olivlawolivlaw

olivLaw · US equity research

Gambling.com Group Limited GRSD

Services-Miscellaneous Amusement & Recreation · SIC 7990 · Vertical: Services-Miscellaneous Amusement & Recreation (SIC 7990)

0.83USD−1.88% · 1 dayClose 05 Nov 2026

GRANDSTAND, known in SEC filings as Gambling.com Group Limited, is a technology company providing marketing and sports data services to the online gambling industry. The business grew strongly in 2025 on the back of data acquisitions, yet the company reported a net loss for that year and its organic search traffic remains exposed to changes in Google's ranking algorithms.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Gambling.com Group Limited (GRSD) stock was 0.83 USD (−1.88% on the day), with market capitalisation 29.3 m USD, beta 1.24, 52-week range 0.83–6.88 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
29.3 m USD
shares as of 31 Dec 2025
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
Diluted EPS TTM -0.93 · TTM to 31 Dec 2025
E/P (TTM)
-111.51%
TTM to 31 Dec 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
1.24
Volatility (1y) 82%
52-week range
0.836.88

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
12.7
oversold (≤ 30)
Bollinger (20, 2)
0.86 – 1.60
below the lower band · %B -0.03 · band width 60.4%
SMA 50 / 200
1.51 / 2.79
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.17 / -0.14
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−44.8%−1.1%−43.7 pp—
3 months−56.0%−0.5%−55.5 pp—
6 months−81.1%+4.4%−85.5 pp—
Year to date−84.7%+12.3%−97.0 pp—
1 year−88.1%+13.5%−101.6 pp−33.4%
3 years−93.9%+76.4%−170.3 pp−22.6%
5 years−94.6%+63.7%−158.3 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−87.9%
10 Nov 2025 → 05 Nov 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−95.0%
14 Feb 2025 → 05 Nov 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
−44.2%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Fiscal years

Fiscal year2019202020212022⚠ 202320242025
Revenue19.3 m28.0 m42.3 m76.5 m108.7 m127.2 m165.4 m
Revenue YoYunavailable+45.2%+51.3%+80.8%—+17.1%+30.1%
Net income-1.9 m15.2 m12.5 m2.4 m18.3 m30.7 m-32.9 m
Net income YoYunavailableunavailable−17.8%−80.8%—+68.0%−207.3%
Diluted EPS-0.070.490.370.060.470.84-0.93
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailable−24.5%−83.8%—+78.7%−210.7%
net %-9.9%54.1%29.4%3.1%16.8%24.1%-19.9%
Free cash flow3.8 m10.8 m13.7 m18.4 m17.5 m36.3 m18.2 m

The series breaks before 2023: earlier years come from the original reports of the issuer of that time, later years from a subsequent filing that restated the perimeter (a separation, discontinued operations). The year-on-year change across the break is not shown.

Reported results vs expectations

Loading…

Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
15.8 m USD
Financial debt
118.6 m USD
Net debt
102.8 m USD
Equity
108.0 m USD
Total assets
299.7 m USD
Debt / equity
1.10x
Current ratio
1.21x
ROE
-28.5%
ROA
-13.8%
FCF margin
11.0%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
108.7 m
2024
127.2 m
2025
165.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
9.1 m
2024
7.5 m
2025
15.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
99.5 m
2024
119.6 m
2025
150.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Operating income
2023
21.8 m
2024
35.7 m
2025
-31.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Interest expense
2023
2.3 m
2024
3.1 m
2025
8.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
20.1 m
2024
34.2 m
2025
-32.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Income tax
2023
1.9 m
2024
3.5 m
2025
522.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Net income
2023
18.3 m
2024
30.7 m
2025
-32.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
0.47
2024
0.84
2025
-0.93

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
38.5 m
2024
36.3 m
2025
35.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
25.4 m
2024
13.7 m
2025
15.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Receivables
2023
21.9 m
2024
21.2 m
2025
26.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Inventories
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Mar 2023verified

Current assets
2023
47.4 m
2024
34.9 m
2025
42.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
908.0 k
2024
1.8 m
2025
2.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
9.1 m
2024
11.5 m
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Mar 2025verified

Total assets
2023
154.9 m
2024
178.6 m
2025
299.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
10.8 m
2024
10.2 m
2025
13.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
0
2024
3.3 m
2025
10.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
0
2024
19.6 m
2025
108.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
32.7 m
2024
29.7 m
2025
35.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
35.9 m
2024
55.4 m
2025
191.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Equity
2023
118.9 m
2024
123.2 m
2025
108.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Shares outstanding at year end
2023
—
2024
34.8 m
2025
35.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
17.9 m
2024
37.6 m
2025
19.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Capex
2023
451.0 k
2024
1.3 m
2025
863.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
17.5 m ≈
2024
36.3 m ≈
2025
18.2 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-19.5 m
2024
-43.8 m
2025
-98.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-3.1 m
2024
-5.2 m
2025
81.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
2.6 m
2024
27.1 m
2025
5.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
30.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
29.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
42.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
-189.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
-207.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
-210.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
-49.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
90.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EBITDA margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT margin
-19.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net margin
-19.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
FCF margin
11.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Returns

ROE
-28.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
ROA
-13.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
ROIC
-15.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
ROCE
-12.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
102.8 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
1.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Interest coverage
-3.8x
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
0.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025

Cash

Operating cash flow
19.1 m USD
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Capital expenditure
863.0 k USD
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Free cash flow
18.2 m USD
computed by olivLawFY 2025
FCF conversion
unavailable
insufficient data
Cash conversion
unavailable
input data missing

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
53 days
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
283 days
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
29.3 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Enterprise value
132.1 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Market cap / net income TTM
unavailable
insufficient data
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
Earnings yield
-111.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
P/B
0.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
P/S
0.2x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
insufficient data
EV/Sales
0.8x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
P/FCF
1.6x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
FCF yield
62.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
19.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • score weight coverage: 50.0% of at least 60%

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

0.83 USD

05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 29.3 m USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
29.3 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
P/B
0.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
-28.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Net margin
-19.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue growth (YoY)
30.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

30/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 31 Dec 2025
Latest balance sheet date: 31 Dec 2025
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 31 Dec 2025
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 19 Mar 2026
verified 197

Score by group

50% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

Low
17.46
USD per share
Mid
26.10
USD per share
High
48.45
USD per share
Price: 0.83 USD
The price is below the range
Potential to the central value: 3,029.2% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 96.8% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: single method · 1 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 17.46 – 48.45 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)17.46 – 48.45 (Mid 26.10)
    WACC 5.9% · starting FCFF 25.3 m USD · terminal value share of EV 86%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Services-Miscellaneous Amusement & Recreation (SIC 7990)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 50.0% of at least 60%

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality-15.6%38 (vs peers)21%
Net margin · Quality-19.9%32 (vs peers)13%
FCF conversion · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth29.3%100 (on a fixed band)17%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheet-3.8x0 (on a fixed band)13%
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.2x34 (on a fixed band)8%
P/E (TTM) · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation62.3%100 (on a fixed band)17%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns19.1%100 (on a fixed band)13%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet14/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality35/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

Grandstand Limited (GRSD). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 165.4 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 30.1%; net margin -19.9%; ROE -28.5%.

The estimated value range is 17.46–48.45 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 26.10 USD, the price of 0.83 USD leaves a potential of 3,029.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 96.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 50.0% of at least 60%).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 29.3%
  • FCF yield: 62.3%
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 19.1%
  • The price is below the estimated value range

What contradicts it

  • Interest coverage: -3.8x

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Services-Miscellaneous Amusement & Recreation (SIC 7990) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 20 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
—
vertical median 32.1x
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 10.4x
P/S
0.2x
vertical median 1.8x
below median (−90.3%)
P/B
0.3x
vertical median 2.0x
below median (−86.5%)
ROE
-28.5%
vertical median -11.2%
below median
Net margin
-19.9%
vertical median 0.7%
below median (−3,059.8%)
EBIT margin
-19.2%
vertical median 2.3%
below median (−919.8%)
Revenue YoY
30.1%
vertical median 4.7%
above median (+535.9%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 3.5x
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 2.2%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
DISWalt Disney Co205.4 bn24.57.8%8.7%+3.4%+14% / +28%
MTNVail Resorts, Inc.5.6 bn38.544.4%5.2%−4.3%+13% / −27%
RSIRush Street Interactive, Inc.2.4 bn39.423.0%2.6%+22.8%−35% / +183%
BRSLBrightstar Lottery PLC1.9 bn13.511.6%5.9%−0.0%−36% / −63%
PRKSUnited Parks & Resorts Inc.1.7 bn14.9—8.1%−3.6%+5% / −23%
PRSUPursuit Attractions and Hospitality, Inc.1.5 bn32.17.7%9.6%+23.4%+57% / +62%
NIPGNIP Group Inc.413.9 m—-15.9%-14.9%+1.9%−92% / unavailable
SEGSeaport Entertainment Group Inc.275.7 m—-22.6%-91.4%+18.3%+0% / unavailable
GENIGenius Sports Limited59.2 m—-17.2%-16.7%+31.0%−41% / +7%
SEATVivid Seats Inc.30.8 m0.02,000.9%278.1%−30.5%−64% / −98%
GRSDGrandstand Limited29.3 m—-28.5%-19.9%+30.1%−88% / −94%
FCHLFitness Champs Holdings Limited11.4 m—-349.1%-32.9%+4.7%−100% / unavailable
FBYDFalcon’s Beyond Global, Inc.68—-100.8%-36.0%+120.8%−67% / −35%
MSGEMadison Square Garden Entertainment Corp.—37.1—8.6%+12.5%+52% / +149%
CDROCodere Online Luxembourg, S.A.——17.3%1.9%+24.2%+19% / +159%
MSGSMsg Knickerbockers Corp.—1,015.6—0.7%+11.0%+43% / +92%
ENHAEnhanced Group Inc.——-1,903.4%—unavailableunavailable / unavailable
DKNGDraftkings Inc.——-21.1%-2.7%+27.0%−29% / −38%
STUBStubhub Holdings, Inc.——-145.8%-91.3%−1.4%−46% / unavailable
XPOFXponential Fitness, Inc.———-401.5%−20.7%−33% / −68%
GDHGGolden Heaven Group Holdings Ltd.——-6.5%-56.2%−31.5%−74% / −100%

1- and 3-year price returns: for GRSD from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
3 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
5 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
What moves the 3-year price the most

    AI analysis

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 19 Mar 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (13 Aug 2026), 6-K (22 Jul 2026), 6-K (21 May 2026), 6-K (14 May 2026).

    In brief

    GRANDSTAND, known in SEC filings as Gambling.com Group Limited, is a technology company providing marketing and sports data services to the online gambling industry. The business grew strongly in 2025 on the back of data acquisitions, yet the company reported a net loss for that year and its organic search traffic remains exposed to changes in Google's ranking algorithms.

    SWOT

    Strengths

    • The company holds a broad portfolio of premium branded sites and a large set of domain names with development potential 1.
    • The sports data segment generates recurring subscription revenue, reducing dependence on a single channel 1.
    • The company has received several industry awards and maintains long-standing relationships with many operators 1.

    Weaknesses

    • Dependence on organic search traffic from search engines leaves revenue vulnerable to algorithm changes 1.
    • The company reported a net loss in 2025 after a profitable prior year, and its adjusted EBITDA margin fell from 2024 1.
    • The company identified material weaknesses in internal control over financial reporting 1.

    Opportunities

    • Regulation of online gambling in new US states and Canadian provinces could open new markets 1.
    • Expanding data subscriptions to operators and prediction markets could raise the share of recurring revenue 1.
    • Acquiring under-monetised websites could add revenue if integration succeeds 1.

    Threats

    • Zero-click searches and AI-generated answers could reduce traffic to the company's sites 1.
    • Stricter regulation or higher taxes could limit advertising and revenue potential 1.
    • Losing one of its largest customers could materially affect results 1.

    Risks

    • Dependence on Googlehigh

      Organic traffic comes mainly from Google, and algorithm changes can cut revenue quickly 1.

    • Zero-click searchhigh

      AI results and zero-click searches could reduce the number of users reaching the company's sites 1.

    • Regulationmedium

      Changes to advertising and licensing rules could restrict the company's activity 1.

    • Customer concentrationmedium

      A small number of customers provide a significant share of revenue, and long-term contracts are rare 1.

    • Acquisition integrationmedium

      Meeting expectations from recent acquisitions depends on rapid integration of technology and teams, and impairment has already affected results 1.

    Investment thesis

    What would need to be true (bull case)

    • The sports data segment is growing quickly and brings recurring revenue, which could reduce reliance on performance marketing 1.
    • North America, now the largest market, could keep expanding as more states legalise online gambling 1.
    • The company reports a high adjusted EBITDA margin and holds a large portfolio of domains with development potential 1.

    What would break the thesis

    • Organic traffic fell sharply after Google updates, and new search formats could reduce access to the sites further 1.
    • The company reported a net loss in 2025 and organic revenue declined, raising questions about underlying growth 1.
    • Internal control weaknesses and dependence on a few large customers could weigh on the stability of results 1.

    What to watch

    • Organic traffic trends after Google updates and the effect of AI searchQ1 2027
    • Contribution of the data segment after integrating OddsJam and OpticOdds2027
    • Remediation of material weaknesses in internal controlnext 10-K
    • Regulation in new US states and the effect on North American revenue2027

    Products, market & competition

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 19 Mar 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (13 Aug 2026), 6-K (22 Jul 2026), 6-K (21 May 2026), 6-K (14 May 2026).

    The business

    The company runs two complementary segments: performance marketing, which refers users to casino and sports betting operators through sites such as Gambling.com, Bookies.com and Casinos.com, and sports data, sold on subscription under the OddsJam, OpticOdds and RotoWire brands. Revenue reached 165,447 thousand USD in 2025, up 30% from 2024 1. The company says it covers 22 national markets in more than ten languages 1.

    Growth in 2025 was driven mainly by the OddsJam acquisition in January 2025, which added subscription data revenue. Marketing grew more slowly, and organic revenue declined by 2% 1. The company relies on a performance-based model, with contracts based on revenue share, cost per acquisition or both.

    Strategy aims to diversify revenue through complementary services, expand in North America, now its largest market, and make strategic acquisitions. The company reported a net loss of 32,930 thousand USD in 2025, so returns depend on integrating acquisitions and sustaining traffic.

    Segments

    Sports data and subscriptions

    The data segment rose to 41,127 thousand USD in 2025, a 25% share of the total compared with 7% in 2024 1. The OpticOdds, OddsJam and RotoWire products are sold to operators, prediction markets and individual users on monthly or annual subscriptions 1.

    Market context

    The core market is online gambling, regulated step by step across several US states and Canadian provinces, which opens growth opportunities. However, an increase in gaming taxes could reduce revenue potential 1. North America contributed 87,235 thousand USD in 2025, or 53% of revenue 1.

    The company also operates in the UK, Ireland and Europe, where stable regulation offers a predictable framework. Revenue is seasonal: sports has large swings tied to the event calendar, while casino is steadier 1.

    Trends

    • Changes to search algorithmsheadwind

      Organic traffic depends largely on Google, and algorithm updates can reduce visibility. A March 2025 update led to an approximate 40% drop in organic traffic for Gambling.com 1.

    • AI-driven searchheadwind

      AI answer engines and AI Overviews reduce clicks to external sites. AI platforms were estimated at about 12–15% of global search activity in early 2026 1.

    • Wider US regulationtailwind

      Several US states are legalising online gambling, which could open new markets for affiliate marketing and sports data 1.

    • Demand for real-time sports datamixed

      Betting operators, prediction markets and media firms buy real-time data subscriptions, which could support growth in the data segment if the acquisitions are integrated successfully 1.

    Competitive position

    The company competes with other affiliate marketing firms, media companies and direct operators, many of which invest heavily in SEO, content and paid search 1. Larger and more established competitors could have an advantage under the authority criteria Google emphasises 1.

    In sports data, the company faces providers of betting data and odds platforms, but the sources consulted do not name specific competitors in that category 1.

    • Other gambling affiliates

      Affiliate marketing companies competing for organic traffic and operator partners, referred to generically in the SEC filing 1.

    • Media companies

      Content publishers investing in SEO and paid search that can win search visibility 1.

    • Direct gambling operators

      Casino and betting operators that can compete for traffic directly, though they are also the company's customers 1.

    • AI answer platforms

      Services such as ChatGPT, Gemini and Perplexity that could partly replace traditional search 1.

    News & filings

    Sources

    1. [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Gambling.com Group Limited · 19 Mar 2026

    Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.