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olivLaw · US equity research

Zeo Energy Corp. ZEO

Construction - Special Trade Contractors · SIC 1700 · Vertical: Construction - Special Trade Contractors (SIC 1700)

0.25USD−1.06% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Zeo Energy Corp. is a vertically integrated company that sells, designs, installs and maintains residential solar systems across several US states, with added roofing and efficiency services. The company reported net revenues of 69.3 million USD in 2025 and a negative adjusted EBITDA margin, while the current residential solar market keeps its results under pressure.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Zeo Energy Corp. (ZEO) stock was 0.25 USD (−1.06% on the day), with market capitalisation 0 USD, beta 1.02, 52-week range 0.21–1.57 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 16.2 m USD (−10.7% YoY), net income of -2.3 m USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
0 USD
shares as of 30 Sept 2021
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
Diluted EPS TTM -0.57 · TTM to 31 Mar 2025
E/P (TTM)
-225.67%
TTM to 31 Mar 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
1.02
Volatility (1y) 117%
52-week range
0.211.57

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
43.5
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
0.24 – 0.28
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.32 · band width 16.6%
SMA 50 / 200
0.28 / 0.66
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.02 / -0.02
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−11.8%−1.1%−10.7 pp—
3 months−56.5%−0.5%−56.0 pp—
6 months−73.8%+4.4%−78.2 pp—
Year to date−76.9%+12.3%−89.2 pp—
1 year−83.2%+13.5%−96.7 pp−46.5%
3 years−97.8%+76.4%−174.2 pp−8.3%
5 yearsunavailable+63.7%unavailable—
Max drawdown (1y)
−86.6%
10 Nov 2025 → 01 Sept 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−98.2%
29 Feb 2024 → 01 Sept 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
unavailable
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
16.2 m USD
−10.7% YoY
Net income
-2.3 m USD
unavailable YoY
Diluted EPS
unavailable
unavailable YoY
net / operating
-14.4% / -18.5%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue19.7 m18.6 m8.8 m18.1 m23.9 m18.6 m13.2 m16.2 m
Cost of revenue9.8 m4.9 m4.8 m7.3 m10.1 m8.9 m7.6 m8.5 m
Operating income-3.0 m-1.1 m-13.5 m-2.9 m-2.0 m-2.2 m-4.8 m-3.0 m
Depreciation & amortisation499.9 k-1.3 m34.1 k34.1 k249.4 k-8.2 m34.1 k34.1 k
Interest expense209.2 k39.3 k30.3 k-30.0 k129.7 k25.5 k10.9 k32.4 k
Pre-tax income-2.9 m-1.9 m-12.8 m-2.9 m-1.8 m-1.9 m-4.8 m-2.7 m
Income tax-44.1 k-728.4 k523.5 k-187.0 k48.8 k-121.6 k-92.1 k96.8 k
Net income-424.3 k-435.3 k-6.4 m-2.4 m-3.2 m-2.0 m-3.5 m-2.3 m
Diluted EPS-0.08-0.04 ≈-0.48—————
Operating cash flow162.2 k ≈3.5 m-2.3 m-2.3 m ≈-6.6 m ≈2.4 m-852.8 k-461.4 k ≈
Capex-45.8 k ≈84.1 k372.6 k434.4 k ≈240.6 k ≈175.7 k205.3 k201.0 k ≈
Dividends paid—————0160.2 k0 ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Fiscal years

Fiscal year2022202320242025
Revenueunavailable109.7 m73.2 m69.3 m
Revenue YoYunavailableunavailable−33.2%−5.3%
Net income14.3 m-3.0 m-2.7 m-14.0 m
Net income YoYunavailable−120.9%unavailableunavailable
Diluted EPSunavailable4.85-0.48unavailable
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailable−109.9%unavailable
net %unavailable-2.7%-3.6%-20.2%
Free cash flowunavailable10.9 m-9.1 m-9.9 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
6.1 m USD
Financial debt
10.0 m USD
Net debt
3.9 m USD
Equity
5.3 m USD
Total assets
56.9 m USD
Debt / equity
1.88x
Current ratio
2.69x
ROE
unavailable
ROA
-23.8%
FCF margin
-14.3%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
109.7 m
2024
73.2 m
2025
69.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
119.8 k
2024
38.1 m
2025
31.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
109.6 m ≈
2024
35.2 m ≈
2025
38.3 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026derived

SG&A
2023
120.0 k
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Mar 2024verified

Operating income
2023
5.1 m
2024
-10.8 m
2025
-20.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
1.8 m
2024
136.5 k
2025
136.5 k

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
7.0 m ≈
2024
-10.7 m ≈
2025
-20.4 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
110.9 k
2024
333.5 k
2025
155.5 k

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
4.8 m
2024
-10.8 m
2025
-19.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Income tax
2023
—
2024
-963.8 k
2025
263.6 k

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Net income
2023
-3.0 m
2024
-2.7 m
2025
-14.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
4.85
2024
-0.48
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 28 May 2025verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
1.0 m
2024
5.5 m
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 28 May 2025verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
8.0 m
2024
5.6 m
2025
6.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Receivables
2023
2.9 m
2024
9.0 m
2025
8.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Inventories
2023
350.4 k
2024
872.5 k
2025
852.2 k

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Current assets
2023
16.2 m
2024
18.9 m
2025
22.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
2.3 m
2024
2.5 m
2025
2.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
27.0 m
2024
27.0 m
2025
27.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
771.0 k
2024
7.6 m
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 28 May 2025verified

Total assets
2023
48.1 m
2024
61.0 m
2025
56.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
4.7 m
2024
2.8 m
2025
3.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
—
2024
3.5 m
2025
10.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
—
2024
496.6 k
2025
55.6 k

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
15.5 m
2024
15.0 m
2025
8.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
17.5 m
2024
18.1 m
2025
9.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Equity
2023
30.6 m
2024
-88.9 m
2025
5.3 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
12.0 m
2024
-8.7 m
2025
-8.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Capex
2023
1.0 m
2024
369.1 k
2025
1.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
10.9 m ≈
2024
-9.1 m ≈
2025
-9.9 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-1.0 m
2024
-7.4 m
2025
13.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-5.2 m
2024
13.7 m
2025
-4.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
—
2024
139.1 k
2025
621.1 k

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
272.6 m
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Mar 2024verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
-5.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
unavailable
input data missing
Revenue CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
EPS growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
input data missing
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Profitability

Gross margin
51.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBITDA margin
-5.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
-16.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
-15.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
-8.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
ROA
-21.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
unavailable
insufficient data
ROCE
-27.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Balance sheet

Net debt
-2.4 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
insufficient data
Debt / equity
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Interest coverage
-60.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
1.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash ratio
0.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
-5.5 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
822.7 k USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
-6.3 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
unavailable
insufficient data
Cash conversion
unavailable
insufficient data

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
39 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days inventory outstanding
9 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days payables outstanding
51 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion cycle
-3 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
0 USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
-2.4 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
unavailable
insufficient data
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
Earnings yield
unavailable
insufficient data
P/B
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
0.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
insufficient data
EV/EBIT
unavailable
insufficient data
EV/Sales
-0.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/FCF
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF yield
unavailable
insufficient data
Dividend yield
unavailable
input data missing
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
insufficient data

Risk

Altman Z
-0.68
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • indicators available: 3 of at least 6
  • score weight coverage: 16.7% of at least 60%
  • valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

0.25 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 0 USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
0 USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
P/B
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
insufficient data
ROE
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
Net margin
-15.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
-5.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
input data missing

Coverage and freshness

34/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 30 Sept 2021
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 14 Aug 2026
verified 518derived 42

Score by group

17% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

unavailable — no valuation method could be computed

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · insufficient data
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · input data missing

no valuation method could be computed

Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Construction - Special Trade Contractors (SIC 1700)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 16.7% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality-15.4%33 (vs peers)38%
FCF conversion · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheet-60.1x0 (on a fixed band)38%
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.6x63 (on a fixed band)25%
P/E (TTM) · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet25/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Quality· partial33/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

Zeo Energy Corp. (ZEO). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 69.3 m USD in 2025; YoY growth -5.3%; net margin -15.4%.

Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.

Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 16.7% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.

What contradicts it

  • Interest coverage: -60.1x

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Construction - Special Trade Contractors (SIC 1700) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 18 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
—
vertical median 22.7x
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 10.8x
P/S
0.0x
vertical median 1.0x
below median (−100.0%)
P/B
0.0x
vertical median 3.0x
below median (−100.0%)
ROE
—
vertical median -1.8%
Net margin
-15.4%
vertical median -2.5%
below median
EBIT margin
-16.6%
vertical median -8.9%
below median
Revenue YoY
-5.3%
vertical median 8.9%
below median (−159.6%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 0.1x
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 0.7%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
AGXArgan Inc4.1 bn23.039.8%15.1%+8.1%−26% / +523%
BBUCBrookfield Business Corporation2.7 bn—2.4%1.4%−32.4%−11% / +70%
RUNSunrun Inc.2.1 bn4.416.2%14.0%+45.1%−57% / −32%
LMBLimbach Holdings, Inc.681.6 m22.716.0%4.2%+24.7%−18% / +52%
BBCPConcrete Pumping Holdings, Inc.510.5 m59.83.9%2.4%−7.7%+61% / +36%
PHOEPhoenix Asia Holdings Limited401.7 m—-25.9%-16.7%−2.2%+32% / unavailable
MTRXMatrix Service Company258.3 m—-1.8%-0.3%+13.6%−22% / −8%
MSGYMasonglory Limited66.8 m7.0-135.4%-34.0%+1.0%−82% / unavailable
SPWRSunpower Inc.50.5 m——-3.8%+175.9%−86% / −79%
FGLFounder Group Limited24.7 m—-31.9%-5.6%unavailable−100% / unavailable
SMXTSolarMax Technology, Inc.19.5 m——-7.9%+295.8%−63% / unavailable
PMAMing Shing Group Holdings Limited16.9 m——-39.4%−56.8%−23% / unavailable
WXMWF International Limited14.4 m—-71.9%-24.5%−13.7%−62% / unavailable
CETXCemtrex, Inc.1.7 m—-152.4%-38.4%+14.4%−97% / −100%
ZEOZeo Energy Corp.0——-15.4%−5.3%−83% / −98%
LGNLegence Corp.——-7.5%-1.2%+21.5%−30% / unavailable
KAZRSkyline Builders Group Holding Limited——20.6%18.1%+8.9%−54% / unavailable
PBKPOWERBANK Corp——-174.4%-74.7%−28.9%−90% / unavailable
AMRCAmeresco, Inc.——5.5%3.3%+28.8%−39% / −29%

1- and 3-year price returns: for ZEO from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
input data missing
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
input data missing
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
input data missing
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
3 years
input data missing
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
input data missing
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
input data missing
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
5 years
input data missing
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
input data missing
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
input data missing
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
What moves the 3-year price the most

    AI analysis

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    In brief

    Zeo Energy Corp. is a vertically integrated company that sells, designs, installs and maintains residential solar systems across several US states, with added roofing and efficiency services. The company reported net revenues of 69.3 million USD in 2025 and a negative adjusted EBITDA margin, while the current residential solar market keeps its results under pressure. 1

    SWOT

    Strengths

    • Vertically integrated model covering sales, design, installation and maintenance. Internal sales force with lower acquisition costs than external dealers.
    • Scalable regional platform with proprietary processes and software for sales teams. Capital-light model that limits the need for inventory.
    • Diversification through the acquisition of a concentrated solar and storage division serving commercial customers.

    Weaknesses

    • Net losses and a negative adjusted EBITDA margin in 2025, after a better 2024. Dependence on seasonal sales limits revenue stability.
    • Reliance on one main distributor for a significant part of equipment. The number of active dealers fell from the prior year.
    • Funding relies on costly and dilutive instruments such as equity lines and convertible notes.

    Opportunities

    • Expansion into new states and commercial segments could diversify revenue. Growing demand for battery storage could support new sales.
    • If interest rates fall, customer financing could become easier and could boost direct sales.
    • Integrating Heliogen could open projects for data centers and industrial energy applications.

    Threats

    • A reduction in government support for solar could cut demand and access to external financing.
    • Competition from utilities and supply-only providers could limit growth in new customers.
    • Utility tariff changes, such as time-of-use rates, could reduce the appeal of solar systems.

    Risks

    • Dependence on public policyhigh

      Demand depends on rebates, tax credits and other incentives. If these are reduced, sales and financing could be significantly affected.

    • Losses and negative marginshigh

      The company reported net losses and a negative adjusted EBITDA margin in 2025. If sales remain seasonal, quarterly results could fluctuate sharply.

    • Shareholder dilutionhigh

      Equity lines and convertible notes can mean issuing new shares at prices that may be below current levels. This could reduce the stake of existing shareholders.

    • Dependence on a main suppliermedium

      One distributor supplies a significant part of installed equipment. An interruption could delay projects, although the sources indicate other suppliers could be found.

    • Related-party leasing conflictmedium

      Some leasing customers are placed with entities linked to management. This could raise questions about contract terms.

    Investment thesis

    What would need to be true (bull case)

    • If interest rates fall and demand for energy independence grows, seasonal sales could recover and gross margin could remain stable.
    • The integrated model and internal sales network may offer a cost advantage in expanding regional markets.
    • Diversification through the Heliogen division could open revenue from commercial customers and data centers.

    What would break the thesis

    • If government support shrinks, demand for residential systems could fall and external financing could become more expensive.
    • Net losses and a negative adjusted EBITDA margin could force the company to keep issuing shares, with a dilutive effect.
    • Competition from utilities and retail providers could limit growth, especially if tariffs change.

    What to watch

    • Revenue and adjusted EBITDA margin trends through the summer sales seasonQ3 2026
    • Heliogen integration and its contribution to revenue2027
    • Changes in federal and state solar policy2027

    Products, market & competition

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    The business

    Zeo Energy aims to accelerate the US transition to renewable energy by offering customers an affordable path to energy independence. Its main activity is selling and installing residential solar systems, along with insulation, hybrid water heaters, storage systems and roofing services through the subsidiary Sunergy Roofing & Construction. 1

    The company was formed through the combination of Sunergy Solar and Sun First Energy, and its March 2024 business combination with a SPAC led to the name change to Zeo Energy Corp. Most customers are in Florida, Texas, Arkansas, Missouri, Ohio and Illinois, with an expanding base in California, Colorado, Minnesota, Utah and Virginia. 1

    The sales model combines an internal force of agents with a small number of external dealers, and many contracts are financed through loans or third-party leasing. In August 2025 the Heliogen acquisition added a division for concentrated solar power and long-duration storage for commercial and industrial customers. 12

    Segments

    Residential solar systems

    The core segment installs home solar systems sold directly or leased. Most systems installed in 2025 were leased by customers, and the internal sales team generated most of the contracts. 1

    Related services and roofing

    The company offers insulation, efficient equipment, battery storage and roofing work, mainly in Florida. These services complement solar sales and can speed up installations. 1

    Heliogen (concentrated solar power)

    The division acquired in August 2025 develops concentrated solar and storage technologies for commercial and industrial customers. It is a newer segment, and the sources give few separate figures for it. 2

    Market context

    The residential solar market is described in the filing as emerging and constantly evolving, and demand depends on interest rates, electricity prices and government support through rebates and tax credits. Seasonality is strong, with sales concentrated in summer, which deepened the declines seen in the first quarter of 2025. 13

    The company operates in a highly competitive environment where electric utilities have far greater resources, and retail providers offering supply-only solutions can compete on price. Long-term growth in new markets and commercial services will depend on the company's ability to adapt its model. 1

    Trends

    • High interest ratesheadwind

      The high-rate environment made direct residential solar sales harder, according to the first quarter 2025 release. If rates fall, customer financing could become more accessible. 3

    • Government supportmixed

      Demand depends on federal, state and local rebates, tax credits and other incentives. If these supports shrink, demand and external financing could be affected. 1

    • Energy transition and storage demandtailwind

      Demand for energy independence and battery storage could grow, especially if electricity prices change. The company already extends its offering in this direction. 1

    • Utility rate changesheadwind

      Moves to time-of-use rates and shifts of peak hours could reduce the economic appeal of solar systems if utilities adopt these policies widely. 1

    Competitive position

    Competitors include electric utilities, retail electric providers, independent power producers and other vertically integrated solar companies, some larger than Zeo. Many have stronger brand recognition, cheaper access to capital and their own financing products. 1

    Entry barriers in the industry are low, so new participants, including well-capitalized companies, can enter the market. Competition from community solar programs and dealer-sourced sales adds pressure on market share. 1

    • Electric utilities

      Main competitors named in the filing, with far greater financial and technical resources and the ability to offer cheaper energy or complementary services.

    • Retail electric providers

      Offer electricity without physical installation, competitive on price and on renewable usage.

    • Vertically integrated solar companies

      Rivals with in-house financing and manufacturing, some operating at a larger scale than Zeo.

    • Community solar programs

      Offerings from solar companies or local governments that may attract customers who would otherwise install panels at home.

    News & filings

    In the press

    No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

    SEC filings

    Sources

    1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Zeo Energy Corp. · 01 Apr 2026
    2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Zeo Energy Corp. · 14 Aug 2026
    3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Zeo Energy Corp. · 18 Jun 2025

    Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.