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olivLaw · US equity research

Target Hospitality Corp. TH

Hotels, Rooming Houses, Camps & Other Lodging Places · SIC 7000 · Vertical: Hotels and lodging (SIC 70xx)

11.29USD−22.08% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Target Hospitality is one of the largest vertically integrated providers of modular accommodation and hospitality services in North America, serving companies in natural resource development, critical minerals and data center infrastructure. In 2026 the company rapidly reoriented toward its Workforce Hospitality Solutions segment, securing multi-year high-value contracts that could change its revenue and margin profile.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Target Hospitality Corp. (TH) stock was 11.29 USD (−22.08% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.1 bn USD, beta 0.81, 52-week range 6.22–21.45 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 85.5 m USD (+38.7% YoY), net income of -9.0 m USD, diluted EPS -0.09 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
1.1 bn USD
shares as of 06 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
Diluted EPS TTM -0.38 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
-3.36%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
0.81
Volatility (1y) 69%
52-week range
6.2221.45

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
24.2
oversold (≤ 30)
Bollinger (20, 2)
11.37 – 19.33
below the lower band · %B -0.01 · band width 51.8%
SMA 50 / 200
17.78 / 14.85
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-1.45 / -1.25
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−40.3%−1.1%−39.2 pp—
3 months−28.4%−0.5%−27.9 pp—
6 months−28.5%+4.4%−32.9 pp—
Year to date+40.9%+12.3%+28.6 pp—
1 year+52.8%+13.5%+39.2 pp+9.0%
3 years−17.3%+76.4%−93.7 pp+11.8%
5 years+172.0%+63.7%+108.4 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−47.4%
24 Sept 2026 → 04 Nov 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−71.9%
13 Jan 2023 → 24 Feb 2025
Compound annual growth (5y)
+22.2%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
85.5 m USD
+38.7% YoY
Net income
-9.0 m USD
unavailable YoY
Diluted EPS
-0.09
unavailable YoY
net / operating
-10.6% / -8.8%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue95.2 m83.7 m69.9 m61.6 m99.4 m89.8 m72.8 m85.5 m
Gross profit45.2 m37.0 m18.0 m-328.0 k17.9 m7.1 m6.9 m15.8 m
SG&A13.3 m12.6 m14.8 m12.7 m12.9 m18.1 m14.6 m18.8 m
Operating income28.0 m20.8 m-1.1 m-16.9 m69.0 k-16.8 m-14.3 m-7.5 m
Depreciation & amortisation18.0 m17.5 m17.6 m17.7 m18.5 m19.6 m19.6 m21.5 m
Interest expense5.0 m—5.4 m871.0 k334.0 k—601.0 k730.0 k
Pre-tax income24.2 m16.9 m-7.8 m-17.9 m-389.0 k-17.2 m-15.2 m-8.5 m
Income tax4.1 m4.3 m-1.3 m-2.9 m368.0 k-2.2 m-2.3 m473.0 k
Net income20.0 m12.5 m-6.5 m-14.9 m-795.0 k-14.9 m-12.9 m-9.0 m
Diluted EPS0.200.12 ≈-0.07-0.15-0.01-0.15 ≈-0.13-0.09
Operating cash flow31.4 m ≈30.6 m3.9 m11.1 m ≈53.4 m ≈5.7 m7.0 m104.0 m ≈
Capex——15.5 m————7.8 m
Share repurchases1.1 m11.6 m——————

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue240.6 m321.1 m225.1 m291.3 m502.0 m563.6 m386.3 m320.6 m
Revenue YoY+79.2%+33.5%−29.9%+29.4%+72.3%+12.3%−31.5%−17.0%
Net income5.0 m12.0 m-25.1 m-4.6 m73.9 m173.7 m71.3 m-37.1 m
Net income YoY+405.2%+141.6%−309.9%unavailableunavailable+134.9%−59.0%−152.1%
Diluted EPSunavailable0.13-0.26-0.050.741.560.70-0.37
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailable−300.0%unavailableunavailable+110.8%−55.1%−152.9%
net %2.1%3.7%-11.2%-1.6%14.7%30.8%18.4%-11.6%
Free cash flowunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
8.3 m USD
Financial debt
2.1 m USD
Net debt
-6.3 m USD
Equity
389.1 m USD
Total assets
530.2 m USD
Debt / equity
0.01x
Current ratio
0.87x
ROE
-9.2%
ROA
-5.9%
FCF margin
unavailable

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
563.6 m
2024
386.3 m
2025
320.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
313.3 m
2024
178.2 m
2025
42.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified

SG&A
2023
56.1 m
2024
54.3 m
2025
58.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified

Operating income
2023
240.6 m
2024
108.8 m
2025
-34.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
84.0 m
2024
72.8 m
2025
73.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
324.6 m ≈
2024
181.6 m ≈
2025
38.6 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026derived

Pre-tax income
2023
224.8 m
2024
92.8 m
2025
-43.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified

Income tax
2023
51.1 m
2024
21.4 m
2025
-6.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified

Net income
2023
173.7 m
2024
71.3 m
2025
-37.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
1.56
2024
0.70
2025
-0.37

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
105.3 m
2024
101.4 m
2025
99.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
103.9 m
2024
190.7 m
2025
8.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified

Receivables
2023
67.1 m
2024
49.3 m
2025
56.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified

Inventories
2023
2.1 m
2024
1.9 m
2025
2.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified

Current assets
2023
180.5 m
2024
249.3 m
2025
73.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
349.1 m
2024
320.9 m
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2025verified

Goodwill
2023
41.0 m
2024
41.0 m
2025
41.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
66.3 m
2024
52.8 m
2025
39.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified

Total assets
2023
694.4 m
2024
725.8 m
2025
530.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
20.9 m
2024
16.2 m
2025
44.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
1.4 m
2024
180.3 m
2025
2.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
178.1 m
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2024verified

Current liabilities
2023
70.3 m
2024
233.4 m
2025
84.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
317.0 m
2024
304.7 m
2025
141.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified

Equity
2023
377.3 m
2024
421.1 m
2025
389.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
156.8 m
2024
151.7 m
2025
74.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified

Investing cash flow
2023
-68.2 m
2024
-28.8 m
2025
-67.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-166.4 m
2024
-36.1 m
2025
-188.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
—
2024
33.5 m
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2025verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
-17.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
-13.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
7.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
-131.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
-152.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
-152.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing

Profitability

Gross margin
13.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBITDA margin
11.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
-11.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
-10.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
unavailable
input data missing

Returns

ROE
-9.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
-6.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
-8.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROCE
-6.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
-3.5 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
-0.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Debt / equity
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Interest coverage
unavailable
the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used

Liquidity

Current ratio
0.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
0.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
170.1 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
unavailable
input data missing
Free cash flow
unavailable
input data missing
FCF conversion
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion
418.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
57 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
1.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
1.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
unavailable
insufficient data
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
Earnings yield
-3.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
3.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
3.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
27.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBIT
unavailable
insufficient data
EV/Sales
3.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/FCF
unavailable
input data missing
FCF yield
unavailable
input data missing
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • score weight coverage: 50.0% of at least 60%

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

11.29 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 1.1 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
1.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
P/B
3.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
27.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROE
-9.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
-10.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
-17.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

29/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 06 Aug 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 10 Aug 2026
verified 1299derived 85

Score by group

50% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

Low
2.50
USD per share
Mid
4.18
USD per share
High
6.50
USD per share
Price: 11.29 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -63.0% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -170.0% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: single method · 1 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 2.50 – 6.50 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA2.50 – 6.50 (Mid 4.18)
    16 companies used · median multiple 10.2x · quartiles 6.0x – 15.8x
    BYD, CHH, CNTY, CVEO, CZR, FLL, HLT, IHG, LVS, MGM, MLCO, PK, TNL, WH, WYNN, XHR
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Hotels and lodging (SIC 70xx)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 50.0% of at least 60%

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality-8.6%8 (vs peers)21%
Net margin · Quality-10.8%11 (vs peers)13%
FCF conversion · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth-13.9%0 (on a fixed band)17%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet-0.1x81 (vs peers)21%
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet0.6x0 (on a fixed band)8%
P/E (TTM) · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
EV/EBITDA · Valuation27.6x11 (vs peers)21%
FCF yield · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet58/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality9/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation· partial11/100 · 1/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

TARGET HOSPITALITY CORP. (TH). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 320.6 m USD in 2025; YoY growth -17.0%; net margin -10.8%; ROE -9.8%; net debt/EBITDA -0.1x.

The estimated value range is 2.50–6.50 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 4.18 USD, the price of 11.29 USD leaves a potential of -63.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -170.0% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 50.0% of at least 60%).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Net debt / EBITDA: -0.1x

What contradicts it

  • ROIC: -8.6%
  • Net margin: -10.8%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: -13.9%
  • Current ratio: 0.6x
  • EV/EBITDA: 27.6x
  • The price is above the estimated value range

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Interest coverage, P/E (TTM), FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Hotels and lodging (SIC 70xx) · same major group (2-digit SIC) · compared with 29 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
—
vertical median 29.8x
EV/EBITDA
27.6x
vertical median 11.3x
above median (+144.6%)
P/S
3.2x
vertical median 1.3x
above median (+140.8%)
P/B
3.0x
vertical median 2.5x
above median (+21.6%)
ROE
-9.8%
vertical median 11.2%
below median (−187.1%)
Net margin
-10.8%
vertical median 5.7%
below median (−289.5%)
EBIT margin
-11.1%
vertical median 15.4%
below median (−172.3%)
Revenue YoY
-17.0%
vertical median 4.1%
below median (−518.2%)
Net debt/EBITDA
-0.1x
vertical median 3.3x
below median (−102.6%)
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 1.0%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
HTHTH World Group Ltd154.3 bn218.441.5%20.1%+10.5%+9% / +37%
MARMarriott International Inc109.4 bn42.4—9.7%+4.3%+39% / +110%
HLTHilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.83.8 bn50.8—13.4%+7.7%+32% / +125%
IHGInterContinental Hotels Group PLC29.0 bn36.2—14.6%+5.4%+31% / +124%
LVSLas Vegas Sands Corp.25.5 bn16.7262.8%11.8%+15.2%−40% / −12%
ATATAtour Lifestyle Holdings Limited14.5 bn63.750.5%16.6%+41.0%−9% / +97%
WYNNWynn Resorts, Limited8.5 bn19.7—6.1%+0.1%−36% / −2%
MGMMGM Resorts International8.3 bn12.726.8%3.9%+1.7%−7% / −17%
CZRCaesars Entertainment, Inc.6.0 bn—-15.1%-4.5%+2.1%+26% / −34%
WHWyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc.5.9 bn29.838.2%14.0%+1.5%+10% / +4%
MLCOMelco Resorts & Entertainment Limited5.7 bn30.6—3.6%+11.3%−48% / −33%
BYDBoyd Gaming Corp5.5 bn11.719.6%12.3%+4.1%−7% / +32%
CHHChoice Hotels International Inc5.4 bn26.7146.5%12.7%+0.8%+32% / +9%
TNLTravel & Leisure Co.4.7 bn20.7—5.7%+4.1%+13% / +118%
PKPark Hotels & Resorts Inc.3.4 bn—-5.0%-6.4%−2.2%+57% / +14%
HGVHilton Grand Vacations Inc.3.3 bn8.431.0%7.0%+1.3%+2% / +28%
SHOSunstone Hotel Investors, Inc.2.4 bn54.72.8%5.3%+6.0%+39% / +32%
PENNPenn Entertainment, Inc.2.3 bn—-37.4%-12.7%+5.8%+18% / −29%
XHRXenia Hotels & Resorts, Inc.2.0 bn628.90.3%0.3%+3.8%+57% / +79%
MCRIMonarch Casino & Resort, Inc.2.0 bn17.920.4%20.4%+4.4%+17% / +80%
THTarget Hospitality Corp.1.1 bn—-9.8%-10.8%−17.0%+53% / −17%
BALYBally’s Corporation680.3 m———+0.1%−23% / unavailable
CVEOCiveo Corp360.4 m—-4.7%-1.1%−6.3%+56% / +60%
FLLFull House Resorts Inc29.1 m—-936.4%-12.1%+3.5%−70% / −84%
CNTYCentury Casinos, Inc.16.9 m——-9.6%−0.5%−61% / −86%

1- and 3-year price returns: for TH from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
3 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
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What moves the 3-year price the most

    AI analysis

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    In brief

    Target Hospitality is one of the largest vertically integrated providers of modular accommodation and hospitality services in North America, serving companies in natural resource development, critical minerals and data center infrastructure. In 2026 the company rapidly reoriented toward its Workforce Hospitality Solutions segment, securing multi-year high-value contracts that could change its revenue and margin profile.

    SWOT

    Strengths

    • A vertically integrated network, from design and construction to community operation and hospitality services.
    • Reusable modular assets that can be redeployed across segments and regions, allowing rapid redistribution of capacity.
    • Strengthened liquidity through the new credit facility, which provides flexibility for executing contracts.

    Weaknesses

    • High concentration of revenue in a few large customers, which increases exposure to delays or lost contracts.
    • Construction revenue carries lower margins than the former PCC contract, which reduced profitability.
    • Lower occupancy in the HFS – South segment reduced revenue in the second quarter of 2026.

    Opportunities

    • WHS contracts awarded in 2026 could raise revenue and margins as communities come into operation.
    • The expanded commercial pipeline for data centers and energy could generate new multi-year contracts.
    • The Target Hyper/Scale platform could allow rapid customization of solutions for new markets.

    Threats

    • Construction delays or customer project delays could postpone expected revenue.
    • Changes in government policy or cancellation of contracts for convenience could reduce demand.
    • Competitive pressure and rising workforce costs could compress margins.

    Risks

    • Customer concentrationhigh

      A small number of customers generates a major part of revenue, and the loss of one contract could seriously affect results.

    • Execution of new contractshigh

      Ramp-up of WHS contracts and completion of communities on schedule is uncertain, and delays could affect revenue and margins.

    • Large capital expendituresmedium

      Planned capital investments for 2026 are significant, and if financing or cash flow does not support the plan, financial flexibility could be limited.

    • Government policymedium

      Government contracts can be terminated for convenience or depend on annual budgets, which can cause sudden revenue reductions.

    • Net lossesmedium

      The company reported net losses in 2025 and in the second quarter of 2026, and a return to profitability depends on margin improvement.

    Investment thesis

    What would need to be true (bull case)

    • If the new WHS contracts are executed on time, revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth could confirm the advantage of vertical integration and the modular network.
    • The new credit facility could provide financial room to accept additional contracts from the expanded data center and energy pipeline.
    • Rising customer advance payments could support short-term cash flows if the trend is maintained.

    What would break the thesis

    • Dependence on a few large customers could leave revenue vulnerable to delays or cancellations.
    • Construction contracts carry lower margins, and if their share grows, profitability could remain below past levels.
    • If demand in the HFS – South segment does not recover, revenue from that area could continue to decline.

    What to watch

    • Delivery against the 2026 outlook for revenue and adjusted EBITDA2026
    • Pace at which WHS communities and new contracts enter operationQ3 2026
    • Trend in occupancy in the HFS – South segmentQ3 2026
    • Level of capital expenditures and use of the new credit facilitynext 10-Q

    Products, market & competition

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    The business

    Target Hospitality, initially founded in 1978 and operating as a specialty rental and hospitality services company since 2006, provides turnkey solutions to customers: site design, construction, operations, security, housekeeping, catering and concierge services. Its network includes 29 communities across the US and Canada, with 16,991 beds at the end of 2025, and it also operates 2 communities it neither owns nor leases. The 'Target 12' model focuses on customers' workforce outside working hours, and the company states that most services are delivered directly by its own staff.

    Revenue in 2025 came mainly from specialty rental integrated with hospitality services (about 58.5%), from leasing of lodging facilities (14.3%) and from construction fee income (27.2%). Key customers are companies in natural resource development, critical minerals, data center infrastructure and a U.S. government contractor, and concentration is high: five customers accounted for about 63% of revenue.

    In 2025 the company set up the Workforce Hospitality Solutions (WHS) segment following contracts with Lithium Nevada, a data center community contract and a power community contract. Since then further contract awards have been added, making WHS the main growth driver of the company.

    Segments

    Government

    The Government segment includes the DIPC community in Dilley, Texas, operating under a contract with a fixed minimum revenue regardless of occupancy that can be cancelled for convenience on prior notice. The PCC contract was terminated in February 2025 and its assets were reactivated for DIPC, which reduced segment revenue.

    HFS – South

    The HFS – South segment covers the company's community network in the southern US and is affected by lower occupancy. In the second quarter of 2026 its revenue declined, which the company attributed to lower utilization, and this trend could affect results if it does not improve.

    Market context

    The specialty accommodation market for workforces in extractive and infrastructure industries depends on available infrastructure, customers' capital spending and the size of rotational workforces. Demand from data centers and power generation grows with cloud and artificial intelligence expansion, but depends on projects with timelines that can be postponed.

    The company says it is at the early stage of a multi-decade investment cycle in data centers, power generation and other critical infrastructure, with geographically diverse demand across North America. However, the pace of this demand depends on customers' capital decisions, which can vary.

    Trends

    • Demand for artificial intelligence and energy infrastructuretailwind

      The expansion of data centers and energy projects in remote areas creates a need for quickly deployable accommodation, and recently signed WHS contracts could support revenue growth.

    • Dependence on a small number of customersheadwind

      Customer concentration remains high, and the loss of a major customer or a delay in a project could significantly reduce revenue.

    • Improved liquidity and financingtailwind

      The new asset-based revolving credit facility closed in July 2026 could provide flexibility to fund investments in new contracts.

    • Immigration policy and government budgetsmixed

      Demand in the Government segment depends on federal immigration policy and budgets, and contracts can be cancelled or adjusted, which creates uncertainty.

    Competitive position

    The company competes with national, regional and local specialty accommodation operators, on the basis of location, cost, quality and range of services, design and construction experience and reputation. Some competitors may have larger market share, greater pricing flexibility or superior financial resources, which can put pressure on margins.

    The company's advantage lies in its vertically integrated network, which covers everything from site identification to community operation, and in its ability to redeploy modular assets between customers and regions. Competitive pressure could increase if other providers offer more attractive innovative solutions to customers.

    • National, regional and local specialty accommodation operators

      The sources do not name these competitors, but describe pressure from companies with larger market share or greater resources.

    • Temporary worker lodge providers

      These providers often operate smaller facilities without integrated services and compete on short-term contracts.

    • Rig housing operators

      They compete for accommodation of drilling crews, where contracts are usually project-based or short-term.

    • Other providers for data center and power infrastructure projects

      They could offer alternative workforce solutions for infrastructure projects, and their entry could affect pricing.

    News & filings

    In the press

    SEC filings

    • Current report09 Sept 2026
      Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Current report01 Sept 2026
      Regulation FD disclosure
    • Current report26 Aug 2026
      Regulation FD disclosure · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Quarterly report10 Aug 2026
    • Current report10 Aug 2026
      Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Current report05 Aug 2026
      Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Current report27 Jul 2026
      Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Current report28 May 2026
      Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Current report21 May 2026
      Shareholder vote · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Quarterly report11 May 2026

    Sources

    1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Target Hospitality Corp. · 11 Mar 2026
    2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Target Hospitality Corp. · 10 Aug 2026
    3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Target Hospitality Corp. · 10 Aug 2026

    Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.