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olivLaw · US equity research

Vivid Seats Inc. SEAT

Services-Miscellaneous Amusement & Recreation · SIC 7990 · Vertical: Services-Miscellaneous Amusement & Recreation (SIC 7990)

2.74USD−3.86% · 1 dayClose 05 Nov 2026

Vivid Seats is an online ticket marketplace that connects fans with live event sellers through its own technology and the Skybox ERP tool. Volumes contracted sharply in 2025, and the first half of 2026 shows a modest recovery supported by demand from the FIFA World Cup. The company updated its 2026 guidance, so the trend in volumes and profitability is still to be watched. The key base figures are 2.7 billion USD of Marketplace gross order value in 2025 and 659.4 million USD in the second quarter of 2026.

At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Vivid Seats Inc. (SEAT) stock was 2.74 USD (−3.86% on the day), with market capitalisation 30.8 m USD, P/E 2.4 on diluted EPS of 1.12 USD over the last 12 months, beta 1.28, 52-week range 2.18–10.87 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 103.9 m USD (−9.2% YoY), net income of -14.3 m USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
30.8 m USD
shares as of 31 Jul 2026
P/E (TTM)
2.4
Diluted EPS TTM 1.12 · TTM to 31 Dec 2024
E/P (TTM)
40.88%
TTM to 31 Dec 2024
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
1.28
Volatility (1y) 92%
52-week range
2.1810.87

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
41.9
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
2.18 – 3.20
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.55 · band width 37.7%
SMA 50 / 200
3.77 / 6.32
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.33 / -0.44
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−10.7%−1.1%−9.7 pp—
3 months−65.2%−0.5%−64.8 pp—
6 months−69.5%+4.4%−73.8 pp—
Year to date−62.0%+12.3%−74.3 pp—
1 year−77.0%+13.5%−90.5 pp−33.4%
3 years−97.8%+76.4%−174.2 pp−22.6%
5 years−99.0%+63.7%−162.7 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−79.9%
10 Nov 2025 → 27 Oct 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−99.2%
09 Nov 2021 → 27 Oct 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
−60.0%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
103.9 m USD
−9.2% YoY
Net income
-14.3 m USD
unavailable YoY
Diluted EPS
unavailable
unavailable YoY
net / operating
-13.8% / unavailable

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue152.7 m165.2 m133.7 m114.5 m104.8 m97.5 m97.5 m103.9 m
Depreciation & amortisation10.7 m ≈12.6 m11.6 m12.3 m ≈13.7 m ≈11.7 m12.3 m12.3 m ≈
Net income10.6 m-9.6 m-10.6 m-335.4 m-30.2 m1.2 bn-14.6 m-14.3 m ≈
Diluted EPS——-0.94———-1.35—
Operating cash flow-19.2 m ≈47.8 m-25.3 m-28.6 m ≈512.0 k ≈-38.2 m46.0 m-799.0 k ≈
Capex389.0 k ≈3.5 m1.8 m207.0 k ≈10.0 k ≈111.0 k23.0 k0 ≈
Share repurchases2.9 m ≈-16.0 k6.0 m9.9 m ≈2.4 m ≈3.0 k00 ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 2-quarter history (min 24.5, median 53.6, max 82.7; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year2019202020212022202320242025
Revenue403.6 m23.3 m389.7 m511.1 m597.4 m647.9 m450.5 m
Revenue YoYunavailable−94.2%+1,573.8%+31.2%+16.9%+8.5%−30.5%
Net income-53.8 m-774.2 m-5.0 m70.8 m69.4 m13.4 m806.1 m
Net income YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable−1.9%−80.7%+5,903.2%
Diluted EPSunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable5.151.12unavailable
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable−78.3%unavailable
net %-13.3%-3,325.4%-1.3%13.9%11.6%2.1%178.9%
Free cash flow75.2 m-34.2 m174.7 m10.8 m146.4 m49.7 m-93.8 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
102.7 m USD
Financial debt
399.9 m USD
Net debt
297.2 m USD
Equity
-85.1 m USD
Total assets
636.9 m USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
0.59x
ROE
unavailable
ROA
70.9%
FCF margin
-20.8%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
597.4 m
2024
647.9 m
2025
450.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
17.2 m
2024
44.2 m
2025
49.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
70.9 m
2024
22.7 m
2025
-652.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Income tax
2023
-42.2 m
2024
8.4 m
2025
69.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Net income
2023
69.4 m
2024
13.4 m
2025
806.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
5.15
2024
1.12
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
9.9 m
2024
10.5 m
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
125.5 m
2024
243.5 m
2025
102.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Inventories
2023
21.0 m
2024
19.6 m
2025
18.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Current assets
2023
246.0 m
2024
345.2 m
2025
178.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
10.2 m
2024
12.6 m
2025
12.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
947.4 m
2024
943.1 m
2025
283.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
241.2 m
2024
233.1 m
2025
141.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Total assets
2023
1.6 bn
2024
1.6 bn
2025
636.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
257.5 m
2024
233.0 m
2025
153.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
16.2 m
2024
18.7 m
2025
16.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
264.6 m
2024
385.0 m
2025
383.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
487.8 m
2024
425.8 m
2025
303.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
963.3 m
2024
1.0 bn
2025
722.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Equity
2023
105.0 m
2024
261.1 m
2025
-85.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
147.3 m
2024
53.9 m
2025
-91.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Capex
2023
895.0 k
2024
4.2 m
2025
2.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
146.4 m ≈
2024
49.7 m ≈
2025
-93.8 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-225.6 m
2024
-26.7 m
2025
-20.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-43.4 m
2024
86.1 m
2025
-29.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
20.1 m
2024
23.0 m
2025
18.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
-30.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
-4.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
80.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing
Net income growth (YoY)
5,903.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
125.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
input data missing
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
FCF growth (YoY)
-288.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT margin
unavailable
input data missing
Net margin
278.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
1.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
2,000.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
122.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
unavailable
equity is negative: buybacks shrink the invested capital and ROIC would come out large without meaning anything
ROCE
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
245.2 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
Interest coverage
unavailable
input data missing

Liquidity

Current ratio
0.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
0.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash ratio
0.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
7.5 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
144.0 k USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
7.4 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
0.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion
unavailable
input data missing

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
30.8 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
276.0 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
0.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
0.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Earnings yield
3,646.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
P/S
0.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
0.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/FCF
4.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
FCF yield
23.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
input data missing
Shareholder yield (distributions)
7.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • score weight coverage: 50.0% of at least 60%

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

2.74 USD

05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 30.8 m USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
30.8 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
0.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
2,000.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
278.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
-30.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
input data missing

Coverage and freshness

26/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 31 Jul 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 04 Aug 2026
verified 568derived 49

Score by group

50% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

Low
1,970.48
USD per share
Mid
3,206.30
USD per share
High
3,774.53
USD per share
Price: 2.74 USD
The price is below the range
Potential to the central value: 116,918.1% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 99.9% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: single method · 1 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 1,970.48 – 3,774.53 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: P/E1,970.48 – 3,774.53 (Mid 3,206.30)
    7 companies used · median multiple 32.1x · quartiles 19.7x – 37.8x
    BRSL, DIS, MSGE, MTN, PRKS, PRSU, RSI
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · input data missing
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Services-Miscellaneous Amusement & Recreation (SIC 7990)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 50.0% of at least 60%

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality278.1%100 (vs peers)13%
FCF conversion · Quality0.7%0 (on a fixed band)13%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth-4.1%0 (on a fixed band)17%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet0.7x0 (on a fixed band)8%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation0.0x100 (vs peers)21%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation23.9%100 (on a fixed band)17%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns7.9%100 (on a fixed band)13%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality50/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation100/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

Vivid Seats Inc. (SEAT). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 450.5 m USD in 2025; YoY growth -30.5%; net margin 278.1%; ROE 2,000.9%.

The estimated value range is 1,970.48–3,774.53 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 3,206.30 USD, the price of 2.74 USD leaves a potential of 116,918.1% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 99.9% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 50.0% of at least 60%).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Net margin: 278.1%
  • P/E (TTM): 0.0x
  • FCF yield: 23.9%
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 7.9%
  • The price is below the estimated value range

What contradicts it

  • FCF conversion: 0.7%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: -4.1%
  • Current ratio: 0.7x

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Services-Miscellaneous Amusement & Recreation (SIC 7990) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 20 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
0.0x
vertical median 34.6x
below median (−99.9%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 10.4x
P/S
0.1x
vertical median 1.8x
below median (−95.8%)
P/B
—
vertical median 1.9x
ROE
2,000.9%
vertical median -16.5%
above median
Net margin
278.1%
vertical median -2.7%
above median
EBIT margin
—
vertical median 2.3%
Revenue YoY
-30.5%
vertical median 11.0%
below median (−376.3%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 3.5x
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 2.2%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
DISWalt Disney Co205.4 bn24.57.8%8.7%+3.4%+14% / +28%
MTNVail Resorts, Inc.5.6 bn38.544.4%5.2%−4.3%+13% / −27%
RSIRush Street Interactive, Inc.2.4 bn39.423.0%2.6%+22.8%−35% / +183%
BRSLBrightstar Lottery PLC1.9 bn13.511.6%5.9%−0.0%−36% / −63%
PRKSUnited Parks & Resorts Inc.1.7 bn14.9—8.1%−3.6%+5% / −23%
PRSUPursuit Attractions and Hospitality, Inc.1.5 bn32.17.7%9.6%+23.4%+57% / +62%
NIPGNIP Group Inc.413.9 m—-15.9%-14.9%+1.9%−92% / unavailable
SEGSeaport Entertainment Group Inc.275.7 m—-22.6%-91.4%+18.3%+0% / unavailable
GENIGenius Sports Limited59.2 m—-17.2%-16.7%+31.0%−41% / +7%
SEATVivid Seats Inc.30.8 m0.02,000.9%278.1%−30.5%−77% / −98%
GRSDGrandstand Limited29.3 m—-28.5%-19.9%+30.1%−85% / −91%
FCHLFitness Champs Holdings Limited11.4 m—-349.1%-32.9%+4.7%−100% / unavailable
FBYDFalcon’s Beyond Global, Inc.68—-100.8%-36.0%+120.8%−67% / −35%
MSGEMadison Square Garden Entertainment Corp.—37.1—8.6%+12.5%+52% / +149%
ENHAEnhanced Group Inc.——-1,903.4%—unavailableunavailable / unavailable
DKNGDraftkings Inc.——-21.1%-2.7%+27.0%−29% / −38%
STUBStubhub Holdings, Inc.——-145.8%-91.3%−1.4%−46% / unavailable
XPOFXponential Fitness, Inc.———-401.5%−20.7%−33% / −68%
CDROCodere Online Luxembourg, S.A.——17.3%1.9%+24.2%+19% / +159%
GDHGGolden Heaven Group Holdings Ltd.——-6.5%-56.2%−31.5%−74% / −100%
MSGSMsg Knickerbockers Corp.—1,015.6—0.7%+11.0%+43% / +92%

1- and 3-year price returns: for SEAT from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
1.48
Total return -46% · Per year -46%
2.63
Total return -4% · Per year -4%
3.97
Total return 45% · Per year 45%
3 years
1.20
Total return -56% · Per year -24%
2.42
Total return -12% · Per year -4%
4.04
Total return 48% · Per year 14%
5 years
0.97
Total return -65% · Per year -19%
2.22
Total return -19% · Per year -4%
4.12
Total return 50% · Per year 8%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 0.60
  • Net margin± 0.42
  • Annual revenue growth± 0.38
  • Annual dilution± 0.04

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

Vivid Seats is an online ticket marketplace that connects fans with live event sellers through its own technology and the Skybox ERP tool. Volumes contracted sharply in 2025, and the first half of 2026 shows a modest recovery supported by demand from the FIFA World Cup. The company updated its 2026 guidance, so the trend in volumes and profitability is still to be watched. The key base figures are 2.7 billion USD of Marketplace gross order value in 2025 and 659.4 million USD in the second quarter of 2026 13.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The platform has a loyalty program considered the most comprehensive among key competitors, and an ERP tool widely adopted by sellers 1.
  • The company describes a scalable cost structure and a balance sheet that supports it through difficult periods 1.
  • The Vegas.com and Wavedash brands add access to local markets and to specific distribution partners 1.

Weaknesses

  • Marketplace volumes fell significantly in 2025, showing dependence on consumer demand 1.
  • The company depends on search engines for traffic, and customer acquisition costs have risen during a period of intense competition 1.
  • The net result was heavily affected by impairment in 2025, and the net loss continued in the first half of 2026 2.

Opportunities

  • Large international sporting events can generate additional demand and short-term rebounds 3.
  • Expanding seller tools such as Skybox Drive could attract more sellers and transactions to the platform 1.
  • If cost reduction produces lasting efficiency, adjusted profitability could improve in the coming years 2.

Threats

  • Changes to search engine algorithms or mobile app marketplace rules could reduce traffic and platform visibility 1.
  • Intense competition could compress prices and margins, and resale restrictions in some jurisdictions can limit activity 1.
  • Extraordinary events such as epidemics or natural disasters can cancel performances and trigger refunds 1.

Risks

  • Dependence on live event demandhigh

    Volumes depend on the supply of shows and on consumer discretionary spending, and an economic slowdown could reduce sales 1.

  • Dependence on search engine algorithmshigh

    Organic and paid traffic from search engines is essential, and changes to algorithms can affect the platform's visibility 1.

  • Intense competitionmedium

    Competitors may offer more favourable terms or increase marketing spend, which could compress margins 1.

  • Resale regulationmedium

    Some jurisdictions limit ticket resale through price caps or bans, which directly affects the company's activity 1.

  • Net losses and debtmedium

    The net loss and shareholders' deficit on the balance sheet could limit financial flexibility if results do not improve 2.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If the second-quarter recovery holds and the 2026 guidance is met, the company could show that volumes have stabilised after a difficult year 3.
  • The platform offers seller tools and a loyalty program that can support customer retention during periods of intense competition 1.
  • Cost reduction could turn restructuring into better margins over the long term, if volumes recover 2.

What would break the thesis

  • Marketplace order volumes fell sharply in 2025, and the 2026 recovery could remain fragile if demand from major events fades 13.
  • The net loss and shareholders' deficit show that profitability is not yet stable 2.
  • Dependence on search engines and competitive intensity could keep raising customer acquisition costs 1.

What to watch

  • Efectul reducerii costurilor asupra marjelorQ4 2026
  • Delivery against the 2026 guidance for Marketplace GOV and adjusted EBITDAnext 10-K
  • Evolution of order volumes after major sporting eventsQ3 2026
  • Effect of cost reduction on marginsQ4 2026
  • How artificial intelligence changes search traffic for tickets2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

Vivid Seats acts as an intermediary between ticket buyers, sellers and partners, earning revenue from service and delivery fees paid by buyers, without holding inventory in the Marketplace segment 1. The company has two segments: Marketplace, which includes the Vivid Seats platform, Vegas.com and Wavedash, and Resale, which resells tickets on secondary markets, including its own, and supports Skybox development 1. For sellers, Skybox is a free and widely used ERP, while the Vivid Seats Rewards program and buyer guarantees are central to the value proposition 1.

The stated strategy emphasises raising awareness of the value proposition, attracting and retaining buyers, expanding seller tools and building partnerships with media companies, leagues, teams and venues 1. In October 2025 the company completed a corporate simplification that cancelled its Class B shares and amended the tax receivable agreement 2.

Against falling volumes, the company ran a cost reduction program that continued to generate severance-related expenses in the first half of 2026 2. Marketplace order numbers fell significantly in 2025, and management links this to uncertainty in discretionary consumer spending and competitive intensity in performance marketing 12.

Segments

Marketplace

The Marketplace segment generated 2.7 billion USD of gross order value in 2025, with revenue from service and delivery fees that depend on the volume of transactions processed on the platform 1. By category, tickets cover concerts, sports and theater, a mix that limits exposure to any single category and reduces seasonal variation 1.

Resale

The Resale segment acquires tickets to resell on secondary markets and supports Skybox development 1. Resale order numbers stayed nearly flat in 2025, falling 1%, so this segment plays a smaller role in the overall trend than Marketplace 1.

Market context

The company describes live events as a long-term opportunity supported by durable supply and demand, but warns that economic factors and competitive intensity can continue to weigh on volumes 2. Performance depends heavily on high-impact events that can change sales quickly within a quarter 3.

Trends

  • Demand from major eventsmixed

    Management stated that the second quarter of 2026 was supported by demand created by the FIFA World Cup, which allowed sequential growth; an effect of this kind could nevertheless be temporary 3.

  • Pressure from discretionary spendingheadwind

    A decline in consumer discretionary spending was cited as a reason for lower volumes in 2025, and if this pressure persists it could limit the revenue recovery 2.

  • Artificial intelligence in ticket searchmixed

    The company notes that artificial intelligence is changing how consumers search for tickets, and rapid adaptation to this channel could be decisive for keeping traffic 1.

  • Cost reduction and efficiencytailwind

    The cost reduction program, with headcount cuts and related payments, is meant to produce a more efficient structure, but restructuring costs continued into 2026 2.

Competitive position

Vivid Seats competes with other primary and secondary ticketing providers for buyers, sellers and partners; the main competitors named are StubHub, Ticketmaster, SeatGeek and TicketNetwork 1. Key factors include variety of offer, price, traffic from search engines, brand recognition and technology 1. Stated advantages include the loyalty program and Skybox, the most widely adopted ERP in the industry 1.

Competitive pressure in performance marketing channels has raised the cost of paid search, and a change in search engine algorithms can affect the platform's visibility 12. If competitors offer more favourable terms or consolidation raises their market share, margins and volumes could be affected 1.

  • StubHub

    Main competitor named in the secondary ticket market, against which the company compares its offer and pricing 1.

  • Ticketmaster

    Ticketing platform named as a main competitor, particularly for acquiring buyers and sellers 1.

  • SeatGeek

    Ticketing platform identified as a direct competitor in resale and ticket sales 1.

  • TicketNetwork

    Professional ticket reseller named as one of the company's main competitors 1.

News & filings

In the press

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Vivid Seats Inc. · 12 Mar 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Vivid Seats Inc. · 04 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Vivid Seats Inc. · 04 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.