olivLaw · US equity research
GXO Logistics, Inc. GXO
Transportation Services · SIC 4700 · Vertical: Transportation Services (SIC 4700)
GXO Logistics is the world's largest pure-play contract logistics provider, running warehousing, distribution, e-commerce and returns for large retail, technology and industrial clients. The company is in a phase of organic growth, with new contract wins and a slightly adjusted 2026 outlook, while net debt after the Wincanton acquisition remains a point to watch against 2025 revenue of 13.2 bn USD.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, GXO Logistics, Inc. (GXO) stock was 56.96 USD (+9.48% on the day), with market capitalisation 6.4 bn USD, P/E 48.4 on diluted EPS of 1.18 USD over the last 12 months, beta 1.28, 52-week range 44.17–65.59 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 3.6 bn USD (+5.7% YoY), net income of 64.0 m USD (+8.5% YoY), diluted EPS 0.56 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 83.6
- overbought (≥ 70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 43.69 – 54.02
- above the upper band · %B 1.28 · band width 21.1%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 47.27 / 51.74
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 1.76 / 1.03
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +23.9% | −1.1% | +25.0 pp | — |
| 3 months | +19.6% | −0.5% | +20.1 pp | — |
| 6 months | +14.1% | +4.4% | +9.7 pp | — |
| Year to date | +8.2% | +12.3% | −4.1 pp | — |
| 1 year | +2.9% | +13.5% | −10.7 pp | −21.0% |
| 3 years | +6.1% | +76.4% | −70.3 pp | +27.8% |
| 5 years | −39.1% | +63.7% | −102.7 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.3 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.6 bn |
| SG&A | 277.0 m | 261.0 m | 272.0 m | 285.0 m | 288.0 m | 296.0 m | 295.0 m | 285.0 m |
| Operating income | 101.0 m | -56.0 m | 89.0 m | 118.0 m | 94.0 m | 39.0 m | 77.0 m | 96.0 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 113.0 m | 109.0 m | 110.0 m | 118.0 m | 120.0 m | 115.0 m | 117.0 m | 115.0 m |
| Interest expense | 34.0 m | 32.0 m | 36.0 m | 35.0 m | 30.0 m | 32.0 m | 35.0 m | 36.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | 97.0 m | -93.0 m | 43.0 m | 88.0 m | 66.0 m | 17.0 m | 48.0 m | 72.0 m |
| Income tax | -3.0 m | 2.0 m | 15.0 m | 28.0 m | 23.0 m | 12.0 m | 21.0 m | 7.0 m |
| Net income | 100.0 m | -96.0 m | 26.0 m | 59.0 m | 43.0 m | 4.0 m | 25.0 m | 64.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.83 ≈ | -0.81 | 0.23 | 0.51 | 0.37 ≈ | 0.03 | 0.22 | 0.56 |
| Operating cash flow | 186.0 m | 29.0 m | 3.0 m ≈ | 232.0 m ≈ | 170.0 m | 31.0 m | 76.0 m ≈ | 156.0 m ≈ |
| Capex | 104.0 m | 78.0 m | 47.0 m ≈ | 144.0 m ≈ | 55.0 m | 65.0 m | 65.0 m ≈ | 74.0 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 106.0 m | 94.0 m ≈ | 0 ≈ | 0 | 0 | 18.0 m ≈ | 84.0 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 67 percentile of its own 21-quarter history (min 19.8, median 43.2, max 176.9; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6.1 bn | 6.2 bn | 7.9 bn | 9.0 bn | 9.8 bn | 11.7 bn | 13.2 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +1.7% | +28.2% | +13.3% | +8.7% | +19.7% | +12.5% |
| Net income | 60.0 m | -31.0 m | 153.0 m | 197.0 m | 229.0 m | 134.0 m | 32.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −151.7% | unavailable | +28.8% | +16.2% | −41.5% | −76.1% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.52 | -0.27 | 1.32 | 1.67 | 1.92 | 1.12 | 0.28 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −151.9% | unavailable | +26.5% | +15.0% | −41.7% | −75.0% |
| net % | 1.0% | -0.5% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Free cash flow | -77.0 m | 111.0 m | 205.0 m | 200.0 m | 284.0 m | 190.0 m | 110.0 m |
Reported results vs expectations
Loading…
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 854.0 m USD
- Financial debt
- 446.0 m USD
- Net debt
- -408.0 m USD
- Equity
- 3.0 bn USD
- Total assets
- 12.3 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.15x
- Current ratio
- 0.85x
- ROE
- 1.1%
- ROA
- 0.3%
- FCF margin
- 0.8%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6.2 bn | 7.9 bn | 9.0 bn | 9.8 bn | 11.7 bn | 13.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| SG&A | 611.0 m | 714.0 m | 886.0 m | 998.0 m | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 16.0 m | 151.0 m | 242.0 m | 318.0 m | 218.0 m | 245.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 323.0 m | 335.0 m | 329.0 m | 361.0 m | 415.0 m | 457.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 339.0 m ≈ | 486.0 m ≈ | 571.0 m ≈ | 679.0 m ≈ | 633.0 m ≈ | 702.0 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 24.0 m | 21.0 m | 29.0 m | 53.0 m | 103.0 m | 133.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -6.0 m | 153.0 m | 264.0 m | 266.0 m | 146.0 m | 104.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 16.0 m | -8.0 m | 64.0 m | 33.0 m | 8.0 m | 68.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | -31.0 m | 153.0 m | 197.0 m | 229.0 m | 134.0 m | 32.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.27 | 1.32 | 1.67 | 1.92 | 1.12 | 0.28 | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 114.6 m | 115.6 m | 117.6 m | 119.5 m | 119.8 m | 116.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 328.0 m | 333.0 m | 495.0 m | 468.0 m | 413.0 m | 854.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 1.2 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 1.8 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.6 bn | 3.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 2.1 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 299.0 m | 257.0 m | 570.0 m | 567.0 m | 986.0 m | 909.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 6.5 bn | 7.3 bn | 9.2 bn | 9.5 bn | 11.3 bn | 12.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 415.0 m | 624.0 m | 717.0 m | 709.0 m | 776.0 m | 758.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 58.0 m | 34.0 m | 67.0 m | 27.0 m | 110.0 m | 446.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | — | — | 1.7 bn | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 10 May 2023verified |
| Current liabilities | 1.7 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.6 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 2.9 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 333.0 m | 455.0 m | 542.0 m | 558.0 m | 549.0 m | 434.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 222.0 m | 250.0 m | 342.0 m | 274.0 m | 359.0 m | 324.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 111.0 m ≈ | 205.0 m ≈ | 200.0 m ≈ | 284.0 m ≈ | 190.0 m ≈ | 110.0 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -280.0 m | -207.0 m | -1.1 bn | -410.0 m | -1.2 bn | -196.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 67.0 m | -241.0 m | 787.0 m | -186.0 m | 636.0 m | 111.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | — | — | — | 0 | 0 | 200.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 48 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 6.4 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation51
- Returns23
- Quality59
- Balance sheet39
- Growth50
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 9.98 – 124.25 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)38.68 – 60.23 (Mid 47.00)WACC 9.0% · starting FCFF 265.7 m USD · terminal value share of EV 75%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 22.8%
- Peers: EV/EBITDA69.88 – 124.25 (Mid 91.34)5 companies used · median multiple 13.4x · quartiles 10.3x – 18.2xBKNG, EXPE, LIND, VRRM, XPO
- Peers: P/E9.98 – 37.66 (Mid 20.73)7 companies used · median multiple 17.6x · quartiles 8.5x – 32.0xBKNG, EXPE, GATX, HAFN, MMYT, VRRM, XPO
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 48/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 6.8% | 44 (vs peers) | 11% |
| Net margin · Quality | 1.0% | 42 (vs peers) | 7% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 127.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 13.6% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -44.9% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 0.0x | 71 (vs peers) | 11% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 2.3x | 12 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.8x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 48.4x | 33 (vs peers) | 11% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 8.4x | 83 (vs peers) | 11% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 2.7% | 34 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 1.6% | 23 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet39/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth50/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality59/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial23/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation51/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
GXO Logistics, Inc. (GXO). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 13.2 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 12.5%; net margin 1.0%; ROE 4.6%; net debt/EBITDA 0.0x.
The estimated value range is 38.68–60.23 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 47.00 USD, the price of 56.96 USD leaves a potential of -17.5% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -21.2% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 48/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 127.9%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 13.6%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 0.0x
- EV/EBITDA: 8.4x
What contradicts it
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -44.9%
- Interest coverage: 2.3x
- Current ratio: 0.8x
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 1.6%
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Transportation Services (SIC 4700) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 14 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BKNGBooking Holdings Inc. | 127.2 bn | 1.0 | — | — | +13.4% | −13% / +37% |
| EXPEExpedia Group, Inc. | 36.2 bn | 19.7 | 199.1% | 13.0% | +7.6% | +24% / +132% |
| XPOXPO, Inc. | 21.9 bn | 44.3 | 26.5% | 5.7% | +1.1% | +32% / +118% |
| GATXGATX Corporation | 6.7 bn | 17.6 | 14.2% | 17.7% | +9.8% | +19% / +75% |
| GXOGXO Logistics, Inc. | 6.4 bn | 48.4 | 4.6% | 1.0% | +12.5% | +3% / +6% |
| HAFNHafnia Limited | 4.9 bn | 6.5 | 34.5% | 27.0% | +7.4% | +64% / unavailable |
| RXORxo, Inc. | 4.7 bn | — | -5.7% | -1.3% | +26.2% | +115% / +35% |
| LINDLindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc. | 2.2 bn | 8,279.1 | — | 0.7% | +19.6% | +179% / +327% |
| TOURTuniu Corp | 1.5 bn | 473.0 | 3.0% | 5.4% | +17.5% | −35% / −47% |
| SPCEVirgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. | 380.5 m | — | -75.1% | -23,867.4% | −78.1% | −35% / −94% |
| VRRMVerra Mobility Corporation | 377.0 m | 10.4 | 11.3% | 33.2% | +14.6% | −89% / −88% |
| PALProficient Auto Logistics, Inc. | 82.5 m | — | -13.0% | — | unavailable | −64% / unavailable |
| NTRPNextTrip, Inc. | 18.1 m | — | -296.7% | -319.8% | +641.0% | −68% / −68% |
| YTRAMagna Holdings Ltd. | — | — | -2.0% | -1.3% | +85.2% | −50% / −43% |
| MMYTMakeMyTrip Ltd | — | 61.1 | 8.2% | 9.7% | +25.0% | −29% / +20% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for GXO from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 37.54 Total return -34% · Per year -34% | 66.11 Total return 16% · Per year 16% | 99.21 Total return 74% · Per year 74% |
| 3 years | 43.39 Total return -24% · Per year -9% | 85.28 Total return 50% · Per year 14% | 139.51 Total return 145% · Per year 35% |
| 5 years | 50.15 Total return -12% · Per year -3% | 110.03 Total return 93% · Per year 14% | 196.18 Total return 244% · Per year 28% |
- Exit P/E± 21.32
- Net margin± 14.92
- Annual revenue growth± 11.27
- Annual dilution± 1.25
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (04 Nov 2026), 8-K (03 Nov 2026 · results).
In brief
GXO Logistics is the world's largest pure-play contract logistics provider, running warehousing, distribution, e-commerce and returns for large retail, technology and industrial clients. The company is in a phase of organic growth, with new contract wins and a slightly adjusted 2026 outlook, while net debt after the Wincanton acquisition remains a point to watch against 2025 revenue of 13.2 bn USD.
SWOT
Strengths
- A pure-play leadership position in contract logistics, with blue-chip clients and long-term contracts 1.
- Proprietary technology platform and automation capability are described as a central competitive advantage 1.
- A diversified customer and vertical base with limited concentration on any single client 1.
Weaknesses
- Labour costs are a large share of expenses, and many fixed-price contracts limit passing increases on to customers 1.
- Quarterly results are seasonal, and weaker quarters can amplify profit swings 1.
- Higher debt after the Wincanton acquisition and higher financing costs reduce financial flexibility 13.
Opportunities
- Winning new contracts in strategic verticals and in North America could accelerate revenue growth 3.
- Expanding AI and automation services could improve productivity and margins if client adoption continues 3.
- Clients that outsource their logistics may bring new contracts, and their share of logistics budgets could grow over time 1.
Risks
- Competition and contract pressurehigh
Clients can solicit bids from several providers, and competitors accepting harsher terms could lead to lower margins 1.
- Labour costshigh
The workforce is largely hourly, and wage or legislative increases could weigh on profitability, especially in fixed-price contracts 1.
- Acquisition integrationmedium
Integrating Wincanton and any future acquisitions may face operational, IT and synergy difficulties, and the divestment of contracts required by the UK authority is not yet complete 13.
- Currency exposuremedium
Revenue and assets in euros and pounds sterling can fluctuate against the dollar, affecting reported figures 12.
- Contract penalties and tax disputeslow
Failing to meet contractual service levels can trigger penalties, and tax or regulatory disputes can create unexpected costs 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If recent contract wins and revenue already secured turn into sustained organic growth, the company could exceed its current guidance 3.
- A leading position in contract logistics, with large clients and long-term contracts, offers revenue visibility 1.
- Investment in automation and AI could improve margins as it extends across more sites 13.
What would break the thesis
- High net debt after the Wincanton acquisition could limit financial flexibility if results do not grow enough 3.
- Competitive pressure and labour costs could compress margins, especially in fixed-price contracts 1.
- Changes in senior finance and operations leadership may bring transition periods with execution risk 1.
What to watch
- Quarterly results and organic revenue growth against the 4% to 5% guidanceQ3 2026
- Investor Day on long-term strategy and financial framework16 November 2026
- Completion of the Wincanton contract divestment required by the CMA and its revenue impact2026
- Trajectory of net debt and free cash flow conversion against guidancenext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (04 Nov 2026), 8-K (03 Nov 2026 · results).
The business
GXO offers high-value-added warehousing and distribution, order fulfilment, e-commerce services and reverse logistics, differentiated by technology-enabled, customised solutions at scale 1. In 2025 the company operated in 26 countries with about 154,000 employees and 1,043 facilities totalling about 221 million square feet 1. The model is described as asset-light, with long-term contracts, some fixed-price and some cost-plus, which supports revenue stability 1.
Technology is central to the strategy: a cloud-based warehouse management platform, labour and inventory productivity tools, robotics and predictive demand analytics, especially for seasonal e-commerce peaks 1. The company says the data it processes is a competitive advantage, and in 2026 it launched the GXO IQ platform for AI and automation 3.
The Wincanton acquisition, completed in April 2024, makes comparisons between 2025 and 2024 less meaningful, and the divestment of certain UK grocery contracts required by the competition authority is still under way 1.
Segments
Omnichannel retail
This is the largest segment, accounting for 49% of 2025 revenue, which makes the company sensitive to consumer cycles and holiday seasonality 1.
Technology, industrial and other verticals
Technology and consumer electronics, industrial and manufacturing, food and beverage and consumer packaged goods contribute a smaller share together, and management is focusing on growth in strategic verticals such as aerospace and defence, technology, industrial and life sciences 13.
Market context
The contract logistics market is described as highly fragmented, with thousands of companies competing domestically and internationally, and e-commerce and omnichannel demand as the main growth driver 1. Revenue is concentrated in the United Kingdom, the United States, the Netherlands, France, Spain and Italy 1.
Activity is seasonal: the fourth quarter brings holiday peaks and the first quarter is usually weaker, so quarterly results are not directly comparable without adjusting for this effect 1.
Trends
- E-commerce and omnichannel growthtailwind
Rising online orders and returns increase demand for warehousing and reverse logistics services, which could support volumes over the long term 1.
- Automation and artificial intelligencetailwind
Robotics and AI tools could reduce reliance on labour and improve margins if the investments translate into productivity 13.
- Labour costsheadwind
Higher wages, temporary labour costs and legislative changes could compress margins, especially where contracts are fixed-price 1.
- Tax and currency conditionsmixed
Tariff changes, tax rules and currency swings, particularly the pound and euro, can affect reported results in dollars, though the effect can be positive in some periods 12.
Competitive position
The company competes directly with global and regional operators, and customers may solicit bids from several providers, which can press prices and margins 1. GXO says it differentiates itself through technology, scale and the ability to deliver customised solutions 1.
The risk of losing market share is heightened by the possibility that customers in-source their logistics, and competitors sometimes accept more onerous contract terms 1.
- CEVA Logistics
Global contract logistics operator named by the company as a principal direct competitor.
- DHL Group
International logistics group with contract logistics divisions, named among competitors.
- Kuehne + Nagel
Swiss international logistics provider, named among competitors.
- Ryder SystemR
US logistics and transportation provider, named among competitors.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report04 Nov 2026
- Current report03 Nov 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report03 Nov 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report20 Aug 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report05 Aug 2026
- Current report04 Aug 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report04 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report22 May 2026Shareholder vote
- Quarterly report06 May 2026
- Current report05 May 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / GXO Logistics, Inc. · 25 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / GXO Logistics, Inc. · 05 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / GXO Logistics, Inc. · 04 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.