olivLaw · US equity research
Radian Group Inc. RDN
Surety Insurance · SIC 6351 · Vertical: Surety Insurance (SIC 6351)
Radian Group is a U.S. mortgage insurer that, after the February 2026 Inigo acquisition, has become a global multi-line specialty insurer. For the second quarter of 2026 the company reported revenue of 575 million USD, and the Specialty segment reached 53% of net premiums earned, a shift in profile relevant to investors.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Radian Group Inc. (RDN) stock was 36.56 USD (+2.01% on the day), with market capitalisation 4.8 bn USD, P/E 9.4 on diluted EPS of 3.89 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 2.79%, beta 0.46, 52-week range 30.61–39.71 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 575.0 m USD (+92.6% YoY), net income of 115.9 m USD (−18.3% YoY), diluted EPS 0.85 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 62.7
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 32.90 – 36.72
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.96 · band width 11.0%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 34.79 / 35.26
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.48 / 0.25
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +9.1% | −1.1% | +10.2 pp | — |
| 3 months | −6.7% | −0.5% | −6.2 pp | — |
| 6 months | +2.3% | +4.4% | −2.1 pp | — |
| Year to date | +1.6% | +12.3% | −10.7 pp | — |
| 1 year | +6.6% | +13.5% | −7.0 pp | −13.3% |
| 3 years | +34.8% | +76.4% | −41.7 pp | +36.3% |
| 5 years | +60.6% | +63.7% | −3.1 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 313.4 m | 292.7 m | 294.8 m | 298.6 m | 303.2 m | 300.5 m | 466.3 m | 575.0 m |
| Cost of revenue | 9.5 m | 9.9 m | 8.8 m | 8.4 m | — | — | — | — |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 12.3 m ≈ | -31.6 m | 14.4 m | 26.7 m ≈ | 2.6 m ≈ | -33.7 m | — | — |
| Interest expense | 21.9 m | 16.6 m | 16.5 m | 17.4 m | 17.2 m | 17.2 m | 20.6 m | 22.3 m |
| Pre-tax income | 214.3 m | 210.4 m | 198.7 m | 192.8 m | 198.7 m | 201.0 m | 173.7 m | 150.7 m |
| Income tax | 47.8 m | 46.6 m | 46.6 m | 38.3 m | 45.9 m | 42.2 m | 44.2 m | 32.5 m |
| Net income | 151.9 m | 148.3 m | 144.6 m | 141.8 m | 141.4 m | 154.8 m | 124.1 m | 115.9 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.98 | 1.02 | 1.03 | 1.12 | 0.89 | 0.85 |
| Operating cash flow | -237.9 m ≈ | -269.4 m | 67.8 m | -713.3 m ≈ | 358.4 m ≈ | 407.0 m | 285.0 m | 342.9 m ≈ |
| Capex | -1.2 m ≈ | 172.0 k | 1.1 m | 1.2 m ≈ | 1.0 m ≈ | 870.0 k | 749.0 k | 225.0 k ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 37.2 m ≈ | 36.7 m | 37.3 m | 38.6 m ≈ | 34.8 m ≈ | 34.9 m | 35.3 m | 37.3 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 49.0 m ≈ | 76.0 m | 208.9 m | 223.0 m ≈ | 0 ≈ | 0 | 50.0 m | 80.3 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 74 percentile of its own 39-quarter history (min 4.2, median 8.1, max 38.2; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +4.2% | +19.9% | −5.8% | −7.6% | −10.5% | −1.1% | +2.5% | −0.8% |
| Net income | 606.0 m | 672.3 m | 393.6 m | 600.7 m | 742.9 m | 603.1 m | 604.4 m | 582.6 m |
| Net income YoY | +400.5% | +10.9% | −41.5% | +52.6% | +23.7% | −18.8% | +0.2% | −3.6% |
| Diluted EPS | 2.77 | 3.20 | 2.00 | 3.16 | 4.35 | 3.77 | 3.92 | 4.14 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +403.6% | +15.5% | −37.5% | +58.0% | +37.7% | −13.3% | +4.0% | +5.6% |
| net % | 47.6% | 44.0% | 27.4% | 45.2% | 62.4% | 51.2% | 50.1% | 48.7% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | 544.5 m | 370.6 m | 520.9 m | -665.1 m | 115.7 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 24.8 m USD
- Financial debt
- 1.1 bn USD
- Net debt
- 1.1 bn USD
- Equity
- 4.8 bn USD
- Total assets
- 8.1 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.23x
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 12.4%
- ROA
- 6.9%
- FCF margin
- 9.7%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-tax income | 479.4 m | 764.8 m | 952.8 m | 863.9 m | 845.6 m | 791.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 393.6 m | 600.7 m | 742.9 m | 603.1 m | 604.4 m | 582.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 2.00 | 3.16 | 4.35 | 3.77 | 3.92 | 4.14 | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | — | 0.55 | 0.80 | 0.90 | 0.98 | 1.02 | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 87.9 m | 151.1 m | 56.2 m | 19.0 m | 19.2 m | 24.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 7.9 bn | 7.8 bn | 7.1 bn | 7.6 bn | 8.7 bn | 8.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | — | — | — | — | — | 33.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 08 May 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | — | — | — | — | — | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 08 May 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 3.7 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.2 bn | 4.1 bn | 3.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 4.3 bn † | 4.3 bn † | 3.9 bn † | 4.4 bn † | 4.6 bn † | 4.8 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dividends paid | 97.5 m | 103.3 m | 135.4 m | 145.9 m | 152.0 m | 145.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 226.3 m | 399.1 m | 400.2 m | 133.3 m | 225.1 m | 431.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Market and valuation
Insurance
32 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 47 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 4.8 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation53
- Returns75
- Quality33
- Balance sheet100
- Growth1
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 13.40 – 56.60 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- Residual income37.34 – 39.05 (Mid 38.18)
- Justified P/B42.08 – 56.60 (Mid 48.27)
- Dividend discount (DDM)13.40 – 18.03 (Mid 15.38)
- Peers: P/E35.01 – 37.50 (Mid 35.16)5 companies used · median multiple 9.0x · quartiles 9.0x – 9.6xAGO, ESNT, MTG, NMIH, ORI
- Peers: P/B25.64 – 44.18 (Mid 41.72)6 companies used · median multiple 1.1x · quartiles 0.7x – 1.2xAGO, ESNT, MTG, NMIH, ORI, OSG
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 47/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROE · Quality | 11.5% | 33 (vs peers) | 20% |
| Loss ratio · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -1.6% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 0.2% | 2 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| ROA · Balance sheet | 5.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| P/B · Valuation | 1.0x | 67 (vs peers) | 16% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 9.4x | 40 (vs peers) | 16% |
| Dividend yield · Returns | 2.8% | 60 (vs peers) | 11% |
| Payout ratio (EPS) · Returns | 26.2% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet100/100 · 1/1 factors with a value
- Growth1/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial33/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Returns75/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation53/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
RADIAN GROUP INC (RDN). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: YoY growth -0.8%; net margin 32.6%; ROE 11.5%.
The estimated value range is 35.01–39.05 USD per share (median of 5 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 38.18 USD, the price of 36.56 USD leaves a potential of 4.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 4.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 47/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: quality. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROA: 5.3%
- Payout ratio (EPS): 26.2%
What contradicts it
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -1.6%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 0.2%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Loss ratio.
Versus the vertical median
Surety Insurance (SIC 6351) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 7 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORIOld Republic International Corporation | 9.6 bn | 9.0 | 17.9% | 11.2% | +11.0% | −13% / +36% |
| ESNTEssent Group Ltd. | 6.2 bn | 9.7 | 12.0% | 51.5% | +1.5% | +10% / +43% |
| MTGMGIC Investment Corp | 5.8 bn | 9.0 | 13.8% | 58.1% | +0.5% | +3% / +66% |
| RDNRadian Group Inc | 4.8 bn | 9.4 | 11.5% | 32.6% | −0.8% | +7% / +35% |
| NMIHNMI Holdings, Inc. | 3.3 bn | 8.6 | 15.4% | 54.1% | +8.5% | +15% / +60% |
| AGOAssured Guaranty Ltd. | 3.2 bn | 9.6 | 6.3% | 37.3% | +27.3% | −20% / +7% |
| OSGOctave Specialty Group, Inc. | 235.2 m | — | -20.4% | -49.6% | +6.5% | −42% / −65% |
| MBIMbia Inc. | 230.6 m | — | — | -149.5% | +90.5% | −40% / −38% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for RDN from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 21.54 Total return -39% · Per year -39% | 38.17 Total return 7% · Per year 7% | 57.60 Total return 61% · Per year 61% |
| 3 years | 19.13 Total return -41% · Per year -16% | 38.30 Total return 14% · Per year 4% | 63.72 Total return 85% · Per year 23% |
| 5 years | 16.99 Total return -44% · Per year -11% | 38.44 Total return 20% · Per year 4% | 70.49 Total return 112% · Per year 16% |
- Exit P/E± 9.58
- Net margin± 6.70
- Annual revenue growth± 5.74
- Annual dilution± 0.56
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Radian Group is a U.S. mortgage insurer that, after the February 2026 Inigo acquisition, has become a global multi-line specialty insurer. For the second quarter of 2026 the company reported revenue of 575 million USD, and the Specialty segment reached 53% of net premiums earned, a shift in profile relevant to investors.
SWOT
Strengths
- Leading position in private mortgage insurance and a large insured portfolio of high-quality loans 1.
- Capital generation capacity in the Mortgage segment, supported by large dividends from the insurance subsidiary 2.
- Diversification through the Specialty segment, which broadened the revenue base after the Inigo acquisition 3.
Weaknesses
- Historical dependence on one segment, mortgage insurance, exposes the company to the housing cycle and government policy 1.
- The Specialty segment posted a high combined ratio in the second quarter, showing pressure on margins 3.
- Integrating Inigo and its control systems could slow the realization of expected benefits 2.
Opportunities
- Growth in mortgage credit volume and purchase demand could support new insurance written 1.
- Expansion into specialty insurance and reinsurance could diversify revenues if markets remain favorable 2.
- Completing the sale of non-core businesses could simplify the portfolio and focus capital on insurance 3.
Risks
- GSE eligibilityhigh
If the Radian Guaranty subsidiary fails to maintain its eligibility under PMIERs, the mortgage insurance business could face significant restrictions 1.
- Inigo integrationmedium
Integrating a Lloyd's company, its systems and internal controls could create unforeseen operational and financial risks 2.
- Specialty underwriting riskhigh
Loss reserves tied to geopolitical conflicts could rise if claims expand 3.
- Housing cyclemedium
A decline in house prices or a rise in unemployment could affect default rates and Mortgage segment results 1.
- Holding company liquiditylow
Available holding company liquidity fell to 412 million USD at June 30, 2026, which could limit share repurchases and dividends 3.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the Mortgage segment keeps its profitability and capital generation, the company could fund Specialty growth without reducing dividends.
- Diversifying into specialty insurance could reduce dependence on the mortgage cycle and could stabilize long-term revenues.
- Simplifying the portfolio by selling non-core businesses could focus management on the core insurance franchise.
What would break the thesis
- If the Specialty combined ratio stays high, consolidated margins could be compressed in coming quarters.
- PMIERs and Basel III rules could limit the subsidiary's ability to distribute capital to the holding company.
- Integrating Inigo and a change in leadership could delay strategy execution and affect investor confidence.
What to watch
- Combined ratio and reserve trends in the Specialty segment after the Inigo integrationQ3 2026
- Completion of the Title business sale and its effect on assets held for saleend of 2026
- Ordinary dividends from Radian Guaranty to the holding company, expected at about 650 million USD2026
- Primary loan default rate and credit trends in the Mortgage portfolionext 10-Q
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Radian Group is a holding company operating through insurance subsidiaries and presents itself as a major provider of private mortgage insurance in the United States. Its core activity, the Mortgage Insurance segment, distributes U.S. mortgage credit risk for lenders and mortgage credit investors, mainly through private insurance on first-lien residential loans 1. In 2025 the company wrote 55.2 billion USD of new insurance (NIW), and insurance in force (IIF) reached 282.5 billion USD at December 31, 2025 1. Since February 2026, after the Inigo acquisition, the company reports two segments, Mortgage and Specialty 2.
Segments
Mortgage
The Mortgage segment insures residential mortgage loans, and its profitability depends on premiums earned, default-related losses and portfolio persistency. In the second quarter of 2026, primary insurance in force reached 284 billion USD and new insurance written was 16 billion USD 3. The segment combined ratio was 36%, indicating a high operating margin 3.
Specialty
The Specialty segment, introduced through the Inigo acquisition, covers specialty insurance and reinsurance through Lloyd's. In the second quarter of 2026, total gross premiums written were 504 million USD, of which 275 million was reinsurance, and the combined ratio was 98% 3. The segment is still being integrated, and its results may fluctuate with market conditions and loss reserves 2.
Market context
According to the 10-K, total mortgage originations could reach about 2.3 trillion USD in 2026, an increase of 15% over 2025, and the private mortgage insurance market could be moderately larger than the estimated 300 billion USD in 2025 1. Low refinancing activity and stable credit support persistency, but penetration depends on competition with FHA and VA 1. In Specialty, rates are softening across several insurance and reinsurance lines, which could reduce premium income 2.
Trends
- Refinancing rate sensitivitymixed
If interest rates decline, refinancing activity could rise, which could affect portfolio persistency and premium income 1.
- Softening reinsurance pricesheadwind
Excess capacity after a benign 2025 loss year could compress premiums in specialty lines, including reinsurance 12.
- Credit score modernizationmixed
The GSE shift to VantageScore 4.0 and FICO 10T is not expected by management to have a material impact on the business 2.
- Basel III rules for mortgage insurancemixed
March 2026 proposals keep mortgage insurance as a prudent underwriting standard but could change risk weights, with future effects on bank demand 2.
Competitive position
Private mortgage insurance competes among private insurers and with the federal FHA and VA programs on price and other factors 1. Risk-based pricing and PMIERs capital conditions shape each insurer's competitive position 1. In Specialty, competition in Lloyd's and reinsurance markets varies by line and available capacity 2.
- Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Corporation
Direct competitor in private mortgage insurance, named in the market context of the available sources without its own financial data.
- Essent GroupESNT
Private mortgage insurer competing in the same U.S. market and business category.
- MGIC Investment CorporationMTG
Private mortgage insurer competing in the same market segment.
- Federal Housing Administration
Public program competing with private insurance for eligible mortgage loans.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report03 Nov 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report28 Oct 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Current report11 Aug 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report07 Aug 2026
- Current report06 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report27 May 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Shareholder vote
- Current report21 May 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report08 May 2026
- Current report07 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report21 Apr 2026Departure or appointment of officers
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Radian Group Inc. · 20 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Radian Group Inc. · 07 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Radian Group Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.