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olivLaw · US equity research

James Hardie Industries plc JHX

Concrete Products, Except Block & Brick · SIC 3272 · Vertical: Stone, clay, glass and concrete (SIC 32xx)

28.66USD−2.91% · 1 dayClose 05 Nov 2026

James Hardie is a major provider of exterior home and outdoor living solutions, including fiber cement, composite and PVC products. After the AZEK acquisition in July 2025, sales grew sharply and the company raised its fiscal 2027 outlook. Net sales in the first quarter of fiscal 2027 were 1,475 million USD, up 64% from the prior year.

At the close of 05 Nov 2026, James Hardie Industries plc (JHX) stock was 28.66 USD (−2.91% on the day), with market capitalisation 16.6 bn USD, P/E 150.8 on diluted EPS of 0.19 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.00%, beta 1.30, 52-week range 16.69–31.08 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q1 2027): revenue of 1.5 bn USD (+63.9% YoY), net income of 104.3 m USD (+66.6% YoY), diluted EPS 0.18 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
16.6 bn USD
shares as of 31 Jul 2026
P/E (TTM)
150.8
Diluted EPS TTM 0.19 · TTM to 31 Mar 2026
E/P (TTM)
0.66%
TTM to 31 Mar 2026
Dividend yield
0.00%
DPS 12m 0.00
Beta (2y)
1.30
Volatility (1y) 45%
52-week range
16.6931.08

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
62.5
strong (55–70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
23.90 – 28.87
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.96 · band width 18.8%
SMA 50 / 200
26.86 / 24.44
uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
0.54 / 0.15
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+12.3%−1.1%+13.4 pp—
3 months+2.4%−0.5%+2.8 pp—
6 months+40.0%+4.4%+35.6 pp—
Year to date+38.1%+12.3%+25.8 pp—
1 year+54.9%+13.5%+41.4 pp−14.5%
3 years+6.6%+76.4%−69.8 pp+4.5%
5 years−30.0%+63.7%−93.7 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−32.4%
11 Feb 2026 → 30 Mar 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−60.3%
20 Sept 2024 → 14 Nov 2025
Compound annual growth (5y)
−6.9%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q1 2027 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
1.5 bn USD
+63.9% YoY
Net income
104.3 m USD
+66.6% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.18
+20.0% YoY
net / operating
7.1% / 14.8%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '16Q4 '17Q4 '18Q4 '20Q1 '26Q1 '27
Revenue————899.9 m1.5 bn
Cost of revenue————563.0 m925.9 m
Gross profit————336.9 m548.7 m
Research & development————12.1 m15.4 m
SG&A————156.1 m295.4 m
Operating income————138.6 m217.7 m
Depreciation & amortisation————56.5 m168.8 m
Interest expense————37.8 m61.5 m
Pre-tax income————89.7 m157.3 m
Income tax———-25.5 m27.1 m53.0 m
Net income————62.6 m104.3 m
Diluted EPS————0.150.18
Operating cash flow260.4 m292.1 m295.0 m—206.9 m344.0 m
Capex————103.2 m89.8 m

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 10-quarter history (min 18.8, median 27.4, max 99.7; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20192020202120222023202420252026
Revenue2.5 bn2.6 bn2.9 bn3.6 bn3.8 bn3.9 bn3.9 bn4.8 bn
Revenue YoY+22.0%+4.0%+11.6%+24.3%+4.5%+4.2%−1.5%+24.7%
Net income228.8 m241.5 m262.8 m459.1 m512.0 m510.2 m424.0 m104.0 m
Net income YoY+56.6%+5.6%+8.8%+74.7%+11.5%−0.4%−16.9%−75.5%
Diluted EPS0.520.540.591.031.151.160.980.19
Diluted EPS YoY+57.6%+3.8%+9.3%+74.6%+11.7%+0.9%−15.5%−80.6%
net %9.1%9.3%9.0%12.7%13.6%13.0%10.9%2.2%
Free cash flow-13.5 m257.4 m676.2 m499.4 m16.3 m464.9 m380.6 m205.9 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2026 · 31 Mar 2026

Cash
269.2 m USD
Financial debt
4.5 bn USD
Net debt
4.3 bn USD
Equity
6.4 bn USD
Total assets
13.7 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.71x
Current ratio
1.58x
ROE
2.4%
ROA
1.1%
FCF margin
4.3%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2024
3.9 bn
2025
3.9 bn
2026
4.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 May 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2024
2.3 bn
2025
2.4 bn
2026
3.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 May 2026verified

Gross profit
2024
1.6 bn
2025
1.5 bn
2026
1.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 May 2026verified

Research & development
2024
47.0 m
2025
48.5 m
2026
60.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 May 2026verified

SG&A
2024
602.2 m
2025
596.2 m
2026
946.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 May 2026verified

Operating income
2024
767.4 m
2025
655.9 m
2026
447.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 May 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2024
185.0 m
2025
216.2 m
2026
493.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 May 2026verified

EBITDA
2024
952.4 m ≈
2025
872.1 m ≈
2026
941.1 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 19 May 2026derived

Interest expense
2024
15.3 m
2025
10.3 m
2026
231.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 May 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2024
754.8 m
2025
645.4 m
2026
206.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 May 2026verified

Income tax
2024
244.6 m
2025
221.4 m
2026
102.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 May 2026verified

Net income
2024
510.2 m
2025
424.0 m
2026
104.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 May 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2024
1.16
2025
0.98
2026
0.19

SEC (XBRL)· 19 May 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2024
439.6 m
2025
432.1 m
2026
545.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 May 2026verified

Dividend per share
2024
0.00
2025
0.00
2026
—

SEC (XBRL)· 20 May 2025derived

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2024
365.0 m
2025
562.7 m
2026
269.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 May 2026verified

Inventories
2024
337.8 m
2025
347.1 m
2026
635.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 May 2026verified

Current assets
2024
1.4 bn
2025
1.7 bn
2026
1.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 May 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2024
2.0 bn
2025
2.2 bn
2026
3.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 May 2026verified

Goodwill
2024
192.6 m
2025
193.7 m
2026
4.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 May 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2024
149.2 m
2025
145.6 m
2026
3.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 May 2026verified

Total assets
2024
4.9 bn
2025
5.2 bn
2026
13.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 May 2026verified

Accounts payable
2024
463.3 m
2025
446.4 m
2026
712.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 May 2026verified

Short-term debt
2024
7.5 m
2025
9.4 m
2026
43.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 May 2026verified

Long-term debt
2024
1.1 bn
2025
1.1 bn
2026
4.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 May 2026verified

Current liabilities
2024
797.7 m
2025
810.2 m
2026
1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 May 2026verified

Total liabilities
2024
3.1 bn
2025
3.1 bn
2026
7.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 May 2026verified

Equity
2024
1.9 bn †
2025
2.2 bn †
2026
6.4 bn †

SEC (XBRL)· 19 May 2026verified

Shares outstanding at year end
2024
433.8 m
2025
429.8 m
2026
—

SEC (XBRL)· 20 May 2025verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2024
914.2 m
2025
802.8 m
2026
589.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 May 2026verified

Capex
2024
449.3 m
2025
422.2 m
2026
383.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 May 2026verified

Free cash flow
2024
464.9 m ≈
2025
380.6 m ≈
2026
205.9 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 19 May 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2024
-470.5 m
2025
-446.7 m
2026
-4.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 May 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2024
-210.1 m
2025
-165.9 m
2026
3.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 May 2026verified

Dividends paid
2024
0
2025
0
2026
—

SEC (XBRL)· 20 May 2025verified

Share repurchases
2024
271.4 m
2025
149.9 m
2026
0

SEC (XBRL)· 19 May 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
24.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Revenue CAGR 3Y
8.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2023 → FY 2026
Revenue CAGR 5Y
10.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2021 → FY 2026
EBIT growth (YoY)
-31.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Net income growth (YoY)
-75.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Net income CAGR 3Y
-41.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2023 → FY 2026
Net income CAGR 5Y
-16.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2021 → FY 2026
EPS growth (YoY)
-80.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
EPS CAGR 3Y
-45.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2023 → FY 2026
EPS CAGR 5Y
-20.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2021 → FY 2026
FCF growth (YoY)
-45.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2026

Profitability

Gross margin
35.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBITDA margin
20.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
9.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
2.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
6.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
3.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
1.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
2.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROCE
4.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
4.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
3.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Debt / equity
0.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Interest coverage
2.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
1.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash ratio
0.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
726.9 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
370.5 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
356.4 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
244.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion
64.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days inventory outstanding
64 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days payables outstanding
74 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
16.6 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
20.6 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
114.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
114.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Earnings yield
0.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
2.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
3.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
18.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBIT
39.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/Sales
3.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/FCF
46.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
FCF yield
2.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
0.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
0.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Unattractive profile

Score: 32 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

score < 40 · (margin_of_safety <= -0.25 & agreement in ['high', 'medium'])

Closing price

28.66 USD

05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 16.6 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
16.6 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
114.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
2.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
18.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROE
3.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
2.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
24.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Dividend yield
0.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Coverage and freshness

36/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2026
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 31 Jul 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 06 Aug 2026
verified 632derived 12

Score by group

  • Balance sheet30
  • Valuation18
  • Quality57
  • Growth36
  • Returns0

Estimated value range

Low
7.49
USD per share
Mid
11.09
USD per share
High
16.05
USD per share
Price: 28.66 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -61.3% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -158.4% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: medium · 3 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 3.95 – 17.36 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)7.49 – 17.36 (Mid 11.09)
    WACC 8.0% · starting FCFF 491.7 m USD · terminal value share of EV 77%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA11.66 – 16.05 (Mid 13.54)
    6 companies used · median multiple 10.5x · quartiles 9.5x – 11.7x
    AMRZ, APOG, CRH, OC, OI, TGLS
  • Peers: P/E3.95 – 4.83 (Mid 4.32)
    6 companies used · median multiple 17.2x · quartiles 15.8x – 19.2x
    AMRZ, APOG, CRH, EXP, SMID, TGLS
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Stone, clay, glass and concrete (SIC 32xx)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Unattractive profile · Score 32/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality2.7%44 (vs peers)11%
Net margin · Quality2.7%36 (vs peers)7%
FCF conversion · Quality244.6%100 (on a fixed band)7%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth8.6%72 (on a fixed band)9%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth-45.1%0 (on a fixed band)9%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet3.5x29 (vs peers)11%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet2.1x9 (on a fixed band)7%
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.6x65 (on a fixed band)4%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation114.2x14 (vs peers)11%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation18.2x14 (vs peers)11%
FCF yield · Valuation2.1%27 (on a fixed band)9%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns0.0%0 (on a fixed band)7%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet30/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth36/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality57/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation18/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES plc (JHX). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 4.8 bn USD in 2026; YoY growth 24.7%; net margin 2.7%; ROE 3.3%; net debt/EBITDA 3.5x.

The estimated value range is 7.49–16.05 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 11.09 USD, the price of 28.66 USD leaves a potential of -61.3% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -158.4% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 32/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • FCF conversion: 244.6%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 8.6%

What contradicts it

  • EPS CAGR 3Y: -45.1%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: 3.5x
  • Interest coverage: 2.1x
  • P/E (TTM): 114.2x
  • EV/EBITDA: 18.2x
  • FCF yield: 2.1%
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.0%
  • The price is above the estimated value range

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Stone, clay, glass and concrete (SIC 32xx) · same major group (2-digit SIC) · compared with 14 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
114.2x
vertical median 18.6x
above median (+515.1%)
EV/EBITDA
18.2x
vertical median 10.5x
above median (+72.8%)
P/S
3.1x
vertical median 1.8x
above median (+71.1%)
P/B
2.5x
vertical median 2.4x
at median
ROE
3.3%
vertical median 11.4%
below median (−71.0%)
Net margin
2.7%
vertical median 7.2%
below median (−62.7%)
EBIT margin
9.7%
vertical median 9.2%
above median (+5.7%)
Revenue YoY
24.7%
vertical median 2.3%
above median (+954.3%)
Net debt/EBITDA
3.5x
vertical median 1.9x
above median (+84.6%)
Dividend yield
0.0%
vertical median 0.7%
below median (−100.0%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
CXCemex Sab De Cv155.4 bn502.87.8%5.8%−2.1%−1% / +55%
CRHCRH public limited company65.7 bn18.614.8%9.2%+5.3%−18% / +57%
AMRZAmrize Ltd23.5 bn19.59.8%10.2%+0.9%−14% / unavailable
JHXJAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES plc16.6 bn114.23.3%2.7%+24.7%+55% / +7%
OCOwens Corning9.6 bn—-11.3%-4.4%+2.6%+10% / −8%
EXPEagle Materials Inc.5.8 bn15.724.5%16.1%+2.1%−15% / +5%
TGLSTecnoglass Holdings Inc.2.0 bn15.917.0%12.4%+10.5%−9% / +29%
APOGApogee Enterprises, Inc.959.5 m14.513.1%4.7%+3.2%+26% / +2%
OIO-I Glass, Inc.829.8 m—-119.2%-18.9%−1.6%−60% / −63%
RETOReTo Eco-Solutions, Inc.169.3 m—-48.3%-366.1%+84.3%−98% / −100%
SMIDSmith-Midland Corporation134.5 m22.014.5%8.6%+19.0%−27% / −17%
CPSHCps Technologies Corp.69.8 m—-0.1%-0.1%+54.3%+5% / +55%
CSTECaesarstone Ltd.44.3 m—-66.9%-34.6%−10.4%−15% / −68%
CPACHolcim Ltd——16.6%10.1%+1.4%+90% / +170%
LOMALoma Negra Compania Industrialargentina Sociedad Anonima——21.5%22.0%−23.9%−29% / +35%

1- and 3-year price returns: for JHX from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
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Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
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Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
17.64
Total return -38% · Per year -38%
31.12
Total return 9% · Per year 9%
46.80
Total return 63% · Per year 63%
3 years
18.55
Total return -35% · Per year -13%
36.69
Total return 28% · Per year 9%
60.37
Total return 111% · Per year 28%
5 years
19.51
Total return -32% · Per year -7%
43.26
Total return 51% · Per year 9%
77.89
Total return 172% · Per year 22%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 9.17
  • Net margin± 6.42
  • Annual revenue growth± 5.07
  • Annual dilution± 0.54

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

James Hardie is a major provider of exterior home and outdoor living solutions, including fiber cement, composite and PVC products. After the AZEK acquisition in July 2025, sales grew sharply and the company raised its fiscal 2027 outlook. Net sales in the first quarter of fiscal 2027 were 1,475 million USD, up 64% from the prior year 23.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The company has a strong brand position and a premium exterior product range supported by innovation and research 1.
  • Its large-scale manufacturing base and wide distribution network help it hold positions in many regions 1.
  • First-quarter fiscal 2027 results exceeded original guidance, showing solid execution 3.

Weaknesses

  • Dependence on residential construction makes results sensitive to the housing cycle and to interest rates 1.
  • Higher debt after the AZEK acquisition raised interest costs and weighed on net income 12.
  • A single supplier provides certain critical capped compounds for decking and railing, with no redundant source in place 1.

Opportunities

  • Integrating AZEK could bring revenue synergies through wider distribution and complete exterior offerings 13.
  • If the US housing market recovers, fiber cement volumes could return to growth 3.
  • Expanding Australian products toward whole-home solutions could open new sales categories 3.

Threats

  • A downturn in residential construction or higher interest rates could reduce demand across segments 1.
  • Tariffs and changes in trade policy could raise costs and affect margins 1.
  • Competitors with greater resources could cut prices and win customers from the company 1.

Risks

  • Dependence on the residential markethigh

    Demand relies heavily on new construction and renovation, which the company cannot control. A slowdown could reduce sales and operating income 1.

  • Important customersmedium

    A customer with a significant share of sales could reduce orders if it switches to competing products, and distribution contracts can be terminated on short notice 1.

  • Raw material costsmedium

    Prices of resins, cellulose and energy could rise without full pass-through to selling prices, which could hurt gross margin 13.

  • Trade policy and tariffsmedium

    Tariffs and changes in trade regulation could raise costs and require changes to operations 1.

  • Product liability and warrantieslow

    Quality problems or product claims could lead to recall costs and damage the brand if reserves prove insufficient 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If organic growth in fiber cement continues and AZEK synergies are realized, profitability could rise meaningfully from current levels 3.
  • The shift from wood to durable materials could support long-term demand, especially in decking and siding 1.
  • First-quarter results that beat original guidance suggest execution could support growth above expectations 3.

What would break the thesis

  • If the US housing market stays weak, volumes could remain under pressure and limit the benefits of integrating AZEK 3.
  • Higher debt and large interest costs could limit financial flexibility if profit does not grow enough 12.
  • Reliance on a few large customers and a single supplier for critical components could expose the company to unexpected disruption 1.

What to watch

  • Organic sales trend in Siding & Trim and US residential construction demandQ2 FY27
  • Progress of cost and revenue synergies after the AZEK integration2027
  • Delivery of the free cash flow target above 500 million USD for fiscal 20272027
  • Margin trend in Deck, Rail & Accessories as channel inventory normalizesnext 10-K

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

James Hardie Industries plc supplies exterior home and outdoor living solutions, is domiciled in Ireland and has main markets in the United States, Australia and Europe 1. Its portfolio includes fiber cement siding and trim, fiber gypsum interior products and composite and PVC decking and railing, sold under brands such as Hardie, TimberTech and fermacell 1. The strategy centers on material conversion, replacing wood and other less durable materials with high-performance products 1.

The company completed the acquisition of The AZEK Company Inc. on July 1, 2025, expanding its composite and PVC outdoor products with manufacturing and recycling facilities in the United States 1. Since then it has reported four segments: Siding & Trim, Deck, Rail & Accessories, Australia & New Zealand and Europe 12. It presents itself as focused on sustainability, with a circular strategy using recycled material 1.

The business depends largely on new residential construction and repair and remodel activity, factors the company says it cannot control 1. It noted that one customer accounted for approximately 11% of net sales in fiscal 2026, showing reliance on key distributors 1.

Segments

Siding & Trim

The segment manufactures fiber cement and PVC siding and trim in the United States, sold through distributors and specialty dealers. Net sales in the first quarter of fiscal 2027 were 859.8 million USD, with organic growth of 20% in North American fiber cement 3.

Deck, Rail & Accessories

The segment offers decking, railing, pergolas and accessories under the TimberTech brand, made in the United States. Net sales in the first quarter of fiscal 2027 were 305.1 million USD, and management reduced shipments to bring channel inventory to normal levels 3.

Australia & New Zealand

The segment sells fiber cement made in Australia, mainly into the residential market. Net sales in the first quarter of fiscal 2027 were 153.3 million USD, supported by volume growth and a favorable currency effect 3.

Market context

Demand depends on new home construction and renovation, markets that are cyclical and influenced by interest rates, employment and consumer confidence 1. The company said US activity remained weak, though shipments track home completions more closely than starts 3. In Europe, net sales in the first quarter of fiscal 2027 rose 15% in dollars to 156.4 million USD 3.

The market competes with wood, vinyl, stucco, masonry and other exterior materials, and material conversion from wood is the main growth driver the company cites 1. If housing demand recovered more strongly, volumes could benefit across segments, but the company does not assume such a recovery in its outlook 3.

Trends

  • Conversion from wood to durable materialstailwind

    Customers are shifting from wood and less durable materials to fiber cement, composite and PVC, which supports long-term growth 1. If this trend continues, it could support decking and siding sales 3.

  • Weak US residential constructionheadwind

    Forward indicators in the US housing market have stayed soft, and the company is not assuming a recovery 3. If weakness persists, fiber cement volumes could remain under pressure 1.

  • AZEK acquisition effects on marginsmixed

    Integrating AZEK brought significant amortization and acquisition costs that reduced reported operating margin, while adjusted EBITDA margin improved 13. Cost synergies are reported as ahead of schedule, but the net effect depends on execution 3.

  • Raw material and energy costsheadwind

    Resin, cellulose and transport costs can fluctuate, and geopolitical conflicts can raise transport and energy costs 13. The company reported that higher diesel prices increased freight costs in Europe 3.

Competitive position

In North America the company's products compete with wood, vinyl, engineered wood siding and other fiber cement producers, with competition based on price, performance, durability and distribution relationships 1. In Australia it competes with masonry, render and imported fiber cement, and in Europe with timber products and traditional plaster boards 1.

The company says it can increase share through marketing programs that educate distributors, builders and homeowners, but competition remains intense and larger rivals may have greater financial resources 1. The lack of long-term contracts with customers means that losing a key distributor could quickly affect sales 1.

  • Wood and wood product producers

    Wood makes up most decking sales and a significant share of siding, making it the main competitor 1.

  • Vinyl siding producers

    Vinyl competes directly with fiber cement and PVC siding, and the company says it has gained share against this material 13.

  • Other fiber cement producers

    Other fiber cement manufacturers compete with the company, some with a broader product range 1.

  • Composite and PVC decking producers

    Wood-alternative decking competitors operate in the same category as TimberTech, where the company says it holds a leading position 1.

News & filings

In the press

The latest news item in our archive is from 18 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 01 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

SEC filings

  • Current report01 Oct 2026
    Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report21 Aug 2026
    Item 3.03 · Amendments to articles or bylaws · Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report20 Aug 2026
    Material agreement · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report06 Aug 2026
  • Current report06 Aug 2026
    Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report23 Jul 2026
    Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Proxy statement01 Jul 2026
  • Current report26 Jun 2026
    Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report20 May 2026
    Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Annual report19 May 2026

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2026-03-31 · SEC / James Hardie Industries plc · 19 May 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / James Hardie Industries plc · 06 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / James Hardie Industries plc · 06 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.