesmixed

    Development of autonomous vehicles could reshape mobility competition, and the company acknowledges it may face competitors that scale such technology faster 13.

  • United Kingdom model changeheadwind

    From January 2, 2026 Uber is no longer responsible for Mobility services in certain UK markets, and driver payments are recorded as a reduction of revenue, which lowers reported revenue 23.

Competitive position

In mobility Uber competes with Bolt, Didi, Lyft and Ola, with public transit and taxis, and with autonomous vehicle developers Alphabet (Waymo), Amazon (Zoox) and Tesla 1. In delivery it competes with DoorDash, Instacart, Gopuff, Rappi, Delivery Hero, Just Eat Takeaway and Amazon 1. In freight it competes with C.H. Robinson, Total Quality Logistics, RXO, XPO, Echo Global Logistics and DHL 1.

The company notes that many competitors focus on a limited number of products or narrow geographies, which lets them build specialized expertise 1. Competition can lead to lower fares or large driver and consumer incentives 1.

  • DoorDashDASH

    Direct competitor in meal and local commerce delivery 1.

  • LyftLYFT

    Competitor in ridesharing, named alongside Uber in driver classification proceedings 1.

  • Instacart

    Competitor in grocery and retail delivery 1.

  • C.H. RobinsonCHRW

    Freight broker and managed transportation provider, competitor to the Freight segment 1.

News & filings

In the press

The latest news item in our archive is from 22 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 04 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

SEC filings

  • Quarterly report04 Nov 2026
  • Current report04 Nov 2026
    Results of operations · Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report15 Sept 2026
    Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report07 Aug 2026
    Material agreement · Termination of a material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report05 Aug 2026
  • Current report05 Aug 2026
    Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report16 Jul 2026
    Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report11 May 2026
    Departure or appointment of officers
  • Current report08 May 2026
    Shareholder vote
  • Quarterly report06 May 2026

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / UBER · 13 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / UBER · 05 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / UBER · 05 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.