olivLaw · US equity research
Old Republic International Corporation ORI
Surety Insurance · SIC 6351 · Vertical: Surety Insurance (SIC 6351)
Old Republic International Corporation (ORI) is a Chicago-based insurance holding company organized into Specialty Insurance and Title Insurance segments, with a core focus on commercial lines. Revenues passed 9 billion dollars in fiscal 2025, and in 2026 the company shows premium growth with a combined ratio under control, while operating profit growth has slowed.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Old Republic International Corporation (ORI) stock was 39.96 USD (+3.04% on the day), with market capitalisation 9.6 bn USD, P/E 9.0 on diluted EPS of 4.44 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 9.16%, beta 0.32, 52-week range 36.66–46.62 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 2.6 bn USD (+5.2% YoY), net income of 243.2 m USD (−13.0% YoY), diluted EPS 0.99 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 58.5
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 37.41 – 40.25
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.90 · band width 7.3%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 39.49 / 40.37
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.06 / -0.19
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +5.7% | −1.1% | +6.8 pp | — |
| 3 months | −8.2% | −0.5% | −7.7 pp | — |
| 6 months | +1.9% | +4.4% | −2.5 pp | — |
| Year to date | −12.4% | +12.3% | −24.8 pp | — |
| 1 year | −0.3% | +13.5% | −13.8 pp | +2.8% |
| 3 years | +41.9% | +76.4% | −34.6 pp | +42.2% |
| 5 years | +54.9% | +63.7% | −8.8 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.0 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.6 bn |
| Pre-tax income | 130.7 m | 307.7 m | 260.1 m | 352.9 m | 263.1 m | 413.4 m | 410.2 m | 272.2 m |
| Income tax | 25.5 m | 61.6 m | 51.7 m | 72.8 m | 56.0 m | 83.8 m | 85.7 m | 27.8 m |
| Net income | 105.1 m | 245.0 m | 204.4 m | 279.5 m | 206.3 m | 330.0 m | 322.3 m | 243.2 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.42 | 0.98 | 0.81 | 1.11 | 0.82 | 1.32 | 1.31 | 0.99 |
| Operating cash flow | 361.7 m | 231.7 m | 133.8 m ≈ | 563.9 m ≈ | 234.9 m | 281.4 m | 199.7 m ≈ | 429.4 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 64.9 m | 567.9 m | 73.0 m ≈ | 70.9 m ≈ | 70.8 m | 693.8 m | 76.6 m ≈ | 75.4 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 174.4 m | 25.3 m | 0 ≈ | 43.3 m ≈ | 55.2 m | 159.8 m | 60.2 m ≈ | 112.7 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 33 percentile of its own 40-quarter history (min 3.9, median 10.7, max 127.1; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6.3 bn | 7.5 bn | 7.2 bn | 9.3 bn | 8.1 bn | 7.3 bn | 8.2 bn | 9.1 bn |
| Revenue YoY | −0.1% | +19.2% | −3.9% | +30.4% | −13.5% | −10.2% | +13.4% | +11.0% |
| Net income | 370.5 m | 1.1 bn | 558.6 m | 1.5 bn | 686.4 m | 598.6 m | 852.7 m | 935.4 m |
| Net income YoY | −33.9% | +185.1% | −47.1% | +174.7% | −55.3% | −12.8% | +42.4% | +9.7% |
| Diluted EPS | 1.24 | 3.51 | 1.87 | 5.05 | 2.26 | 2.10 | 3.24 | 3.72 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −35.4% | +183.1% | −46.7% | +170.1% | −55.2% | −7.1% | +54.3% | +14.8% |
| net % | 5.9% | 14.2% | 7.8% | 16.4% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 10.2% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 263.2 m USD
- Financial debt
- unavailable USD
- Net debt
- unavailable USD
- Equity
- 5.9 bn USD
- Total assets
- 29.9 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 16.2%
- ROA
- 3.2%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-tax income | 688.4 m | 1.9 bn | 857.4 m | 747.4 m | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 558.6 m | 1.5 bn | 686.4 m | 598.6 m | 852.7 m | 935.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 1.87 | 5.05 | 2.26 | 2.10 | 3.24 | 3.72 | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 1.84 | 2.38 | 1.92 | 0.98 | 3.06 | 3.66 | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 118.7 m | 158.1 m | 81.0 m | 202.8 m | 201.9 m | 263.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 22.8 bn | 25.0 bn | 25.2 bn | 26.5 bn | 27.8 bn | 29.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 16.6 bn | 18.1 bn | 19.0 bn | 20.1 bn | 22.2 bn | 23.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 6.2 bn † | 6.9 bn † | 6.2 bn † | 6.4 bn † | 5.6 bn | 5.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dividends paid | 250.1 m | 1.0 bn | 579.7 m | 275.5 m | 271.9 m | 782.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 0 | 281.2 m | 535.3 m | 942.2 m | 123.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Market and valuation
Insurance
32 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 69 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 9.6 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet100
- Growth74
- Quality100
- Returns65
- Valuation40
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 16.70 – 65.13 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- Residual income28.46 – 29.68 (Mid 29.06)
- Justified P/B48.43 – 65.13 (Mid 55.55)
- Dividend discount (DDM)48.10 – 64.68 (Mid 55.17)
- Peers: P/E40.13 – 42.80 (Mid 41.73)5 companies used · median multiple 9.4x · quartiles 9.0x – 9.6xAGO, ESNT, MTG, NMIH, RDN
- Peers: P/B16.70 – 28.71 (Mid 25.80)6 companies used · median multiple 1.1x · quartiles 0.7x – 1.2xAGO, ESNT, MTG, NMIH, OSG, RDN
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 69/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROE · Quality | 17.9% | 100 (vs peers) | 20% |
| Loss ratio · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 18.1% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 4.2% | 42 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| ROA · Balance sheet | 3.6% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| P/B · Valuation | 1.6x | 0 (vs peers) | 16% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 9.0x | 80 (vs peers) | 16% |
| Dividend yield · Returns | 9.2% | 80 (vs peers) | 11% |
| Payout ratio (EPS) · Returns | 82.4% | 39 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet100/100 · 1/1 factors with a value
- Growth74/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Returns65/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation40/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
OLD REPUBLIC INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION (ORI). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: YoY growth 11.0%; net margin 11.2%; ROE 17.9%.
The estimated value range is 40.13–42.80 USD per share (median of 5 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 41.73 USD, the price of 39.96 USD leaves a potential of 4.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 4.2% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 69/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: quality. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROE: 17.9%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 18.1%
- ROA: 3.6%
- P/E (TTM): 9.0x
- Dividend yield: 9.2%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- P/B: 1.6x
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Loss ratio.
Versus the vertical median
Surety Insurance (SIC 6351) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 7 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORIOld Republic International Corporation | 9.6 bn | 9.0 | 17.9% | 11.2% | +11.0% | −0% / +42% |
| ESNTEssent Group Ltd. | 6.2 bn | 9.7 | 12.0% | 51.5% | +1.5% | +10% / +43% |
| MTGMGIC Investment Corp | 5.8 bn | 9.0 | 13.8% | 58.1% | +0.5% | +3% / +66% |
| RDNRadian Group Inc | 4.8 bn | 9.4 | 11.5% | 32.6% | −0.8% | +3% / +42% |
| NMIHNMI Holdings, Inc. | 3.3 bn | 8.6 | 15.4% | 54.1% | +8.5% | +15% / +60% |
| AGOAssured Guaranty Ltd. | 3.2 bn | 9.6 | 6.3% | 37.3% | +27.3% | −20% / +7% |
| OSGOctave Specialty Group, Inc. | 235.2 m | — | -20.4% | -49.6% | +6.5% | −42% / −65% |
| MBIMbia Inc. | 230.6 m | — | — | -149.5% | +90.5% | −40% / −38% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for ORI from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 24.36 Total return -32% · Per year -32% | 43.07 Total return 18% · Per year 18% | 64.89 Total return 74% · Per year 74% |
| 3 years | 23.48 Total return -19% · Per year -7% | 46.73 Total return 48% · Per year 14% | 77.33 Total return 133% · Per year 32% |
| 5 years | 22.64 Total return -7% · Per year -2% | 50.71 Total return 81% · Per year 13% | 92.15 Total return 202% · Per year 25% |
- Exit P/E± 11.68
- Net margin± 8.18
- Annual revenue growth± 6.74
- Annual dilution± 0.69
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 22 Oct 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (30 Oct 2026).
In brief
Old Republic International Corporation (ORI) is a Chicago-based insurance holding company organized into Specialty Insurance and Title Insurance segments, with a core focus on commercial lines. Revenues passed 9 billion dollars in fiscal 2025, and in 2026 the company shows premium growth with a combined ratio under control, while operating profit growth has slowed.12
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has a long-term underwriting discipline, with combined ratios below 100 in recent years and broad diversification across lines and industries.
- The investment portfolio is conservative, dominated by bonds, which supports stable interest income.
- Distribution through independent agents and brokers covers most Specialty premiums, giving a solid network.
Weaknesses
- Commercial auto and workers' compensation lines can show high claim volatility, and reserves are estimates that can be revised.
- Operating expenses have risen with investments in technology and start-up companies, which weighed on quarterly results.
- Net operating income fell in the first nine months of 2026 compared with the prior year, showing sensitivity to costs and claim volatility.
Opportunities
- Price increases in commercial insurance and product expansion into non-casualty lines could support new premium volume.
- Acquisitions such as ECM Insurance Group may open access to new clients and bring one-time gains.
- IT modernization and data analytics could improve underwriting and reduce costs over the long run.
Threats
- If claim cost inflation or trucking severity rises faster than rates, underwriting margins could compress.
- Cyber attacks and phishing fraud, which attackers increasingly enhance with artificial intelligence, can cause financial losses and operational disruption.
- Legislative and judicial changes can alter insurer liability and affect long-tail claim reserves.
Risks
- Adequacy of loss reserveshigh
Reserves are estimates of future losses, and if they prove insufficient, financial results could be adversely affected.1
- Underwriting and pricing riskhigh
Premiums are set before all costs are known, and a misjudgment of risk can lead to inadequate pricing.1
- Investment and liquidity riskmedium
The portfolio is exposed to financial markets, and a forced sale before maturity could create unrealized losses.1
- Counterparty riskmedium
The company relies on banks, reinsurers and escrow depositories; if a partner fails, recoveries and funds could be affected.1
- Cyber and technology riskmedium
Information systems and service providers can be disrupted by attacks, with consequences for operations and reputation.1
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Premium growth combined with underwriting discipline and broad line diversification could support revenues and profit over several years if rates keep outpacing claim trends.
- The dividend and share repurchase program shows a commitment to returning capital to shareholders, which can support total return.
- Acquisitions and expansion into new segments can add growth beyond the core market.
What would break the thesis
- Operating profit fell in the first nine months of 2026, and technology and start-up costs could keep pressuring margins.
- If commercial auto severity stays high, reserves may require further strengthening, which would reduce earnings.
- Acquisition gains and asset sales can mask weakness in the core business, and such gains are not necessarily repeated.
What to watch
- Trend of the combined ratio and reserve development in Specialty InsuranceQ4 2026
- Effect of the ECM Insurance Group integration on Specialty segment results2027
- Premium trends in commercial auto and general liabilitynext 10-K
- Movements in IT spending and amortization of replaced systems2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 22 Oct 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (30 Oct 2026).
The business
Old Republic is an insurance holding company based in Chicago that conducts business through several operating companies, each using one or more insurance subsidiaries to issue policies. The company reports two segments: Specialty Insurance, focused on commercial coverages for businesses, state and local governments and institutions, and Title Insurance, for title insurance products.1 Consolidated total revenues were 9,136.3 million dollars in fiscal 2025, with pretax income of 1,184.0 million dollars.1
The business model rests on disciplined risk selection and a long-term view, with underwriting results judged over 10-year intervals rather than quarters. The company invests mainly in bonds and a portion of dividend-paying equities, with maturities scheduled to match obligations to policyholders.1
The company uses reinsurance and risk-sharing arrangements, including retrospective premium plans, to limit maximum losses and align pricing with actual customer experience. Loss reserving is central, because on long-tail lines estimates can be revised over time.1
Segments
Specialty Insurance
Specialty Insurance generated 5,990.9 million dollars of revenues in fiscal 2025 and is the larger segment. Commercial auto is the largest line, at about 42.1% of segment net premiums earned, followed by workers' compensation and property.1
Market context
ORI operates mainly in the United States, in commercial insurance and title insurance markets. Consolidated net premiums and fees earned reached 8,052.9 million dollars in fiscal 2025, up 10.1% from the prior year, which points to sustained demand and rising prices on commercial lines.1
The market environment remains shaped by claims cost inflation, severity trends in commercial auto and pressure on acquisition costs. Premium growth can support revenues, but if claim costs rise faster than prices, underwriting margins could tighten.12
Trends
- Pricing growth in commercial insurancetailwind
Rate increases in commercial auto and general liability supported premium growth in 2025 and 2026. If these increases hold, they could offset claim cost trends.12
- Auto claim severity trendsheadwind
Severity in commercial auto has remained a sensitive area, and the company added a current-year provision in the fourth quarter of 2025 for long-haul trucking. If trends intensify, underwriting margins could be affected.1
- Acquisitions and service expansionmixed
The acquisition of ECM Insurance Group, effective July 1, 2026, produced a bargain purchase gain in the third quarter, and the company is expanding auto warranty programs. These moves can add volume but also operational complexity.2
- Technology costs and start-up investmentsheadwind
Investments in IT modernization, data analytics and artificial intelligence, along with start-up operating companies, are raising operating costs. In the short run these weigh on the expense ratio, though they may support efficiency later.2
Competitive position
The commercial insurance and title insurance markets are competitive, with several large operators competing on price, service and broker access. Competitive pressure can limit the company's ability to raise rates, especially on high-volume lines.1
In title insurance, competition centers on underwriting reputation and distribution networks, while in commercial lines it turns on the ability to offer specialized solutions for industries such as transportation and construction. Differentiation through specialization is a central factor.1
- US commercial and specialty insurers
Direct competitors in commercial lines; the source texts do not name specific firms.
- Title insurance underwriters
Competitors in the Title Insurance segment, where agent networks and underwriting quality matter.
- Auto warranty and service contract providers
Competition in auto warranty programs, where the company has expanded volume through retail-priced programs.
- Specialty liability and D&O insurers
Competitors in the financial and professional liability lines within the Specialty segment.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report30 Oct 2026
- Current report22 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report31 Jul 2026
- Current report23 Jul 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report01 Jul 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report27 May 2026Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report18 May 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report01 May 2026
- Current report23 Apr 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement31 Mar 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Old Republic International Corporation · 26 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Old Republic International Corporation · 22 Oct 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.