olivLaw · US equity research
Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc CMCL
Gold and Silver Ores · SIC 1040 · Vertical: Gold and Silver Ores (SIC 1040)
Caledonia Mining is a gold producer operating in Zimbabwe, focused on the Blanket Mine and the Bilboes project under development. The company is listed on NYSE American, and revenue rose in 2025 on a higher average realized gold price, while the Bilboes project requires a large investment programme.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc (CMCL) stock was 20.61 USD (+8.36% on the day), with market capitalisation 397.9 m USD, P/E 22.6 on diluted EPS of 0.91 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 3.11%, beta 0.81, 52-week range 16.79–32.85 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q4 2024): revenue of 47.5 m USD (+22.9% YoY), net income of 5.9 m USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 38.2
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 19.26 – 25.28
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.22 · band width 27.0%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 23.80 / 23.69
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -1.02 / -0.76
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −15.3% | −2.0% | −13.3 pp | — |
| 3 months | −0.4% | −2.2% | +1.8 pp | — |
| 6 months | −9.5% | +4.3% | −13.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | −21.2% | +10.6% | −31.8 pp | — |
| 1 year | −24.0% | +10.5% | −34.5 pp | −5.2% |
| 3 years | +73.3% | +73.7% | −0.3 pp | +145.9% |
| 5 years | +60.9% | +61.7% | −0.8 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q4 2024 · 31 Dec 2024
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q1 '23 | Q2 '23 | Q3 '23 | Q4 '23 | Q1 '24 | Q2 '24 | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 29.4 m | 37.0 m | 41.2 m | 38.7 m | 38.5 m | 50.1 m | 46.9 m | 47.5 m |
| Cost of revenue | 19.9 m | 20.7 m | 20.5 m | 21.7 m | 19.0 m | 20.5 m | 21.1 m | 20.2 m |
| Gross profit | 5.9 m | 10.9 m | 14.1 m | 10.6 m | 13.8 m | 22.9 m | 19.3 m | 20.9 m |
| Operating income | -1.5 m | 921.0 k | 9.2 m | 2.3 m | 5.3 m | 16.1 m | 8.7 m | 13.5 m |
| Interest expense | 772.0 k | 1.1 m | 529.0 k | 662.0 k | 732.0 k | 797.0 k | 831.0 k | 797.0 k |
| Pre-tax income | -2.3 m | -136.0 k | 8.7 m | 1.7 m | 4.6 m | 15.3 m | 7.9 m | 12.7 m |
| Income tax | 2.4 m | 2.4 m | 3.8 m | 4.3 m | 2.5 m | 5.2 m | 4.6 m | 5.2 m |
| Net income | -5.4 m | -2.9 m | 3.8 m | -3.4 m | 1.5 m | 8.3 m | 2.3 m | 5.9 m |
| Diluted EPS | -0.32 | -0.14 | 0.21 | -0.19 | 0.07 | 0.42 | 0.13 | — |
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 88 percentile of its own 16-quarter history (min 4.4, median 10.2, max 66.1; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 69.8 m | 68.4 m | 75.8 m | 100.0 m | 121.3 m | 142.1 m | 146.3 m | 183.0 m |
| Revenue YoY | +12.5% | −2.0% | +10.9% | +31.9% | +21.3% | +17.1% | +3.0% | +25.1% |
| Net income | 9.4 m | 10.8 m | 21.3 m | 18.9 m | 17.4 m | 11.2 m | -7.9 m | 17.9 m |
| Net income YoY | +10.1% | +14.7% | +97.9% | −11.5% | −7.8% | −35.4% | −170.0% | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | 0.86 | 0.99 | 1.94 | 1.57 | 1.40 | 0.85 | -0.44 | 0.91 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +8.9% | +15.1% | +96.0% | −19.1% | −10.8% | −39.3% | −151.8% | unavailable |
| net % | 13.5% | 15.7% | 28.1% | 18.9% | 14.3% | 7.9% | -5.4% | 9.8% |
| Free cash flow | 2.9 m | -2.5 m | -1.8 m | 5.9 m | -1.2 m | 1.1 m | -13.8 m | 14.5 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2024 · 31 Dec 2024
- Cash
- 4.3 m USD
- Financial debt
- unavailable USD
- Net debt
- unavailable USD
- Equity
- 234.5 m USD
- Total assets
- 348.4 m USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 1.35x
- ROE
- 7.8%
- ROA
- 5.3%
- FCF margin
- 7.9%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 75.8 m | 100.0 m | 121.3 m | 142.1 m | 146.3 m | 183.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 May 2025verified |
| Cost of revenue | 36.4 m | 43.7 m | 53.1 m | 63.0 m | 82.7 m | 80.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 May 2025verified |
| Gross profit | 31.1 m | 46.7 m | 54.1 m | 61.8 m | 41.5 m | 77.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 May 2025verified |
| Operating income | 36.8 m | 35.9 m | 36.1 m | 30.2 m | 11.0 m | 43.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 May 2025verified |
| Interest expense | 344.0 k | 367.0 k | 375.0 k | 657.0 k | 3.0 m | 3.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 May 2025verified |
| Pre-tax income | 36.6 m | 35.6 m | 35.8 m | 29.5 m | 8.0 m | 40.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 May 2025verified |
| Income tax | 10.9 m | 12.5 m | 13.8 m | 14.4 m | 12.8 m | 17.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 May 2025verified |
| Net income | 21.3 m | 18.9 m | 17.4 m | 11.2 m | -7.9 m | 17.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 May 2025verified |
| Diluted EPS | 1.94 | 1.57 | 1.40 | 0.85 | -0.44 | 0.91 | SEC (XBRL)· 16 May 2025verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 10.7 m | 11.7 m | 12.2 m | 12.8 m | 18.6 m | 19.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 May 2025verified |
| Dividend per share | 6.88 | 0.37 | 0.63 | 0.69 | 0.58 | 0.64 | SEC (XBRL)· 16 May 2025derived |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 9.4 m | 19.1 m | 17.2 m | 6.7 m | 6.7 m | 4.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 May 2025verified |
| Receivables | 6.9 m | 5.0 m | 7.9 m | 9.2 m | 10.0 m | 12.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 May 2025verified |
| Inventories | 11.1 m | 16.8 m | 20.8 m | 18.3 m | 20.3 m | 23.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 May 2025verified |
| Current assets | 29.8 m | 44.6 m | 52.9 m | 38.4 m | 54.2 m | 61.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 May 2025verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 106.5 m | 126.5 m | 149.1 m | 179.0 m | 179.6 m | 189.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 May 2025verified |
| Total assets | 143.6 m | 177.9 m | 210.9 m | 235.2 m | 328.3 m | 348.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 May 2025verified |
| Accounts payable | 8.3 m | 8.7 m | 10.0 m | 17.5 m | 20.5 m | 26.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 May 2025verified |
| Short-term debt | 529.0 k | 408.0 k | 0 | 7.1 m | 665.0 k | — | SEC (XBRL)· 15 May 2024verified |
| Long-term debt | 1.9 m | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | SEC (XBRL)· 16 May 2025verified |
| Current liabilities | 9.9 m | 10.0 m | 17.7 m | 32.4 m | 40.1 m | 45.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 May 2025verified |
| Total liabilities | 43.6 m | 46.8 m | 58.4 m | 77.5 m | 104.1 m | 113.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 May 2025verified |
| Equity | 100.0 m | 131.1 m | 152.5 m | 157.7 m | 224.2 m | 234.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 May 2025verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 10.8 m | 12.1 m | 12.8 m | 12.8 m | 19.2 m | 19.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 May 2025verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 18.1 m | 31.0 m | 30.9 m | 42.6 m | 14.8 m | 42.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 May 2025verified |
| Capex | 19.9 m | 25.1 m | 32.1 m | 41.5 m | 28.6 m | 27.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 May 2025verified |
| Free cash flow | -1.8 m ≈ | 5.9 m ≈ | -1.2 m ≈ | 1.1 m ≈ | -13.8 m ≈ | 14.5 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 16 May 2025derived |
| Investing cash flow | -19.0 m | -28.0 m | -35.7 m | -44.3 m | -31.2 m | -32.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 May 2025verified |
| Financing cash flow | -1.2 m | 7.3 m | 2.2 m | -12.8 m | 3.9 m | -7.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 May 2025verified |
| Dividends paid | 3.4 m | 4.5 m | 8.1 m | 8.9 m | 11.1 m | 12.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 May 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 53 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
(margin_of_safety <= -0.25 & agreement in ['high', 'medium'])
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 397.9 m USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
- Valuation44
- Balance sheet78
- Quality58
- Growth50
- Returns47
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 8.41 – 28.56 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E11.80 – 28.56 (Mid 14.22)18 companies used · median multiple 15.6x · quartiles 13.0x – 31.4xAEM, AGI, ARIS, AU, B, CDE, EGO, EQX, FNV, FSM, GFI, IDR, MUX, NAMM, NEM, TII, VOXR, WPM
- Dividend discount (DDM)8.41 – 11.31 (Mid 9.65)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Unattractive profile · Score 53/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 9.8% | 42 (vs peers) | 9% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 80.9% | 73 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 14.7% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -13.4% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 13.8x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.4x | 46 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 22.6x | 42 (vs peers) | 15% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 3.6% | 45 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 3.1% | 44 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 85.0% | 50 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet78/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth50/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality58/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns47/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation44/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
Memo
Caledonia Mining Corp Plc (CMCL). Latest full fiscal year: 2024; data up to 2024-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 183.0 m USD in 2024; YoY growth 25.1%; net margin 9.8%; ROE 8.5%.
The estimated value range is 10.11–19.94 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 11.94 USD, the price of 20.61 USD leaves a potential of -42.1% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -72.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 53/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 80.9%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 14.7%
- Interest coverage: 13.8x
What contradicts it
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -13.4%
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Gold and Silver Ores (SIC 1040) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEMNewmont Corporation | 111.7 bn | 12.5 | 26.8% | 34.7% | +21.3% | +18% / +167% |
| AEMAgnico Eagle Mines Limited | 91.7 bn | 20.7 | 19.6% | 37.5% | +43.7% | +5% / +242% |
| BBarrick Mining Corp | 67.2 bn | 13.7 | 19.6% | 29.4% | +31.2% | −3% / +128% |
| WPMWheaton Precious Metals Corp. | 59.7 bn | 40.6 | 18.5% | 63.6% | +80.2% | +19% / +169% |
| FNVFRANCO NEVADA Corp | 46.7 bn | 42.0 | 16.3% | 61.0% | +63.7% | +15% / +116% |
| AUAngloGold Ashanti plc | 44.4 bn | 17.0 | 43.1% | 32.1% | +70.8% | +3% / +357% |
| GFIGold Fields Limited | 32.9 bn | 26.6 | 25.7% | 23.9% | +15.6% | −14% / +140% |
| CDECoeur Mining, Inc. | 15.0 bn | 12.0 | 12.8% | 26.8% | +96.4% | −16% / +378% |
| AGIAlamos Gold Inc. | 12.6 bn | 14.3 | 22.1% | 49.0% | +34.3% | −20% / +103% |
| HMYHarmony Gold Mining Company Limited | 10.4 bn | — | — | — | +25.8% | −17% / +163% |
| EQXEquinox Gold Corp. | 8.9 bn | 32.2 | 4.8% | 12.2% | +99.1% | −19% / +106% |
| EGOEldorado Gold Corp | 6.7 bn | 13.6 | 12.4% | 27.9% | +37.5% | +7% / +155% |
| CGAUCenterra Gold Inc. | 4.3 bn | — | -4.7% | -7.4% | +28.8% | +61% / +249% |
| ARISAris Mining Corp | 3.2 bn | 38.3 | 7.0% | 8.4% | +81.7% | +12% / +396% |
| FSMFortuna Mining Corp. | 2.9 bn | 10.7 | 18.7% | 30.4% | +39.8% | −5% / +146% |
| NGNovagold Resources Inc. | 2.7 bn | — | -32.8% | — | unavailable | −40% / +45% |
| AAUCAllied Gold Corporation | 2.5 bn | — | -13.8% | -3.9% | +82.3% | −3% / unavailable |
| EXKEndeavour Silver Corp. | 2.1 bn | — | -22.4% | -25.5% | +114.8% | −21% / +259% |
| HYMCHycroft Mining Holding Corporation | 1.6 bn | — | -72.3% | — | −100.0% | +49% / +716% |
| IAUXi-80 GOLD CORP. | 1.2 bn | — | -81.9% | -202.7% | +89.1% | +18% / −15% |
| NEWPNew Pacific Metals Corp. | 952.3 m | — | -2.8% | — | −19.1% | +101% / +181% |
| MUXMcEWEN INC. | 916.1 m | 12.8 | 13.5% | 32.5% | +13.2% | −20% / +94% |
| GROYGold Royalty Corp. | 648.9 m | — | -0.7% | -26.5% | +54.5% | −34% / +86% |
| OGGOsisko Development Corp. | 602.0 m | — | -27.0% | -476.4% | +678.0% | −33% / −17% |
| ITRGIntegra Resources Corp. | 398.7 m | — | -1.4% | -0.9% | +703.7% | −37% / +157% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for CMCL from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 13.68 Total return -31% · Per year -31% | 24.08 Total return 20% · Per year 20% | 36.13 Total return 80% · Per year 80% |
| 3 years | 16.14 Total return -13% · Per year -4% | 31.68 Total return 66% · Per year 18% | 51.75 Total return 167% · Per year 39% |
| 5 years | 19.03 Total return 9% · Per year 2% | 41.66 Total return 126% · Per year 18% | 74.13 Total return 292% · Per year 31% |
- Exit P/E± 7.92
- Net margin± 5.54
- Annual revenue growth± 4.15
- Annual dilution± 0.47
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 23 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (03 Nov 2026), 6-K (19 Oct 2026), 6-K (16 Oct 2026), 6-K (15 Oct 2026), 6-K (13 Oct 2026), 6-K (09 Oct 2026).
In brief
Caledonia Mining is a gold producer operating in Zimbabwe, focused on the Blanket Mine and the Bilboes project under development. The company is listed on NYSE American, and revenue rose in 2025 on a higher average realized gold price 1, while the Bilboes project requires a large investment programme 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company operates a mine with stable production and a diversified asset base through the Bilboes and Motapa projects, with an established position in Zimbabwe 1.
- The ability to generate high revenue during periods of high gold prices and operating experience in Zimbabwe are important assets 1.
- The power purchase agreement with the solar plant buyer reduces the risk of outages and dependence on expensive generators 1.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Gold price volatilityhigh
Revenue depends on the gold price, which is volatile and hard to predict, and the hedging programme only partly covers production 1.
- NYSE American listing riskmedium
If the shares were delisted from NYSE American, liquidity could fall and access to financing could be affected 1.
- Power and water interruptionshigh
The mine depends on power and water supply, and shortfalls could lead to extra costs or lower production 1.
- Rising input costsmedium
Consumables, labour, electricity and taxes could rise beyond expectations, affecting financial results 1.
- Share sales by holderslow
Sales of shares by holders of incentive awards, or the perception of such sales, could lower the share price 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the gold price stays high, revenue and cash flow could support the Bilboes investment and dividends 1.
- Reducing reliance on grid power through the solar plant and its purchase agreement could stabilise operating costs 1.
- If the Bilboes project were financed and developed successfully, the company could significantly expand production volume 1.
What would break the thesis
- If the gold price fell, margins could be compressed quickly, and partial hedging might not be sufficient 1.
- Rising cost per ounce could continue, and large investments could reduce short-term returns 1.
- Capital commitments for Bilboes could strain the balance sheet if financing were not secured on favourable terms 1.
What to watch
- Board decision and financing of the Bilboes project2026
- Exploration results at Motapa2026
- Stability of power and water supply at Blanket Mine2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 23 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (03 Nov 2026), 6-K (19 Oct 2026), 6-K (16 Oct 2026), 6-K (15 Oct 2026), 6-K (13 Oct 2026), 6-K (09 Oct 2026).
The business
Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc, domiciled in Jersey, conducts its activity mainly in Zimbabwe, where it operates the Blanket Mine and develops the Bilboes and Motapa projects 1. The company has been listed on NYSE American since July 2017 under the ticker CMCL, after delisting from the TSX in 2020 1. Its core activity is mining and selling gold, and revenue comes entirely from its Zimbabwean operations 1.
Segments
Blanket Mine
Blanket Mine produced 76,213 oz of gold in 2025, close to the prior year's level 1. On-mine cost per ounce rose in 2025, mainly due to labour and maintenance costs 1. The mine benefits from investment in underground development and a new tailings facility 1.
Bilboes project
Bilboes is a high-grade gold deposit near Bulawayo, with a feasibility study completed in November 2025 1. The company allocated 132.1 million USD to project development in 2026, subject to board approval and funding 1. Later capital commitments are estimated at about 353 million USD 1.
Market context
The company's revenue depends directly on the realized gold price, which was 3,383 USD per ounce in 2025 1. The gold price is influenced by international economic and political conditions, interest rates, and supply and demand, factors the company cannot control 1. The company uses out-of-the-money put options to partly limit exposure to price declines 1.
The local market in Zimbabwe has its own features, including the Fidelity refining regime, refining fees and currency rules that affect how the company receives revenue 1. The company delivers gold to Fidelity and exports part of its production to refiners in Dubai and South Africa 1.
Trends
- High gold pricestailwind
The average realized gold price rose substantially in 2025, supporting the company's revenue and margins 1. If the gold price returned to lower levels, the impact on results could be significant 1.
- Rising operating costsheadwind
Costs per ounce rose in 2025 due to inflation, labour costs and power tariffs, which could compress margins if the trend continues 1.
- Energy and infrastructure investmentmixed
The sale of the solar plant to CBE generated cash for investment, and the power purchase agreement secures supply to Blanket Mine, reducing reliance on grid power and generators 1.
- Financing and rising debtmixed
The 2026 investment programme will be funded through internal cash, cash reserves and debt, and dividend support could depend on financial results and capital needs 1.
Competitive position
Caledonia competes with other gold producers on operating and capital costs, and the advantage held by producers with by-product minerals does not significantly apply to the company, which earns nearly all revenue from gold 1. Its cost per ounce and ability to finance new projects are the main factors in its competitive position 1.
The source does not provide a detailed list of competitors, so direct comparisons with other producers cannot be made from the document 1. It only notes that gold producers compete globally on operating and capital costs 1.
- Global gold producers
The source refers only generally to global gold producers without naming specific competitors; the company benchmarks its costs against the industry as a whole.
- Producers with by-products
Some competitors benefit from producing other minerals in commercial quantities as by-products, an advantage Caledonia does not significantly have.
- Zimbabwean operators
Local competition includes other operators working under the same regulatory framework and power supply conditions in Zimbabwe.
- International buyers and refiners
The company indirectly competes with other refiners and marketing channels to obtain good sale terms for exported gold.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- New Caledonia Isle of Pines : A heavenly lagoon paradiseSurge — GDELT DOC · 26 Oct 2026 · RO
- A blessing or a curse? New Caledonia's dwindling nickel industryFrance24 — Europe · 01 Oct 2026 · EN
- Earthquake with magnitude of 6.6 hits off coast of New CaledoniaTASS (RU, EN) · 25 Sept 2026 · EN
- New Caledonia Has a New, Pro-France President. What Now?The Diplomat (Asia geopolitics) · 14 Jul 2026 · RO
- Polls open in New Caledonia’s first provincial elections since 2019Al Jazeera English · 28 Jun 2026 · EN
- New Caledonia polls open in first local vote in the French territory since 2019The Guardian World · 28 Jun 2026 · RO
- Microsoft pulls plug on plans for 244-acre data center in CaledoniaHacker News · 25 May 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 26 Oct 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 03 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Current report (foreign issuer)03 Nov 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)19 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)16 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)15 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)13 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)09 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)28 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)24 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)23 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)22 Sept 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc · 23 Apr 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.