olivLaw · US equity research
Assured Guaranty Ltd. AGO
Surety Insurance · SIC 6351 · Vertical: Surety Insurance (SIC 6351)
Assured Guaranty Ltd. is a Bermuda holding company that provides credit protection through financial guaranty insurance for public finance and structured finance obligations in the U.S. and abroad, and since 2026 also annuity reinsurance. The company is diversifying its business model, and the second quarter 2026 shows growing new business production, with present value of new business of 79 mn USD.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) stock was 72.51 USD (+1.71% on the day), with market capitalisation 3.2 bn USD, P/E 9.6 on diluted EPS of 7.52 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.99%, beta 0.52, 52-week range 67.72–92.18 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 195.0 m USD (−30.6% YoY), net income of 39.0 m USD (−62.1% YoY), diluted EPS 0.88 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 59.2
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 68.49 – 72.01
- above the upper band · %B 1.14 · band width 5.0%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 71.11 / 78.80
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.17 / -0.23
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +4.9% | −1.1% | +6.0 pp | — |
| 3 months | −12.4% | −0.5% | −11.9 pp | — |
| 6 months | −11.6% | +4.4% | −16.0 pp | — |
| Year to date | −19.3% | +12.3% | −31.6 pp | — |
| 1 year | −11.6% | +13.5% | −25.1 pp | +2.8% |
| 3 years | +10.7% | +76.4% | −65.7 pp | +42.2% |
| 5 years | +31.1% | +63.7% | −32.6 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 269.0 m | 156.0 m | 345.0 m | 281.0 m | 207.0 m | 277.0 m | 261.0 m | 195.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | 220.0 m | 30.0 m | 229.0 m | 133.0 m | 135.0 m | 165.0 m | 65.0 m | 49.0 m |
| Income tax | 44.0 m | 8.0 m | 44.0 m | 27.0 m | 21.0 m | 27.0 m | -20.0 m | 9.0 m |
| Net income | 171.0 m | 18.0 m | 176.0 m | 103.0 m | 105.0 m | 119.0 m | 88.0 m | 39.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | 3.17 | 0.35 ≈ | 3.44 | 2.08 | 2.18 | 2.55 ≈ | 1.91 | 0.88 |
| Operating cash flow | 17.0 m ≈ | 46.0 m | 87.0 m | 78.0 m ≈ | 55.0 m ≈ | 39.0 m | 190.0 m | 40.0 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 16.0 m ≈ | 16.0 m | 19.0 m | 17.0 m ≈ | 17.0 m ≈ | 15.0 m | 19.0 m | 17.0 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 131.0 m ≈ | 90.0 m | 120.0 m | 131.0 m ≈ | 118.0 m ≈ | 131.0 m | 75.0 m | 45.0 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 56 percentile of its own 39-quarter history (min 4.3, median 9.3, max 31.5; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | ⚠ 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.0 bn | 963.0 m | 1.1 bn | 848.0 m | 723.0 m | 1.4 bn | 872.0 m | 1.1 bn |
| Revenue YoY | — | −3.8% | +15.8% | −23.9% | −14.7% | +89.9% | −36.5% | +27.3% |
| Net income | 521.0 m | 402.0 m | 362.0 m | 389.0 m | 124.0 m | 739.0 m | 376.0 m | 503.0 m |
| Net income YoY | — | −22.8% | −10.0% | +7.5% | −68.1% | +496.0% | −49.1% | +33.8% |
| Diluted EPS | 4.68 | 4.00 | 4.19 | 5.23 | 1.92 | 12.30 | 6.87 | 10.26 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | — | −14.5% | +4.8% | +24.8% | −63.3% | +540.6% | −44.1% | +49.3% |
| net % | 52.0% | 41.7% | 32.5% | 45.9% | 17.2% | 53.8% | 43.1% | 45.3% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
The series breaks before 2018: earlier years come from the original reports of the issuer of that time, later years from a subsequent filing that restated the perimeter (a separation, discontinued operations). The year-on-year change across the break is not shown.
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 419.0 m USD
- Financial debt
- 1.7 bn USD
- Net debt
- 1.3 bn USD
- Equity
- 5.8 bn USD
- Total assets
- 12.2 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.29x
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 8.9%
- ROA
- 4.2%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-tax income | 413.0 m | 477.0 m | 148.0 m | 668.0 m | 488.0 m | 662.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 362.0 m | 389.0 m | 124.0 m | 739.0 m | 376.0 m | 503.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 4.19 | 5.23 | 1.92 | 12.30 | 6.87 | 10.26 | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.80 | 0.88 | 1.00 | 1.12 | 1.24 | 1.36 | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 298.0 m | 342.0 m | 207.0 m | 286.0 m | 128.0 m | 419.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 15.3 bn | 18.2 bn | 16.8 bn | 12.5 bn | 11.9 bn | 12.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 1.2 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 8.6 bn | 11.7 bn | 11.6 bn | 6.8 bn | 6.3 bn | 6.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 6.7 bn | 6.5 bn | 5.3 bn | 5.8 bn | 5.6 bn | 5.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dividends paid | 69.0 m | 66.0 m | 64.0 m | 67.0 m | 68.0 m | 68.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 446.0 m | 496.0 m | 500.0 m | 199.0 m | 502.0 m | 500.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Market and valuation
Insurance
32 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 58 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 3.2 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation52
- Returns50
- Quality17
- Balance sheet94
- Growth100
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 61.13 – 151.97 USD.
Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- Residual income115.36 – 120.65 (Mid 117.96)
- Justified P/B61.13 – 82.21 (Mid 70.12)
- Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate17.87 – 24.03 (Mid 20.50)a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
- Peers: P/E67.70 – 70.70 (Mid 67.99)5 companies used · median multiple 9.0x · quartiles 9.0x – 9.4xESNT, MTG, NMIH, ORI, RDN
- Peers: P/B136.11 – 151.97 (Mid 145.11)4 companies used · median multiple 1.1x · quartiles 1.1x – 1.2xESNT, MTG, NMIH, RDN
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 58/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROE · Quality | 6.3% | 17 (vs peers) | 20% |
| Loss ratio · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 74.8% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 15.4% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| ROA · Balance sheet | 2.8% | 94 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| P/B · Valuation | 0.6x | 83 (vs peers) | 16% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 9.6x | 20 (vs peers) | 16% |
| Dividend yield · Returns | 2.0% | 20 (vs peers) | 11% |
| Payout ratio (EPS) · Returns | 19.1% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet94/100 · 1/1 factors with a value
- Growth100/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial17/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Returns50/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation52/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD. (AGO). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: YoY growth 27.3%; net margin 37.3%; ROE 6.3%.
The estimated value range is 91.53–101.43 USD per share (median of 4 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 94.04 USD, the price of 72.51 USD leaves a potential of 29.7% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 22.9% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 58/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: quality. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 74.8%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 15.4%
- ROA: 2.8%
- P/B: 0.6x
- Payout ratio (EPS): 19.1%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- ROE: 6.3%
- P/E (TTM): 9.6x
- Dividend yield: 2.0%
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Loss ratio.
Versus the vertical median
Surety Insurance (SIC 6351) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 7 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORIOld Republic International Corporation | 9.6 bn | 9.0 | 17.9% | 11.2% | +11.0% | −13% / +36% |
| ESNTEssent Group Ltd. | 6.2 bn | 9.7 | 12.0% | 51.5% | +1.5% | +10% / +43% |
| MTGMGIC Investment Corp | 5.8 bn | 9.0 | 13.8% | 58.1% | +0.5% | +3% / +66% |
| RDNRadian Group Inc | 4.8 bn | 9.4 | 11.5% | 32.6% | −0.8% | +3% / +42% |
| NMIHNMI Holdings, Inc. | 3.3 bn | 8.6 | 15.4% | 54.1% | +8.5% | +15% / +60% |
| AGOAssured Guaranty Ltd. | 3.2 bn | 9.6 | 6.3% | 37.3% | +27.3% | −12% / +11% |
| OSGOctave Specialty Group, Inc. | 235.2 m | — | -20.4% | -49.6% | +6.5% | −42% / −65% |
| MBIMbia Inc. | 230.6 m | — | — | -149.5% | +90.5% | −40% / −38% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for AGO from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 50.27 Total return -29% · Per year -29% | 88.47 Total return 24% · Per year 24% | 132.71 Total return 86% · Per year 86% |
| 3 years | 59.63 Total return -12% · Per year -4% | 117.00 Total return 70% · Per year 19% | 191.10 Total return 174% · Per year 40% |
| 5 years | 70.73 Total return 9% · Per year 2% | 154.74 Total return 130% · Per year 18% | 275.18 Total return 301% · Per year 32% |
- Exit P/E± 29.25
- Net margin± 20.48
- Annual revenue growth± 15.27
- Annual dilution± 1.72
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Assured Guaranty Ltd. is a Bermuda holding company that provides credit protection through financial guaranty insurance for public finance and structured finance obligations in the U.S. and abroad, and since 2026 also annuity reinsurance. The company is diversifying its business model, and the second quarter 2026 shows growing new business production, with present value of new business of 79 mn USD 3.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has a diversified guaranty portfolio and solid financial strength ratings for its insurance subsidiaries, which support demand for its products 1.
- Key per-share valuation metrics reached record levels at mid-2026, which shows value creation capacity 3.
- New business production grew in the first half of 2026, with contributions from U.S. public finance and structured finance 3.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Concentration of exposureshigh
Large exposures to a single issuer or correlated risks can generate significant losses if assessments prove wrong 1.
- Integration of Assured Life Remedium
The acquisition and expansion into annuity reinsurance carry integration risks and pricing assumption risks on longevity and policy behavior 1.
- Reliance on credit ratingsmedium
A downgrade of the insurance subsidiaries' ratings could reduce demand and require additional capital 1.
- Macroeconomic volatilitylow
Inflation, interest rates and tariffs can affect capital markets, the cost of debt and the value of the company's investments 12.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- The company could benefit if new business production keeps growing and if diversification into annuity reinsurance brings more predictable income.
- Key per-share metrics reached record levels, and capital returned to shareholders may support investor confidence.
- Wider credit spreads could allow higher premiums on new business, which could improve profitability.
What would break the thesis
- The company's share of municipal issuance has declined, and stronger competition could limit volume growth.
- Unexpected losses on a few large exposures could materially reduce results and capital.
- Integrating a new annuity reinsurance segment could bring costs and risks that are not yet clear.
What to watch
- Trends in new business production and the company's share of municipal issuanceQ3 2026
- Development of Assured Life Re and results of the annuity reinsurance segment2026
- Evolution of net losses and reserves on large exposures, including BrightlineQ3 2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGL and its subsidiaries) is a Bermuda-based holding company that, through its insurance subsidiaries, offers credit protection products to U.S. and non-U.S. public finance (including infrastructure) and structured finance markets 1. Its guaranty covers scheduled debt service if an obligor defaults, but the holder generally cannot require accelerated payment from the company 1. The company reports two segments, Insurance and Asset Management, plus a Corporate division 1.
The acquisition of Warwick Company (UK) Limited, owner of Assured Life Re, closed on January 21, 2026 for a purchase price of 158 mn USD and gave the company its first platform dedicated solely to life and annuity reinsurance 1. Its ownership interest in Sound Point Capital Management extends its asset management activity 1. Key strategies cover growth of insurance and asset management, loss mitigation, alternative investments and capital management 1.
Trends
- Rising rates and wider credit spreadsmixed
Wider credit spreads could allow the company to raise premium rates on new business, while higher rates may encourage municipal issuance but can also reduce up-front premiums on some deals 1.
- Tariff and U.S. economic uncertaintyheadwind
Tariffs and market volatility could raise recession risk and make defaults by insured obligors more likely, though they may also create new business opportunities when credit spreads widen 1.
- Diversification into annuity reinsurancetailwind
The Assured Life Re acquisition extends the business into revenue streams independent of financial guaranty, which could support net income growth and predictability 1.
- Market response to new productiontailwind
Gross written premiums and present value of new business rose in the first half of 2026 compared with the first half of 2025, showing continued demand in U.S. public finance and structured finance 3.
Competitive position
In annuity reinsurance the company is entering a new field where competition and longevity assumptions can affect results 1. If actual experience differs from pricing assumptions, the effect on financial condition could be significant 1.
- Financial guaranty insurers using alternative credit protection
The sources mention new market entrants and alternative forms of credit protection without naming specific companies.
- Alternative annuity reinsurance providers
The sources mention competition in the annuity segment without naming companies.
- Alternative investment managers
Relations with other alternative investment managers are cited as a risk factor without naming specific firms.
- Other participants in the U.S. municipal market
Share of municipal issuance depends on other market participants, which the sources do not name.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report07 Aug 2026Regulation FD disclosure
- Quarterly report07 Aug 2026
- Current report06 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report08 May 2026Regulation FD disclosure
- Quarterly report08 May 2026
- Current report07 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report05 May 2026Shareholder vote
- Current report23 Mar 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report19 Mar 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Proxy statement18 Mar 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Assured Guaranty Ltd. · 27 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Assured Guaranty Ltd. · 07 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Assured Guaranty Ltd. · 06 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.