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olivLaw · US equity research

Semtech Corporation SMTC

Semiconductors & Related Devices · SIC 3674 · Vertical: Semiconductors & Related Devices (SIC 3674)

110.96USD−12.92% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Semtech is a provider of high-performance semiconductors for data center networking, IoT connectivity and cellular infrastructure, with adjusted operating margins rising. In the second quarter of fiscal 2027 net sales reached 341.9 million USD, up 33% year-over-year. The company reported record backlog and growth prospects that depend heavily on AI demand.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Semtech Corporation (SMTC) stock was 110.96 USD (−12.92% on the day), with market capitalisation 10.3 bn USD, beta 2.73, 52-week range 62.57–197.20 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q1 2027): revenue of 291.0 m USD (+15.9% YoY), net income of 26.6 m USD (+37.3% YoY), diluted EPS 0.27 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
10.3 bn USD
shares as of 22 May 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
Diluted EPS TTM -0.39 · TTM to 26 Apr 2026
E/P (TTM)
-0.35%
TTM to 26 Apr 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
2.73
Volatility (1y) 81%
52-week range
62.57197.20

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
33.2
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
103.95 – 185.18
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.09 · band width 56.2%
SMA 50 / 200
156.92 / 125.65
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-11.39 / -8.46
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−42.5%−1.1%−41.4 pp—
3 months−8.5%−0.5%−8.0 pp—
6 months−6.9%+4.4%−11.3 pp—
Year to date+50.6%+12.3%+38.3 pp—
1 year+72.2%+13.5%+58.7 pp+35.9%
3 years+653.8%+76.4%+577.4 pp+30.5%
5 years+23.0%+63.7%−40.7 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−43.7%
06 Oct 2026 → 04 Nov 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−85.4%
19 Nov 2021 → 01 Nov 2023
Compound annual growth (5y)
+4.2%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q1 2027 · 26 Apr 2026

Revenue
291.0 m USD
+15.9% YoY
Net income
26.6 m USD
+37.3% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.27
+22.7% YoY
net / operating
9.1% / 8.9%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26Q4 '26Q1 '27
Revenue215.4 m236.8 m251.0 m251.1 m257.6 m267.0 m274.4 m291.0 m
Cost of revenue109.9 m115.9 m120.5 m119.8 m123.5 m128.5 m136.1 m139.6 m
Gross profit105.5 m121.0 m130.5 m131.3 m134.1 m138.5 m138.3 m151.5 m
Research & development40.1 m42.6 m46.7 m47.5 m48.2 m49.4 m51.2 m57.6 m
SG&A55.8 m59.8 m54.5 m46.4 m58.5 m57.1 m59.8 m66.6 m
Operating income7.8 m17.8 m21.2 m36.0 m-16.2 m31.1 m-18.3 m25.8 m
Depreciation & amortisation12.6 m ≈10.1 m ≈—10.2 m10.3 m ≈10.1 m ≈—9.2 m
Interest expense23.5 m21.3 m21.6 m5.4 m4.7 m3.4 m27.0 m766.0 k
Pre-tax income-166.1 m-3.6 m6.5 m27.0 m-22.2 m4.4 m-30.4 m25.1 m
Income tax4.2 m4.0 m-33.2 m8.7 m4.8 m7.3 m-937.0 k112.0 k
Net income-170.3 m-7.6 m39.1 m19.3 m-27.1 m-2.9 m-29.8 m26.6 m
Diluted EPS-2.61-0.100.48 ≈0.22-0.31-0.03-0.32 ≈0.27
Operating cash flow-5.0 m ≈29.6 m ≈33.5 m27.8 m44.4 m ≈47.5 m ≈61.5 m36.2 m
Capex3.4 m ≈483.0 k ≈2.6 m1.7 m2.9 m ≈2.8 m ≈2.4 m8.2 m

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20192020202120222023202420252026
Revenue627.2 m547.5 m595.1 m740.9 m756.5 m868.8 m909.3 m1.0 bn
Revenue YoY+6.7%−12.7%+8.7%+24.5%+2.1%+14.8%+4.7%+15.5%
Net income69.6 m31.9 m59.9 m125.7 m61.4 m-1.1 bn-161.9 m-40.4 m
Net income YoY+101.0%−54.2%+88.0%+109.8%−51.2%−1,879.1%unavailableunavailable
Diluted EPS1.020.470.911.920.96-17.03-2.26-0.46
Diluted EPS YoY+100.0%−53.9%+93.6%+111.0%−50.0%−1,874.0%unavailableunavailable
net %11.1%5.8%10.1%17.0%8.1%-125.7%-17.8%-3.8%
Free cash flow166.5 m95.6 m86.2 m176.9 m98.4 m-123.1 m50.1 m171.4 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2026 · 25 Jan 2026

Cash
195.2 m USD
Financial debt
491.2 m USD
Net debt
296.1 m USD
Equity
549.7 m USD
Total assets
1.4 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.89x
Current ratio
2.37x
ROE
-7.4%
ROA
-2.9%
FCF margin
16.3%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2024
868.8 m
2025
909.3 m
2026
1.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Mar 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2024
572.5 m
2025
452.8 m
2026
507.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Mar 2026verified

Gross profit
2024
296.3 m
2025
456.5 m
2026
542.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Mar 2026verified

Research & development
2024
186.5 m
2025
170.9 m
2026
196.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Mar 2026verified

SG&A
2024
220.2 m
2025
222.4 m
2026
221.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Mar 2026verified

Operating income
2024
-944.3 m
2025
49.9 m
2026
32.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Mar 2026verified

Interest expense
2024
95.8 m
2025
90.1 m
2026
40.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Mar 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2024
-1.0 bn
2025
-183.4 m
2026
-21.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Mar 2026verified

Income tax
2024
50.5 m
2025
-22.0 m
2026
19.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Mar 2026verified

Net income
2024
-1.1 bn
2025
-161.9 m
2026
-40.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Mar 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2024
-17.03
2025
-2.26
2026
-0.46

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Mar 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2024
64.1 m
2025
71.6 m
2026
88.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Mar 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2024
128.6 m
2025
151.7 m
2026
195.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Mar 2026verified

Receivables
2024
134.3 m
2025
162.5 m
2026
160.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Mar 2026verified

Inventories
2024
145.0 m
2025
163.6 m
2026
195.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Mar 2026verified

Current assets
2024
534.2 m
2025
585.5 m
2026
655.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Mar 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2024
153.6 m
2025
126.2 m
2026
109.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Mar 2026verified

Goodwill
2024
541.2 m
2025
533.1 m
2026
457.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Mar 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2024
35.6 m
2025
33.1 m
2026
40.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Mar 2026verified

Total assets
2024
1.4 bn
2025
1.4 bn
2026
1.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Mar 2026verified

Short-term debt
2024
0
2025
45.6 m
2026
0

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Mar 2026verified

Long-term debt
2024
1.4 bn
2025
505.9 m
2026
491.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Mar 2026verified

Current liabilities
2024
217.2 m
2025
283.0 m
2026
275.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Mar 2026verified

Equity
2024
-307.3 m
2025
542.4 m
2026
549.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Mar 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2024
-93.9 m
2025
58.0 m
2026
181.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Mar 2026verified

Capex
2024
29.2 m
2025
7.9 m
2026
9.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Mar 2026verified

Free cash flow
2024
-123.1 m ≈
2025
50.1 m ≈
2026
171.4 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Mar 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2024
-22.7 m
2025
-11.9 m
2026
-38.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Mar 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2024
10.6 m
2025
-21.7 m
2026
-101.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Mar 2026verified

Share repurchases
2024
0
2025
0
2026
—

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Mar 2025verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
15.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Revenue CAGR 3Y
11.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2023 → FY 2026
Revenue CAGR 5Y
12.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2021 → FY 2026
EBIT growth (YoY)
-34.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Net income growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
241.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2026

Profitability

Gross margin
51.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Apr 2026
EBITDA margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT margin
2.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Apr 2026
Net margin
-3.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Apr 2026
FCF margin
15.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Apr 2026

Returns

ROE
-5.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Apr 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Apr 2026
ROA
-2.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Apr 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Apr 2026
ROIC
2.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Apr 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Apr 2026
ROCE
1.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Apr 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Apr 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
328.7 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Apr 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
0.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Apr 2026
Interest coverage
0.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Apr 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
2.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Apr 2026
Cash ratio
0.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Apr 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
189.5 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Apr 2026
Capital expenditure
16.3 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Apr 2026
Free cash flow
173.2 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Apr 2026
FCF conversion
unavailable
insufficient data
Cash conversion
unavailable
input data missing

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
57 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Apr 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Apr 2026
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
10.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Apr 2026
Enterprise value
10.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Apr 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
unavailable
insufficient data
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
Earnings yield
-0.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Apr 2026
P/B
18.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Apr 2026
P/S
9.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Apr 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Apr 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
476.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Apr 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Apr 2026
EV/Sales
9.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Apr 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Apr 2026
P/FCF
59.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Apr 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Apr 2026
FCF yield
1.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Apr 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Apr 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

4 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 43 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

110.96 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 10.3 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
10.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Apr 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
P/B
18.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Apr 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
-5.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Apr 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Apr 2026
Net margin
-3.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Apr 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
15.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

30/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2026
Latest reported period: 26 Apr 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 26 Apr 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 22 May 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 27 May 2026
verified 2786derived 192

Score by group

  • Balance sheet92
  • Quality42
  • Valuation29
  • Growth50

Estimated value range

Low
35.37
USD per share
Mid
50.88
USD per share
High
85.24
USD per share
Price: 110.96 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -54.1% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -118.1% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: low · 2 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 30.72 – 121.17 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)30.72 – 49.30 (Mid 37.92)
    WACC 9.1% · starting FCFF 203.4 m USD · terminal value share of EV 74%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
  • Peers: EV/Sales40.01 – 121.17 (Mid 63.84)
    28 companies used · median multiple 5.8x · quartiles 3.7x – 10.7x
    AAOI, ADI, ALGM, AMAT, AMD, AMKR, AVGO, DIOD, FSLR, FTCI, ICHR, INTC, MCHP, MRAM, MRVL, MTSI, MU, MXL, NVDA, NXPI, ON, PLAB, Q, QUIK, SPCB, SYNA, TXN, WOLF
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Semiconductors & Related Devices (SIC 3674)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 43/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
Gross margin · Quality51.6%29 (on a fixed band)12%
EBIT margin · Quality2.1%35 (vs peers)10%
FCF margin · Quality15.9%64 (on a fixed band)10%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth11.5%46 (on a fixed band)19%
Revenue growth (YoY) · Growth15.5%56 (vs peers)10%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet2.4x92 (on a fixed band)7%
EV/Sales · Valuation9.8x25 (vs peers)19%
FCF yield · Valuation1.7%34 (on a fixed band)14%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet· partial92/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Growth50/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality42/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/1 factors with a value
  • Valuation29/100 · 2/2 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

Semtech Corporation (SMTC). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-04-26.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.0 bn USD in 2026; YoY growth 15.5%; net margin -3.0%; ROE -5.8%.

The estimated value range is 35.37–85.24 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 50.88 USD, the price of 110.96 USD leaves a potential of -54.1% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -118.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 43/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: balance, returns. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Current ratio: 2.4x

What contradicts it

  • Gross margin: 51.6%
  • EV/Sales: 9.8x
  • The price is above the estimated value range
  • The valuation methods diverge

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Net debt / EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions).

Versus the vertical median

Semiconductors & Related Devices (SIC 3674) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
—
vertical median 41.6x
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 20.5x
P/S
9.5x
vertical median 6.8x
above median (+40.4%)
P/B
18.0x
vertical median 4.9x
above median (+264.7%)
ROE
-5.8%
vertical median 12.1%
below median (−148.0%)
Net margin
-3.0%
vertical median 11.8%
below median (−125.7%)
EBIT margin
2.1%
vertical median 13.2%
below median (−84.5%)
Revenue YoY
15.5%
vertical median 11.6%
above median (+33.2%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 0.1x
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 0.7%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
NVDANvidia Corp4,823.1 bn25.3117.2%63.7%+65.5%+13% / +328%
AVGOBroadcom Inc.1,553.7 bn41.644.2%42.9%+23.9%−19% / +252%
MUMicron Technology, Inc.899.7 bn10.788.3%63.8%+256.3%+236% / +945%
AMDAdvanced Micro Devices, Inc801.6 bn106.311.8%16.8%+34.3%+125% / +303%
INTCIntel Corporation309.7 bn—-10.9%-20.1%−0.5%+44% / +30%
AMATApplied Materials Inc293.2 bn31.941.1%30.1%+4.4%+46% / +147%
TXNTexas Instruments Inc284.6 bn40.439.7%34.3%+13.0%+85% / +104%
ARMArm Holdings PLC204.1 bn225.612.0%18.4%+22.8%+41% / +212%
ADIAnalog Devices Inc196.8 bn48.212.2%29.8%+16.9%+53% / +122%
MRVLMarvell Technology, Inc140.1 bn52.816.5%27.9%+42.1%+79% / +187%
NXPINXP Semiconductors N.V.66.8 bn20.829.2%23.4%−2.7%+36% / +30%
MPWRMonolithic Power Systems, Inc.61.5 bn69.525.1%23.9%+26.4%+36% / +130%
MCHPMicrochip Technology Incorporated40.9 bn104.27.2%9.3%+7.1%+41% / −10%
ALABAstera Labs, Inc.39.0 bn89.028.2%29.6%+115.1%+42% / unavailable
ONOn Semiconductor Corp27.7 bn41.48.9%10.8%−15.3%+42% / −0%
CRDOCredo Technology Group Holding Ltd25.7 bn48.730.7%33.8%+205.7%−23% / +662%
QQnity Electronics, Inc.24.8 bn42.07.6%11.5%+9.7%+46% / unavailable
FSLRFirst Solar, Inc.20.9 bn11.318.7%37.1%+24.1%−29% / +23%
MTSIMACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc.17.8 bn74.617.2%20.7%+32.6%+33% / +178%
SMTCSemtech Corporation10.3 bn—-5.8%-3.0%+15.5%+72% / +654%
AMKRAmkor Technology, Inc.8.8 bn14.413.6%8.3%+6.2%−2% / +27%
ALGMAllegro Microsystems, Inc.5.8 bn209.13.2%3.1%+22.8%+17% / +15%
CRUSCirrus Logic, Inc.5.8 bn14.619.5%20.2%+5.3%−4% / +53%
MXLMaxLinear, Inc.5.2 bn—-5.9%-4.4%+29.7%+265% / +204%
AAOIApplied Optoelectronics, Inc.5.0 bn—-5.4%-9.6%+82.8%+121% / +347%

1- and 3-year price returns: for SMTC from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
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What moves the 3-year price the most

    AI analysis

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    In brief

    Semtech is a provider of high-performance semiconductors for data center networking, IoT connectivity and cellular infrastructure, with adjusted operating margins rising. In the second quarter of fiscal 2027 net sales reached 341.9 million USD, up 33% year-over-year 3. The company reported record backlog and growth prospects that depend heavily on AI demand.

    SWOT

    Strengths

    • The company has rare expertise in analog and mixed-signal design, which lets it differentiate its products 1.
    • Diversification across three segments and three end markets reduces vulnerability to pressure in any single area 1.
    • Recent quarterly results show improving margins and a record backlog at the end of the second quarter 3.

    Weaknesses

    • Sales concentration among a few large customers and in China could increase exposure to order fluctuations 1.
    • Most manufacturing is outsourced, which depends on suppliers located outside the country 1.
    • GAAP results have been well below adjusted results in recent quarters, and past losses included goodwill impairment 3.

    Opportunities

    • Demand for AI connectivity in data centers could support growth in the Signal Integrity segment 13.
    • The HieFo acquisition could expand internal manufacturing capacity and photonic products 1.
    • Adoption of edge AI in IoT could increase demand for low-power solutions 1.

    Threats

    • Large competitors and hyperscale providers could develop their own solutions and reduce the company's share 1.
    • Geopolitical tensions, export restrictions and tariffs could disrupt the supply chain and sales 12.
    • AI infrastructure investment could correct sharply, which would reduce demand for the company's products 1.

    Risks

    • Customer concentrationhigh

      A few large customers account for a significant share of sales and receivables, and losing one could affect results 1.

    • Exposure to AI demandhigh

      Concentration of demand in AI semiconductors increases cyclical and competitive risk, especially if technical requirements change quickly 1.

    • Foreign supply chainmedium

      Dependence on suppliers and contractors in China, Taiwan, Israel and other countries could delay production if disruptions occur 1.

    • Pricing pressuremedium

      Product prices usually decline over the life cycle, which could reduce margins if not offset by volume or new products 1.

    • Macroeconomic and financial conditionslow

      High interest rates, banking instability and geopolitical tensions could affect demand and access to financing 1.

    Investment thesis

    What would need to be true (bull case)

    • If AI connectivity demand and the record backlog convert into revenue, growth in adjusted margins could continue 3.
    • Diversification across three segments and three end markets could stabilize results in weak periods 1.
    • The HieFo acquisition and photonic expansion could open new revenue sources in data centers 12.

    What would break the thesis

    • If hyperscale investment corrects, demand for the company's products could fall quickly 1.
    • Dependence on a few large customers and on the China market could amplify the impact of a slowdown 1.
    • The gap between GAAP and adjusted results shows that significant expenses are excluded from the core figures 3.

    What to watch

    • Delivery of the third-quarter sales and adjusted margin outlookQ3 2027
    • Development of backlog and orders in the data center segmentQ3 2027
    • Effects of completing the sale of the cellular module business classified as held for sale2027
    • Share of large customers and China in annual sales in the next annual reportnext 10-K

    Products, market & competition

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    The business

    Semtech designs, develops and markets analog and mixed-signal semiconductors for infrastructure, high-end consumer and industrial applications; the company was incorporated in Delaware in 1960 1. Its activity is organized in three reportable segments: Signal Integrity, Analog Mixed Signal and Wireless, and IoT Systems and Connectivity 1. Its end customers are mainly original equipment manufacturers, and the company outsources most manufacturing to foundries and assembly contractors 1. In March 2026 it acquired HieFo Corporation for approximately 34.0 million USD 1.

    Segments

    Signal Integrity

    The segment designs optical and copper circuits for data communications, including for data centers, PON and base station optical transceivers, with interfaces from 100Mbps to 1.6Tbps 1. Segment net sales in the first half of fiscal 2027 were 228,176 thousand USD 2. The HieFo acquisition extended the company's photonic production for data center interconnects 2.

    Analog Mixed Signal and Wireless

    The segment includes transient voltage suppressors, sensing products and radio products for industrial and IoT applications, including LoRa technology 1. First-half fiscal 2027 segment sales were 218,107 thousand USD 2.

    Market context

    The analog and mixed-signal semiconductor market has longer product life cycles than the digital market, and its customer base is diverse and specialized 1. The company serves mainly infrastructure, high-end consumer and industrial markets, and in fiscal 2026 the industrial share was 55% of net sales 1. AI demand in data centers is an important growth driver but could become more cyclical if infrastructure investment corrects 1.

    Trends

    • Data center connectivity demandtailwind

      Rising bandwidth needs and demand for high-speed connectivity, including for AI, support the company's optical and copper products 13. If hyperscale investment stays high, the Signal Integrity segment could keep growing.

    • IoT and edge AI expansiontailwind

      On-device AI in IoT applications and the adoption of edge computing support demand for the company's low-power solutions such as LoRa 1.

    • Cyclicality of the semiconductor industryheadwind

      The industry has periods of oversupply and falling prices, and orders can be cancelled or delayed in weak periods 1. Pricing pressure could limit margins if demand cools.

    • Reliance on foreign suppliers and trademixed

      The company depends on foundries and contractors outside the United States, and export restrictions and tariffs can affect sales and gross profit 12. The effect depends on future trade policy.

    Competitive position

    Semtech competes in analog and mixed-signal semiconductors with firms that have large research and development resources, and the sources consulted do not detail each competitor's position. AI demand also attracts hyperscale providers and well-capitalized competitors, who could develop their own solutions 1. The company notes that some distributors also sell competing products, which is customary in the industry 1.

    • Hyperscale providers and well-capitalized competitors

      The risk that they develop or adapt technology in-house for AI connectivity is noted in the annual report 1.

    • Distributors carrying competing product lines

      Some of the company's distributors also sell competing products, a common practice in the industry 1.

    • Analog and digital semiconductor manufacturers

      The sources describe market competition in general terms without naming specific firms 1.

    • IoT module and connectivity service providers

      The IoT segment competes with module and connectivity providers, with no further detail in the sources 1.

    News & filings

    In the press

    The latest news item in our archive is from 23 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 15 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

    SEC filings

    Sources

    1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2026-01-25 · SEC / Semtech Corporation · 23 Mar 2026
    2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-07-26 · SEC / Semtech Corporation · 26 Aug 2026
    3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Semtech Corporation · 25 Aug 2026

    Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.