olivLaw · US equity research
NMI Holdings, Inc. NMIH
Surety Insurance · SIC 6351 · Vertical: Surety Insurance (SIC 6351)
NMI Holdings, through its subsidiary National Mortgage Insurance Corporation, provides private mortgage insurance that protects lenders and investors against losses from defaults on low down payment loans. By June 2026 the company carried a primary insurance-in-force of 227.1 billion dollars, and new insurance written in fiscal 2025 reached 48.9 billion dollars, which makes it relevant as the US mortgage market evolves.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, NMI Holdings, Inc. (NMIH) stock was 43.96 USD (+1.50% on the day), with market capitalisation 3.3 bn USD, P/E 8.6 on diluted EPS of 5.08 USD over the last 12 months, beta 0.51, 52-week range 35.42–45.71 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 187.9 m USD (+8.1% YoY), net income of 105.8 m USD (+10.0% YoY), diluted EPS 1.38 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 63.5
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 38.78 – 44.38
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.92 · band width 13.5%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 42.16 / 40.29
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.58 / 0.23
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +11.6% | −1.1% | +12.7 pp | — |
| 3 months | −2.2% | −0.5% | −1.7 pp | — |
| 6 months | +14.9% | +4.4% | +10.5 pp | — |
| Year to date | +7.8% | +12.3% | −4.5 pp | — |
| 1 year | +17.2% | +13.5% | +3.6 pp | −13.3% |
| 3 years | +50.9% | +76.4% | −25.6 pp | +36.3% |
| 5 years | +93.7% | +63.7% | +30.1 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 166.1 m | 166.5 m | 173.2 m | 173.8 m | 178.7 m | 180.7 m | 183.5 m | 187.9 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 3.0 m ≈ | 2.9 m | 2.9 m | 2.8 m ≈ | 2.8 m ≈ | 2.7 m | 2.5 m | 2.5 m ≈ |
| Interest expense | 7.1 m | 7.1 m | 7.1 m | 7.1 m | 7.1 m | 7.1 m | 7.1 m | 7.1 m |
| Pre-tax income | 119.3 m | 110.9 m | 131.4 m | 123.6 m | 123.7 m | 121.1 m | 124.9 m | 136.9 m |
| Income tax | 26.5 m | 24.7 m | 28.8 m | 27.5 m | 27.7 m | 26.9 m | 25.6 m | 31.2 m |
| Net income | 92.8 m | 86.2 m | 102.6 m | 96.2 m | 96.0 m | 94.2 m | 99.3 m | 105.8 m |
| Diluted EPS | 1.15 | 1.07 ≈ | 1.28 | 1.21 | 1.22 | 1.20 ≈ | 1.28 | 1.38 |
| Operating cash flow | 128.4 m ≈ | 35.8 m | 101.2 m | 128.4 m ≈ | 128.0 m ≈ | 61.7 m | 116.1 m | 142.6 m ≈ |
| Capex | 1.5 m ≈ | 1.4 m | 1.7 m | 1.6 m ≈ | 1.8 m ≈ | 1.6 m | 1.1 m | 2.4 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 16.9 m ≈ | 28.7 m | 25.9 m | 24.0 m ≈ | 24.6 m ≈ | 30.6 m | 27.7 m | 32.3 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 51 percentile of its own 39-quarter history (min 4.3, median 8.3, max 47.2; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 275.0 m | 378.8 m | 433.3 m | 485.1 m | 523.3 m | 579.0 m | 651.0 m | 706.4 m |
| Revenue YoY | +50.5% | +37.7% | +14.4% | +12.0% | +7.9% | +10.6% | +12.4% | +8.5% |
| Net income | 107.9 m | 172.0 m | 171.6 m | 231.1 m | 292.9 m | 322.1 m | 360.1 m | 388.9 m |
| Net income YoY | +389.5% | +59.3% | −0.2% | +34.7% | +26.7% | +10.0% | +11.8% | +8.0% |
| Diluted EPS | 1.60 | 2.47 | 2.13 | 2.65 | 3.39 | 3.84 | 4.43 | 4.92 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +357.1% | +54.4% | −13.8% | +24.4% | +27.9% | +13.3% | +15.4% | +11.1% |
| net % | 39.2% | 45.4% | 39.6% | 47.6% | 56.0% | 55.6% | 55.3% | 55.1% |
| Free cash flow | 137.8 m | 198.2 m | 240.4 m | 313.5 m | 302.8 m | 333.3 m | 386.7 m | 412.5 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 43.9 m USD
- Financial debt
- unavailable USD
- Net debt
- unavailable USD
- Equity
- 2.6 bn USD
- Total assets
- 3.8 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 16.2%
- ROA
- 10.8%
- FCF margin
- 58.4%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-tax income | 218.1 m | 296.7 m | 377.3 m | 412.7 m | 463.4 m | 499.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 171.6 m | 231.1 m | 292.9 m | 322.1 m | 360.1 m | 388.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 2.13 | 2.65 | 3.39 | 3.84 | 4.43 | 4.92 | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 126.9 m | 76.6 m | 44.4 m | 96.7 m | 54.3 m | 43.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 2.2 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 393.3 m | 394.6 m | 396.1 m | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Feb 2023verified |
| Total liabilities | 797.1 m | 884.8 m | 902.3 m | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 1.4 bn † | 1.6 bn † | 1.6 bn † | 1.9 bn † | 2.2 bn † | 2.6 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share repurchases | 0 | 0 | 56.6 m | 91.6 m | 97.6 m | 105.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Market and valuation
Insurance
32 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 80 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 3.3 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet100
- Growth100
- Valuation58
- Quality83
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 24.52 – 80.16 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- Residual income40.32 – 42.23 (Mid 41.26)
- Justified P/B59.60 – 80.16 (Mid 68.37)
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
- Peers: P/E45.95 – 49.01 (Mid 47.79)5 companies used · median multiple 9.4x · quartiles 9.0x – 9.6xAGO, ESNT, MTG, ORI, RDN
- Peers: P/B24.52 – 42.14 (Mid 37.88)6 companies used · median multiple 1.1x · quartiles 0.7x – 1.2xAGO, ESNT, MTG, ORI, OSG, RDN
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 80/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROE · Quality | 15.4% | 83 (vs peers) | 25% |
| Loss ratio · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 13.2% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 10.5% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| ROA · Balance sheet | 10.4% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| P/B · Valuation | 1.2x | 17 (vs peers) | 19% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 8.6x | 100 (vs peers) | 19% |
| Dividend yield · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (EPS) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet100/100 · 1/1 factors with a value
- Growth100/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial83/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation58/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
NMI Holdings, Inc. (NMIH). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: YoY growth 8.5%; net margin 54.1%; ROE 15.4%.
The estimated value range is 43.14–45.62 USD per share (median of 4 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 44.52 USD, the price of 43.96 USD leaves a potential of 1.3% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 1.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 80/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: quality, returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROE: 15.4%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 13.2%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 10.5%
- ROA: 10.4%
- P/E (TTM): 8.6x
What contradicts it
- P/B: 1.2x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Loss ratio, Dividend yield, Payout ratio (EPS).
Versus the vertical median
Surety Insurance (SIC 6351) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 7 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORIOld Republic International Corporation | 9.6 bn | 9.0 | 17.9% | 11.2% | +11.0% | −13% / +36% |
| ESNTEssent Group Ltd. | 6.2 bn | 9.7 | 12.0% | 51.5% | +1.5% | +10% / +43% |
| MTGMGIC Investment Corp | 5.8 bn | 9.0 | 13.8% | 58.1% | +0.5% | +3% / +66% |
| RDNRadian Group Inc | 4.8 bn | 9.4 | 11.5% | 32.6% | −0.8% | +3% / +42% |
| NMIHNMI Holdings, Inc. | 3.3 bn | 8.6 | 15.4% | 54.1% | +8.5% | +17% / +51% |
| AGOAssured Guaranty Ltd. | 3.2 bn | 9.6 | 6.3% | 37.3% | +27.3% | −20% / +7% |
| OSGOctave Specialty Group, Inc. | 235.2 m | — | -20.4% | -49.6% | +6.5% | −42% / −65% |
| MBIMbia Inc. | 230.6 m | — | — | -149.5% | +90.5% | −40% / −38% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for NMIH from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 28.48 Total return -35% · Per year -35% | 50.22 Total return 14% · Per year 14% | 75.46 Total return 72% · Per year 72% |
| 3 years | 31.09 Total return -29% · Per year -11% | 61.34 Total return 40% · Per year 12% | 100.69 Total return 129% · Per year 32% |
| 5 years | 33.93 Total return -23% · Per year -5% | 74.92 Total return 70% · Per year 11% | 134.36 Total return 206% · Per year 25% |
- Exit P/E± 15.33
- Net margin± 10.73
- Annual revenue growth± 8.33
- Annual dilution± 0.90
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
NMI Holdings, through its subsidiary National Mortgage Insurance Corporation, provides private mortgage insurance that protects lenders and investors against losses from defaults on low down payment loans. By June 2026 the company carried a primary insurance-in-force of 227.1 billion dollars, and new insurance written in fiscal 2025 reached 48.9 billion dollars, which makes it relevant as the US mortgage market evolves.
SWOT
Strengths
- Large, high-quality portfolio with high persistency and a capital position that exceeds PMIERs requirements 13.
- Proprietary Rate GPS pricing platform that allows granular, loan-level premium setting 1.
- Broad customer base of thousands of active lenders, with no single customer above ten percent of revenue 1.
Weaknesses
- Relatively small compared with competitors that belong to diversified groups with access to cheaper capital 1.
- Revenue depends on a single product and a single market, which exposes the company to US mortgage cycles 1.
- Debt and dependence on financial strength ratings could limit access to capital if those ratings deteriorate 1.
Opportunities
Risks
- Intense competitionhigh
Six private insurers compete for the same lenders, and price cuts or looser criteria could reduce the company's revenue 1.
- Dependence on the GSEshigh
Approved-insurer status and demand for insured loans depend on the GSEs, and changes to their policies could shrink the market 1.
- Economic cycle and claimsmedium
Falling home prices or rising unemployment could increase defaults and claims beyond expected rates 12.
- Financial strength ratingsmedium
A downgrade of NMIC could affect its eligibility with GSEs and its access to the non-GSE market 1.
- Operational and data risklow
Errors, fraud or failures in technology systems at the company or its service providers could cause losses and complaints 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If new volume stays strong and the loss ratio stays low, the large and persistent portfolio could support stable premium income for several years 13.
- Gradual adoption of VantageScore 4.0 and a larger private share could open further growth 12.
- Strong capital and a high return on equity could give flexibility for new reinsurance arrangements 3.
What would break the thesis
What to watch
- Trends in the loss ratio and new insurance writtenQ3 2026
- Lender adoption of VantageScore 4.0 and the volume insured under it2027
- Any change in GSE policy on the use of MI2027
- NMIC's financial strength ratings and any outlook changesnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
NMI Holdings, a Delaware company listed on Nasdaq as NMIH, provides mortgage insurance (MI) through NMIC, its main subsidiary, regulated by the Wisconsin OCI, approved as a GSE provider and licensed in all 50 states and D.C. 12. The core activity is primary insurance, mostly written flow, loan by loan, on loans with LTV above 80%. The company also has NMIS, which provides outsourced loan review services, while Re One remains licensed without active exposures 1. At 31 December 2025 it had 2,193 customers with issued master policies and 225 employees 1.
Revenue depends on net premiums earned, which accrue over the life of the policies. Single premiums are largely recognised upfront and monthly premiums as they are billed, so revenue reflects the existing book and not only new volume 1. The company uses its proprietary Rate GPS platform to set risk-based premiums and uses quota share and excess-of-loss reinsurance to manage capital and PMIERs requirements 1. In the first half of 2026 indicators rose, and the July 2026 release reported record second-quarter net income 3.
The strategy aims to build the company's position in the private MI market, expand its customer base and grow a portfolio of high-quality residential loans through long-term relationships, disciplined risk selection and fair claims payment 1. The company also reports risk management indicators, including a quarterly loss ratio of 8.3 percent in the second quarter of 2026, compared with 13.3 percent in the first quarter 3.
Segments
Primary mortgage insurance
The main segment covers low down payment residential loans, mostly owner-occupied single-family homes, with coverage levels set within GSE limits. The persistency rate stayed historically high at 83.4 percent at the end of 2025, helped by a slowdown in refinancing 12.
Loan review services
Through NMIS, the company provides outsourced review of loan documentation and compliance for originators, with limited indemnification for certain errors. The segment is smaller than primary insurance and carries regulatory and litigation risks 1.
Market context
The reference market is US residential mortgage debt, roughly 14 trillion dollars at the end of 2025, in which the GSEs are the main buyers of insured loans 1. Private insurance covered 38 percent of high-LTV origination volume in 2025, with government programmes covering the rest 1. Demand depends on how often GSEs require MI and on alternatives such as piggy-back loans.
Since April 2026 the GSEs accept VantageScore 4.0 as an alternative to FICO from a limited set of lenders, which could gradually change the underwriting mix as more lenders adopt it 2. The company reported that its volume under this score stayed immaterial in the second quarter of 2026 2.
Trends
- Rates and mortgage activityheadwind
Persistent inflation and high interest rates could slow new lending and reduce new insurance written if housing demand weakens 12.
- GSE policymixed
Changes in GSE practices, including a possible reduction in the use of MI, could alter the size of the private market and the pace of growth 1.
- Underwriting quality and claimsmixed
Low claim ratios in 2026 point to a well-managed book, but claims could rise as the portfolio matures and if defaults increase 13.
Competitive position
The private mortgage insurance market has six approved participants, including the company, competing on coverage terms, pricing, underwriting speed and financial strength ratings 1. Government programmes run by FHA, USDA and VA remain a significant competitor, with different capital requirements and pricing 1.
Several competitors belong to larger groups with access to cheaper capital, and some have stronger financial strength ratings. They could cut prices or loosen underwriting criteria, which could erode market share 1.
- Essent GroupESNT
GSE-approved private mortgage insurer named in the 10-K as a direct competitor 1.
- MGIC Investment CorporationMTG
GSE-approved private mortgage insurer competing for the same originations 1.
- Radian GroupRDN
Private mortgage insurer within the same group of six approved participants 1.
- Enact HoldingsACT
Listed private mortgage insurer named as an approved participant in the US MI market 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report31 Jul 2026
- Current report30 Jul 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report15 May 2026Shareholder vote
- Quarterly report01 May 2026
- Current report30 Apr 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement26 Mar 2026
- Current report12 Feb 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Annual report12 Feb 2026
- Current report10 Feb 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report05 Nov 2025
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / NMI Holdings, Inc. · 12 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / NMI Holdings, Inc. · 31 Jul 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / NMI Holdings, Inc. · 30 Jul 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.