olivLaw · US equity research
Allied Gold Corporation AAUC
Gold and Silver Ores · SIC 1040 · Vertical: Gold and Silver Ores (SIC 1040)
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Allied Gold Corporation (AAUC) stock was 20.41 USD (+7.70% on the day), with market capitalisation 2.5 bn USD, beta 0.85, 52-week range 14.82–32.01 USD.
Data as of · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 51.0
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 18.83 – 21.25
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.65 · band width 12.0%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 21.28 / 25.98
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.42 / -0.44
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +3.2% | −1.1% | +4.3 pp | — |
| 3 months | +3.7% | −0.5% | +4.2 pp | — |
| 6 months | −31.9% | +4.4% | −36.3 pp | — |
| Year to date | −10.8% | +12.3% | −23.1 pp | — |
| 1 year | +39.2% | +13.5% | +25.7 pp | −14.3% |
| 3 years | unavailable | +76.4% | unavailable | +144.8% |
| 5 years | unavailable | +63.7% | unavailable | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 730.4 m | 1.3 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +82.3% |
| Net income | -115.6 m | -51.8 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | -1.29 | -0.45 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | -15.8% | -3.9% |
| Free cash flow | -68.4 m | 105.8 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 479.8 m USD
- Financial debt
- 154.3 m USD
- Net debt
- -325.5 m USD
- Equity
- 504.7 m USD
- Total assets
- 2.1 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.31x
- Current ratio
- 0.77x
- ROE
- -11.3%
- ROA
- -3.0%
- FCF margin
- 7.9%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 730.4 m | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 510.1 m | 825.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 220.2 m | 506.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 47.6 m | 71.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 19.3 m | 26.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -5.4 m | 237.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified |
| Income tax | 114.2 m | 234.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified |
| Net income | -115.6 m | -51.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -1.29 | -0.45 | SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 89.7 m | 115.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 225.0 m | 479.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified |
| Receivables | 59.4 m | 117.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified |
| Inventories | 164.9 m | 140.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified |
| Current assets | 449.3 m | 763.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 795.6 m | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified |
| Total assets | 1.3 bn | 2.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 247.7 m | 373.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 96.4 m | 154.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 485.0 m | 988.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 903.6 m | 1.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified |
| Equity | 416.3 m | 504.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | — | 124.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 110.8 m | 514.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified |
| Capex | 179.2 m | 408.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -68.4 m ≈ | 105.8 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -193.4 m | -432.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 151.2 m | 184.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 3 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 18.8% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 2.5 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
19% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 20.05 – 29.66 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)20.05 – 29.66 (Mid 23.76)WACC 9.1% · starting FCFF 128.1 m USD · terminal value share of EV 75%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 7.0%
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 18.8% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | -3.9% | 19 (vs peers) | 33% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.8x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 22% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 4.2% | 52 (on a fixed band) | 44% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial19/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial52/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
ALLIED GOLD CORPORATION (AAUC). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.3 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 82.3%; net margin -3.9%; ROE -13.8%.
The estimated value range is 20.05–29.66 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 23.76 USD, the price of 20.41 USD leaves a potential of 16.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 14.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 18.8% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
What contradicts it
- Net margin: -3.9%
- Current ratio: 0.8x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Gold and Silver Ores (SIC 1040) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEMNewmont Corporation | 122.7 bn | 13.7 | 26.8% | 34.7% | +21.3% | +30% / +194% |
| AEMAgnico Eagle Mines Limited | 91.7 bn | 20.7 | 19.6% | 37.5% | +43.7% | +5% / +242% |
| BBarrick Mining Corp | 67.2 bn | 13.7 | 19.6% | 29.4% | +31.2% | −3% / +128% |
| FNVFRANCO NEVADA Corp | 46.7 bn | 42.0 | 16.3% | 61.0% | +63.7% | +15% / +116% |
| AUAngloGold Ashanti plc | 44.4 bn | 17.0 | 43.1% | 32.1% | +70.8% | +3% / +357% |
| GFIGold Fields Limited | 32.9 bn | 26.6 | 25.7% | 23.9% | +15.6% | −14% / +140% |
| KGCKinross Gold Corp | 25.7 bn | 11.0 | 31.0% | 33.9% | +36.9% | −24% / +264% |
| PAASPan American Silver Corp. | 17.5 bn | 16.2 | 16.8% | 27.1% | +28.4% | −9% / +165% |
| CDECoeur Mining, Inc. | 14.9 bn | 16.0 | 10.3% | 19.2% | +96.4% | −16% / +378% |
| AGIAlamos Gold Inc. | 12.6 bn | 14.3 | 22.1% | 49.0% | +34.3% | −20% / +103% |
| HMYHarmony Gold Mining Company Limited | 10.4 bn | — | — | — | +25.8% | −17% / +163% |
| IAGIAMGOLD Corporation | 10.3 bn | 15.3 | 19.5% | 25.7% | +74.7% | +12% / +588% |
| EQXEquinox Gold Corp. | 8.9 bn | 32.2 | 4.8% | 12.2% | +99.1% | −19% / +106% |
| AGFirst Majestic Silver Corp. | 7.6 bn | 45.3 | 8.0% | 13.1% | +124.3% | +1% / +158% |
| ARISAris Mining Corp | 3.2 bn | 38.3 | 7.0% | 8.4% | +81.7% | +12% / +396% |
| FSMFortuna Mining Corp. | 2.9 bn | 10.7 | 18.7% | 30.4% | +39.8% | −5% / +146% |
| NGNovagold Resources Inc. | 2.7 bn | — | -32.8% | — | unavailable | −40% / +45% |
| AAUCAllied Gold Corporation | 2.5 bn | — | -13.8% | -3.9% | +82.3% | +39% / unavailable |
| SVMSilvercorp Metals Inc. | 1.9 bn | 30.9 | 9.6% | 19.5% | +38.9% | +10% / +198% |
| HYMCHycroft Mining Holding Corporation | 1.6 bn | — | -72.3% | — | −100.0% | +49% / +716% |
| MUXMcEWEN INC. | 916.1 m | 12.8 | 13.5% | 32.5% | +13.2% | −20% / +94% |
| GROYGold Royalty Corp. | 648.9 m | — | -0.7% | -26.5% | +54.5% | −34% / +86% |
| OGGOsisko Development Corp. | 602.0 m | — | -27.0% | -476.4% | +678.0% | −33% / −17% |
| ITRGIntegra Resources Corp. | 398.7 m | — | -1.4% | -0.9% | +703.7% | −37% / +157% |
| CMCLCaledonia Mining Corp Plc | 397.9 m | 22.6 | 8.5% | 9.8% | +25.1% | −33% / +74% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for AAUC from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
The qualitative analysis has not been written for this company yet.
Products, market & competition
The qualitative analysis has not been written for this company yet.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Allied Gold Says China’s Zijin Gold Terminates TakeoverBloomberg Markets · 29 Jul 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 29 Jul 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 04 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Current report (foreign issuer)04 Nov 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)29 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)06 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)17 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)18 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)18 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)10 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)07 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)07 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)05 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.