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olivLaw · US equity research

RXO, Inc. RXO

Transportation Services · SIC 4700 · Vertical: Transportation Services (SIC 4700)

28.40USD+0.57% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

RXO is an asset-light brokered transportation platform built on proprietary digital technology, operating truck brokerage, managed transportation and last mile delivery. It matters now because the company reported a volume and gross-profit-per-load recovery in the second quarter of 2026 after a difficult period following the Coyote acquisition, a recovery that is still in early stages.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, RXO, Inc. (RXO) stock was 28.40 USD (+0.57% on the day), with market capitalisation 4.7 bn USD, beta 1.89, 52-week range 10.48–29.30 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 1.9 bn USD (+31.7% YoY), net income of 3.0 m USD, diluted EPS 0.02 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
4.7 bn USD
shares as of 27 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
Diluted EPS TTM -0.51 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
-1.81%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
1.89
Volatility (1y) 75%
52-week range
10.4829.30

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
62.9
strong (55–70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
27.54 – 29.49
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.44 · band width 6.8%
SMA 50 / 200
24.13 / 21.18
uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
1.00 / 1.33
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−0.9%−1.1%+0.2 pp—
3 months+35.2%−0.5%+35.7 pp—
6 months+44.8%+4.4%+40.4 pp—
Year to date+124.7%+12.3%+112.4 pp—
1 year+63.4%+13.5%+49.9 pp−21.0%
3 years+53.7%+76.4%−22.7 pp+10.7%
5 yearsunavailable+63.7%unavailable—
Max drawdown (1y)
−40.5%
05 Nov 2025 → 20 Nov 2025
Max drawdown (5y)
−67.1%
30 Jul 2024 → 20 Nov 2025
Compound annual growth (5y)
unavailable
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
1.9 bn USD
+31.7% YoY
Net income
3.0 m USD
unavailable YoY
Diluted EPS
0.02
unavailable YoY
net / operating
0.2% / 0.9%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue1.7 bn1.4 bn1.4 bn1.4 bn1.5 bn1.4 bn1.8 bn1.9 bn
Cost of revenue1.4 bn1.2 bn1.1 bn1.1 bn1.2 bn1.2 bn1.5 bn1.5 bn
SG&A218.0 m210.0 m214.0 m208.0 m200.0 m197.0 m211.0 m223.0 m
Operating income-24.0 m-30.0 m0-7.0 m-42.0 m-28.0 m1.0 m17.0 m
Depreciation & amortisation33.0 m32.0 m30.0 m26.0 m28.0 m26.0 m26.0 m28.0 m
Pre-tax income-33.0 m-39.0 m-10.0 m-15.0 m-51.0 m-49.0 m-8.0 m6.0 m
Income tax-8.0 m-8.0 m-1.0 m-1.0 m-5.0 m-13.0 m1.0 m3.0 m
Net income-25.0 m-31.0 m-9.0 m-14.0 m-46.0 m-36.0 m-9.0 m3.0 m
Diluted EPS-0.15 ≈-0.18-0.05-0.08-0.27 ≈-0.21-0.050.02
Operating cash flow-7.0 m-2.0 m23.0 m ≈23.0 m ≈7.0 m-7.0 m-40.0 m ≈25.0 m ≈
Capex12.0 m15.0 m14.0 m ≈14.0 m ≈16.0 m17.0 m12.0 m ≈13.0 m ≈
Share repurchases0———————

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Fiscal years

Fiscal year202020212022202320242025
Revenue3.4 bn4.7 bn4.8 bn3.9 bn4.6 bn5.7 bn
Revenue YoYunavailable+39.7%+2.3%−18.1%+15.9%+26.2%
Net income43.0 m150.0 m92.0 m4.0 m-290.0 m-100.0 m
Net income YoYunavailable+248.8%−38.7%−95.7%−7,350.0%unavailable
Diluted EPS0.371.300.790.03-2.17-0.59
Diluted EPS YoYunavailable+251.4%−39.2%−96.2%−7,333.3%unavailable
net %1.3%3.2%1.9%0.1%-6.4%-1.7%
Free cash flow-22.0 m116.0 m253.0 m25.0 m-57.0 m-8.0 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
17.0 m USD
Financial debt
17.0 m USD
Net debt
0 USD
Equity
1.5 bn USD
Total assets
3.3 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.01x
Current ratio
1.27x
ROE
-6.3%
ROA
-3.0%
FCF margin
-0.1%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
3.9 bn
2024
4.6 bn
2025
5.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
3.0 bn
2024
3.6 bn
2025
4.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
960.0 m ≈
2024
985.0 m ≈
2025
1.1 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026derived

SG&A
2023
591.0 m
2024
666.0 m
2025
832.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
39.0 m
2024
-56.0 m
2025
-79.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
67.0 m
2024
87.0 m
2025
116.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
106.0 m ≈
2024
31.0 m ≈
2025
37.0 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026derived

Pre-tax income
2023
4.0 m
2024
-304.0 m
2025
-115.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
0
2024
-14.0 m
2025
-15.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
4.0 m
2024
-290.0 m
2025
-100.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
0.03
2024
-2.17
2025
-0.59

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
119.5 m
2024
133.4 m
2025
168.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
5.0 m
2024
35.0 m
2025
17.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
743.0 m
2024
1.2 bn
2025
1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
796.0 m
2024
1.3 bn
2025
1.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
124.0 m
2024
135.0 m
2025
134.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
630.0 m
2024
1.1 bn
2025
1.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
68.0 m
2024
499.0 m
2025
453.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
1.8 bn
2024
3.4 bn
2025
3.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
414.0 m
2024
568.0 m
2025
539.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
3.0 m
2024
17.0 m
2025
17.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
682.0 m
2024
1.1 bn
2025
1.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
594.0 m †
2024
1.6 bn †
2025
1.5 bn †

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
89.0 m
2024
-12.0 m
2025
51.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
64.0 m
2024
45.0 m
2025
59.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
25.0 m ≈
2024
-57.0 m ≈
2025
-8.0 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-66.0 m
2024
-1.1 bn
2025
-71.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-117.0 m
2024
1.1 bn
2025
1.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
2.0 m
2024
0
2025
0

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
26.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
6.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
11.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Profitability

Gross margin
17.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBITDA margin
0.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBIT margin
-0.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
-1.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
-1.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
-5.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
-2.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
-2.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROCE
-2.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
10.0 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
0.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Debt / equity
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Interest coverage
unavailable
input data missing

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
-15.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
58.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
-73.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
unavailable
insufficient data
Cash conversion
-26.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
72 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
40 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
4.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
4.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
unavailable
insufficient data
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
Earnings yield
-1.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
3.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
0.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
83.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBIT
unavailable
insufficient data
EV/Sales
0.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/FCF
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF yield
-1.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
0.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Unattractive profile

Score: 22 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

score < 40

Closing price

28.40 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 4.7 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
4.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
P/B
3.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
83.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROE
-5.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
-1.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
26.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

29/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 27 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 29 Oct 2026
verified 709derived 63

Score by group

  • Balance sheet52
  • Valuation0
  • Quality13
  • Growth52
  • Returns0

Estimated value range

Low
2.94
USD per share
Mid
3.95
USD per share
High
5.71
USD per share
Price: 28.40 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -86.1% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -618.5% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: single method · 1 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 2.94 – 5.71 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA2.94 – 5.71 (Mid 3.95)
    6 companies used · median multiple 11.8x · quartiles 8.8x – 17.0x
    BKNG, EXPE, GXO, LIND, VRRM, XPO
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Transportation Services (SIC 4700)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Unattractive profile · Score 22/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality-2.8%11 (vs peers)16%
Net margin · Quality-1.3%17 (vs peers)10%
FCF conversion · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth6.2%52 (on a fixed band)13%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet0.2x57 (vs peers)16%
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.3x40 (on a fixed band)6%
P/E (TTM) · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
EV/EBITDA · Valuation83.8x0 (vs peers)16%
FCF yield · Valuation-1.6%0 (on a fixed band)13%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns0.0%0 (on a fixed band)10%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet52/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial52/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality13/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation0/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

RXO, INC. (RXO). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 5.7 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 26.2%; net margin -1.3%; ROE -5.7%; net debt/EBITDA 0.2x.

The estimated value range is 2.94–5.71 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 3.95 USD, the price of 28.40 USD leaves a potential of -86.1% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -618.5% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 22/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth, returns. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.

What contradicts it

  • ROIC: -2.8%
  • Net margin: -1.3%
  • EV/EBITDA: 83.8x
  • FCF yield: -1.6%
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.0%
  • The price is above the estimated value range

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Interest coverage, P/E (TTM), Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Transportation Services (SIC 4700) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 14 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
—
vertical median 32.0x
EV/EBITDA
83.8x
vertical median 11.8x
above median (+609.2%)
P/S
0.7x
vertical median 3.0x
below median (−76.2%)
P/B
3.1x
vertical median 2.3x
above median (+35.8%)
ROE
-5.7%
vertical median 6.4%
below median (−188.9%)
Net margin
-1.3%
vertical median 5.5%
below median (−124.3%)
EBIT margin
-0.8%
vertical median 8.7%
below median (−109.1%)
Revenue YoY
26.2%
vertical median 13.4%
above median (+95.7%)
Net debt/EBITDA
0.2x
vertical median 0.4x
below median (−58.7%)
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 1.4%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
BKNGBooking Holdings Inc.127.2 bn1.0——+13.4%−13% / +37%
EXPEExpedia Group, Inc.36.2 bn19.7199.1%13.0%+7.6%+24% / +132%
XPOXPO, Inc.21.9 bn44.326.5%5.7%+1.1%+32% / +118%
GATXGATX Corporation6.7 bn17.614.2%17.7%+9.8%+19% / +75%
GXOGXO Logistics, Inc.6.4 bn48.44.6%1.0%+12.5%+12% / +1%
HAFNHafnia Limited4.9 bn6.534.5%27.0%+7.4%+64% / unavailable
RXORxo, Inc.4.7 bn—-5.7%-1.3%+26.2%+63% / +54%
LINDLindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc.2.2 bn8,279.1—0.7%+19.6%+179% / +327%
TOURTuniu Corp1.5 bn473.03.0%5.4%+17.5%−35% / −47%
SPCEVirgin Galactic Holdings, Inc.380.5 m—-75.1%-23,867.4%−78.1%−35% / −94%
VRRMVerra Mobility Corporation377.0 m10.411.3%33.2%+14.6%−89% / −88%
PALProficient Auto Logistics, Inc.82.5 m—-13.0%—unavailable−64% / unavailable
NTRPNextTrip, Inc.18.1 m—-296.7%-319.8%+641.0%−68% / −68%
YTRAMagna Holdings Ltd.——-2.0%-1.3%+85.2%−50% / −43%
MMYTMakeMyTrip Ltd—61.18.2%9.7%+25.0%−29% / +20%

1- and 3-year price returns: for RXO from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
3 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
5 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
What moves the 3-year price the most

    AI analysis

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 06 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (29 Oct 2026).

    In brief

    RXO is an asset-light brokered transportation platform built on proprietary digital technology, operating truck brokerage, managed transportation and last mile delivery. It matters now because the company reported a volume and gross-profit-per-load recovery in the second quarter of 2026 after a difficult period following the Coyote acquisition, a recovery that is still in early stages 3.

    SWOT

    Strengths

    • A proprietary digital platform with pricing algorithms and market data built up over time 1.
    • An asset-light model that requires less capital and supports high returns on invested capital 1.
    • A customer base spread across many sectors, which reduces concentration risk 1.

    Weaknesses

    • Thin gross margins that are exposed to pressure from carrier purchase costs 3.
    • GAAP net losses in fiscal 2025 and the second quarter of 2026, alongside integration and restructuring costs 13.
    • Reliance on third-party carriers and independent contractors, with legal risk over their classification 1.

    Opportunities

    • A recovery in the freight cycle could lift volumes and profit per load, especially in the spot segment 3.
    • Still-low broker penetration in for-hire trucking leaves room for long-term growth 1.
    • Growth in complementary services such as managed transportation could diversify revenue 3.

    Threats

    • Intense competition and pricing pressure, especially during economic downturns 1.
    • Changes in rules on independent contractor status could raise costs 1.
    • Trade tariffs and international conflicts could reduce the volume of goods transported 1.

    Risks

    • Economic recessionhigh

      A decline in economic activity could reduce transport volumes and pressure margins 1.

    • Carrier classificationhigh

      Class and collective actions seeking to treat independent carriers as employees could create major costs 1.

    • Fuel price volatilitymedium

      Fuel surcharges do not always fully offset increases, and decreases reduce revenue 1.

    • Carrier price pressuremedium

      Higher carrier rates can compress margins, particularly on fixed-rate contracts 1.

    • Debt and refinancinglow

      The company has fixed-rate notes and a credit facility, and refinancing terms could become more costly 1.

    Investment thesis

    What would need to be true (bull case)

    • If the brokerage recovery continues, rising volumes and profit per load could rebuild margins hit by the cycle 3.
    • The digital model and pricing technology could support market share gains against traditional competitors 1.
    • Last mile and complementary services could add revenue that is steadier than spot brokerage 3.

    What would break the thesis

    • A company reporting losses across several periods could face difficulties if the recovery is delayed 13.
    • Very thin gross margins leave little room for pricing errors or cost increases 3.
    • Legal risks around independent carriers could change the business model 1.

    What to watch

    • Development of spot mix and gross profit per load in truck brokerageQ3 2026
    • Whether third-quarter adjusted EBITDA falls within the guided rangeQ3 2026
    • Outcome of the litigation over the status of independent carriersnext 10-K
    • Effect of the new ABL facility on liquidity and financing cost2027

    Products, market & competition

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 06 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (29 Oct 2026).

    The business

    RXO acts as an intermediary between shippers and independent carriers, using its RXO Connect digital platform to match truck capacity with transport demand. Revenue comes mainly from truck brokerage, complemented by managed transportation and last mile services. The company has one reportable segment, and fiscal 2025 revenue of $5.7 billion was supported largely by the Coyote acquisition, completed in September 2024 for $1.038 billion in cash 1.

    The asset-light model relies on non-exclusive, typically one-year renewable agreements with independent carriers, which limits fleet investment. The company earns through contract or spot pricing and pricing technology. Its customers are diversified, with the top five accounting for about 23% of 2025 revenue 1.

    As with other brokers, RXO depends on third parties for transport execution and must comply with FMCSA, customs and air cargo security rules. Its stated strategy centers on winning market share, growing broker penetration in contracted truckload and digitalization 1.

    Segments

    Truck brokerage

    The largest component of the business. In the second quarter of 2026 truckload volume grew 2% and spot mix reached 42% of volume 3. Brokerage gross margin was 10.7% in the same quarter 3.

    Complementary services

    Includes managed transportation, last mile and freight forwarding. Complementary services gross margin was 21.1% in the second quarter of 2026, and last mile stops grew 3% year over year 3.

    Last mile

    An asset-light service for consumer deliveries performed by third-party contractors. The company describes itself as the largest outsourced last mile provider for heavy goods in the United States 1.

    Market context

    The truck brokerage market is highly fragmented with thousands of competitors, and demand depends on economic activity and international trade. The company describes a cycle in which capacity exited the market in 2025, raising buy rates faster than contract sell rates 1. In the second quarter of 2026 RXO signalled the start of a recovery, with volume and profit per load rising 3.

    Over the long term the company points to still-low broker penetration in for-hire trucking and growing shipper demand for digital brokerage 1. If the recovery holds, margins could gradually rebuild, although a recession or new tariffs could reduce volumes.

    Trends

    • Freight cycle recoverytailwind

      The company says volume improved every month in the second quarter of 2026 and that gross profit per load and spot mix rose 3. If this continues it could support margins.

    • E-commerce and last mile demandtailwind

      Growth in e-commerce and direct-to-consumer deliveries supports demand for last mile services, which grew in volume in 2025 1.

    • Fuel costs and carrier capacitymixed

      Fuel prices and regulations that reduce capacity can raise purchase costs. The company notes that fuel surcharges do not always fully recover increases 1.

    • Tariffs and international uncertaintyheadwind

      Trade tariffs and international conflicts could weaken economic activity and transport volumes, affecting demand 1.

    Competitive position

    Competition is intense and comes from local, regional, national and international companies, some with larger customer bases and greater resources. The company lists C.H. Robinson, Echo Global Logistics, Expeditors, Forward Air, Flexport, J.B. Hunt, Landstar System, Total Quality Logistics and Uber Freight as primary competitors 1.

    Competition is based on service quality, capacity, technology, reliability and price. A specific risk is technology companies digitizing services aggressively and possibly removing the broker from the chain 1.

    • C.H. RobinsonCHRW

      Freight broker named as a primary competitor in the source.

    • J.B. HuntJBHT

      Transportation and logistics company named as a primary competitor.

    • Landstar SystemLSTR

      Transport operator named among the primary competitors.

    • Uber Freight

      Digital freight platform named as a competitor; no confirmed ticker in the sources.

    News & filings

    In the press

    No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

    SEC filings

    Sources

    1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / RXO, Inc. · 09 Feb 2026
    2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / RXO, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
    3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / RXO, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026

    Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.