olivLaw · US equity research
BKNG BKNG
Transportation Services · SIC 4700 · Vertical: Transportation Services (SIC 4700)
Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) is a global travel reservation platform that reported revenues of 26.9 billion USD in fiscal 2025. In the second quarter of 2026, revenue reached 7.4 billion USD and room nights grew 5%. The Middle East conflict remains a source of uncertainty for travel demand.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, BKNG (BKNG) stock was 170.97 USD (+9.83% on the day), with market capitalisation 127.2 bn USD, P/E 1.0 on diluted EPS of 165.57 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 5.64%, beta 0.94, 52-week range 147.94–219.68 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 8.9 bn USD (−1.3% YoY), diluted EPS 3.61 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 61.1
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 145.98 – 169.83
- above the upper band · %B 1.05 · band width 15.1%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 168.14 / 176.16
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -2.84 / -4.41
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +8.0% | −1.1% | +9.1 pp | — |
| 3 months | −17.4% | −0.5% | −17.0 pp | — |
| 6 months | +1.6% | +4.4% | −2.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | −20.2% | +12.3% | −32.5 pp | — |
| 1 year | −14.4% | +13.5% | −27.9 pp | −8.3% |
| 3 years | +49.5% | +76.4% | −26.9 pp | +10.7% |
| 5 years | +63.2% | +63.7% | −0.5 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5.5 bn | 4.8 bn | 6.8 bn | 9.0 bn | 6.3 bn | 5.5 bn | 7.4 bn | 8.9 bn |
| Operating income | 1.7 bn | 1.1 bn | 2.3 bn | 3.5 bn | 2.0 bn | 1.3 bn | 2.5 bn | 3.4 bn |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 157.0 m | 154.0 m | 158.0 m | 160.0 m | 151.0 m | 131.0 m | 129.0 m | 183.0 m |
| Interest expense | 507.0 m | 649.0 m | 418.0 m | 301.0 m | 249.0 m | 253.0 m | 300.0 m | 311.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | 1.6 bn | 396.0 m | 1.1 bn | 3.5 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.4 bn | 2.6 bn | 3.4 bn |
| Income tax | 496.0 m | 63.0 m | 209.0 m | 721.0 m | 435.0 m | 316.0 m | 610.0 m | 706.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | — | 0.40 | 1.10 | 3.38 | — | 1.36 | 2.53 | 3.61 |
| Operating cash flow | 721.0 m | 3.3 bn | 3.2 bn ≈ | 1.4 bn ≈ | 1.5 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.7 bn ≈ | 1.1 bn ≈ |
| Capex | 76.0 m | 121.0 m | 64.0 m ≈ | 64.0 m ≈ | 73.0 m | 107.0 m | 76.0 m ≈ | 68.0 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 289.0 m | 319.0 m | 312.0 m ≈ | 310.0 m ≈ | 307.0 m | 343.0 m | 321.0 m ≈ | 314.0 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 1.2 bn | 2.2 bn | 1.5 bn ≈ | 653.0 m ≈ | 2.1 bn | 3.8 bn | 4.0 bn ≈ | 2.1 bn ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 50 percentile of its own 20-quarter history (min 0.7, median 1.1, max 2.1; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 14.5 bn | 15.1 bn | 6.8 bn | 11.0 bn | 17.1 bn | 21.4 bn | 23.7 bn | 26.9 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +14.6% | +3.7% | −54.9% | +61.2% | +56.0% | +25.0% | +11.1% | +13.4% |
| Net income | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | 83.26 | 111.82 | 1.44 | 28.17 | 76.35 | 117.40 | 172.69 | 165.57 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +77.7% | +34.3% | −98.7% | +1,856.3% | +171.0% | +53.8% | +47.1% | −4.1% |
| net % | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Free cash flow | 4.9 bn | 4.5 bn | -201.0 m | 2.5 bn | 6.2 bn | 7.0 bn | 7.9 bn | 9.1 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 17.2 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 18.7 bn USD
- Net debt
- 1.5 bn USD
- Equity
- -5.6 bn USD
- Total assets
- 29.3 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 1.33x
- ROE
- unavailable
- ROA
- unavailable
- FCF margin
- 33.8%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6.8 bn | 11.0 bn | 17.1 bn | 21.4 bn | 23.7 bn | 26.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | -631.0 m | 2.5 bn | 5.1 bn | 5.8 bn | 7.6 bn | 8.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 458.0 m | 421.0 m | 451.0 m | 504.0 m | 591.0 m | 623.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | -173.0 m ≈ | 2.9 bn ≈ | 5.6 bn ≈ | 6.3 bn ≈ | 8.1 bn ≈ | 9.4 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 356.0 m | 334.0 m | 391.0 m | 897.0 m | 1.3 bn | 1.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 567.0 m | 1.5 bn | 3.9 bn | 5.5 bn | 7.3 bn | 6.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 508.0 m | 300.0 m | 865.0 m | 1.2 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 1.44 | 28.17 | 76.35 | 117.40 | 172.69 | 165.57 | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 41.2 m | 41.4 m | 40.1 m | 36.5 m | 34.1 m | 32.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | — | — | — | — | 8.75 | 9.60 | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 10.6 bn | 11.1 bn | 12.2 bn | 12.1 bn | 16.2 bn | 17.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 12.2 bn | 13.1 bn | 15.8 bn | 17.0 bn | 20.5 bn | 22.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 756.0 m | 822.0 m | 669.0 m | 784.0 m | 832.0 m | 807.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 1.9 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 1.8 bn | 2.1 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.4 bn | 918.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 21.9 bn | 23.6 bn | 25.4 bn | 24.3 bn | 27.7 bn | 29.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 735.0 m | 1.6 bn | 2.5 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.8 bn | 5.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 985.0 m | 2.0 bn | 500.0 m | 2.0 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 11.0 bn | 8.9 bn | 12.0 bn | 12.2 bn | 14.9 bn | 16.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 3.4 bn | 6.2 bn | 8.5 bn | 13.3 bn | 15.6 bn | 16.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 17.0 bn | 17.5 bn | 22.6 bn | 27.1 bn | 31.7 bn | 34.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 4.9 bn † | 6.2 bn † | 2.8 bn † | -2.7 bn † | -4.0 bn † | -5.6 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 85.0 m | 2.8 bn | 6.6 bn | 7.3 bn | 8.3 bn | 9.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 286.0 m | 304.0 m | 368.0 m | 345.0 m | 429.0 m | 322.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -201.0 m ≈ | 2.5 bn ≈ | 6.2 bn ≈ | 7.0 bn ≈ | 7.9 bn ≈ | 9.1 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | 2.6 bn | -998.0 m | -518.0 m | 1.5 bn | 129.0 m | -313.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 1.5 bn | -1.2 bn | -4.9 bn | -8.9 bn | -4.2 bn | -8.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | — | — | 0 | 0 | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 1.3 bn | 163.0 m | 6.6 bn | 10.4 bn | 6.5 bn | 6.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 81 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 127.2 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet57
- Growth100
- Valuation80
- Returns100
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 104.63 – 7,668.82 USD.
Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)236.85 – 382.05 (Mid 291.90)WACC 8.7% · starting FCFF 10.1 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 76%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -7.7%
- Peers: EV/EBITDA104.63 – 234.46 (Mid 129.55)5 companies used · median multiple 10.3x · quartiles 8.4x – 18.2xEXPE, GXO, LIND, VRRM, XPO
- Peers: P/E2,319.14 – 7,668.82 (Mid 3,260.93)7 companies used · median multiple 19.7x · quartiles 14.0x – 46.3xEXPE, GATX, GXO, HAFN, MMYT, VRRM, XPO
- Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate126.15 – 169.66 (Mid 144.71)a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 81/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 16.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 29.4% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 0.4x | 43 (vs peers) | 14% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 8.3x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.1x | 26 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 1.0x | 100 (vs peers) | 14% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 13.4x | 50 (vs peers) | 14% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 7.3% | 91 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 10.5% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 13.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet57/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth100/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Returns100/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation80/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 26.9 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 13.4%; net debt/EBITDA 0.4x.
The estimated value range is 236.85–382.05 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 291.90 USD, the price of 170.97 USD leaves a potential of 70.7% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 41.4% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 81/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: quality. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 16.3%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 29.4%
- Interest coverage: 8.3x
- P/E (TTM): 1.0x
- FCF yield: 7.3%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 10.5%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 13.9%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- Current ratio: 1.1x
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net margin, FCF conversion.
Versus the vertical median
Transportation Services (SIC 4700) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 14 companies
The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BKNGBooking Holdings Inc. | 127.2 bn | 1.0 | — | — | +13.4% | −14% / +50% |
| EXPEExpedia Group, Inc. | 36.2 bn | 19.7 | 199.1% | 13.0% | +7.6% | +24% / +132% |
| XPOXPO, Inc. | 21.9 bn | 44.3 | 26.5% | 5.7% | +1.1% | +32% / +118% |
| GATXGATX Corporation | 6.7 bn | 17.6 | 14.2% | 17.7% | +9.8% | +19% / +75% |
| GXOGXO Logistics, Inc. | 6.4 bn | 48.4 | 4.6% | 1.0% | +12.5% | +12% / +1% |
| HAFNHafnia Limited | 4.9 bn | 6.5 | 34.5% | 27.0% | +7.4% | +64% / unavailable |
| RXORxo, Inc. | 4.7 bn | — | -5.7% | -1.3% | +26.2% | +115% / +35% |
| LINDLindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc. | 2.2 bn | 8,279.1 | — | 0.7% | +19.6% | +179% / +327% |
| TOURTuniu Corp | 1.5 bn | 473.0 | 3.0% | 5.4% | +17.5% | −35% / −47% |
| SPCEVirgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. | 380.5 m | — | -75.1% | -23,867.4% | −78.1% | −35% / −94% |
| VRRMVerra Mobility Corporation | 377.0 m | 10.4 | 11.3% | 33.2% | +14.6% | −89% / −88% |
| PALProficient Auto Logistics, Inc. | 82.5 m | — | -13.0% | — | unavailable | −64% / unavailable |
| NTRPNextTrip, Inc. | 18.1 m | — | -296.7% | -319.8% | +641.0% | −68% / −68% |
| YTRAMagna Holdings Ltd. | — | — | -2.0% | -1.3% | +85.2% | −50% / −43% |
| MMYTMakeMyTrip Ltd | — | 61.1 | 8.2% | 9.7% | +25.0% | −29% / +20% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for BKNG from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 04 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (03 Nov 2026), 8-K (03 Nov 2026 · results).
In brief
Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) is a global travel reservation platform that reported revenues of 26.9 billion USD in fiscal 2025 1. In the second quarter of 2026, revenue reached 7.4 billion USD and room nights grew 5% 3. The Middle East conflict remains a source of uncertainty for travel demand 2.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has a globally recognized brand, a broad property offering and a large base of customers who book directly through its mobile apps 1.
- Financial strength supports investment in technology and marketing as well as share repurchase programs 3.
- Geographic and brand diversification reduces dependence on a single market or type of trip 1.
Weaknesses
- Operating margins are pressured by the shift to merchant bookings and by growth in lower-margin services 1.
- Dependence on travel service providers and search platforms can affect visibility and bookings 1.
- Growth in some regions has slowed, and markets with strong local competitors are difficult to enter 1.
Opportunities
- Expanding into flights, attractions and payment services could add revenue and strengthen the Connected Trip concept 1.
- If generative AI improves efficiency and customer experience, it could lower costs and increase loyalty 1.
- Growth in domestic and regional travel and in alternative accommodations could support booking volume 2.
Threats
- Geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty can reduce demand and increase currency volatility 1.
- Large technology companies and AI platforms could divert customers away from dedicated travel platforms 1.
- Regulation of large digital platforms in Europe and digital services taxes could raise compliance costs 1.
Risks
- Competition from AI assistantshigh
AI assistants could reduce direct traffic to the company's platform and affect reservations 1.
- Dependence on search platformshigh
Changes in algorithms or access terms at search providers could raise customer acquisition costs 1.
- Geopolitical uncertaintymedium
Regional conflicts and transport disruptions could reduce demand for international travel in the near term 2.
- Regulation and taxesmedium
European requirements for large platforms and digital services taxes could raise costs and limit payment options 1.
- Margin pressurelow
Lower-margin services and payment costs could reduce profitability if revenue growth does not keep pace 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If demand stays healthy in domestic and regional travel, the company could keep growing in volume and revenue 2.
- The Transformation Program and cost reductions could create capacity for investment in AI and new services 3.
- Expansion of merchant bookings and payment services could raise revenue per transaction 2.
What to watch
- Guidance for the third quarter and full year 2026Q3 2026
- Development of demand in the Middle East and indirect effects on flights2026
- Realization of Transformation Program savings2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 04 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (03 Nov 2026), 8-K (03 Nov 2026 · results).
The business
The business model splits revenue into merchant revenue, where the company facilitates the traveler's payment, agency revenue, which consists almost entirely of commissions on Booking.com accommodations, and advertising and other revenue 1. The share of merchant bookings in total gross bookings rose to 73% in the second quarter of 2026 2.
The long-term strategy centers on the Connected Trip, a personalized planning, booking, payment and in-trip experience supported by generative AI tools and loyalty programs 1. The Transformation Program is expected to deliver annual run-rate savings of about 650 million USD, which the company expects to realize by the end of 2027 3.
Segments
Market context
The company states that global travel bookings will generally continue to grow as they shift from offline to online channels 1. Room nights grew 8% in fiscal 2025, supported mainly by demand in Europe and Asia 2.
The market is intensely competitive with low barriers to entry, and AI tools may change how customers search for and book travel 1. If demand in regions such as the Middle East stays weak, growth could slow further 2.
Trends
- Middle East conflictheadwind
The conflict affected travel demand in the second quarter of 2026 through higher flight prices and reduced capacity on international routes, while domestic and regional travel stayed healthy 2. The company's guidance assumes these indirect effects persist into the third quarter 3.
- Shift to merchant bookingsmixed
A rising share of merchant bookings increases payment-facilitation revenue but adds personnel, payment processing and chargeback costs that can pressure operating margins 1.
- Efficiency from the Transformation Programtailwind
The program has generated savings the company can reinvest in strategic priorities, and the expected annual run-rate savings were raised to about 650 million USD 3.
- Generative AImixed
The company is integrating AI features into planning and customer service, but large competitors can use similar technology to enter the market more easily 1.
Competitive position
Competition comes from online travel companies, large technology firms, traditional agencies, banks and card companies, and some rivals have greater resources and data than the company 1. Price pressure and AI-enabled entry could reduce market share 1.
Search and AI platforms can redirect traffic away from the company's sites, which could raise customer acquisition costs 1. Dependence on these channels remains a structural risk 1.
- Expedia GroupEXPE
Owns Vrbo, which competes directly with the company's alternative accommodations segment 1.
- AirbnbABNB
Alternative accommodation platform competing directly with the company's home and apartment listings 1.
- GoogleGOOGL
Integrates travel products into its search engine and Google Maps, and is also a major traffic channel for the company 1.
- Meta-search and traditional agencies
Price-comparison platforms and traditional agencies compete on reservation pricing and customer relationships 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
- Stocks making the biggest moves midday: CoreWeave, Micron, Booking Holdings, McDonald's, CVS Health & moreCNBC — Top News · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Booking Holdings takes $900 million hit to quarterly revenue linked to FTC actionCNA (Channel NewsAsia) · 03 Nov 2026 · EN
- Booking Holdings takes $1 billion hit to third-quarter results linked to FTC actionCNA (Channel NewsAsia) · 03 Nov 2026 · EN
- 22 , 079 Booking Holdings Inc . $BKNG Shares Sold by Robeco Institutional Asset Management B . V .Surge — GDELT DOC · 21 Oct 2026 · RO
- Booking Holdings Plans to Fund New AI Startup Vayo With $100 MillionSkift · 14 Oct 2026 · EN
- Kayak Co-Founders Launch Lola — Booking Holdings’ New AI Assistant: ExclusiveSkift · 29 Sept 2026 · EN
- Booking Holdings: Building a Long-Term Competitive AdvantageSkift · 23 Sept 2026 · EN
- Booking Holdings (BKNG) is Positioned to Benefit From Long-Term Travel GrowthYahoo Finance — News · 23 Sept 2026 · EN
- Booking Holdings Stock Falls as Morgan Stanley Dismisses AI ThreatYahoo Finance — News · 17 Sept 2026 · EN
- Here Are Wednesday’s Top Wall Street Analyst Research Calls: Airbnb, Booking Holdings, Credicorp, Dutch Bros, Expedia, Hartford Financial Services, Group, Meritage Homes, Patchex, Yum! Brands, and MoreYahoo Finance — News · 16 Sept 2026 · EN
- Here's How Many Shares of Booking Holdings (BKNG) Stock You'd Need for $1,000 in Yearly DividendsYahoo Finance — News · 03 Sept 2026 · EN
- Booking Holdings vs. Expedia in B2B: Bombshell Estimate Says Booking Leads in Room NightsSkift · 28 Aug 2026 · EN
- Axon Enterprise vs. Booking Holdings: Evaluating Absolute Scale and Sequential Volatility in Quarterly Revenue TrendsYahoo Finance — News · 26 Aug 2026 · EN
- Booking Holdings Stock: Is Wall Street Bullish or Bearish?Yahoo Finance — News · 26 Aug 2026 · EN
- Booking Holdings Keeps Full-Year Outlook on Resilient TravelBloomberg Markets · 04 Aug 2026 · EN
SEC filings
- Quarterly report03 Nov 2026
- Current report03 Nov 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report04 Aug 2026
- Current report04 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report02 Jun 2026Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report11 May 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report07 May 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report28 Apr 2026
- Current report28 Apr 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement21 Apr 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / BKNG · 18 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / BKNG · 04 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / BKNG · 04 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.