olivLaw · US equity research
Sunrun Inc. RUN
Construction - Special Trade Contractors · SIC 1700 · Vertical: Construction - Special Trade Contractors (SIC 1700)
Sunrun is the largest US provider of residential battery storage and solar systems sold on a subscription model with no upfront cost to the customer. In 2026 it is shifting its focus toward storage and distributed power plant services, at a time when electricity demand is rising but its cash generation and financing costs are under pressure; Gross Earning Assets reached about 22.2 billion USD as of June 30, 2026, and quarterly revenue grew 53%.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Sunrun Inc. (RUN) stock was 8.79 USD (+1.27% on the day), with market capitalisation 2.1 bn USD, P/E 4.4 on diluted EPS of 1.98 USD over the last 12 months, beta 1.73, 52-week range 6.89–21.41 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 1.1 bn USD (+51.7% YoY), net income of 153.2 m USD (+823.8% YoY), diluted EPS 0.56 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 63.2
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 6.79 – 8.54
- above the upper band · %B 1.15 · band width 22.8%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 8.09 / 12.29
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.05 / -0.14
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +15.5% | −1.1% | +16.6 pp | — |
| 3 months | −16.2% | −0.5% | −15.8 pp | — |
| 6 months | −31.5% | +4.4% | −35.9 pp | — |
| Year to date | −52.2% | +12.3% | −64.5 pp | — |
| 1 year | −53.9% | +13.5% | −67.4 pp | −46.5% |
| 3 years | −18.9% | +76.4% | −95.3 pp | −8.3% |
| 5 years | −84.4% | +63.7% | −148.0 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 518.5 m | 504.3 m | 569.3 m | 724.6 m | 1.2 bn | 722.2 m | 870.0 m | 1.1 bn |
| Research & development | 8.8 m | 10.0 m | 8.1 m | 9.3 m | 8.8 m | 10.1 m | 10.2 m | 10.1 m |
| Operating income | -3.3 bn | -114.9 m | -112.2 m | 3.7 m | 97.4 m | -43.5 m | 34.8 m | 153.5 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | -414.4 m | 169.9 m | 189.7 m ≈ | 181.5 m ≈ | -502.8 m | 189.6 m | 192.8 m ≈ | 196.7 m ≈ |
| Pre-tax income | -3.4 bn | -387.7 m | -373.9 m | -280.0 m | -134.7 m | -290.3 m | -212.1 m | 41.8 m |
| Income tax | 136.0 k | -110.6 m | -94.9 m | -2.2 m | 40.4 m | 7.1 m | -4.0 m | -45.2 m |
| Net income | -2.8 bn | 50.0 m | 279.8 m | 16.6 m | 103.6 m | 167.6 m | 115.2 m | 153.2 m |
| Diluted EPS | -12.64 ≈ | 0.20 | 1.07 | 0.06 | 0.38 ≈ | 0.62 | 0.42 | 0.56 |
| Operating cash flow | -258.4 m | -104.2 m | -292.7 m ≈ | -121.5 m ≈ | 96.9 m | 10.6 m | -186.2 m ≈ | 301.4 m ≈ |
| Capex | 627.0 k | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 5 percentile of its own 21-quarter history (min 3.9, median 13.2, max 1,926.7; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 760.0 m | 858.6 m | 922.2 m | 1.6 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.0 bn | 3.0 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +42.7% | +13.0% | +7.4% | +74.6% | +44.2% | −2.7% | −9.8% | +45.1% |
| Net income | 26.7 m | 26.3 m | -173.4 m | -79.4 m | 173.4 m | -1.6 bn | -2.8 bn | 449.9 m |
| Net income YoY | −78.8% | −1.2% | −758.4% | unavailable | unavailable | −1,025.4% | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | 0.23 | 0.21 | -1.24 | -0.39 | 0.80 | -7.41 | -12.81 | 1.71 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −80.2% | −8.7% | −690.5% | unavailable | unavailable | −1,026.3% | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | 3.5% | 3.1% | -18.8% | -4.9% | 7.5% | -71.0% | -139.7% | 15.2% |
| Free cash flow | -67.4 m | -229.8 m | -321.1 m | -825.8 m | -867.0 m | -841.7 m | -767.7 m | unavailable |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 1.2 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 14.7 bn USD
- Net debt
- 13.5 bn USD
- Equity
- 4.3 bn USD
- Total assets
- 22.6 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 3.44x
- Current ratio
- 1.66x
- ROE
- 11.5%
- ROA
- 2.1%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 922.2 m | 1.6 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.0 bn | 3.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Research & development | 19.5 m | 23.2 m | 20.9 m | 21.8 m | 39.3 m | 36.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | -465.1 m | -666.2 m | -662.2 m | -2.0 bn | -3.7 bn | -126.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 20.0 m | 23.0 m | 27.2 m | 31.9 m | 44.1 m | 38.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | -445.1 m ≈ | -643.2 m ≈ | -635.0 m ≈ | -1.9 bn ≈ | -3.7 bn ≈ | -87.8 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived |
| Pre-tax income | -687.5 m | -971.3 m | -847.4 m | -2.7 bn | -4.4 bn | -1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | -60.6 m | 9.3 m | 2.3 m | -12.7 m | -26.8 m | -167.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | -173.4 m | -79.4 m | 173.4 m | -1.6 bn | -2.8 bn | 449.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -1.24 | -0.39 | 0.80 | -7.41 | -12.81 | 1.71 | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 139.6 m | 205.1 m | 219.2 m | 216.6 m | 222.2 m | 264.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 708.2 m | 850.4 m | 953.0 m | 987.8 m | 947.4 m | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 95.1 m | 146.0 m | 214.3 m | 172.0 m | 170.7 m | 262.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 283.0 m | 506.8 m | 783.9 m | 459.7 m | 402.1 m | 501.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 1.1 bn | 1.5 bn | 2.1 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.7 bn | 2.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 62.2 m | — | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2021verified |
| Goodwill | 4.3 bn | 4.3 bn | 4.3 bn | 3.1 bn | 0 | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 18.3 m | 12.9 m | 7.5 m | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Feb 2023verified |
| Total assets | 14.4 bn | 16.5 bn | 19.3 bn | 20.5 bn | 19.9 bn | 22.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 207.4 m | 288.1 m | 339.2 m | 230.7 m | 354.2 m | 271.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 4.8 bn | 6.5 bn | 8.4 bn | 10.7 bn | 12.9 bn | 14.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 901.4 m | 1.0 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 7.1 bn | 8.9 bn | 11.1 bn | 13.5 bn | 15.7 bn | 17.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 6.7 bn | 7.0 bn | 7.6 bn | 6.2 bn | 3.5 bn | 4.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -318.0 m | -817.2 m | -848.8 m | -820.7 m | -766.2 m | -421.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 3.1 m | 8.6 m | 18.2 m | 21.0 m | 1.6 m | — | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2025verified |
| Free cash flow | -321.1 m ≈ | -825.8 m ≈ | -867.0 m ≈ | -841.7 m ≈ | -767.7 m ≈ | — | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2025derived |
| Investing cash flow | -497.8 m | -1.7 bn | -2.1 bn | -2.6 bn | -2.7 bn | -2.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 1.2 bn | 2.6 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2022verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 54 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 2.1 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Quality60
- Growth85
- Valuation50
- Balance sheet17
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 37.21 – 63.79 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the input exists, but its latest figure is far older than the latest reported period: not used
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · not enough peers
- Peers: P/E37.21 – 63.79 (Mid 45.27)4 companies used · median multiple 22.8x · quartiles 18.8x – 32.2xAGX, BBCP, LMB, MSGY
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 54/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 1.1% | 43 (vs peers) | 15% |
| Net margin · Quality | 14.0% | 89 (vs peers) | 9% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 8.4% | 70 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 28.8% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 44.5x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.5x | 60 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 4.4x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 51.1x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet17/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth85/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality60/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation50/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Sunrun Inc. (RUN). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 3.0 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 45.1%; net margin 14.0%; ROE 16.2%; net debt/EBITDA 44.5x.
The estimated value range is 37.21–63.79 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 45.27 USD, the price of 8.79 USD leaves a potential of 415.1% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 80.6% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 54/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 14.0%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 8.4%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 28.8%
- P/E (TTM): 4.4x
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- Net debt / EBITDA: 44.5x
- EV/EBITDA: 51.1x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, Interest coverage, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Construction - Special Trade Contractors (SIC 1700) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 18 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGXArgan Inc | 4.1 bn | 23.0 | 39.8% | 15.1% | +8.1% | −26% / +523% |
| BBUCBrookfield Business Corporation | 2.7 bn | — | 2.4% | 1.4% | −32.4% | −11% / +70% |
| RUNSunrun Inc. | 2.1 bn | 4.4 | 16.2% | 14.0% | +45.1% | −54% / −19% |
| LMBLimbach Holdings, Inc. | 681.6 m | 22.7 | 16.0% | 4.2% | +24.7% | −18% / +52% |
| BBCPConcrete Pumping Holdings, Inc. | 510.5 m | 59.8 | 3.9% | 2.4% | −7.7% | +61% / +36% |
| PHOEPhoenix Asia Holdings Limited | 401.7 m | — | -25.9% | -16.7% | −2.2% | +32% / unavailable |
| MTRXMatrix Service Company | 258.3 m | — | -1.8% | -0.3% | +13.6% | −22% / −8% |
| MSGYMasonglory Limited | 66.8 m | 7.0 | -135.4% | -34.0% | +1.0% | −82% / unavailable |
| SPWRSunpower Inc. | 50.5 m | — | — | -3.8% | +175.9% | −86% / −79% |
| FGLFounder Group Limited | 24.7 m | — | -31.9% | -5.6% | unavailable | −100% / unavailable |
| SMXTSolarMax Technology, Inc. | 19.5 m | — | — | -7.9% | +295.8% | −63% / unavailable |
| PMAMing Shing Group Holdings Limited | 16.9 m | — | — | -39.4% | −56.8% | −23% / unavailable |
| WXMWF International Limited | 14.4 m | — | -71.9% | -24.5% | −13.7% | −62% / unavailable |
| CETXCemtrex, Inc. | 1.7 m | — | -152.4% | -38.4% | +14.4% | −97% / −100% |
| AMRCAmeresco, Inc. | — | — | 5.5% | 3.3% | +28.8% | −39% / −29% |
| LGNLegence Corp. | — | — | -7.5% | -1.2% | +21.5% | −30% / unavailable |
| ZEOZeo Energy Corp. | 0 | — | — | -15.4% | −5.3% | −83% / −98% |
| KAZRSkyline Builders Group Holding Limited | — | — | 20.6% | 18.1% | +8.9% | −54% / unavailable |
| PBKPOWERBANK Corp | — | — | -174.4% | -74.7% | −28.9% | −90% / unavailable |
1- and 3-year price returns: for RUN from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 6.08 Total return -31% · Per year -31% | 10.72 Total return 22% · Per year 22% | 16.12 Total return 83% · Per year 83% |
| 3 years | 6.37 Total return -28% · Per year -10% | 12.60 Total return 43% · Per year 13% | 20.73 Total return 136% · Per year 33% |
| 5 years | 6.67 Total return -24% · Per year -5% | 14.80 Total return 68% · Per year 11% | 26.66 Total return 203% · Per year 25% |
- Exit P/E± 3.15
- Net margin± 2.20
- Annual revenue growth± 1.74
- Annual dilution± 0.19
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (04 Nov 2026).
In brief
Sunrun is the largest US provider of residential battery storage and solar systems sold on a subscription model with no upfront cost to the customer. In 2026 it is shifting its focus toward storage and distributed power plant services, at a time when electricity demand is rising but its cash generation and financing costs are under pressure; Gross Earning Assets reached about 22.2 billion USD as of June 30, 2026 2, and quarterly revenue grew 53% 3.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company presents itself as the largest operator of a residential fleet and has a varied set of sales channels supporting capital-efficient growth 1.
- Access to low-cost financing through tax equity funds and non-recourse debt is a central part of the business model 1.
- A high storage attachment rate and recognition for customer experience are assets the company uses in its market communication 3.
Weaknesses
- Dependence on one state, California, for a large part of customers makes the company sensitive to policy changes there 1.
- New subscriber additions and net subscriber value per customer fell in 2026 versus the prior year, while operating expenses grew faster than revenue 3.
- The model relies on external financing that is sensitive to interest rates, making the cost of capital volatile 12.
Opportunities
- If demand for electricity from data centers and artificial intelligence keeps growing, the home battery fleet could be monetized through grid services 13.
- Home electrification projects, such as chargers for electric vehicles, could extend the offer to existing customers 1.
- Successful securitizations in the capital markets could lower financing costs if market conditions stay favorable 3.
Threats
- Changes in tax policy and the removal of solar credits could reduce the attractiveness of the offer for customers 1.
- Trade tariffs and legal uncertainty over imported components could raise installation costs or delay projects 12.
- Competitors with aggressive pricing and externally financed firms could pressure the company's margins and volumes 1.
Risks
- Federal tax policyhigh
The July 2025 legislation narrowed solar credits and ended the residential credit from 2026, which could reduce demand and complicate the monetization of tax benefits 1.
- Dependence on Californiahigh
Changes to California's net billing regime have reduced the appeal of the solar offer, and new installations in that state could continue to decline 12.
- Cost of financingmedium
The model depends on external capital sensitive to interest rates; higher rates could raise the cost of capital and reduce the funds available for new projects 2.
- Tariffs and supply chainmedium
Tariffs on solar modules, batteries and components could raise costs and delay installations, affecting the timing of revenue 12.
- Execution of new projectslow
Pilot projects and letters of intent with data center and grid partners are not firm commitments; if they do not turn into contracts, the revenue potential could remain unrealized 3.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If storage attachment keeps rising and demand for distributed energy for data centers materializes, the company could turn its existing fleet into a source of grid services revenue 13.
- The customer fleet and the volume of revenue-generating assets are large and growing, which could support predictable long-term cash flows 12.
- If the expanded sales force reaches full productivity, the company says it could exit the year with a robust growth rate and better unit margins 3.
What would break the thesis
- If tax and policy changes in California keep reducing new installations, revenue and new subscriptions could remain under pressure 12.
- The recent drop in the value of new subscriptions and cash figures could show that the model is becoming more expensive to finance 3.
- If tariffs and capital costs stay high, margins could be eroded and aggressive price competition could continue 13.
What to watch
- Delivery against the 2026 cash generation guidance (200 to 375 million USD, excluding equipment safe harbor investments)Q4 2026
- Trend in new subscriber additions and the storage attachment rateQ3 2026
- Status of the letter of intent with Renew Home and Tesla and of the data center pilot2027
- Effect of the ended residential credit and the limited 48E credit on demand and financing costsnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (04 Nov 2026).
The business
Sunrun designs, installs, owns and maintains residential energy systems in the United States, selling the energy to customers under leases or power purchase agreements (Customer Agreements), typically for 20 or 25 years, with no upfront investment 1. The company presents itself as the country's largest operator of a residential fleet, with 8,404 MW of Networked Solar Energy Capacity at December 31, 2025 1, rising to 8,732 MW by June 30, 2026 2.
Its distribution model has three channels: direct-to-consumer sales, energy system partners (integrators, sales and installation partners), and strategic partnerships with retail and consumer companies 1. Financing relies on tax equity funds, non-recourse debt and project equity structures, through which the company monetizes customer cash flows and tax benefits 1.
In 2026 Sunrun describes its model as storage-first, shifting emphasis from solar panels toward batteries and grid services. The company frames its goal as becoming a home-to-grid power plant that can provide demand response and capacity to grid operators 13.
Segments
Solar and storage subscriptions (Customer Agreements)
This is the core of the business: customers pay monthly for the energy produced, while the company operates, monitors and insures the system. Revenue from customer agreements and incentives grew 19% in Q2 2026 versus Q2 2025 3.
Energy system and product sales
Covers sales of systems to customers who pay in full and sales of systems to third-party investors under newly originated contracts. This line rose sharply in 2026, mainly due to a sale transaction to a third party entered into in the third quarter of 2025 3.
Grid services and distributed power plants
Sunrun is developing demand response and capacity programs for grid operators based on batteries installed in homes. In 2026 it announced a non-binding letter of intent with Renew Home and Tesla and a pilot for distributed AI data center compute 3.
Market context
Sunrun describes the US residential solar and storage market as still early, with low penetration of subscription-based services 1. Electricity demand is growing because of data centers, artificial intelligence and electrification, which the company says creates opportunities for distributed resources 1.
The market depends heavily on public policy: federal legislation signed in July 2025 (OBBB) reduced tax support for solar after 2027 and ended the residential credit from 2026, while California, which accounts for over 45% of its customers, changed its net metering regime 1. These changes could alter the attractiveness of the offer and the volume of new installations.
Trends
- Shift to energy storagetailwind
Customers increasingly choose batteries alongside panels. The storage attachment rate reached 74% in Q2 2026 3, and Sunrun sees this segment as the main driver of medium-term growth 3.
- Rising electricity demand and data centerstailwind
Growing demand from data centers and artificial intelligence could open markets for distributed energy and grid services. The company is already working on pilot projects in this direction 13.
- Federal and state tax and policy frameworkheadwind
Ending the residential credit in 2026 and limiting the 48E credit for solar after 2027 could raise the cost of the offer or reduce demand. California's net billing regime has also reduced the appeal of solar-only systems 12.
- Cost of capital and equipment tariffsmixed
High interest rates raise financing costs, and tariffs on imported modules and components could increase installation costs. The company lowered its 2026 cash generation outlook partly because of higher capital costs than previously forecast 23.
Competitive position
The main competitors are traditional utilities that supply electricity to prospective customers, and the company competes with them mainly on price and predictability of rates 1. Competition also comes from unregulated companies using utility infrastructure, solar companies with similar business models and other renewable energy firms 1.
Sunrun also names finance-driven firms that acquire customers and subcontract installation, as well as large construction companies, utilities and electrical and roofing firms 1. The company says new entrants have been paying turnkey prices and sales commissions well above industry norms 1.
- Traditional utilities
Principal declared competitor supplying conventional energy; the company compares its price and rate predictability with theirs.
- Solar companies with similar models
Solar firms offering residential subscription or lease solutions that compete directly for the same customer segment.
- Finance-driven firms and installation integrators
Companies focused on customer acquisition and subcontracted installation, as well as electrical and roofing installers.
- Renewable energy providers and community programs
Renewable energy companies and community subscription programs that may attract customers who would not install a system on their home.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Why Sunrun’s (RUN) Virtual Power Plant Strategy Changes Everything For Its ValuationYahoo Finance — News · 23 Sept 2026 · EN
- Enphase Energy Drops 5% as Solar Selling Resumes; First Solar and Sunrun Fall 4%Yahoo Finance — News · 18 Sept 2026 · EN
- First Solar Retreats 5% After Dropping ITC Patent Case It Calls Procedural; Enphase Energy Slips, Sunrun Holds SteadyYahoo Finance — News · 16 Sept 2026 · EN
- Sunrun Surges Over 30% on Tesla Deal to Supply Power for AIBloomberg Markets · 24 Jun 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 23 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 04 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report04 Nov 2026
- Current report04 Nov 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report05 Aug 2026
- Current report05 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report01 Jun 2026Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report06 May 2026
- Current report06 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement15 Apr 2026
- Annual report26 Feb 2026
- Current report26 Feb 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Sunrun Inc. · 26 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Sunrun Inc. · 05 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Sunrun Inc. · 05 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.