olivLaw · US equity research
Harmonic Inc. HLIT
Radio & Tv Broadcasting & Communications Equipment · SIC 3663 · Vertical: Radio & Tv Broadcasting & Communications Equipment (SIC 3663)
Harmonic provides broadband access solutions, centred on its cOS software platform, to cable and telco operators worldwide. After selling its Video division it now operates as a pure-play broadband company, and quarterly revenue grew strongly in 2026 with a raised annual outlook.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Harmonic Inc. (HLIT) stock was 10.21 USD (+0.20% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.1 bn USD, beta 1.45, 52-week range 8.85–17.11 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 133.5 m USD (+53.5% YoY), net income of -2.3 m USD (−180.9% YoY), diluted EPS -0.02 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 42.1
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 9.83 – 11.19
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.28 · band width 12.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 11.05 / 11.58
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.22 / -0.22
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −9.0% | −1.1% | −7.9 pp | — |
| 3 months | −14.8% | −0.5% | −14.3 pp | — |
| 6 months | −16.2% | +4.4% | −20.6 pp | — |
| Year to date | +3.2% | +12.3% | −9.1 pp | — |
| 1 year | −2.1% | +13.5% | −15.7 pp | +0.5% |
| 3 years | −6.1% | +76.4% | −82.5 pp | +58.8% |
| 5 years | −4.9% | +63.7% | −68.6 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 03 Jul 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 195.8 m | 31.6 m | 84.9 m | 86.9 m | 142.4 m | -53.0 m | 121.7 m | 133.5 m |
| Cost of revenue | 91.0 m | 32.8 m | 38.4 m | 47.1 m | 65.3 m | 1.7 m | 58.1 m | 63.6 m |
| Gross profit | 104.7 m | -1.2 m | 46.5 m | 39.8 m | 77.1 m | -54.8 m | 63.6 m | 69.9 m |
| Research & development | 30.1 m | -17.0 m | 19.7 m | 18.0 m | 29.7 m | -14.2 m | 20.9 m | 21.2 m |
| SG&A | 35.9 m | -35.4 m | 19.8 m | 20.5 m | 36.5 m | -30.4 m | 22.3 m | 24.6 m |
| Operating income | 35.4 m | 64.5 m | 7.0 m | -754.0 k | 9.8 m | -9.7 m | 20.4 m | 23.6 m |
| Interest expense | 2.7 m | 1.6 m | 1.3 m | 1.1 m | 1.2 m | -112.0 k | 1.1 m | 1.1 m |
| Pre-tax income | 28.8 m | 69.7 m | 5.1 m | -3.0 m | 8.7 m | -11.3 m | 19.3 m | 22.0 m |
| Income tax | 7.1 m | 20.1 m | 2.7 m | -2.2 m | 6.1 m | -1.1 m | 9.7 m | 4.9 m |
| Net income | 21.7 m | 38.1 m | 5.9 m | 2.9 m | 2.7 m | -54.8 m | 7.3 m | -2.3 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.19 | 0.32 ≈ | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.02 | -0.49 ≈ | 0.07 | -0.02 |
| Operating cash flow | 8.7 m ≈ | 48.5 m | 83.6 m | -11.7 m ≈ | 23.8 m ≈ | 12.3 m | 31.7 m | -58.0 m ≈ |
| Capex | 3.0 m ≈ | 2.3 m | 1.9 m | 3.8 m ≈ | 2.7 m ≈ | 2.7 m | 1.4 m | 1.6 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 0 ≈ | 0 | 36.1 m | 14.0 m ≈ | 15.7 m ≈ | 13.3 m | 43.0 m | -1.0 k ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | ⚠ 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 403.6 m | 402.9 m | 378.8 m | 507.1 m | 625.0 m | 388.5 m | 488.2 m | 360.5 m |
| Revenue YoY | +12.6% | −0.2% | −6.0% | +33.9% | +23.2% | — | +25.7% | −26.2% |
| Net income | -21.0 m | -5.9 m | -29.3 m | 13.3 m | 28.2 m | 84.0 m | 39.2 m | -43.3 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | +112.6% | — | −53.3% | −210.4% |
| Diluted EPS | unavailable | -0.07 | -0.30 | 0.12 | 0.25 | 0.72 | 0.33 | -0.38 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | +108.3% | — | −54.2% | −215.2% |
| net % | -5.2% | -1.5% | -7.7% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 21.6% | 8.0% | -12.0% |
| Free cash flow | 5.2 m | 21.0 m | 7.0 m | 28.0 m | -3.8 m | -1.4 m | 52.7 m | 96.9 m |
The series breaks before 2023: earlier years come from the original reports of the issuer of that time, later years from a subsequent filing that restated the perimeter (a separation, discontinued operations). The year-on-year change across the break is not shown.
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 124.1 m USD
- Financial debt
- 112.1 m USD
- Net debt
- -12.0 m USD
- Equity
- 383.2 m USD
- Total assets
- 718.5 m USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.29x
- Current ratio
- 2.50x
- ROE
- -10.2%
- ROA
- -5.7%
- FCF margin
- 26.9%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 378.8 m | 507.1 m | 625.0 m | 388.5 m | 488.2 m | 360.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 183.8 m | 247.4 m | 309.1 m | 210.4 m | 248.1 m | 185.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 195.0 m | 259.7 m | 315.9 m | 178.1 m | 240.1 m | 174.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Research & development | 82.5 m | 102.2 m | 120.3 m | 69.7 m | 72.6 m | 76.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| SG&A | 119.6 m | 138.1 m | 146.7 m | 78.3 m | 79.2 m | 81.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | -12.4 m | 18.8 m | 45.5 m | 30.0 m | 74.7 m | 14.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 11.5 m | 10.6 m | 5.0 m | 2.7 m | 6.5 m | 3.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -26.2 m | 8.9 m | 44.5 m | 27.8 m | 71.5 m | 8.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 3.1 m | -4.4 m | 16.3 m | -60.5 m | 20.8 m | 7.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | -29.3 m | 13.3 m | 28.2 m | 84.0 m | 39.2 m | -43.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.30 | 0.12 | 0.25 | 0.72 | 0.33 | -0.38 | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 97.0 m | 106.2 m | 112.4 m | 117.4 m | 117.5 m | 114.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 98.6 m | 133.4 m | 89.6 m | 84.3 m | 101.5 m | 124.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 66.2 m | 88.5 m | 108.4 m | 141.5 m | 143.7 m | 85.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 35.0 m | 71.2 m | 120.9 m | 84.0 m | 43.1 m | 47.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 238.0 m | 323.1 m | 345.3 m | 330.7 m | 565.1 m | 494.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 43.1 m | 42.7 m | 39.8 m | 36.7 m | 25.2 m | 25.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 243.7 m | 240.2 m | 237.7 m | 60.8 m | 60.8 m | 60.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 508.0 k | — | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2021verified |
| Total assets | 591.5 m | 693.7 m | 710.0 m | 768.2 m | 796.5 m | 718.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 23.5 m | 64.4 m | 67.5 m | 38.6 m | 28.3 m | 23.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | — | — | — | — | 2.2 m | 2.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 21.8 m | 18.0 m | 15.9 m | 0 | 112.1 m | 109.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 147.3 m | 224.5 m | 322.1 m | 272.4 m | 192.3 m | 197.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 333.2 m | 396.9 m | 385.5 m | 331.3 m | 331.2 m | 335.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 258.3 m † | 295.9 m † | 324.5 m † | 436.9 m † | 465.3 m † | 383.2 m † | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 39.2 m | 41.0 m | 5.5 m | 7.1 m | 61.9 m | 108.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 32.2 m | 13.0 m | 9.3 m | 8.5 m | 9.2 m | 11.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 7.0 m ≈ | 28.0 m ≈ | -3.8 m ≈ | -1.4 m ≈ | 52.7 m ≈ | 96.9 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -32.2 m | -13.0 m | -1.3 m | -8.5 m | -9.2 m | -11.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -2.1 m | 7.9 m | -43.1 m | -5.0 m | -33.3 m | -81.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | SEC (XBRL)· 14 Feb 2025verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 0 | 5.1 m | 0 | 30.0 m | 79.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
4 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 27 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
score < 40
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 1.1 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet100
- Valuation24
- Quality29
- Growth0
- Returns100
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 1.53 – 21.90 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)1.53 – 1.76 (Mid 1.61)WACC 8.9% · starting FCFF 4.1 m USD · terminal value share of EV 73%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
- Peers: EV/Sales3.23 – 21.90 (Mid 5.89)10 companies used · median multiple 1.5x · quartiles 0.7x – 6.6xAVNW, BKSY, CRNT, GILT, KUST, MSI, QCOM, UI, VISN, WATT
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Unattractive profile · Score 27/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross margin · Quality | 45.2% | 13 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| EBIT margin · Quality | 12.8% | 75 (vs peers) | 9% |
| FCF margin · Quality | 0.4% | 2 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -16.8% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 18% |
| Revenue growth (YoY) · Growth | -26.2% | 0 (vs peers) | 9% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 3.0x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| EV/Sales · Valuation | 2.9x | 40 (vs peers) | 18% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 0.1% | 2 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 6.5% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Growth0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality29/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns100/100 · 1/1 factors with a value
- Valuation24/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
HARMONIC INC. (HLIT). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-07-03.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 360.5 m USD in 2025; YoY growth -26.2%; net margin -13.7%; ROE -11.7%.
The estimated value range is 2.38–11.83 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 3.75 USD, the price of 10.21 USD leaves a potential of -63.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -171.9% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 27/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: balance. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- EBIT margin: 12.8%
- Current ratio: 3.0x
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 6.5%
What contradicts it
- Gross margin: 45.2%
- FCF margin: 0.4%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -16.8%
- Revenue growth (YoY): -26.2%
- FCF yield: 0.1%
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Net debt / EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Radio & Tv Broadcasting & Communications Equipment (SIC 3663) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 20 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QCOMQualcomm Inc | 185.3 bn | 13.6 | 52.8% | 31.6% | −2.6% | +3% / +34% |
| MSIMotorola Solutions, Inc. | 82.2 bn | 40.0 | 77.2% | 16.5% | +8.0% | +34% / +54% |
| UIUbiquiti Inc. | 34.0 bn | 35.4 | 91.1% | 29.3% | +27.2% | −4% / +400% |
| PLPlanet Labs PBC | 3.3 bn | — | -72.0% | -95.1% | +25.9% | +6% / +421% |
| ONDSOndas Inc. | 3.0 bn | 18.0 | 20.1% | 96.0% | +605.3% | −33% / +381% |
| VISNVistance Networks, Inc. | 1.5 bn | 0.2 | 22,304.0% | 247.7% | +39.7% | −67% / +286% |
| HLITHarmonic Inc. | 1.1 bn | — | -11.7% | -13.7% | −26.2% | −2% / −6% |
| BKSYBlacksky Technology Inc | 686.3 m | — | -44.8% | -61.2% | +4.4% | −5% / +59% |
| UMACUnusual Machines, Inc. | 650.9 m | — | -2.9% | -20.3% | +101.2% | +49% / unavailable |
| GILTGilat Satellite Networks Ltd. | 521.2 m | 20.8 | 5.2% | 4.6% | +47.9% | −39% / +10% |
| AVNWAviat Networks, Inc. | 254.8 m | 104.7 | 1.0% | 0.6% | +1.2% | −10% / −34% |
| BKTIBK Technologies Corp | 252.4 m | 19.7 | 30.6% | 15.0% | +12.5% | +5% / +415% |
| CRNTCeragon Networks Ltd | 176.8 m | — | -1.2% | -0.6% | −14.1% | −2% / +6% |
| VUZIVuzix Corp | 171.4 m | — | -122.7% | -519.0% | +9.1% | −25% / −3% |
| SATLSatellogic Inc. | 87.6 m | — | — | -325.6% | +37.6% | +95% / +140% |
| AIRGAirgain, Inc. | 55.4 m | — | -23.7% | -13.6% | −14.6% | +4% / +76% |
| WATTEnergous Corporation | 45.0 m | — | -32.8% | -76.4% | +633.1% | +30% / −87% |
| CMTLComtech Telecommunications Corp | 37.4 m | — | -50.5% | -14.5% | −17.0% | −59% / −90% |
| KUSTKustom Entertainment, Inc. | 22.6 m | — | -323.8% | -126.5% | +1.7% | −98% / −100% |
| NOKNokia Corporation | — | — | 3.1% | 3.3% | +3.5% | +36% / +137% |
| ERICEricsson Lm Telephone Co | — | — | 27.9% | 12.0% | −4.5% | +15% / +126% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for HLIT from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 17 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (02 Nov 2026 · results).
In brief
Harmonic provides broadband access solutions, centred on its cOS software platform, to cable and telco operators worldwide. After selling its Video division it now operates as a pure-play broadband company, and quarterly revenue grew strongly in 2026 with a raised annual outlook 3.
SWOT
Strengths
- The cOS software platform is backed by a patent portfolio and commercial deployments at multiple customers 13. The company can deliver both DOCSIS and FTTH on the same infrastructure 1. The balance sheet was strengthened after the Video sale 3.
- Revenue growth in the second quarter of 2026 and a rapidly growing backlog point to solid demand 3. A high share of Rest-of-Market bookings suggests a customer base that is diversifying 3.
- Gross margins improved in 2026 compared with the prior year, partly due to a favourable product mix 2.
Weaknesses
- Customer concentration is high, and one customer accounted for more than half of 2025 revenue 1. Losing a major customer would significantly affect results 1.
- Revenue is sensitive to customers' investment timing and the completion of large projects, which can cause quarterly swings 1.
- Research and development spending is high relative to revenue, and larger rivals have greater resources 1.
Opportunities
- If operators accelerate DOCSIS 4.0 and distributed architecture adoption, demand for cOS solutions could grow 1. The raised 2026 outlook points to a sustained growth pace 3.
- Proceeds from the Video sale could be used to accelerate growth in the Broadband segment and expand the fibre portfolio 3.
- Diversifying toward customers outside the largest group and expanding beyond the Americas could reduce dependence on a few customers 3.
Threats
- Larger competitors could pressure prices and bundle more complete solutions, which would reduce margins 1.
- A slowdown in operator investment, caused by economic conditions or tariffs, could delay orders 1.
- Rapid changes in technology standards could make some products less relevant if they are not launched in time 1.
Risks
- Customer concentrationhigh
A small number of customers generates most revenue, and losing or reducing orders from a major one would affect results 1.
- DOCSIS 4.0 deployment delayshigh
Customer adoption timing can slip, which already reduced revenue in 2025 and could affect future quarters 1.
- Price competitionmedium
Better-resourced competitors or aggressive pricing could reduce the company's margins 1.
- Reliance on external suppliersmedium
Production relies on contract manufacturers and sole or limited suppliers for many components, which can cause delays 1.
- Execution after the Video salelow
The company must deploy the proceeds and run the Broadband strategy without the Video business, and results may differ from past periods 12.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Strong revenue growth in the second quarter of 2026, combined with a rapidly growing backlog, suggests solid demand for cOS solutions 3.
- The company has exited the Video division, received the sale proceeds and now operates as a pure-play broadband company, which may simplify its strategy 23.
- Diversification toward new customers and a raised outlook could show that dependence on a few customers is gradually falling 3.
What would break the thesis
- Customer concentration remains very high, and losing one major customer could cancel the recent progress 1.
- Revenue fell in 2025 because of deployment delays, which shows results can be volatile 1.
- Larger competitors have superior resources and can bundle solutions, which could limit the company's ability to hold market share 1.
What to watch
- Revenue and gross margin trend against quarterly guidanceQ3 2026
- Backlog and Rest-of-Market bookings dynamicsQ3 2026
- Pace of DOCSIS 4.0 adoption among top operators2027
- Use of Video sale proceeds and capital allocation strategynext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 17 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (02 Nov 2026 · results).
The business
Harmonic is a global provider of broadband access solutions that let operators deploy high-speed internet, voice and video services more efficiently 1. The Broadband segment, including the cOS software platform and related services, is the only reportable segment after the Video business sale, which closed on June 16, 2026 2. The company sells through a direct sales force, resellers and systems integrators, and its revenue is highly concentrated: one customer accounted for 54% of fiscal 2025 revenue 1.
Segments
Broadband (the only continuing segment)
The Broadband segment includes the cOS software solutions, which run on commercial servers and connect to distributed access nodes, plus hardware such as DAA nodes, shelves and OLT modules for FTTH 1. Appliance and integration revenue, covering hardware and licences, reached $117.0 million in the quarter ended July 3, 2026, while recurring SaaS and service revenue was $16.4 million 2.
Market context
The market for cable and telco operators depends on customers' capital spending, which is influenced by economic conditions, access to financing, industry consolidation and technology standards such as DOCSIS 4.0 1. Growing bandwidth demand from video-on-demand, remote work and AI applications could support operator investment in software and distributed architectures 1. The company's revenue is currently concentrated in the Americas, which generated 89% of 2025 revenue 1.
Trends
- Shift to software architecturestailwind
Operators are moving toward virtualised architectures that run on commercial servers and reduce space and power costs, a central advantage for cOS 1. If this transition accelerates, the company's software portfolio could benefit.
- DOCSIS 4.0 and FTTH adoptionmixed
The DOCSIS 4.0 standard is being adopted in some markets, and the company argues its solutions support both DOCSIS and PON services on one platform 1. The deployment timetable directly influences order volume.
- Delays in customer deploymentsheadwind
Hardware revenue fell in 2025 because of deployment delays linked to DOCSIS 4.0 and network readiness 1. If such delays recur, quarterly revenue could fluctuate.
- Tariffs and economic uncertaintyheadwind
Tariffs and economic instability can delay operator purchasing decisions and affect payment terms 1. The effect on the company would depend on the scale and duration of these measures.
Competitive position
The broadband networking equipment market is highly competitive, with rapid technological change and declining prices 1. Larger competitors may have greater financial and technical resources, broader product lines and longer relationships with customers 1. Harmonic states that it competes favourably on performance, functionality and reliability 1.
- Networking and communications equipment suppliers to broadband operators
The source does not name individual competitors; the company only says many of them are larger and can offer more complete solutions 1.
- Larger competitors with broader product lines
These competitors can bundle products and have established operator relationships, which gives them an edge in uncertain periods 1.
- Smaller competitors pursuing aggressive pricing
Smaller firms may compete on low prices to win customers and share, which pressures margins 1.
- FTTH and PON technology providers
As fibre extends deeper into networks, competition for FTTH services could intensify 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Robinhood CEO's AI startup Harmonic expands into software, chip design verificationCNA (Channel NewsAsia) · 27 Oct 2026 · EN
- Harmonic Security Raises $50 Million for Workforce AI ProtectionSecurityWeek · 14 Oct 2026 · EN
- Memora: A Harmonic Memory Representation Balancing Abstraction and SpecificityHacker News · 29 Jun 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 27 Oct 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 02 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Current report02 Nov 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report17 Aug 2026
- Current report12 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report17 Jun 2026Acquisition or disposition of assets · Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report08 Jun 2026Regulation FD disclosure
- Current report05 Jun 2026Shareholder vote
- Quarterly report13 May 2026
- Current report11 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement24 Apr 2026
- Current report02 Apr 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Harmonic Inc. · 24 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-07-03 · SEC / Harmonic Inc. · 17 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Harmonic Inc. · 12 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.