olivLaw · US equity research
Octave Specialty Group, Inc. OSG
Surety Insurance · SIC 6351 · Vertical: Surety Insurance (SIC 6351)
Octave Specialty Group is a financial services holding company that combines specialty insurance distribution through MGA/Us with underwriting through Everspan. In the second quarter of 2026 the distribution segment grew 77%, while Everspan is still being repositioned, which matters for the direction of the company.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Octave Specialty Group, Inc. (OSG) stock was 5.22 USD (+4.19% on the day), with market capitalisation 235.2 m USD, beta 0.57, 52-week range 3.94–10.08 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 83.0 m USD (+51.0% YoY), net income of -12.2 m USD, diluted EPS -0.33 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 66.0
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 4.45 – 5.16
- above the upper band · %B 1.08 · band width 14.7%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 4.66 / 5.20
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.13 / 0.08
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +14.0% | −1.1% | +15.1 pp | — |
| 3 months | −8.1% | −0.5% | −7.6 pp | — |
| 6 months | +23.7% | +4.4% | +19.3 pp | — |
| Year to date | −32.9% | +12.3% | −45.2 pp | — |
| 1 year | −36.9% | +13.5% | −50.4 pp | +2.8% |
| 3 years | −58.2% | +76.4% | −134.7 pp | +42.2% |
| 5 years | −69.3% | +63.7% | −133.0 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 70.0 m | 65.2 m | 62.8 m | 55.0 m | 66.6 m | 66.9 m | 104.2 m | 83.0 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 7.1 m | 9.6 m | 9.2 m | 9.7 m | 9.7 m | 13.3 m | 12.2 m | 12.3 m |
| Interest expense | 20.0 m | -41.6 m | 5.5 m | 5.6 m | 6.2 m | 1.4 m | 2.1 m | 2.8 m |
| Pre-tax income | -20.8 m | -21.1 m | -15.1 m | -23.0 m | -32.1 m | -30.9 m | -3.3 m | -11.7 m |
| Income tax | -867.0 k | 1.7 m | -617.0 k | -2.2 m | -1.2 m | 9.2 m | -481.0 k | 485.0 k |
| Net income | -27.5 m | -548.3 m | -46.4 m | -73.0 m | -112.6 m | -27.4 m | -6.9 m | -12.2 m |
| Diluted EPS | -0.63 | -10.23 | -1.21 | -1.51 | -2.35 | -0.61 ≈ | -0.13 | -0.33 |
| Operating cash flow | 48.9 m ≈ | — | -12.6 m | 2.1 m ≈ | -41.2 m ≈ | — | — | — |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 622.0 m | 511.0 m | 496.0 m | 156.0 m | 53.6 m | 124.7 m | 235.8 m | 251.2 m |
| Revenue YoY | +22.7% | −17.8% | −2.9% | −68.5% | unavailable | +132.6% | +89.1% | +6.5% |
| Net income | -329.0 m | 186.0 m | -216.0 m | -437.0 m | 522.1 m | 5.0 m | -556.1 m | -259.1 m |
| Net income YoY | −539.6% | unavailable | −216.1% | unavailable | unavailable | −99.1% | −11,331.8% | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | -7.25 | 3.99 | -4.69 | -9.47 | 11.48 | 0.18 | -11.96 | -5.93 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −542.1% | unavailable | −217.5% | unavailable | unavailable | −98.4% | −6,744.4% | unavailable |
| net % | -52.9% | 36.4% | -43.5% | -280.1% | 973.9% | 4.0% | -235.8% | -103.1% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 68.4 m USD
- Financial debt
- 117.6 m USD
- Net debt
- 49.1 m USD
- Equity
- 833.2 m USD
- Total assets
- 2.2 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.14x
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- -28.3%
- ROA
- -5.0%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2019 | 2020 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-tax income | -183.0 m | -440.0 m | -35.7 m | -24.2 m | -59.8 m | -101.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | -216.0 m | -437.0 m | 522.1 m | 5.0 m | -556.1 m | -259.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -4.69 | -9.47 | 11.48 | 0.18 | -11.96 | -5.93 | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2019 | 2020 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 24.0 m | 20.0 m | 6.3 m | 7.3 m | 29.6 m | 68.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 06 May 2026verified |
| Total assets | 13.3 bn | 13.2 bn | 8.0 bn | 8.4 bn | 8.1 bn | 2.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | — | — | — | — | 150.0 m | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 2.8 bn | 2.7 bn | 639.0 m | 508.0 m | 0 | 117.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 11.8 bn | 12.1 bn | 6.6 bn | 7.0 bn | 6.9 bn | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 1.5 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | 996.1 m | 833.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2019 | 2020 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share repurchases | — | — | 14.2 m | 4.5 m | 11.7 m | 29.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Market and valuation
Insurance
32 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 4 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 48.0% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 235.2 m USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
48% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 7.09 – 18.65 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- Residual income7.09 – 7.40 (Mid 7.24)
- Justified P/Bunavailable · insufficient data
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Peers: P/B16.70 – 18.65 (Mid 17.81)4 companies used · median multiple 1.1x · quartiles 1.1x – 1.2xESNT, MTG, NMIH, RDN
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 48.0% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROE · Quality | -20.4% | 0 (vs peers) | 38% |
| Loss ratio · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 67.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| ROA · Balance sheet | -2.9% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| P/B · Valuation | 0.3x | 100 (vs peers) | 29% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Dividend yield · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (EPS) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet0/100 · 1/1 factors with a value
- Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Octave Specialty Group, Inc. (OSG). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: YoY growth 6.5%; net margin -49.6%; ROE -20.4%.
The estimated value range is 11.90–13.02 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 12.52 USD, the price of 5.22 USD leaves a potential of 139.9% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 58.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 48.0% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 67.3%
- P/B: 0.3x
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- ROE: -20.4%
- ROA: -2.9%
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Loss ratio, EPS CAGR 3Y, P/E (TTM), Dividend yield, Payout ratio (EPS).
Versus the vertical median
Surety Insurance (SIC 6351) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 7 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORIOld Republic International Corporation | 9.6 bn | 9.0 | 17.9% | 11.2% | +11.0% | −13% / +36% |
| ESNTEssent Group Ltd. | 6.2 bn | 9.7 | 12.0% | 51.5% | +1.5% | +10% / +43% |
| MTGMGIC Investment Corp | 5.8 bn | 9.0 | 13.8% | 58.1% | +0.5% | +3% / +66% |
| RDNRadian Group Inc | 4.8 bn | 9.4 | 11.5% | 32.6% | −0.8% | +3% / +42% |
| NMIHNMI Holdings, Inc. | 3.3 bn | 8.6 | 15.4% | 54.1% | +8.5% | +15% / +60% |
| AGOAssured Guaranty Ltd. | 3.2 bn | 9.6 | 6.3% | 37.3% | +27.3% | −20% / +7% |
| OSGOctave Specialty Group, Inc. | 235.2 m | — | -20.4% | -49.6% | +6.5% | −37% / −58% |
| MBIMbia Inc. | 230.6 m | — | — | -149.5% | +90.5% | −40% / −38% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for OSG from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Octave Specialty Group is a financial services holding company that combines specialty insurance distribution through MGA/Us with underwriting through Everspan. In the second quarter of 2026 the distribution segment grew 77%, while Everspan is still being repositioned, which matters for the direction of the company 123.
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- P&C market cyclehigh
Revenues depend on market premiums and commissions, and a soft market could reduce profits 1.
- Everspan resultshigh
The elevated combined ratio in the first half of 2026 shows pressure on the segment's underwriting 3.
- Catastrophic eventsmedium
Unexpected losses could exceed reinsurance protection and affect results 1.
- Regulationmedium
Capital requirements and legislative changes could impose extra costs or restrictions 1.
- Litigation and reputationlow
Fraud or misconduct by business partners could damage reputation and results 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
What would break the thesis
What to watch
- Everspan combined ratio trendQ3 2026
- Updated 2026 guidance presented on the earnings callQ3 2026
- Results from the rollout of the AI underwriting platform2027
- Changes in property market pricing and the effect on commissionsnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Octave Specialty Group, Inc. (OSG) is a financial services holding company based in New York City that renamed itself from Ambac Financial Group in the fourth quarter of 2025, after selling its Legacy Financial Guarantee business 1. It runs two segments: Insurance Distribution, including MGA/Us and an insurance broker, and Specialty Property & Casualty Insurance, operated as Everspan 1. The ArmadaCorp acquisition, closed on October 31, 2025 for 250 million USD, extended the distribution segment into accident and health insurance 1. The stock is listed on the NYSE 3.
The stated strategy is to grow organically by launching new MGA/Us and making selective acquisitions, supported by a centralized shared services platform 1. Commission revenue depends on the percentage of premiums placed and can be seasonal in the first and fourth quarters 1. Everspan retains part of its risk and cedes the rest to reinsurers, retaining about 20.5% of gross written premium in 2025 1.
According to the annual report, premiums placed in the distribution segment reached 951,781 thousand USD in 2025, versus 493,373 thousand USD in 2024, a rise driven largely by acquisitions and new lines of business 1. Consolidated revenues nevertheless remained under pressure from the market cycle and Everspan's results 12.
Segments
Market context
Trends
- Growth of the E&S markettailwind
The excess & surplus lines market has grown faster than the admitted market, which supports the company's MGA/U model 1.
- Softening property marketheadwind
Management describes increasingly soft property conditions, which could reduce premiums and commissions if the trend continues 13.
- Cyclicality of the P&C marketmixed
Pricing has been firm in recent years, but in some lines it is already falling, and a soft market could reduce revenues 1.
- AI in underwritingtailwind
The company has launched its own AI underwriting platform, which could speed decisions and bring more MGAs to market 3.
Competitive position
The MGA/U sector is fragmented and competitive. Main competitors include other MGA/U aggregators, wholesale brokers and carriers that write insurance without intermediaries 1.
The company's stated advantages are its partnership model with MGA principals, managed capacity, shared services and long-standing carrier relationships 1.
- Amynta
MGA/U aggregator named as a main competitor in the distribution business.
- Ryan Specialty
Wholesale broker named as a competitor for specialty distribution business.
- Carriers writing without MGA/Us
Insurers that write business directly and compete for the same clients.
- Other MGA/Us in the fragmented market
Many MGA/Us compete for capacity and distribution access.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Self-aligned optical microcomb emerging between octave-separated lasersNature · 30 Sept 2026 · EN
SEC filings
- Quarterly report06 Aug 2026
- Current report06 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report29 May 2026Shareholder vote
- Quarterly report06 May 2026
- Current report06 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement10 Apr 2026
- Current report07 Apr 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
- Annual report04 Mar 2026
- Current report23 Feb 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report06 Jan 2026Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Octave Specialty Group, Inc. · 04 Mar 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Octave Specialty Group, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Octave Specialty Group, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.