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olivLaw · US equity research

Aris Mining Corporation ARIS

Gold and Silver Ores · SIC 1040 · Vertical: Gold and Silver Ores (SIC 1040)

15.72USD+8.94% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Aris Mining Corporation is a Canadian mining company developing and operating gold properties, with its core activity tied to the Marmato project in Colombia. Its annual report on Form 40-F for the year ended December 31, 2025 provides the context for assessing its operational and financial risks.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Aris Mining Corporation (ARIS) stock was 15.72 USD (+8.94% on the day), with market capitalisation 3.2 bn USD, P/E 38.3 on diluted EPS of 0.41 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.00%, beta 1.27, 52-week range 9.61–22.68 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
3.2 bn USD
shares as of 31 Dec 2025
P/E (TTM)
38.3
Diluted EPS TTM 0.41 · TTM to 31 Dec 2025
E/P (TTM)
2.61%
TTM to 31 Dec 2025
Dividend yield
0.00%
DPS 12m 0.00
Beta (2y)
1.27
Volatility (1y) 64%
52-week range
9.6122.68

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
44.6
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
14.32 – 18.17
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.36 · band width 23.7%
SMA 50 / 200
17.88 / 17.88
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.75 / -0.67
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−10.5%−1.1%−9.4 pp—
3 months+0.6%−0.5%+1.0 pp—
6 months−17.0%+4.4%−21.3 pp—
Year to date−3.1%+12.3%−15.5 pp—
1 year+63.8%+13.5%+50.2 pp−11.8%
3 years+486.6%+76.4%+410.2 pp+142.0%
5 years+270.8%+63.7%+207.1 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−41.1%
27 Feb 2026 → 31 Jul 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−58.9%
24 Mar 2022 → 03 Nov 2022
Compound annual growth (5y)
+30.0%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 33 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 25.0, median 39.6, max 41.1; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20212022202320242025
Revenueunavailable400.0 m447.7 m510.6 m927.7 m
Revenue YoYunavailableunavailable+11.9%+14.1%+81.7%
Net incomeunavailable-4.9 m11.4 m24.6 m78.3 m
Net income YoYunavailableunavailableunavailable+115.3%+218.7%
Diluted EPSunavailable-0.250.080.140.41
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailableunavailable+75.0%+192.9%
net %unavailable-1.2%2.6%4.8%8.4%
Free cash flowunavailable-38.1 m-9.0 m-40.2 m129.1 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
391.9 m USD
Financial debt
519.5 m USD
Net debt
127.6 m USD
Equity
1.4 bn USD
Total assets
2.5 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.36x
Current ratio
1.76x
ROE
6.2%
ROA
3.5%
FCF margin
13.9%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
447.7 m
2024
510.6 m
2025
927.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
261.8 m
2024
314.8 m
2025
414.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
185.9 m ≈
2024
195.8 m ≈
2025
513.2 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026derived

Operating income
2023
108.8 m
2024
117.4 m
2025
359.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified

Interest expense
2023
29.2 m
2024
41.0 m
2025
40.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
58.8 m
2024
79.3 m
2025
207.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified

Income tax
2023
47.4 m
2024
56.0 m
2025
127.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified

Net income
2023
11.4 m
2024
24.6 m
2025
78.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
0.08
2024
0.14
2025
0.41

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
137.1 m
2024
158.7 m
2025
191.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
0.00
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 07 Mar 2024derived

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
194.6 m
2024
252.5 m
2025
391.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified

Receivables
2023
49.3 m
2024
47.2 m
2025
76.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified

Inventories
2023
38.9 m
2024
45.7 m
2025
56.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified

Current assets
2023
289.1 m
2024
350.8 m
2025
536.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified

Total assets
2023
1.4 bn
2024
2.0 bn
2025
2.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
69.3 m
2024
76.2 m
2025
154.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
0
2024
0
2025
53.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
341.0 m
2024
494.1 m
2025
465.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
145.2 m
2024
134.5 m
2025
304.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
728.2 m
2024
911.4 m
2025
1.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified

Equity
2023
624.7 m
2024
1.1 bn
2025
1.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified

Shares outstanding at year end
2023
137.6 m
2024
171.0 m
2025
205.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
104.7 m
2024
141.2 m
2025
373.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified

Capex
2023
113.7 m
2024
181.4 m
2025
243.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
-9.0 m ≈
2024
-40.2 m ≈
2025
129.1 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-180.3 m
2024
-198.8 m
2025
-257.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-33.3 m
2024
121.3 m
2025
21.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
0
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 07 Mar 2024verified

Share repurchases
2023
0
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 07 Mar 2024verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
81.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
32.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT growth (YoY)
206.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
218.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
EPS growth (YoY)
192.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Profitability

Gross margin
55.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EBITDA margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT margin
38.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net margin
8.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
FCF margin
13.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Returns

ROE
7.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
ROA
3.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
ROIC
20.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
ROCE
16.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
127.6 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
0.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Interest coverage
8.8x
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Quick ratio
1.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Cash ratio
1.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025

Cash

Operating cash flow
373.0 m USD
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Capital expenditure
243.9 m USD
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Free cash flow
129.1 m USD
computed by olivLawFY 2025
FCF conversion
164.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Cash conversion
unavailable
input data missing

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
24 days
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Days inventory outstanding
45 days
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Days payables outstanding
102 days
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Cash conversion cycle
-32 days
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
3.2 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Enterprise value
3.4 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Market cap / net income TTM
41.2x
computed by olivLawFY 2025
P/E (TTM)
38.3x
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Earnings yield
2.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
P/B
2.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
P/S
3.5x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
9.3x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
EV/Sales
3.6x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
P/FCF
25.0x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
FCF yield
4.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Dividend yield
0.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

Risk

Altman Z
2.72
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 68 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

15.72 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 3.2 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
3.2 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
P/E (TTM)
38.3x
computed by olivLawFY 2025
P/B
2.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
7.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Net margin
8.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue growth (YoY)
81.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
0.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Coverage and freshness

30/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 31 Dec 2025
Latest balance sheet date: 31 Dec 2025
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 31 Dec 2025
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 11 Mar 2026
verified 120derived 1

Score by group

  • Balance sheet92
  • Growth100
  • Valuation35
  • Quality73

Estimated value range

Low
9.54
USD per share
Mid
11.43
USD per share
High
15.47
USD per share
Price: 15.72 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -27.3% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -37.5% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: low · 2 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 5.60 – 21.85 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)13.48 – 21.85 (Mid 16.66)
    WACC 8.7% · starting FCFF 163.2 m USD · terminal value share of EV 76%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 12.4%
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: P/E5.60 – 9.10 (Mid 6.21)
    16 companies used · median multiple 15.1x · quartiles 13.7x – 22.2x
    AEM, AG, AGI, AU, B, CDE, EGO, EQX, FNV, GFI, IDR, KGC, MUX, NAMM, NEM, PAAS
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Gold and Silver Ores (SIC 1040)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 68/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality20.8%75 (vs peers)17%
Net margin · Quality8.4%44 (vs peers)10%
FCF conversion · Quality164.7%100 (on a fixed band)10%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth32.4%100 (on a fixed band)14%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheet8.8x100 (on a fixed band)10%
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.8x80 (on a fixed band)7%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation38.3x22 (vs peers)17%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation4.0%50 (on a fixed band)14%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet92/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality73/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation35/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

Aris Mining Corp (ARIS). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 927.7 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 81.7%; net margin 8.4%; ROE 7.0%.

The estimated value range is 9.54–15.47 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 11.43 USD, the price of 15.72 USD leaves a potential of -27.3% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -37.5% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 68/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth, returns. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • ROIC: 20.8%
  • FCF conversion: 164.7%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 32.4%
  • Interest coverage: 8.8x
  • Current ratio: 1.8x

What contradicts it

  • P/E (TTM): 38.3x
  • The price is above the estimated value range
  • The valuation methods diverge

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Gold and Silver Ores (SIC 1040) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
38.3x
vertical median 16.1x
above median (+138.2%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 10.1x
P/S
3.5x
vertical median 4.8x
below median (−28.0%)
P/B
2.2x
vertical median 2.9x
below median (−22.2%)
ROE
7.0%
vertical median 0.8%
above median (+779.4%)
Net margin
8.4%
vertical median 16.2%
below median (−47.8%)
EBIT margin
38.7%
vertical median 24.5%
above median (+58.1%)
Revenue YoY
81.7%
vertical median 34.3%
above median (+138.2%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median -0.3x
Dividend yield
0.0%
vertical median 0.8%
below median (−100.0%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
NEMNewmont Corporation122.7 bn13.726.8%34.7%+21.3%+30% / +194%
AEMAgnico Eagle Mines Limited91.7 bn20.719.6%37.5%+43.7%+5% / +242%
BBarrick Mining Corp67.2 bn13.719.6%29.4%+31.2%−3% / +128%
FNVFRANCO NEVADA Corp46.7 bn42.016.3%61.0%+63.7%+15% / +116%
AUAngloGold Ashanti plc44.4 bn17.043.1%32.1%+70.8%+3% / +357%
GFIGold Fields Limited32.9 bn26.625.7%23.9%+15.6%−14% / +140%
KGCKinross Gold Corp25.7 bn11.031.0%33.9%+36.9%−24% / +264%
PAASPan American Silver Corp.17.5 bn16.216.8%27.1%+28.4%−9% / +165%
CDECoeur Mining, Inc.14.9 bn16.010.3%19.2%+96.4%−16% / +378%
AGIAlamos Gold Inc.12.6 bn14.322.1%49.0%+34.3%−20% / +103%
HMYHarmony Gold Mining Company Limited10.4 bn———+25.8%−17% / +163%
EQXEquinox Gold Corp.8.9 bn32.24.8%12.2%+99.1%−19% / +106%
AGFirst Majestic Silver Corp.7.6 bn45.38.0%13.1%+124.3%+1% / +158%
EGOEldorado Gold Corp6.7 bn13.612.4%27.9%+37.5%+7% / +155%
CGAUCenterra Gold Inc.4.3 bn—-4.7%-7.4%+28.8%+61% / +249%
ARISAris Mining Corp3.2 bn38.37.0%8.4%+81.7%+64% / +487%
NGNovagold Resources Inc.2.7 bn—-32.8%—unavailable−40% / +45%
AAUCAllied Gold Corporation2.5 bn—-13.8%-3.9%+82.3%−3% / unavailable
EXKEndeavour Silver Corp.2.1 bn—-22.4%-25.5%+114.8%−21% / +259%
HYMCHycroft Mining Holding Corporation1.6 bn—-72.3%—−100.0%+49% / +716%
IAUXi-80 GOLD CORP.1.2 bn—-81.9%-202.7%+89.1%+18% / −15%
NEWPNew Pacific Metals Corp.952.3 m—-2.8%—−19.1%+101% / +181%
MUXMcEWEN INC.916.1 m12.813.5%32.5%+13.2%−20% / +94%
MTAMetalla Royalty & Streaming Ltd.732.0 m—-1.7%-36.1%+99.6%+6% / +145%
GROYGold Royalty Corp.648.9 m—-0.7%-26.5%+54.5%−34% / +86%

1- and 3-year price returns: for ARIS from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
9.55
Total return -39% · Per year -39%
16.81
Total return 7% · Per year 7%
25.21
Total return 60% · Per year 60%
3 years
11.33
Total return -28% · Per year -10%
22.23
Total return 41% · Per year 12%
36.30
Total return 131% · Per year 32%
5 years
13.44
Total return -15% · Per year -3%
29.40
Total return 87% · Per year 13%
52.28
Total return 233% · Per year 27%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 5.56
  • Net margin± 3.89
  • Annual revenue growth± 2.90
  • Annual dilution± 0.33

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 11 Mar 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (04 Nov 2026), 6-K (21 Oct 2026), 6-K (07 Oct 2026), 6-K (30 Sept 2026), 6-K (29 Sept 2026).

In brief

Aris Mining Corporation is a Canadian mining company developing and operating gold properties, with its core activity tied to the Marmato project in Colombia. Its annual report on Form 40-F for the year ended December 31, 2025 provides the context for assessing its operational and financial risks.

SWOT

Strengths

  • Management concluded internal control over financial reporting was effective, and an external auditor audited that assessment 1.
  • Independent technical reports on the Marmato project give a documentary basis for resource estimates 1.
  • The company publishes a code of ethics and a clawback policy, supporting corporate governance 1.

Weaknesses

  • Activity relies heavily on one major project, concentrating operational risk in one geographic area 1.
  • The company cites dependence on key personnel, and losing senior people could affect project execution 1.
  • The filing flags debt servicing and additional funding needs, which limit financial flexibility 1.

Opportunities

  • If the Lower Mine Expansion study leads to an executed project, the company could increase production volumes 1.
  • Developing new properties from the exploration portfolio could diversify long-term revenue sources 1.
  • Reporting under both Canadian and U.S. frameworks could ease access to new capital sources 1.

Threats

  • A fall in the gold price could significantly reduce operating returns, as the filing's risk factors note 1.
  • Climate change risks and environmental requirements could raise costs or delay projects 1.
  • Political and regulatory risks in project jurisdictions could affect mineral property rights 1.

Risks

  • Gold price volatilityhigh

    Revenue depends on the gold price, and a decline could weigh on profitability and funding capacity 1.

  • Actual production below estimateshigh

    The filing warns that actual production could be lower than estimated, which would affect financial plans 1.

  • Debt servicingmedium

    The company flags risks in meeting financial obligations and servicing secured debt, which could limit strategic options 1.

  • Title and resource estimatesmedium

    Uncertainties over property title and mineral resource and reserve estimates could change the value of projects 1.

  • Environmental and climate riskslow

    Environmental practices, governance and climate change may create compliance and decommissioning costs above current expectations 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If gold prices stay high and Marmato output grows as planned, the company could see better revenue and margins.
  • Effective internal controls and an established external auditor could reduce uncertainty about reporting quality.
  • A portfolio of projects at different stages could offer growth options if they are developed successfully.

What would break the thesis

  • If gold prices fall, operating profitability could be hit quickly and single-project concentration would become more visible.
  • If actual production stays below estimates or costs rise, financial plans could need revision.
  • If access to funding narrows, existing debt could become a burden on project development.

What to watch

  • Progress of the Marmato Lower Mine Expansion studynext 10-K
  • Updates on gold prices and their effect on revenue2026
  • Debt level and ability to service itnext 10-K
  • Audit results on internal control2026

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 11 Mar 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (04 Nov 2026), 6-K (21 Oct 2026), 6-K (07 Oct 2026), 6-K (30 Sept 2026), 6-K (29 Sept 2026).

The business

According to its annual report on Form 40-F 1, Aris Mining Corporation is a company in the gold and silver ore extraction sector that reports financially under International Financial Reporting Standards. The company files with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and is listed on the NYSE. The attached documents include the management discussion and audited annual financial statements for fiscal 2025 and 2024 1.

The company references technical reports on the Marmato gold mine project in Caldas, Colombia, including a pre-feasibility study for the Lower Mine Expansion Project with an effective date of June 30, 2022 1. These technical reports underpin the resource and reserve estimates the company presents.

Governance includes an audit committee of three independent members, and the external auditor KPMG LLP issued a report on the effectiveness of internal control over financial reporting as of December 31, 2025, with management concluding that controls were effective 1.

Market context

The company operates in the gold market, where metal prices directly affect mining revenue and profitability, and the filing explicitly names gold price volatility as a risk 1. Aris Mining is listed on the NYSE and reports under Canadian standards and IFRS, which makes comparisons with U.S. companies harder 1.

Share price performance is shaped by exchange and interest rate movements, stock market volatility and the need to meet financial obligations as they fall due, factors listed in the forward-looking statements 1. These conditions could change access to financing for new projects.

Trends

  • Gold price volatilitymixed

    The filing shows the gold price is a major factor that could influence company revenue, and a favorable move could support margins 1.

  • Reporting and governance requirementsmixed

    Companies listed in the U.S. must follow strict rules on internal control and compensation recovery, which can raise compliance costs but also increase transparency 1.

  • Environmental and climate exposureheadwind

    The filing mentions climate change and environmental practice risks, and decommissioning costs for properties could rise over time 1.

  • Access to financingheadwind

    The company notes additional funding needs and secured debt obligations, which could become an obstacle if market conditions worsen 1.

Competitive position

The filing identifies competition for capital and for acquiring mining properties and undeveloped land as a significant risk 1. The company operates in a competitive sector where access to quality projects shapes long-term position.

The report does not name direct competitors, but it mentions competition for labour and resources, indicating pressure from other mining companies in the region 1. The exact competitive position remains unclear from the documents reviewed.

  • Other gold producers in Colombia

    The filing does not name competitors; it refers only to general competition for properties and capital 1.

  • Companies competing for mining land

    The report mentions competition for acquiring mining properties without naming entities 1.

  • Companies competing for capital

    Competition for capital is cited as a general risk, with no specific competitors identified 1.

  • Industry sources of skilled labour

    Competition for skilled personnel is mentioned, without company names 1.

News & filings

In the press

Sources

  1. [1] Form 40-F, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Aris Mining Corporation · 11 Mar 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.