olivLaw · US equity research
Essent Group Ltd. ESNT
Surety Insurance · SIC 6351 · Vertical: Surety Insurance (SIC 6351)
Essent Group Ltd. (ESNT) provides private mortgage insurance, reinsurance, and title insurance and settlement services supporting US home financing. In the first half of 2026 the company reported NIW of 25.2 billion USD, while mortgage insurance in force reached 249.7 billion USD amid elevated mortgage rates that have slowed lending.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Essent Group Ltd. (ESNT) stock was 69.34 USD (+2.41% on the day), with market capitalisation 6.2 bn USD, P/E 9.7 on diluted EPS of 7.17 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.90%, beta 0.41, 52-week range 55.84–69.63 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 362.7 m USD (+13.6% YoY), net income of 189.7 m USD (−2.9% YoY), diluted EPS 2.08 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 64.4
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 61.12 – 69.59
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.97 · band width 13.0%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 65.71 / 63.04
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 1.03 / 0.52
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +13.5% | −1.1% | +14.6 pp | — |
| 3 months | +4.3% | −0.5% | +4.7 pp | — |
| 6 months | +12.9% | +4.4% | +8.5 pp | — |
| Year to date | +6.7% | +12.3% | −5.7 pp | — |
| 1 year | +12.1% | +13.5% | −1.5 pp | −13.3% |
| 3 years | +41.3% | +76.4% | −35.1 pp | +36.3% |
| 5 years | +43.9% | +63.7% | −19.7 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 316.6 m | 315.0 m | 317.6 m | 319.1 m | 311.8 m | 312.4 m | 336.1 m | 362.7 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 1.5 m ≈ | 1.4 m | 1.4 m | 1.3 m ≈ | 1.3 m ≈ | 1.3 m | 1.2 m | 1.2 m ≈ |
| Interest expense | 11.5 m | 8.2 m | 8.1 m | 8.1 m | 8.3 m | 8.1 m | 8.1 m | 8.1 m |
| Pre-tax income | 207.6 m | 195.0 m | 207.0 m | 231.2 m | 199.2 m | 184.5 m | 206.7 m | 230.3 m |
| Income tax | 31.4 m | 27.1 m | 31.6 m | 35.8 m | 34.9 m | 29.5 m | 34.9 m | 40.6 m |
| Net income | 176.2 m | 167.9 m | 175.4 m | 195.3 m | 164.2 m | 155.0 m | 171.8 m | 189.7 m |
| Diluted EPS | 1.65 | 1.58 ≈ | 1.69 | 1.93 | 1.67 | 1.60 ≈ | 1.82 | 2.08 |
| Operating cash flow | 229.2 m ≈ | 226.7 m | 221.6 m | 189.5 m ≈ | 215.9 m ≈ | 229.1 m | 192.0 m | 197.1 m ≈ |
| Capex | 503.0 k ≈ | 721.0 k | 221.0 k | 742.0 k ≈ | 5.3 m ≈ | 1.1 m | 818.0 k | 972.0 k ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 29.5 m ≈ | 29.4 m | 31.7 m | 30.9 m ≈ | 30.1 m ≈ | 29.5 m | 32.6 m | 31.6 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 9.6 m ≈ | 66.3 m | 168.9 m | 170.5 m ≈ | 122.1 m ≈ | 126.2 m | 170.9 m | 191.8 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 79 percentile of its own 39-quarter history (min 4.4, median 8.7, max 13.8; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 719.4 m | 867.6 m | 955.2 m | 1.0 bn | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +24.8% | +20.6% | +10.1% | +7.7% | −2.7% | +10.9% | +12.0% | +1.5% |
| Net income | 467.4 m | 555.7 m | 413.0 m | 681.8 m | 831.4 m | 696.4 m | 729.4 m | 690.0 m |
| Net income YoY | +23.1% | +18.9% | −25.7% | +65.1% | +21.9% | −16.2% | +4.7% | −5.4% |
| Diluted EPS | 4.77 | 5.66 | 3.88 | 6.11 | 7.72 | 6.50 | 6.85 | 6.90 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +19.5% | +18.7% | −31.4% | +57.5% | +26.4% | −15.8% | +5.4% | +0.7% |
| net % | 65.0% | 64.1% | 43.2% | 66.3% | 83.1% | 62.8% | 58.7% | 54.7% |
| Free cash flow | 621.3 m | 586.4 m | 725.5 m | 706.8 m | 584.8 m | 759.0 m | 854.8 m | 848.7 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 123.0 m USD
- Financial debt
- unavailable USD
- Net debt
- unavailable USD
- Equity
- 5.8 bn USD
- Total assets
- 7.4 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 12.1%
- ROA
- 9.5%
- FCF margin
- 67.3%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-tax income | 490.1 m | 822.3 m | 988.2 m | 823.0 m | 855.5 m | 821.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 413.0 m | 681.8 m | 831.4 m | 696.4 m | 729.4 m | 690.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 3.88 | 6.11 | 7.72 | 6.50 | 6.85 | 6.90 | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.64 | 0.70 | 0.86 | 1.00 | 1.12 | 1.24 | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 102.8 m | 81.5 m | 81.2 m | 141.8 m | 131.5 m | 123.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Loans | 50.1 m | 46.2 m | 57.4 m | 63.3 m | 55.6 m | 51.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 5.2 bn | 5.7 bn | 5.7 bn | 6.4 bn | 7.1 bn | 7.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 3.9 bn † | 4.2 bn † | 4.5 bn † | 5.1 bn † | 5.6 bn † | 5.8 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dividends paid | 69.4 m | 77.7 m | 92.1 m | 106.2 m | 118.0 m | 122.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 6.4 m | 163.9 m | 97.9 m | 70.7 m | 111.5 m | 587.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Market and valuation
Insurance
32 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 41 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 6.2 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet100
- Growth36
- Quality50
- Returns38
- Valuation25
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 42.96 – 103.31 USD.
Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- Residual income65.44 – 68.46 (Mid 66.93)
- Justified P/B76.82 – 103.31 (Mid 88.12)
- Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate16.29 – 21.91 (Mid 18.69)a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
- Peers: P/E64.56 – 67.42 (Mid 64.83)5 companies used · median multiple 9.0x · quartiles 9.0x – 9.4xAGO, MTG, NMIH, ORI, RDN
- Peers: P/B42.96 – 76.60 (Mid 69.36)6 companies used · median multiple 1.1x · quartiles 0.7x – 1.2xAGO, MTG, NMIH, ORI, OSG, RDN
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 41/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROE · Quality | 12.0% | 50 (vs peers) | 20% |
| Loss ratio · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -3.7% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 8.0% | 80 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| ROA · Balance sheet | 9.2% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| P/B · Valuation | 1.1x | 50 (vs peers) | 16% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 9.7x | 0 (vs peers) | 16% |
| Dividend yield · Returns | 1.9% | 0 (vs peers) | 11% |
| Payout ratio (EPS) · Returns | 18.4% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet100/100 · 1/1 factors with a value
- Growth36/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial50/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Returns38/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation25/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
ESSENT GROUP LTD. (ESNT). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: YoY growth 1.5%; net margin 51.5%; ROE 12.0%.
The estimated value range is 65.00–72.53 USD per share (median of 4 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 68.14 USD, the price of 69.34 USD leaves a potential of -1.7% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -1.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 41/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: quality. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 8.0%
- ROA: 9.2%
- Payout ratio (EPS): 18.4%
What contradicts it
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -3.7%
- P/E (TTM): 9.7x
- Dividend yield: 1.9%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Loss ratio.
Versus the vertical median
Surety Insurance (SIC 6351) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 7 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORIOld Republic International Corporation | 9.6 bn | 9.0 | 17.9% | 11.2% | +11.0% | −13% / +36% |
| ESNTEssent Group Ltd. | 6.2 bn | 9.7 | 12.0% | 51.5% | +1.5% | +12% / +41% |
| MTGMGIC Investment Corp | 5.8 bn | 9.0 | 13.8% | 58.1% | +0.5% | +3% / +66% |
| RDNRadian Group Inc | 4.8 bn | 9.4 | 11.5% | 32.6% | −0.8% | +3% / +42% |
| NMIHNMI Holdings, Inc. | 3.3 bn | 8.6 | 15.4% | 54.1% | +8.5% | +15% / +60% |
| AGOAssured Guaranty Ltd. | 3.2 bn | 9.6 | 6.3% | 37.3% | +27.3% | −20% / +7% |
| OSGOctave Specialty Group, Inc. | 235.2 m | — | -20.4% | -49.6% | +6.5% | −42% / −65% |
| MBIMbia Inc. | 230.6 m | — | — | -149.5% | +90.5% | −40% / −38% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for ESNT from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 44.80 Total return -34% · Per year -34% | 79.07 Total return 16% · Per year 16% | 118.93 Total return 74% · Per year 74% |
| 3 years | 46.60 Total return -28% · Per year -10% | 92.24 Total return 40% · Per year 12% | 151.87 Total return 128% · Per year 32% |
| 5 years | 48.46 Total return -22% · Per year -5% | 107.60 Total return 68% · Per year 11% | 193.95 Total return 197% · Per year 24% |
- Exit P/E± 23.06
- Net margin± 16.14
- Annual revenue growth± 12.82
- Annual dilution± 1.36
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Essent Group Ltd. (ESNT) provides private mortgage insurance, reinsurance, and title insurance and settlement services supporting US home financing. In the first half of 2026 the company reported NIW of 25.2 billion USD, while mortgage insurance in force reached 249.7 billion USD amid elevated mortgage rates that have slowed lending.
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
- If interest rates decline, refinancing and home purchase activity could recover and lift NIW 2.
- Expansion into property and casualty reinsurance through Lloyd's could diversify revenue beyond mortgages 12.
- New credit score models accepted by the GSEs could widen the eligible customer base over the medium term 2.
Risks
- Dependence on the GSEshigh
GSE policies on mortgage insurance can change business volumes, and a decision to reduce insurance use could affect revenue 1.
- Customer concentrationhigh
Losing a major customer could significantly reduce NIW and revenue, and customers can cancel coverage on insured loans 1.
- Reserves based on loans in defaultmedium
Establishing reserves only after a default occurs could concentrate losses in certain quarters without reflecting the full portfolio risk 1.
- Catastrophe and geopolitical riskmedium
Natural disasters and conflicts in sensitive regions could increase mortgage losses as well as reinsurance losses 21.
- Bermuda tax statuslow
Bermuda's corporate income tax could apply if the companies no longer meet the limited international presence exception, which could affect net income 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Steady cash flow from mortgage insurance, combined with a solid capital position, supports share repurchases and dividends, as shown in the August 2026 results 3.
- If mortgage rates decline, NIW could recover quickly given the large customer base and GSE approvals 21.
- Diversification into reinsurance, including through Lloyd's, could reduce dependence on the mortgage market and lift premium income 32.
What would break the thesis
- High interest rates could prolong the period of weak lending volumes, limiting growth in NIW and premium revenue 2.
- Dependence on a few large customers and on GSE decisions could quickly affect business volumes if a relationship or policy changes 1.
- Higher reserves after climate events or a weaker economic cycle could reduce profitability in the affected quarters 21.
What to watch
- Trend in NIW and portfolio persistencyQ3 2026
- Impact of VantageScore 4.0 and FICO 10T adoption on underwriting2027
- Performance of the Reinsurance segment after entry into the Lloyd's marketQ1 2027
- Maintenance of the Bermuda LIP exception and any effects of the corporate income taxnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Essent Group Ltd. is a Bermuda-based holding company serving the housing finance industry through private mortgage insurance, reinsurance, and title insurance and settlement services. Its core business runs through Essent Guaranty, a monoline mortgage guaranty insurer licensed in all 50 states and the District of Columbia and approved by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, while Essent Re, based in Bermuda, reinsures US mortgage risk in the GSE credit risk transfer market 1. The company has two reportable segments, Mortgage Insurance and Reinsurance, and its title business is included in Corporate & Other 12. According to the August 2026 results, the core business remains profitable, and the company announced a quarterly dividend and share repurchases 3.
Private mortgage insurance covers mainly low down payment mortgages that must be insured to be sold to the GSEs. Most policies are primary coverage written loan by loan, and premiums are largely paid monthly, so revenue builds up over time 1. Portfolio persistency and the pace of early repayments directly affect profitability, because single premium policies return differently from monthly premium policies 1.
The Reinsurance segment was separated as a reportable segment from December 31, 2025, and from 2026 Essent Re also reinsures property and casualty risks through Lloyd's of London 12. Revenue from underwriting consulting for third-party reinsurers and from title services depends on the number of loans processed 1.
Segments
Mortgage Insurance
The main segment, insuring US residential low down payment mortgages. NIW was 46.6 billion USD in 2025, and reached 25.2 billion USD in the first six months of 2026 12.
Market context
The US residential mortgage market is one of the largest in the world, and the GSEs hold or guarantee a significant share of mortgage debt 1. Private mortgage insurance covered about 15% of total origination volume in 2025, while high interest rates reduced home purchases and refinancing 12. Activity depends on the volume of low down payment loans, and a decline in interest rates could support origination volumes.
The private mortgage insurance market is concentrated, with six insurers approved by the GSEs, and competition is based on price, terms and underwriting standards 1. Pressure also comes from GSE risk-sharing programs and from government alternatives such as FHA and VA 1.
Trends
- High interest ratesmixed
Mortgage rates have stayed elevated, reducing purchase and refinance activity and lowering NIW and title transaction volumes. At the same time, higher rates have raised investment income and portfolio persistency 2.
- Reinsurance growth and diversificationtailwind
Entry into the Lloyd's market and reinsurance of property and casualty risks extend activity beyond residential mortgages. Reinsurance premiums grew sharply in the first half of 2026 compared with the same period of 2025 13.
- Changes to GSE credit score modelsmixed
FHFA announced acceptance of the VantageScore 4.0 model and the move toward FICO 10T. Insured volume under these models was negligible in the first half of 2026, but the change could alter underwriting standards over the medium term 2.
- Geopolitical tensions and catastrophe riskheadwind
Conflicts in the Middle East could affect interest rates, consumer behaviour and property and casualty losses in reinsurance. The 2024 hurricanes created reserve uncertainty, and climate risks remain a source of volatility 21.
Competitive position
Private insurers compete with government programs such as FHA and VA, with state mortgage insurance funds and with alternative structures such as 80-10-10 piggyback loans 1. GSE risk-sharing programs and offshore reinsurance could reduce the share held by traditional insurers 1.
- MGIC Investment CorporationMTG
GSE-approved private mortgage insurer, one of the six competitors named in the sources as active in the market 1.
- Radian GroupRDN
GSE-approved private mortgage insurer, cited as part of the group of six industry competitors 1.
- Federal Housing Administration (FHA)
Government mortgage insurance program that could gain market share if it lowers premiums or loosens underwriting 1.
- State mortgage insurance funds (for example California and New York)
State-supported mortgage insurance funds that offer alternatives to private insurance in certain markets 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report07 Aug 2026
- Current report07 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report08 May 2026
- Current report08 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement26 Mar 2026
- Annual report18 Feb 2026
- Current report13 Feb 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report07 Nov 2025
- Current report07 Nov 2025Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report08 Aug 2025
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Essent Group Ltd. · 18 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Essent Group Ltd. · 07 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Essent Group Ltd. · 07 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.