olivlawolivlaw

olivLaw · US equity research

Verra Mobility Corp VRRM

Transportation Services · SIC 4700 · Vertical: Transportation Services (SIC 4700)

2.48USD−6.77% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Verra Mobility provides smart mobility solutions covering toll and violations management, title and registration, automated photo enforcement and parking management, mainly in the United States. Revenue reached 979.1 million USD in fiscal 2025, while the second quarter of 2026 brought a net loss, a revised fiscal 2026 outlook and a change of chief executive.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Verra Mobility Corp (VRRM) stock was 2.48 USD (−6.77% on the day), with market capitalisation 377.0 m USD, P/E 10.4 on diluted EPS of 0.24 USD over the last 12 months, beta 0.55, 52-week range 2.48–23.19 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 28.3 m USD (−20.7% YoY), net income of 40.4 m USD (−13.8% YoY), diluted EPS 0.27 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
377.0 m USD
shares as of 27 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
10.4
Diluted EPS TTM 0.24 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
9.61%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
0.55
Volatility (1y) 134%
52-week range
2.4823.19

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
31.0
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
2.56 – 3.33
below the lower band · %B -0.10 · band width 26.1%
SMA 50 / 200
3.32 / 9.22
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.15 / -0.13
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−13.6%−2.0%−11.6 pp—
3 months−55.8%−2.2%−53.6 pp—
6 months−82.7%+4.3%−86.9 pp—
Year to date−88.9%+10.6%−99.5 pp—
1 year−89.2%+10.5%−99.7 pp−4.5%
3 years−87.6%+73.7%−161.2 pp+22.3%
5 years−84.6%+61.7%−146.3 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−89.3%
14 Nov 2025 → 04 Nov 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−92.0%
23 Jul 2024 → 04 Nov 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
−31.2%
S&P 500 +10.1%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
28.3 m USD
−20.7% YoY
Net income
40.4 m USD
−13.8% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.27
−6.9% YoY
net / operating
142.6% / 231.5%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue32.4 m31.4 m33.2 m35.7 m32.7 m27.3 m25.8 m28.3 m
SG&A52.6 m51.5 m48.5 m47.8 m67.6 m40.9 m44.0 m43.4 m
Operating income-43.4 m57.4 m63.2 m74.8 m43.0 m51.8 m-32.8 m65.6 m
Depreciation & amortisation27.5 m27.5 m29.2 m ≈28.5 m ≈28.9 m29.2 m28.5 m ≈26.2 m ≈
Interest expense16.7 m16.6 m16.6 m16.4 m15.0 m15.4 m15.5 m15.0 m
Pre-tax income-55.9 m44.8 m52.6 m64.7 m32.9 m40.5 m-42.2 m55.3 m
Income tax10.7 m12.5 m14.0 m17.8 m14.0 m13.7 m6.0 m14.9 m
Net income-66.7 m32.3 m38.6 m46.8 m18.9 m26.7 m-48.2 m40.4 m
Diluted EPS-0.40 ≈0.200.240.290.12 ≈0.17-0.320.27
Operating cash flow40.5 m63.0 m75.1 m ≈77.7 m ≈40.0 m40.8 m56.4 m ≈114.5 m ≈
Capex18.8 m21.2 m34.9 m ≈28.8 m ≈34.2 m31.2 m23.8 m ≈25.1 m ≈
Share repurchases148.5 m00 ≈0 ≈133.4 m50.2 m1.3 m ≈0 ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 25-quarter history (min 13.0, median 47.9, max 753.5; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019⚠ 202020212022202320242025
Revenue370.1 m448.7 m13.3 m40.0 m94.3 m103.6 m116.0 m133.0 m
Revenue YoYunavailable+21.2%—+200.5%+135.9%+9.8%+12.0%+14.6%
Net income-51.5 m17.1 m-4.6 m41.4 m92.5 m57.0 m31.4 m136.6 m
Net income YoY−3,714.2%unavailable—unavailable+123.1%−38.3%−44.8%+334.5%
Diluted EPS-0.590.11-0.030.250.500.360.190.85
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailable—unavailable+100.0%−28.0%−47.2%+347.4%
net %-13.9%3.8%-34.4%103.7%98.0%55.0%27.1%102.8%
Free cash flow22.7 m104.1 m22.6 m168.2 m170.2 m149.1 m152.8 m136.7 m

The series breaks before 2020: earlier years come from the original reports of the issuer of that time, later years from a subsequent filing that restated the perimeter (a separation, discontinued operations). The year-on-year change across the break is not shown.

Reported results vs expectations

Loading…

Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
65.3 m USD
Financial debt
1.0 bn USD
Net debt
962.8 m USD
Equity
293.0 m USD
Total assets
1.6 bn USD
Debt / equity
3.51x
Current ratio
2.09x
ROE
49.0%
ROA
8.4%
FCF margin
102.8%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
103.6 m
2024
116.0 m
2025
133.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

SG&A
2023
198.6 m
2024
195.1 m
2025
215.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
188.8 m
2024
136.0 m
2025
238.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
113.1 m
2024
108.5 m
2025
114.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
301.9 m ≈
2024
244.5 m ≈
2025
352.5 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
86.7 m
2024
73.9 m
2025
64.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
87.0 m
2024
79.1 m
2025
195.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
30.0 m
2024
47.7 m
2025
58.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
57.0 m
2024
31.4 m
2025
136.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
0.36
2024
0.19
2025
0.85

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
160.0 m
2024
167.7 m
2025
161.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
136.3 m
2024
77.6 m
2025
65.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
197.8 m
2024
206.5 m
2025
234.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
18.0 m
2024
15.5 m
2025
20.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
439.5 m
2024
394.0 m
2025
440.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
123.2 m
2024
141.6 m
2025
208.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
835.8 m
2024
735.6 m
2025
741.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
301.0 m
2024
232.3 m
2025
168.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
1.8 bn
2024
1.6 bn
2025
1.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
78.7 m
2024
91.2 m
2025
101.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
9.0 m
2024
0
2025
6.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
1.0 bn
2024
1.0 bn
2025
1.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
214.8 m
2024
199.7 m
2025
210.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
1.4 bn
2024
1.3 bn
2025
1.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
421.5 m †
2024
265.1 m †
2025
293.0 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
206.1 m
2024
223.6 m
2025
255.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
57.0 m
2024
70.9 m
2025
119.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
149.1 m ≈
2024
152.8 m ≈
2025
136.7 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-58.3 m
2024
-69.7 m
2025
-118.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-117.8 m
2024
-211.4 m
2025
-151.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
100.0 m
2024
200.0 m
2025
133.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
14.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
12.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
58.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
75.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
334.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
13.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
347.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
19.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
-10.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
210.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBIT margin
111.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
33.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
120.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
11.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
2.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
8.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROCE
9.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
895.6 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
3.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Debt / equity
3.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Interest coverage
2.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
2.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
2.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash ratio
0.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
251.7 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
114.4 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
137.4 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
363.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
104.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
673 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
377.0 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
1.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
10.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
10.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
9.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
1.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
3.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
5.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBIT
10.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/Sales
11.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/FCF
2.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
FCF yield
36.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
49.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 76 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

2.48 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 377.0 m USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
377.0 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
10.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
1.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
5.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROE
11.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
33.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
14.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

31/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 27 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 30 Oct 2026
verified 1371derived 97

Score by group

  • Balance sheet23
  • Valuation92
  • Quality80
  • Growth100
  • Returns100

Estimated value range

Low
8.73
USD per share
Mid
13.46
USD per share
High
23.33
USD per share
Price: 2.48 USD
The price is below the range
Potential to the central value: 442.7% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 81.6% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: low · 3 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 2.88 – 65.64 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)25.13 – 65.64 (Mid 37.14)
    WACC 6.2% · starting FCFF 188.5 m USD · terminal value share of EV 84%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA8.73 – 23.33 (Mid 13.46)
    5 companies used · median multiple 12.2x · quartiles 9.2x – 18.5x
    BKNG, EXPE, GXO, LIND, XPO
  • Peers: P/E2.88 – 11.38 (Mid 4.24)
    7 companies used · median multiple 17.8x · quartiles 12.1x – 47.8x
    BKNG, EXPE, GATX, GXO, HAFN, MMYT, XPO
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Transportation Services (SIC 4700)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 76/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality8.9%56 (vs peers)11%
Net margin · Quality33.2%100 (vs peers)7%
FCF conversion · Quality363.1%100 (on a fixed band)7%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth12.1%100 (on a fixed band)9%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth19.3%100 (on a fixed band)9%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet3.7x0 (vs peers)11%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet2.1x9 (on a fixed band)7%
Current ratio · Balance sheet2.1x100 (on a fixed band)4%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation10.4x78 (vs peers)11%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation5.3x100 (vs peers)11%
FCF yield · Valuation36.4%100 (on a fixed band)9%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns49.1%100 (on a fixed band)7%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet23/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth100/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality80/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation92/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

VERRA MOBILITY CORPORATION (VRRM). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 133.0 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 14.6%; net margin 33.2%; ROE 11.3%; net debt/EBITDA 3.7x.

The estimated value range is 8.73–23.33 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 13.46 USD, the price of 2.48 USD leaves a potential of 442.7% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 81.6% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 76/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Net margin: 33.2%
  • FCF conversion: 363.1%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 12.1%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: 19.3%
  • Current ratio: 2.1x
  • P/E (TTM): 10.4x
  • EV/EBITDA: 5.3x
  • FCF yield: 36.4%
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 49.1%
  • The price is below the estimated value range

What contradicts it

  • Net debt / EBITDA: 3.7x
  • Interest coverage: 2.1x
  • The valuation methods diverge

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Transportation Services (SIC 4700) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 14 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
10.4x
vertical median 45.0x
below median (−76.9%)
EV/EBITDA
5.3x
vertical median 15.3x
below median (−65.5%)
P/S
3.3x
vertical median 2.6x
above median (+29.0%)
P/B
1.4x
vertical median 2.7x
below median (−48.0%)
ROE
11.3%
vertical median 3.7%
above median (+204.7%)
Net margin
33.2%
vertical median 3.2%
above median (+944.7%)
EBIT margin
111.8%
vertical median 5.0%
above median (+2,148.8%)
Revenue YoY
14.6%
vertical median 13.4%
above median (+9.1%)
Net debt/EBITDA
3.7x
vertical median 0.2x
above median (+1,985.5%)
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 1.4%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
BKNGBooking Holdings Inc.115.8 bn0.9——+13.4%−21% / +25%
EXPEExpedia Group, Inc.32.7 bn17.8199.1%13.0%+7.6%+12% / +110%
XPOXPO, Inc.22.3 bn45.026.5%5.7%+1.1%+35% / +122%
GATXGATX Corporation6.7 bn17.614.2%17.7%+9.8%+19% / +75%
GXOGXO Logistics, Inc.6.5 bn50.54.4%1.0%+12.5%+12% / +1%
HAFNHafnia Limited4.9 bn6.534.5%27.0%+7.4%+64% / unavailable
RXORxo, Inc.4.7 bn—-5.7%-1.3%+26.2%+115% / +35%
LINDLindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc.2.2 bn8,279.1—0.7%+19.6%+179% / +327%
TOURTuniu Corp1.5 bn473.03.0%5.4%+17.5%−35% / −47%
SPCEVirgin Galactic Holdings, Inc.380.5 m—-75.1%-23,867.4%−78.1%−35% / −94%
VRRMVerra Mobility Corporation377.0 m10.411.3%33.2%+14.6%−89% / −88%
PALProficient Auto Logistics, Inc.82.5 m—-13.0%—unavailable−64% / unavailable
NTRPNextTrip, Inc.18.1 m—-296.7%-319.8%+641.0%−68% / −68%
YTRAMagna Holdings Ltd.——-2.0%-1.3%+85.2%−50% / −43%
MMYTMakeMyTrip Ltd—61.18.2%9.7%+25.0%−29% / +20%

1- and 3-year price returns: for VRRM from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
1.65
Total return -34% · Per year -34%
2.91
Total return 17% · Per year 17%
4.36
Total return 76% · Per year 76%
3 years
1.86
Total return -25% · Per year -9%
3.65
Total return 47% · Per year 14%
5.99
Total return 141% · Per year 34%
5 years
2.09
Total return -16% · Per year -3%
4.59
Total return 85% · Per year 13%
8.21
Total return 231% · Per year 27%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 0.91
  • Net margin± 0.64
  • Annual revenue growth± 0.49
  • Annual dilution± 0.05

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (30 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (30 Oct 2026).

In brief

Verra Mobility provides smart mobility solutions covering toll and violations management, title and registration, automated photo enforcement and parking management, mainly in the United States. Revenue reached 979.1 million USD in fiscal 2025, while the second quarter of 2026 brought a net loss, a revised fiscal 2026 outlook and a change of chief executive.

SWOT

Strengths

  • Recurring revenue from long-term contracts and a solid position in fleet tolling.
  • Long-standing relationships with major rental car companies and government agencies in several states.
  • Ability to generate meaningful operating cash flow even in weaker quarters.

Weaknesses

  • High revenue concentration in a few large customers, including a municipal program in New York.
  • Substantial indebtedness that limits financial flexibility during a slowdown.
  • Goodwill and intangible impairments in the parking segment point to performance problems.

Opportunities

  • Expansion of camera safety programs in cities and states that still permit them.
  • Growth in software features for parking projects and subscription-based services.
  • New government contracts if demand for road safety programs grows.

Threats

  • Legislative bans on automated enforcement, such as those in Canadian provinces.
  • Pressure from fleet customers demanding better terms or building their own solutions.
  • Autonomous vehicles could reduce the traffic violations the company earns revenue from.

Risks

  • Dependence on a few large customershigh

    A small number of customers account for a significant share of revenue, and losing or reducing demand from them could materially affect results.

  • New York City contracthigh

    The new contract has materially different terms, including service levels and liquidated damages, and failing to perform could have serious effects.

  • Regulation of camera enforcementhigh

    Restrictions at local, state or national level could shut existing programs and limit growth.

  • Indebtednessmedium

    Debt levels are high, and rising interest costs or slower demand could reduce the capacity to repay.

  • Cybersecurity and personal datamedium

    Data on drivers and vehicle owners is exposed to security risks and to privacy laws in several countries.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If recurring tolling and government program revenue keeps growing, the company could sustain high profitability and reduce debt.
  • The extension of contracts with major rental car companies shows that key customer relationships remain intact, even on less favorable terms.
  • Selection for a large speed safety program in Los Angeles could open new revenue sources in the government segment.

What would break the thesis

  • The net loss in the second quarter of 2026 and the significant impairments suggest some assets have lost value, and this could continue.
  • Renewed contracts with large customers on weaker terms could compress margins over the long term.
  • If legislation tightens in several states, growth in the government segment could slow or stall.

What to watch

  • Appointment of a permanent chief executive and organizational changes2026
  • Development of the contract with the third large Commercial Services customerNext 12 months
  • Revised fiscal 2026 guidance and results of the next quarterQ3 2026
  • Effect of impairment charges on Parking Solutions marginsNext 10-K

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (30 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (30 Oct 2026).

The business

The company supplies integrated, data-driven solutions to commercial fleets such as rental car companies, to local governments and to parking operators, operating in the United States, Australia, Europe and Canada. Its model relies on long-term contracts and recurring service revenue, with a smaller share of equipment sales. It runs three segments, each with its own dynamics.

Segments

Commercial Services

This segment manages tolls and violations for rental car companies and large fleets, along with title and registration services. It generated the largest share of revenue in 2025, about 435.8 million USD. The segment is sensitive to travel volumes and to customer concentration.

Government Solutions

This segment provides photo enforcement systems for speed, red-light and school bus violations to states, municipalities and agencies. It generated about 460.7 million USD in 2025, the largest segment, but depends on legislation that permits this type of enforcement.

Parking Solutions

This segment offers software, transaction processing and hardware for parking at universities, municipalities and hospitals. It is the smallest segment and recorded goodwill and intangible impairments in the first half of 2026, pointing to pressure on this business line.

Market context

The company operates in automated road safety, tolling, commercial fleet management and parking. These markets are fragmented and changing quickly, and autonomous vehicles could reduce the number of traffic violations. Demand depends on travel volumes, the expansion of toll roads and public policy on photo enforcement.

The regulatory environment remains decisive: bans or restrictions on automated enforcement, as in the Canadian province of Ontario, can take programs out of operation. Government contracts bring steady revenue, but with longer payment cycles and termination-for-convenience clauses.

Trends

  • Expansion of electronic toll roadstailwind

    The number of electronically tolled roads in the United States and Europe is growing, which supports volume in tolling. Growth in this infrastructure can support the Commercial Services segment.

  • Legislative limits on camerasheadwind

    Some states and provinces restrict or ban automated enforcement by camera, which could reduce Government Solutions revenue.

  • Consolidation of fleet customersheadwind

    Rental car companies are renegotiating contracts on terms less favorable to the company, including fleet volume modulation rights.

  • Artificial intelligence in operationsmixed

    The company applies AI more widely in products and processes, which could lower costs but brings legal and regulatory risks.

Competitive position

No single competitor covers all three segments, and competition varies by market. Fleet customers may build internal solutions, and new technology providers may enter with different financial models.

In automated camera enforcement the company faces other vendors of speed and red-light cameras, while in parking it faces a varied group of software and hardware competitors with no dominant leader identified in the sources.

  • In-house systems of fleet customers

    Rental car companies and large fleets could build their own solutions, which could reduce demand for outside services.

  • Other road enforcement camera vendors

    Competes mainly in speed, red-light and school bus camera programs.

  • Toll and violations technology providers

    New entrants with different financial models could compete for tolling and violations contracts.

  • Parking software and hardware providers

    A varied group of competitors covers parking systems, payments and permit management.

News & filings

In the press

No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

SEC filings

  • Current report30 Oct 2026
    Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report30 Oct 2026
  • Current report30 Oct 2026
    Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report15 Oct 2026
    Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report02 Oct 2026
    Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report05 Aug 2026
  • Current report05 Aug 2026
    Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report29 Jul 2026
    Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Shareholder vote

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Verra Mobility Corp · 24 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Verra Mobility Corp · 05 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Verra Mobility Corp · 05 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.