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olivLaw · US equity research

Unusual Machines, Inc. UMAC

Radio & Tv Broadcasting & Communications Equipment · SIC 3663 · Vertical: Radio & Tv Broadcasting & Communications Equipment (SIC 3663)

13.03USD−10.88% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Unusual Machines makes drone components and drones compliant with the NDAA, manufactured in the United States, for B2B customers in defense and commercial markets. Demand grew quickly in 2026 amid federal policies that favor domestic suppliers, and second-quarter revenue reached 16.7 million USD.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Unusual Machines, Inc. (UMAC) stock was 13.03 USD (−10.88% on the day), with market capitalisation 650.9 m USD, beta 3.01, 52-week range 7.76–34.06 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 16.7 m USD (+687.3% YoY), net income of -7.8 m USD, diluted EPS -0.16 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
650.9 m USD
shares as of 06 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
Diluted EPS TTM -0.19 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
-1.48%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
3.01
Volatility (1y) 126%
52-week range
7.7634.06

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
27.3
oversold (≤ 30)
Bollinger (20, 2)
13.11 – 21.20
below the lower band · %B -0.01 · band width 47.2%
SMA 50 / 200
20.99 / 19.13
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-1.93 / -1.72
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−40.3%−1.1%−39.2 pp—
3 months−49.4%−0.5%−48.9 pp—
6 months−8.6%+4.4%−13.0 pp—
Year to date+2.3%+12.3%−10.0 pp—
1 year+7.9%+13.5%−5.7 pp+0.5%
3 yearsunavailable+76.4%unavailable+56.4%
5 yearsunavailable+63.7%unavailable—
Max drawdown (1y)
−61.7%
14 Aug 2026 → 04 Nov 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−75.6%
30 Dec 2024 → 07 Apr 2025
Compound annual growth (5y)
unavailable
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
16.7 m USD
+687.3% YoY
Net income
-7.8 m USD
unavailable YoY
Diluted EPS
-0.16
unavailable YoY
net / operating
-46.5% / -46.8%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue1.5 m2.0 m2.0 m2.1 m2.1 m4.9 m8.1 m16.7 m
Cost of revenue1.1 m1.4 m1.5 m1.3 m1.3 m3.1 m5.4 m10.9 m
Gross profit399.5 k554.2 k496.8 k794.7 k840.4 k1.8 m2.7 m5.8 m
Research & development15.0 k48.5 k7.9 k62.7 k39.4 k92.6 k91.1 k430.8 k
Operating income-1.5 m-12.9 m-3.3 m-7.2 m-5.0 m-9.7 m-7.3 m-7.8 m
Depreciation & amortisation17171.6 k20.6 k20.6 k22.4 k77.6 k64.8 k75.3 k
Interest expense41.5 k15.3 k0000368281
Pre-tax income——-3.3 m———10.3 m—
Income tax——0———0—
Net income-2.1 m-27.1 m-3.3 m-7.0 m1.6 m-10.6 m10.3 m-7.8 m
Diluted EPS-0.30-2.70 ≈-0.21-0.320.05-0.29 ≈0.21-0.16
Operating cash flow-536.7 k ≈-1.3 m-1.2 m-2.7 m ≈-7.5 m ≈-9.8 m-17.4 m-21.5 m ≈
Capex0 ≈00262.8 k ≈1.3 m ≈511.5 k698.2 k-189.9 k ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Fiscal years

Fiscal year2022202320242025
Revenue005.6 m11.2 m
Revenue YoYunavailableunavailableunavailable+101.2%
Net income-1.2 m-2.4 m-32.0 m-19.2 m
Net income YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
Diluted EPS-0.29-0.72-3.84-0.74
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
net %unavailableunavailable-574.6%-171.4%
Free cash flow-1.2 m-1.8 m-4.0 m-23.2 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
103.3 m USD
Financial debt
unavailable USD
Net debt
unavailable USD
Equity
174.9 m USD
Total assets
182.7 m USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
29.28x
ROE
-20.2%
ROA
-19.3%
FCF margin
-207.5%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
0
2024
5.6 m
2025
11.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
0
2024
4.0 m
2025
7.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
0
2024
1.5 m
2025
3.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Research & development
2023
0
2024
90.6 k
2025
202.6 k

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Operating income
2023
-2.4 m
2024
-17.0 m
2025
-25.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
5.6 k
2024
72.2 k
2025
141.3 k

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
-2.4 m ≈
2024
-16.9 m ≈
2025
-25.0 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
0
2024
117.0 k
2025
0

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
-2.4 m
2024
-32.0 m
2025
-19.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Income tax
2023
0
2024
-13.4 k
2025
-36.3 k

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Net income
2023
-2.4 m
2024
-32.0 m
2025
-19.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
-0.72
2024
-3.84
2025
-0.74

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
3.3 m
2024
8.3 m
2025
26.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
894.8 k
2024
3.8 m
2025
103.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Receivables
2023
0
2024
66.6 k
2025
1.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Inventories
2023
0
2024
1.3 m
2025
5.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Current assets
2023
1.0 m
2024
6.1 m
2025
159.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
1.3 k
2024
570
2025
2.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
0
2024
7.4 m
2025
15.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
0
2024
2.2 m
2025
2.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Total assets
2023
1.5 m
2024
16.1 m
2025
182.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
114.5 k
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Aug 2024verified

Current liabilities
2023
114.5 k
2024
933.7 k
2025
5.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
114.5 k
2024
1.3 m
2025
7.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Equity
2023
1.4 m †
2024
14.8 m †
2025
174.9 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 14 May 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
-1.8 m
2024
-4.0 m
2025
-21.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Capex
2023
3.2 k
2024
0
2025
2.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
-1.8 m ≈
2024
-4.0 m ≈
2025
-23.2 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-3.2 k
2024
-852.8 k
2025
-37.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-424.9 k
2024
7.7 m
2025
157.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
101.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Revenue CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
EPS growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Profitability

Gross margin
34.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBITDA margin
-92.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
-93.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
-20.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
-183.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
-2.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
-2.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
unavailable
input data missing
ROCE
-7.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
unavailable
input data missing
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
unavailable
input data missing
Interest coverage
-45,896.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
53.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash ratio
33.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
-56.2 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
2.3 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
-58.5 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
unavailable
insufficient data
Cash conversion
unavailable
insufficient data

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
54 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
650.9 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
unavailable
input data missing
Market cap / net income TTM
unavailable
insufficient data
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
Earnings yield
-1.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
1.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
20.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
unavailable
input data missing
P/FCF
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF yield
-9.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

4 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • score weight coverage: 55.3% of at least 60%
  • valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

13.03 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 650.9 m USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
650.9 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
P/B
1.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
-2.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
-20.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
101.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

30/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 06 Aug 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 06 Aug 2026
verified 480derived 36

Score by group

55% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

unavailable — no valuation method could be computed

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: EV/Salesunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)

no valuation method could be computed

Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Radio & Tv Broadcasting & Communications Equipment (SIC 3663)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 55.3% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

FactorValueScoreWeight used
Gross margin · Quality34.8%0 (on a fixed band)19%
EBIT margin · Quality-93.5%10 (vs peers)15%
FCF margin · Quality-183.7%0 (on a fixed band)15%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Revenue growth (YoY) · Growth101.2%90 (vs peers)15%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet53.8x100 (on a fixed band)12%
EV/Sales · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation-9.0%0 (on a fixed band)23%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial90/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality3/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/1 factors with a value
  • Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

Unusual Machines, Inc. (UMAC). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 11.2 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 101.2%; net margin -20.3%; ROE -2.9%.

Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.

Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 55.3% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Revenue growth (YoY): 101.2%
  • Current ratio: 53.8x

What contradicts it

  • Gross margin: 34.8%
  • EBIT margin: -93.5%
  • FCF margin: -183.7%
  • FCF yield: -9.0%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Revenue CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/Sales, Shareholder yield (distributions).

Versus the vertical median

Radio & Tv Broadcasting & Communications Equipment (SIC 3663) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 20 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
—
vertical median 20.2x
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 12.4x
P/S
20.4x
vertical median 3.0x
above median (+579.2%)
P/B
1.7x
vertical median 2.8x
below median (−40.9%)
ROE
-2.9%
vertical median 1.0%
below median (−407.4%)
Net margin
-20.3%
vertical median -0.0%
below median
EBIT margin
-93.5%
vertical median 1.6%
below median (−5,978.8%)
Revenue YoY
101.2%
vertical median 6.2%
above median (+1,534.5%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median -0.4x
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 1.0%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
QCOMQualcomm Inc185.3 bn13.652.8%31.6%−2.6%+3% / +34%
MSIMotorola Solutions, Inc.82.2 bn40.077.2%16.5%+8.0%+34% / +54%
UIUbiquiti Inc.34.0 bn35.491.1%29.3%+27.2%−4% / +400%
PLPlanet Labs PBC3.3 bn—-72.0%-95.1%+25.9%+6% / +421%
ONDSOndas Inc.3.0 bn18.020.1%96.0%+605.3%−33% / +381%
VISNVistance Networks, Inc.1.5 bn0.222,304.0%247.7%+39.7%−67% / +286%
HLITHarmonic Inc.1.1 bn—-11.7%-13.7%−26.2%+7% / −8%
BKSYBlacksky Technology Inc686.3 m—-44.8%-61.2%+4.4%−5% / +59%
UMACUnusual Machines, Inc.650.9 m—-2.9%-20.3%+101.2%+8% / unavailable
GILTGilat Satellite Networks Ltd.521.2 m20.85.2%4.6%+47.9%−39% / +10%
AVNWAviat Networks, Inc.254.8 m104.71.0%0.6%+1.2%−10% / −34%
BKTIBK Technologies Corp252.4 m19.730.6%15.0%+12.5%+5% / +415%
CRNTCeragon Networks Ltd176.8 m—-1.2%-0.6%−14.1%−2% / +6%
VUZIVuzix Corp171.4 m—-122.7%-519.0%+9.1%−25% / −3%
SATLSatellogic Inc.87.6 m——-325.6%+37.6%+95% / +140%
AIRGAirgain, Inc.55.4 m—-23.7%-13.6%−14.6%+4% / +76%
WATTEnergous Corporation45.0 m—-32.8%-76.4%+633.1%+30% / −87%
CMTLComtech Telecommunications Corp37.4 m—-50.5%-14.5%−17.0%−59% / −90%
KUSTKustom Entertainment, Inc.22.6 m—-323.8%-126.5%+1.7%−98% / −100%
ERICEricsson Lm Telephone Co——27.9%12.0%−4.5%+15% / +126%
NOKNokia Corporation——3.1%3.3%+3.5%+36% / +137%

1- and 3-year price returns: for UMAC from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
3 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
5 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
What moves the 3-year price the most

    AI analysis

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    In brief

    Unusual Machines makes drone components and drones compliant with the NDAA, manufactured in the United States, for B2B customers in defense and commercial markets. Demand grew quickly in 2026 amid federal policies that favor domestic suppliers, and second-quarter revenue reached 16.7 million USD 3.

    SWOT

    Strengths

    • The company has recognized brands in the FPV and small military segments, including Unusual Machines, Rotor Riot and Fat Shark 1.
    • U.S.-made production that is NDAA-compliant and validated through the Blue Framework list is an advantage in public sector procurement 1.
    • The capital base built through share issuances allows the company to fund expansion without relying on debt 3.

    Weaknesses

    • The company has recurring net losses and has not yet reached profitability, and stock-based compensation expense was very large 1.
    • Reliance on a small number of customers, one of which accounts for a majority of quarterly revenue, creates high concentration 3.
    • Many components are sourced from suppliers without long-term binding contracts, exposing production to disruption 1.

    Opportunities

    • Federal policies and defense drone programs could increase demand for NDAA-compliant components 13.
    • The Upgrade Energy acquisition could add battery manufacturing and broaden the company's product range 2.
    • If domestic production expands, the company could supply more component categories, including cameras and batteries 3.

    Threats

    • Larger competitors with substantially greater resources could reduce the company's market share 1.
    • Tariffs and inflationary pressures could affect costs and margins 1.
    • Policy changes or the end of conflicts could reduce demand for certain products, as the company itself cautions 1.

    Risks

    • Dependence on large customershigh

      A single customer accounted for a majority of second-quarter revenue, and large orders are not always backed by formal contracts 13.

    • Inventory build-uphigh

      The company ordered substantial inventory ahead of purchase orders, which could lead to write-downs if demand does not materialize 1.

    • Margin pressuremedium

      Rapid production scale-up may reduce gross margins in the short term, and management expects declines in the coming quarters 3.

    • Supplier dependencemedium

      The lack of long-term contracts with suppliers and possible supply chain interruptions could delay deliveries 1.

    • Regulatory litigationlow

      DJI's court challenge to the FCC restrictions could change the market, and the outcome cannot be predicted 1.

    Investment thesis

    What would need to be true (bull case)

    • Rising quarterly revenue and capital allocation could allow the company to reach operating breakeven in the coming period 3.
    • Defense programs and restrictions on foreign drones could significantly expand demand for the U.S. component maker 13.
    • Expansion into batteries and cameras, through the Upgrade Energy acquisition and capacity investments, could widen the product range and revenue per customer 23.

    What would break the thesis

    • Recurring net losses and very large stock-based compensation could dilute shareholders and extend the path to profitability 13.
    • Revenue concentration in a few customers could make quarterly results volatile, especially if large orders do not repeat 3.
    • Low gross margins during scale-up and competition from much larger producers could limit profit growth 13.

    What to watch

    • Operating breakeven and positive cash flow from operationsQ1 2027
    • Gross margin trend after new production lines start upQ3 2026
    • Closing of the Upgrade Energy acquisition and integration of battery productionQ3 2026
    • Customer concentration in quarterly revenue and orders from the Drone Dominance program2027

    Products, market & competition

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    The business

    The company, headquartered in Orlando, Florida, designs and sells drone components and drones under the Unusual Machines, Rotor Riot and Fat Shark brands, particularly in the FPV and small military segments 1. In 2025, enterprise customers became the main revenue driver, while retail sales through the Rotor Riot platform declined as a share 1. The company is onshoring drone component production, with six components approved for the Blue Framework list as of the filing 1.

    In September 2025 the company acquired Rotor Lab Pty. Ltd., an Australian firm, and in May 2026 it signed an agreement to acquire Upgrade Energy, a maker of battery and power systems for unmanned aerial systems, with closing expected in the third quarter 12. The strategy also includes investments in private drone companies made in early 2026 1.

    Segments

    B2B NDAA components

    The main segment is selling components to U.S. drone manufacturers and integrators, including motors, FPV headsets and other components made in Orlando 1. It became the dominant revenue source in 2025 and accounts for most of the growth in 2026 13.

    Direct-to-consumer retail

    The Rotor Riot brand, through its e-commerce platform, historically generated a significant share of revenue, but its weight has declined as B2B sales grew 1. The company is refining its retail offering, while management's focus has shifted toward enterprise customers 1.

    Market context

    The global drone market is estimated at about 57.8 billion USD by 2030, and segments such as accessories, flight controllers and motors are growing, according to reports cited by the company 1. Demand for domestic NDAA-compliant components has risen after federal policies restricting foreign-made drones, and the 1.1 billion USD Department of War Drone Dominance program could significantly expand the addressable market 13.

    The company describes the market as still in early stages, with defense customers and supply chain security requirements driving rapid demand 3. If government procurement materializes at scale, revenue could keep growing, though this depends on policy and production execution 3.

    Trends

    • Restrictions on foreign dronestailwind

      The ASDA and FCC rules of December 2025 limit foreign-made equipment, which could favor U.S. suppliers such as Unusual Machines 1. However, DJI is challenging these restrictions in court, and the outcome remains uncertain 1.

    • Defense drone procurementtailwind

      The Drone Dominance program and other Department of Defense initiatives aim for rapid purchases of drones and components from domestic sources, supporting demand for the company's products 13. Delays in implementation or budget changes could, however, postpone orders 3.

    Competitive position

    In the global drone market, SZ DJI Technology Co., Ltd. is the dominant manufacturer, likely accounting for most consumer and prosumer drone sales 1. In components, the company competes with T-Motor, Orqa, ModalAI and ARK Electronics on price, performance, availability and compliance 1.

    The company's advantage lies in U.S.-made components sold at competitive prices, compliant with the NDAA and the Blue UAS ecosystem, but larger competitors have substantially greater financial resources 1. If foreign suppliers obtain new certifications, this compliance advantage could erode 1.

    • SZ DJI Technology Co., Ltd.

      The global leader in consumer and prosumer drones, whose position is being challenged by recent U.S. regulations.

    • T-Motor

      Maker of motors and components for drones, a direct competitor in the components segment.

    • Orqa

      Supplier of FPV components and systems, competing in the drone components segment.

    • ARK Electronics

      Drone electronics supplier, competing in components that meet defense requirements.

    News & filings

    In the press

    SEC filings

    • Current report23 Oct 2026
      Material agreement · Acquisition or disposition of assets · Item 3.02 · Regulation FD disclosure · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Current report22 Oct 2026
      Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Current report07 Oct 2026
      Shareholder vote
    • Proxy statement24 Aug 2026
    • Current report12 Aug 2026
      Item 4.01 · Amendments to articles or bylaws · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Current report11 Aug 2026
      Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Quarterly report06 Aug 2026
    • Current report06 Aug 2026
      Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Current report28 Jul 2026
      Departure or appointment of officers
    • Current report25 Jun 2026
      Material agreement · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits

    Sources

    1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Unusual Machines, Inc. · 12 Mar 2026
    2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Unusual Machines, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
    3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Unusual Machines, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026

    Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.

    Unusual Machines, Inc. (UMAC): stock, results, valuation and forecast · olivLaw