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olivLaw · US equity research

Tecnoglass Holdings Inc. TGLS

Flat Glass · SIC 3211 · Vertical: Stone, clay, glass and concrete (SIC 32xx)

42.81USD+8.05% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Tecnoglass is a vertically integrated maker of aluminum and vinyl windows and architectural glass, with main operations in Colombia and sales concentrated in the United States. In the second quarter of 2026 it reported record revenues, but margins narrowed under pressure from aluminum costs, tariffs and the Colombian peso, and full-year guidance was revised. The topic matters for investors and for the US construction market, where financing conditions and tariffs can shift demand and profitability quickly.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Tecnoglass Holdings Inc. (TGLS) stock was 42.81 USD (+8.05% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.9 bn USD, P/E 15.1 on diluted EPS of 2.84 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.17%, beta 1.17, 52-week range 34.63–56.00 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 295.3 m USD (+15.6% YoY), net income of 24.6 m USD (−44.3% YoY), diluted EPS 0.55 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
1.9 bn USD
shares as of 03 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
15.1
Diluted EPS TTM 2.84 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
6.63%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
0.17%
DPS 12m 0.07
Beta (2y)
1.17
Volatility (1y) 42%
52-week range
34.6356.00

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
70.1
overbought (≥ 70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
35.93 – 40.87
above the upper band · %B 1.39 · band width 12.9%
SMA 50 / 200
37.73 / 42.98
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
0.77 / 0.34
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+22.6%−1.1%+23.7 pp—
3 months−10.3%−0.5%−9.9 pp—
6 months−2.8%+4.4%−7.2 pp—
Year to date−14.9%+12.3%−27.2 pp—
1 year−25.4%+13.5%−38.9 pp−5.1%
3 years+25.0%+76.4%−51.5 pp+6.4%
5 years+44.9%+63.7%−18.8 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−38.2%
05 Nov 2025 → 28 Sept 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−60.8%
06 Jun 2025 → 28 Sept 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
+7.7%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
295.3 m USD
+15.6% YoY
Net income
24.6 m USD
−44.3% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.55
−41.5% YoY
net / operating
8.3% / 12.4%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue238.3 m239.6 m222.3 m255.5 m260.5 m245.3 m249.0 m295.3 m
Cost of revenue129.1 m133.1 m124.8 m141.2 m149.2 m147.1 m153.2 m185.3 m
Gross profit109.2 m106.5 m97.5 m114.3 m111.3 m98.2 m95.8 m110.0 m
Operating income67.7 m67.2 m59.3 m61.2 m65.4 m44.8 m44.9 m36.5 m
Depreciation & amortisation6.9 m ≈6.7 m7.3 m9.1 m ≈10.0 m ≈10.3 m10.7 m10.7 m ≈
Interest expense-1.5 m10.3 m-1.0 m-1.1 m-1.9 m10.0 m-2.5 m-3.4 m
Pre-tax income69.5 m67.2 m59.8 m62.2 m68.0 m45.2 m43.8 m38.7 m
Income tax20.0 m20.2 m17.7 m18.1 m20.8 m19.1 m11.9 m14.1 m
Net income49.5 m47.0 m42.2 m44.1 m47.2 m26.1 m31.9 m24.6 m
Diluted EPS1.051.00 ≈0.900.941.010.57 ≈0.710.55
Operating cash flow41.5 m ≈61.1 m46.9 m17.9 m ≈40.0 m ≈31.0 m6.7 m4.4 m ≈
Capex23.7 m ≈25.7 m30.4 m32.5 m ≈18.8 m ≈19.6 m17.3 m35.4 m ≈
Dividends paid5.2 m ≈5.2 m7.0 m7.0 m ≈7.0 m ≈7.0 m6.7 m6.7 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 41 percentile of its own 37-quarter history (min 7.8, median 17.1, max 66.2; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue371.0 m430.9 m376.6 m496.8 m716.6 m833.3 m890.2 m983.6 m
Revenue YoY+18.0%+16.2%−12.6%+31.9%+44.2%+16.3%+6.8%+10.5%
Net income9.0 m24.5 m23.9 m68.2 m155.7 m182.9 m161.3 m159.6 m
Net income YoY+65.7%+171.7%−2.7%+185.4%+128.5%+17.4%−11.8%−1.1%
Diluted EPS0.210.550.511.433.273.853.433.42
Diluted EPS YoY+40.0%+161.9%−7.3%+180.4%+128.7%+17.7%−10.9%−0.3%
net %2.4%5.7%6.3%13.7%21.7%21.9%18.1%16.2%
Free cash flow-18.1 m712.0 k53.4 m65.7 m70.6 m60.9 m91.0 m34.5 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
100.9 m USD
Financial debt
171.6 m USD
Net debt
70.7 m USD
Equity
713.1 m USD
Total assets
1.3 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.24x
Current ratio
1.86x
ROE
23.7%
ROA
14.0%
FCF margin
3.5%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
833.3 m
2024
890.2 m
2025
983.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
442.3 m
2024
510.2 m
2025
562.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
390.9 m
2024
380.0 m
2025
421.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Operating income
2023
259.8 m
2024
227.0 m
2025
230.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
21.9 m
2024
26.5 m
2025
36.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
281.6 m ≈
2024
253.5 m ≈
2025
267.5 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
7.9 m
2024
6.2 m
2025
6.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
261.4 m
2024
225.2 m
2025
235.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Income tax
2023
77.9 m
2024
63.8 m
2025
75.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Net income
2023
182.9 m
2024
161.3 m
2025
159.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
3.85
2024
3.43
2025
3.42

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
47.5 m
2024
47.0 m
2025
46.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
129.5 m
2024
134.9 m
2025
100.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Receivables
2023
166.5 m
2024
202.9 m
2025
239.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Inventories
2023
159.1 m
2024
139.6 m
2025
213.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Current assets
2023
535.8 m
2024
560.0 m
2025
653.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
324.6 m
2024
344.4 m
2025
476.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
23.6 m
2024
23.6 m
2025
30.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
3.5 m
2024
4.4 m
2025
13.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Total assets
2023
962.7 m
2024
1.0 bn
2025
1.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
82.8 m
2024
98.8 m
2025
127.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
7.0 m
2024
1.1 m
2025
427.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
163.0 m
2024
108.2 m
2025
171.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
235.9 m
2024
265.8 m
2025
351.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
414.7 m
2024
385.5 m
2025
547.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Equity
2023
548.0 m
2024
631.2 m
2025
713.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
138.8 m
2024
170.5 m
2025
135.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Capex
2023
78.0 m
2024
79.6 m
2025
101.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
60.9 m ≈
2024
91.0 m ≈
2025
34.5 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-76.0 m
2024
-77.3 m
2025
-87.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-42.8 m
2024
-84.5 m
2025
-85.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
16.4 m
2024
19.7 m
2025
28.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
10.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
11.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
21.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
1.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
-1.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
0.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
46.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
-0.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
1.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
46.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
-62.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
39.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBITDA margin
22.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
18.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
12.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
-0.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
17.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
9.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
15.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROCE
18.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Balance sheet

Net debt
144.6 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
0.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Debt / equity
0.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Interest coverage
89.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
1.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash ratio
0.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
82.1 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
91.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
-8.9 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
-6.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion
35.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
90 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days inventory outstanding
129 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days payables outstanding
91 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion cycle
127 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
1.9 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
2.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
14.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
15.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Earnings yield
6.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
2.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
1.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
8.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBIT
10.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/Sales
1.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/FCF
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF yield
-0.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
0.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
1.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Attractive profile

Score: 68 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

score >= 65 · margin_of_safety >= 0.15 · agreement in ['high', 'medium']

Closing price

42.81 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 1.9 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
1.9 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
15.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
2.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
8.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROE
17.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
12.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
10.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
0.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Coverage and freshness

32/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 03 Aug 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 06 Aug 2026
verified 2154derived 155

Score by group

  • Valuation66
  • Returns21
  • Quality69
  • Balance sheet98
  • Growth51

Estimated value range

Low
46.69
USD per share
Mid
52.70
USD per share
High
55.28
USD per share
Price: 42.81 USD
The price is below the range
Potential to the central value: 23.1% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 18.8% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: medium · 3 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 0.94 – 72.40 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA51.55 – 72.40 (Mid 56.50)
    6 companies used · median multiple 11.4x · quartiles 10.4x – 14.4x
    AMRZ, APOG, CRH, JHX, OC, OI
  • Peers: P/E46.69 – 55.28 (Mid 52.70)
    5 companies used · median multiple 18.6x · quartiles 16.4x – 19.5x
    AMRZ, APOG, CRH, EXP, SMID
  • Dividend discount (DDM)0.94 – 1.26 (Mid 1.07)
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Stone, clay, glass and concrete (SIC 32xx)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Attractive profile · Score 68/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality15.5%100 (vs peers)11%
Net margin · Quality12.4%86 (vs peers)7%
FCF conversion · Quality-6.8%0 (on a fixed band)7%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth11.1%93 (on a fixed band)9%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth1.5%10 (on a fixed band)9%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet0.6x100 (vs peers)11%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet89.8x100 (on a fixed band)7%
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.9x88 (on a fixed band)4%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation15.1x100 (vs peers)11%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation8.8x86 (vs peers)11%
FCF yield · Valuation-0.5%0 (on a fixed band)9%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns1.4%21 (on a fixed band)7%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet98/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth51/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality69/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial21/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation66/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

TECNOGLASS HOLDINGS INC. (TGLS). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 983.6 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 10.5%; net margin 12.4%; ROE 17.0%; net debt/EBITDA 0.6x.

The estimated value range is 46.69–55.28 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 52.70 USD, the price of 42.81 USD leaves a potential of 23.1% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 18.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 68/100, methodological classification: attractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • ROIC: 15.5%
  • Net margin: 12.4%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 11.1%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: 0.6x
  • Interest coverage: 89.8x
  • Current ratio: 1.9x
  • P/E (TTM): 15.1x
  • EV/EBITDA: 8.8x
  • The price is below the estimated value range

What contradicts it

  • FCF conversion: -6.8%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: 1.5%
  • FCF yield: -0.5%
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 1.4%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Stone, clay, glass and concrete (SIC 32xx) · same major group (2-digit SIC) · compared with 14 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
15.1x
vertical median 19.5x
below median (−22.6%)
EV/EBITDA
8.8x
vertical median 12.2x
below median (−28.1%)
P/S
1.8x
vertical median 1.8x
at median
P/B
2.4x
vertical median 2.5x
at median
ROE
17.0%
vertical median 8.8%
above median (+93.4%)
Net margin
12.4%
vertical median 5.2%
above median (+135.9%)
EBIT margin
18.3%
vertical median 8.5%
above median (+115.8%)
Revenue YoY
10.5%
vertical median 2.3%
above median (+347.7%)
Net debt/EBITDA
0.6x
vertical median 1.9x
below median (−68.0%)
Dividend yield
0.2%
vertical median 0.7%
below median (−76.5%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
CXCemex Sab De Cv158.6 bn513.17.8%5.8%−2.1%+1% / +58%
CRHCRH public limited company65.7 bn18.614.8%9.2%+5.3%−18% / +57%
AMRZAmrize Ltd23.5 bn19.59.8%10.2%+0.9%−14% / unavailable
JHXJAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES plc17.1 bn117.63.3%2.7%+24.7%+49% / −8%
OCOwens Corning9.9 bn—-11.3%-4.4%+2.6%+13% / −6%
EXPEagle Materials Inc.6.0 bn16.424.5%16.1%+2.1%−11% / +9%
TGLSTecnoglass Holdings Inc.1.9 bn15.117.0%12.4%+10.5%−25% / +25%
APOGApogee Enterprises, Inc.1.0 bn15.213.1%4.7%+3.2%+32% / +6%
OIO-I Glass, Inc.843.6 m—-119.2%-18.9%−1.6%−59% / −63%
RETOReTo Eco-Solutions, Inc.172.7 m—-48.3%-366.1%+84.3%−98% / −100%
SMIDSmith-Midland Corporation130.9 m21.414.5%8.6%+19.0%−29% / −19%
CPSHCps Technologies Corp.74.6 m—-0.1%-0.1%+54.3%+12% / +65%
CSTECaesarstone Ltd.56.7 m—-66.9%-34.6%−10.4%+9% / −60%
LOMALoma Negra Compania Industrialargentina Sociedad Anonima——21.5%22.0%−23.9%−29% / +37%
CPACHolcim Ltd——16.6%10.1%+1.4%+90% / +170%

1- and 3-year price returns: for TGLS from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
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Base
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Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
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Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
27.81
Total return -35% · Per year -35%
49.01
Total return 14% · Per year 14%
73.62
Total return 72% · Per year 72%
3 years
30.71
Total return -28% · Per year -10%
60.54
Total return 41% · Per year 12%
99.30
Total return 132% · Per year 32%
5 years
33.91
Total return -21% · Per year -5%
74.77
Total return 75% · Per year 12%
133.93
Total return 213% · Per year 26%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 15.13
  • Net margin± 10.59
  • Annual revenue growth± 8.18
  • Annual dilution± 0.89

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

Tecnoglass is a vertically integrated maker of aluminum and vinyl windows and architectural glass, with main operations in Colombia and sales concentrated in the United States. In the second quarter of 2026 it reported record revenues, but margins narrowed under pressure from aluminum costs, tariffs and the Colombian peso, and full-year guidance was revised. The topic matters for investors and for the US construction market, where financing conditions and tariffs can shift demand and profitability quickly.

SWOT

Strengths

  • Vertical integration from raw materials to installation and low production costs in Colombia give the company a clear competitive position 1.
  • A record backlog and steady order growth indicate solid demand for the company's products 3.
  • A conservative balance sheet and high liquidity give the company flexibility for investment and dividends 3.

Weaknesses

  • Reliance on Florida and the US market as a whole means performance depends on a single economic environment 1.
  • Margins were compressed by aluminum costs, currency movements and tariffs, and annual guidance was lowered 3.
  • The company depends on a few suppliers for a significant share of raw materials, creating operational vulnerability 1.

Opportunities

  • Expansion beyond Florida, especially on the East Coast and in vinyl windows, could widen the customer base 13.
  • Automation and a potential US plant could lower costs and bring production closer to the market if completed 3.
  • Projected growth in window and nonresidential construction spending could support demand over the medium term 1.

Threats

  • Tariffs on aluminum imports could persist and weigh on competitiveness in the US 3.
  • Volatility in aluminum prices and the local currency could keep compressing margins 13.
  • Larger competitors with greater financial resources could cut prices and pressure profitability 1.

Risks

  • Price and competitive pressuremedium

    The markets in which the company operates are competitive, and price cuts could reduce margins and net income 1.

  • Raw material costshigh

    Swings in aluminum and other material prices can quickly affect costs, and passing them on to customers may be delayed 13.

  • Trade tariffshigh

    Section 232 tariffs generated significant expenses in the second quarter of 2026, and their full effect depends on trade policy developments 3.

  • Integration and investment riskmedium

    Acquisitions, the Vidrio Andino joint venture and capacity projects might not deliver expected benefits if execution slips or costs rise 1.

  • Dependence on construction activitymedium

    A slowdown in construction, driven by interest rates or economic conditions, could reduce orders and backlog 13.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • Record quarterly revenues, a growing backlog and an expanding market share could show that the integrated model works even under high costs 23.
  • If pricing actions and automation take effect in the second half of the year, margins could gradually recover toward earlier levels 3.
  • The US redomiciliation and a conservative balance sheet could broaden the investor base and provide flexibility for future investment 3.

What would break the thesis

  • Gross margins fell significantly year over year, and tariff costs could keep weighing on results 3.
  • Annual guidance was lowered, which could suggest cost pressure is more persistent than first expected 3.
  • Concentration on the US market and dependence on a few suppliers could amplify the effects of an economic or trade shock 1.

What to watch

  • Gross margin trajectory and the effect of pricing increases on resultsQ3 2026
  • Evolution of aluminum costs and Section 232 tariff impactQ3 2026
  • Delivery against full-year guidance for revenue and adjusted EBITDA2026
  • Decision on a possible new US facility and the status of incentives2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

Tecnoglass describes itself as a vertically integrated manufacturer, supplier and installer of high-end aluminum and vinyl windows and architectural glass, headquartered in Miami, Florida 1. Its main production sits in Barranquilla, Colombia, and it serves over 1,000 customers across North, Central and South America 1. The strategy rests on integration from raw material sourcing to installation, automation, and expansion in the US beyond Florida 12.

The company's stated structural advantage comes from low production costs in Colombia, shipping access to the US coast, and a 25.8% minority stake in Vidrio Andino that secures part of its raw glass supply 1. In April 2025 it acquired the assets of Continental Glass Systems, adding capacity and backlog in the Southeast US 1.

Effective July 2026 the company completed its redomiciliation from the Cayman Islands to the United States, is now incorporated in Florida, and continues to trade on the NYSE under TGLS 3. Management presents this change as simplifying its structure and broadening its potential investor base 3.

Segments

Colombian operations and regional exports

The main Barranquilla plant serves customers in Latin America and the Caribbean, and sales to Colombia and other Latin American destinations form a small fraction of the total 1. This segment is central to the company's low-cost advantage 1.

Market context

According to the FMI forecast cited in the annual report, spending on the US residential window and door market could grow at a 6.2% compound annual rate and total $340 billion over 2025 to 2029, with acceleration expected from 2027 1. Nonresidential building product spending could rise 22% over the same period 1.

The market is influenced by housing affordability, interest rates and tariff uncertainty, which weighed on the US residential market in 2025 1. The NRCI nonresidential index rose in the first quarter of 2026, suggesting better expectations for commercial construction 1.

Trends

  • Tariffs on aluminum importsheadwind

    Section 232 tariffs on finished aluminum products, applied from April 2026, generated substantial SG&A costs in the second quarter 3. If these tariffs persist, they could keep pressuring margins, although the company says it expects to offset the impact in 2027 through automation and pricing 3.

  • Aluminum pricesheadwind

    The average all-in US aluminum price, including the Midwest premium, rose sharply year over year and reduced the company's gross margin in the second quarter of 2026 3. Management expects May pricing actions to support results in the second half of the year 3.

  • Automation and efficiencytailwind

    The company invested nearly $230 million since 2023 in production technology and reduced headcount by 10% by the end of June 2026, with further automation planned by year end 13. These measures could improve costs and competitiveness over the longer term 3.

  • Demand from commercial constructionmixed

    The record backlog in the second quarter of 2026 and growth in multi-family and commercial projects point to solid demand, although execution pace and costs could change results 3. Expansion along the East Coast is supported by direct sea access 1.

Competitive position

The company says it operates in competitive markets against producers of varying size, some with greater financial resources 1. In the US it names competitors such as Viracon, PGT, Cardinal Glass and Oldcastle Glass, and in Colombia and Latin America Vitro and Vitelco 1.

The main advantage it claims over rivals is its production and distribution cost base, combined with vertical integration and the technical certifications required on complex projects, which limit new entrants 1. Price pressure could nonetheless reduce margins if competition becomes more aggressive 1.

  • Viracon (Apogee Enterprises)APOG

    A subsidiary within the Apogee Enterprises group, named by the company as a main US competitor in architectural glass.

  • PGTPGTI

    Window and door maker named by the company as a competitor in the United States.

  • Cardinal Glass

    Glass producer named by the company as a competitor in the United States.

  • Oldcastle Glass

    Glass supplier named by the company as a competitor in the United States.

News & filings

In the press

No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Tecnoglass Holdings Inc. · 02 Mar 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Tecnoglass Holdings Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Tecnoglass Holdings Inc. · 06 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.