olivLaw · US equity research
The Western Union Company WU
Services-Business Services, NEC · SIC 7389 · Vertical: Services-Business Services, NEC (SIC 7389)
The Western Union Company is a global cross-border money transfer and payments platform with a network of retail agents and digital channels. The company is under margin pressure while it tries to expand its digital services and complete the Intermex acquisition, a context that makes its profile relevant to investors and to anyone following remittances. Revenues were 4050.7 mn USD in 2025, and in the second quarter of 2026 GAAP revenue was 1.0 bn USD.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, The Western Union Company (WU) stock was 6.59 USD (+5.44% on the day), with market capitalisation 2.1 bn USD, P/E 6.3 on diluted EPS of 1.05 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 14.26%, beta 0.61, 52-week range 5.90–10.28 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 1.0 bn USD (−2.3% YoY), net income of 78.0 m USD (−44.1% YoY), diluted EPS 0.25 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 60.2
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 5.95 – 6.48
- above the upper band · %B 1.20 · band width 8.6%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 6.44 / 8.03
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.01 / -0.07
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +8.0% | −1.1% | +9.1 pp | — |
| 3 months | −9.2% | −0.5% | −8.8 pp | — |
| 6 months | −26.7% | +4.4% | −31.1 pp | — |
| Year to date | −29.2% | +12.3% | −41.5 pp | — |
| 1 year | −27.0% | +13.5% | −40.6 pp | −4.0% |
| 3 years | −43.9% | +76.4% | −120.3 pp | +2.0% |
| 5 years | −63.6% | +63.7% | −127.3 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.1 bn | 983.6 m | 1.0 bn | 1.0 bn | 1.0 bn | 982.7 m | 1.0 bn | 1.0 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 661.7 m | 619.2 m | 642.8 m | 643.2 m | 645.4 m | 654.9 m | 676.7 m | 666.3 m |
| SG&A | 218.4 m | 187.0 m | 190.6 m | 187.5 m | 177.7 m | 204.8 m | 204.4 m | 212.2 m |
| Operating income | 178.1 m | 177.4 m | 192.7 m | 201.9 m | 185.3 m | 123.0 m | 132.1 m | 130.8 m |
| Interest expense | 30.4 m | 32.6 m | 36.7 m | 37.0 m | 36.7 m | 36.2 m | 39.5 m | 38.4 m |
| Pre-tax income | 147.7 m | 147.3 m | 159.7 m | 167.6 m | 151.1 m | 90.1 m | 95.4 m | 96.1 m |
| Income tax | -238.0 m | 23.8 m | 37.6 m | 28.0 m | 36.7 m | 25.4 m | 18.7 m | 18.1 m |
| Net income | 385.7 m | 123.5 m | 122.1 m | 139.6 m | 114.4 m | 64.7 m | 76.7 m | 78.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | 1.14 ≈ | 0.36 | 0.37 | 0.43 | 0.36 ≈ | 0.20 | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| Operating cash flow | 134.0 m | 148.2 m | -300.0 k ≈ | 260.4 m ≈ | 135.4 m | 109.0 m | 104.9 m ≈ | 107.3 m ≈ |
| Capex | 14.3 m | 3.4 m | 7.5 m ≈ | 7.7 m ≈ | 19.9 m | 6.4 m | 10.3 m ≈ | 7.4 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 79.6 m | 82.3 m | 76.8 m ≈ | 75.5 m ≈ | 74.4 m | 79.4 m | 73.4 m ≈ | 73.7 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 3.7 m | 76.7 m | 79.5 m ≈ | 52.3 m ≈ | 26.1 m | 52.9 m | 11.1 m ≈ | 1.7 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 31 percentile of its own 36-quarter history (min 3.2, median 7.4, max 48.8; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5.6 bn | 5.3 bn | 4.8 bn | 5.1 bn | 4.5 bn | 4.4 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.1 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +1.2% | −5.3% | −8.6% | +4.9% | −11.7% | −2.6% | −3.4% | −3.8% |
| Net income | 851.9 m | 1.1 bn | 744.3 m | 805.8 m | 910.6 m | 626.0 m | 934.2 m | 499.6 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +24.2% | −29.7% | +8.3% | +13.0% | −31.3% | +49.2% | −46.5% |
| Diluted EPS | 1.87 | 2.46 | 1.79 | 1.97 | 2.34 | 1.68 | 2.74 | 1.52 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +31.6% | −27.2% | +10.1% | +18.8% | −28.2% | +63.1% | −44.5% |
| net % | 15.2% | 20.0% | 15.4% | 15.9% | 20.3% | 14.4% | 22.2% | 12.3% |
| Free cash flow | 684.6 m | 866.5 m | 841.0 m | 1.0 bn | 549.7 m | 760.2 m | 368.9 m | 505.2 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 1.2 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 2.9 bn USD
- Net debt
- 1.7 bn USD
- Equity
- 957.8 m USD
- Total assets
- 8.3 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 3.01x
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 51.9%
- ROA
- 6.0%
- FCF margin
- 12.5%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.8 bn | 5.1 bn | 4.5 bn | 4.4 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 2.8 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 2.0 bn ≈ | 2.2 bn ≈ | 1.8 bn ≈ | 1.7 bn ≈ | 1.6 bn ≈ | 1.5 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026derived |
| SG&A | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | 964.2 m | 867.8 m | 863.4 m | 742.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 967.3 m | 1.1 bn | 884.9 m | 817.5 m | 725.8 m | 757.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 225.6 m | — | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2021verified |
| EBITDA | 1.2 bn ≈ | — | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2021derived |
| Interest expense | 118.5 m | 105.5 m | 101.0 m | 105.3 m | 119.8 m | 143.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 855.1 m | 935.4 m | 1.0 bn | 745.8 m | 618.6 m | 625.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 110.8 m | 129.6 m | 98.0 m | 119.8 m | -315.6 m | 126.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 744.3 m | 805.8 m | 910.6 m | 626.0 m | 934.2 m | 499.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 1.79 | 1.97 | 2.34 | 1.68 | 2.74 | 1.52 | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 415.2 m | 408.9 m | 388.4 m | 371.8 m | 341.1 m | 327.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.90 | 0.94 | 0.94 | 0.94 | 0.94 | 0.94 | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.4 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 150.4 m | 129.4 m | 109.6 m | 91.4 m | 84.2 m | 95.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 2.6 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 505.0 m | 417.1 m | 457.9 m | 380.2 m | 315.4 m | 356.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 9.5 bn | 8.8 bn | 8.5 bn | 8.2 bn | 8.4 bn | 8.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | — | 2.8 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.2 bn | 3.0 bn | 2.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 9.3 bn | 8.5 bn | 8.0 bn | 7.7 bn | 7.4 bn | 7.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 186.6 m | 355.6 m | 477.8 m | 479.0 m | 968.9 m | 957.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 877.5 m | 1.0 bn | 581.6 m | 783.1 m | 406.3 m | 543.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 36.5 m | 37.7 m | 31.9 m | 22.9 m | 37.4 m | 38.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 841.0 m ≈ | 1.0 bn ≈ | 549.7 m ≈ | 760.2 m ≈ | 368.9 m ≈ | 505.2 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -373.5 m | 192.0 m | 525.5 m | -140.8 m | -16.3 m | -230.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -185.9 m | -1.3 bn | -1.2 bn | -896.8 m | -69.3 m | -782.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 370.3 m | 381.6 m | 364.2 m | 349.0 m | 321.5 m | 309.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 239.7 m | 409.9 m | 369.9 m | 308.4 m | 186.2 m | 234.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 63 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 2.1 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation98
- Returns87
- Quality76
- Balance sheet35
- Growth0
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 12.35 – 49.71 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)22.39 – 49.71 (Mid 31.23)WACC 6.7% · starting FCFF 528.9 m USD · terminal value share of EV 81%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E21.04 – 41.41 (Mid 27.77)20 companies used · median multiple 26.5x · quartiles 20.1x – 39.5xACN, BR, CASS, CBZ, CPAY, EBAY, FICO, FIS, FLYW, GRAB, HQY, MA, MELI, MSCI, PAYS, PYPL, RBA, RSSS, UBER, WEX
- Dividend discount (DDM)12.35 – 16.61 (Mid 14.17)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 63/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 18.5% | 74 (vs peers) | 14% |
| Net margin · Quality | 8.3% | 56 (vs peers) | 8% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 123.6% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -3.3% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -13.4% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 3.8x | 35 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 6.3x | 96 (vs peers) | 14% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 20.1% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 19.1% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 72.9% | 67 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial35/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality76/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns87/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation98/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
THE WESTERN UNION COMPANY (WU). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 4.1 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -3.8%; net margin 8.3%; ROE 36.8%.
The estimated value range is 21.04–41.41 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 27.77 USD, the price of 6.59 USD leaves a potential of 321.3% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 76.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 63/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: balance. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 18.5%
- FCF conversion: 123.6%
- P/E (TTM): 6.3x
- FCF yield: 20.1%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 19.1%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -3.3%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -13.4%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Net debt / EBITDA, Current ratio, EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Services-Business Services, NEC (SIC 7389) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BABAAlibaba Group Holding Ltd | 195.6 bn | 131.6 | 10.3% | 10.1% | +8.1% | −33% / +41% |
| UBERUber Technologies, Inc. | 142.7 bn | 41.3 | 12.4% | 6.1% | +18.3% | −20% / +24% |
| MELIMercadoLibre, Inc. | 88.2 bn | 47.3 | 27.5% | 5.3% | +39.1% | −16% / +7% |
| EBAYeBay Inc. | 54.9 bn | 27.2 | 46.6% | 16.9% | +7.9% | +51% / +205% |
| PYPLPayPal Holdings, Inc. | 50.0 bn | 11.5 | 23.8% | 13.8% | +4.3% | −4% / +4% |
| MSCIMsci Inc. | 48.2 bn | 35.7 | — | 40.3% | +9.7% | +20% / +29% |
| FISVFiserv, Inc. | 33.0 bn | — | -17.0% | -18.9% | +3.6% | +1% / −52% |
| CPAYCorpay, Inc | 27.5 bn | 25.4 | 30.5% | 22.7% | +13.9% | +42% / +74% |
| GPNGlobal Payments Inc. | 25.4 bn | — | -4.1% | -9.1% | −0.4% | +27% / −17% |
| BRBroadridge Financial Solutions, Inc. | 21.4 bn | 20.9 | 40.2% | 13.9% | +8.5% | −17% / −2% |
| RBARB Global, Inc | 17.6 bn | 39.9 | 8.8% | 10.0% | +7.2% | −3% / +49% |
| FISFidelity National Information Services, Inc. | 15.3 bn | 4.4 | 23.0% | 26.8% | +5.4% | −55% / −49% |
| FICOFair Isaac Corp | 15.1 bn | 20.3 | — | 34.1% | +15.9% | −61% / −36% |
| CSGPCoStar Group, Inc. | 13.1 bn | 74.3 | 2.2% | 4.9% | +18.7% | −53% / −61% |
| HQYHealthequity, Inc. | 9.0 bn | 39.4 | 11.4% | 17.4% | +9.5% | +3% / +62% |
| WEXWEX Inc. | 5.9 bn | 15.5 | 35.6% | 14.0% | +1.2% | +21% / +2% |
| ALITAlight, Inc. | 5.7 bn | — | -67.9% | -46.0% | −3.0% | −72% / −92% |
| XMTRXometry, Inc. | 5.2 bn | — | -3.9% | -2.0% | +25.9% | +94% / +364% |
| CBZCBIZ, Inc. | 3.0 bn | 25.8 | 6.8% | 4.6% | +52.1% | −0% / +6% |
| FLYWFlywire Corporation | 2.7 bn | 36.3 | 9.1% | 10.3% | +26.6% | +56% / −6% |
| AHGAkso Health Group | 2.2 bn | 133.0 | -9.8% | -135.0% | −6.4% | −11% / +56% |
| WUThe Western Union Company | 2.1 bn | 6.3 | 36.8% | 8.3% | −3.8% | −27% / −44% |
| PAYSPaysign, Inc. | 863.9 m | 58.4 | 30.8% | 15.7% | +40.5% | +194% / +551% |
| PHRPhreesia, Inc. | 818.1 m | 77.1 | 3.1% | 2.1% | +14.5% | −36% / −14% |
| CASSCass Information Systems, Inc. | 704.1 m | 18.9 | 16.3% | 18.9% | +5.3% | +31% / +33% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for WU from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 3.66 Total return -34% · Per year -34% | 6.50 Total return 13% · Per year 13% | 9.83 Total return 66% · Per year 66% |
| 3 years | 3.02 Total return -25% · Per year -9% | 6.08 Total return 33% · Per year 10% | 10.17 Total return 106% · Per year 27% |
| 5 years | 2.49 Total return -18% · Per year -4% | 5.69 Total return 52% · Per year 9% | 10.53 Total return 148% · Per year 20% |
- Exit P/E± 1.52
- Net margin± 1.06
- Annual revenue growth± 0.94
- Annual dilution± 0.09
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 30 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (04 Nov 2026).
In brief
The Western Union Company is a global cross-border money transfer and payments platform with a network of retail agents and digital channels. The company is under margin pressure while it tries to expand its digital services and complete the Intermex acquisition, a context that makes its profile relevant to investors and to anyone following remittances. Revenues were 4050.7 mn USD in 2025, and in the second quarter of 2026 GAAP revenue was 1.0 bn USD.
SWOT
Strengths
- A globally recognized brand associated with speed and trust supports demand for the company's services 1.
- An extensive agent network covering many countries provides a distribution advantage that is hard to replicate 1.
- The digital segment is growing steadily and taking a larger share of transactions, supporting diversification 2.
Weaknesses
- Heavy reliance on money transfer, which generates most revenue, makes the company vulnerable to downturns in that business 1.
- Americas retail activity slowed in the second quarter of 2026, pressuring margins and earnings per share 2.
- Agent commissions and compliance costs may limit flexibility in adjusting prices 1.
Opportunities
Risks
- Dependence on migrationhigh
Transfer volume depends on migrant mobility, which can be affected by economic and political factors that are hard to control 1.
- Competitive pressurehigh
Competition from digital providers and digital currencies could push prices down and compress margins 1.
- Regulation and compliancemedium
Anti-money laundering requirements and agreements with authorities can raise costs and limit operations 1.
- Delayed Intermex acquisitionmedium
Completion depends on regulatory approvals, and the delay has pushed out expected synergies 2.
- Operational and data security risksmedium
The company handles large volumes of personal data and relies on IT systems and third-party providers, exposing it to incidents 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- The digital segment is growing quickly and becoming a larger part of the business, which could support more stable revenue over time 2.
- Bill payment and consumer services have grown, which could reduce reliance on money transfer alone 2.
- If the Intermex deal closes and synergies materialize, the company could expand its share on strategic corridors 12.
What would break the thesis
- The money transfer business, which accounts for most revenue, declined in 2025, and margin pressure continued into the second quarter of 2026 12.
- Digital competition and new entrants could erode market share and limit the ability to hold prices 1.
- Meeting the outlook depends on macroeconomic and immigration conditions the company does not control, adding uncertainty 2.
What to watch
- Completion of the Intermex acquisition and timing of synergiesQ3 2026
- Transaction volume trends in the Americas retail segmentQ3 2026
- Launch of the digital wallet and the proposed stablecoin2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 30 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (04 Nov 2026).
The business
Western Union is a leader in cross-border, cross-currency money movement, payments and digital financial services, aiming to offer accessible services to people and communities 1. It operates through two segments, Consumer Money Transfer and Consumer Services, and is increasingly positioning itself as a digital-first company alongside its physical agent network 1. In November 2025 it announced its 'Beyond' strategy, emphasizing digital wallets, consumer financial services and a digital asset network supported by a dollar stablecoin 1.
Revenue comes mainly from fees paid by customers for transfers, which vary by channel, locations, funding method, principal amount and the exchange rate spread 1. The company pays commissions to agents, and much of the physical infrastructure cost is covered by agents' primary businesses such as post offices, banks and retailers 1. The network spans more than 200 countries and territories, with most locations outside the United States 1.
In August 2025 Western Union agreed to acquire International Money Express for about 500 mn USD in cash, a deal expected to close in the second quarter of 2026 subject to remaining regulatory approvals 1. Intermex focuses primarily on U.S. to Latin America and Caribbean corridors 1. The July 2026 release shows the closing has been delayed while the company continues discussions with regulators 2.
Market context
The money transfer industry is highly fragmented and competitive, and cross-border volumes depend on migration, global economic opportunity and employment levels 1. The company sees growing acceptance of electronic, mobile and internet-based services as well as digital currencies, suggesting a rising share of remittances could be sent through digital means 1. Regulation keeps tightening, raising compliance costs 1.
The macroeconomic backdrop remains important: slowing economies in migrant source countries or changes in immigration policy could affect volumes 1. The July 2026 release notes that its outlook assumes no material changes in macroeconomic conditions or immigration policies, including possible escalations of Middle East conflicts 2.
Trends
- Migration and economic conditionsmixed
Remittance volume is linked to labor mobility, job availability and immigration policy, factors that can shift without the company's control 1.
- Shift to digital channelstailwind
Consumers increasingly prefer electronic and digital transfers, and the company's digital segment is growing, with a 43% share of CMT transactions in the second quarter of 2026 12.
- Regulatory pressureheadwind
Anti-money laundering and consumer protection requirements raise costs, and existing compliance agreements shape the business model 1.
- Digital currencies and new entrantsheadwind
New providers, including digital currencies and platforms that depart from the traditional model, add pressure on prices and market share 1.
Competitive position
Western Union faces competition from global and regional money transfer providers, banks, postal organizations, digital and payment platforms, digital currencies and informal networks 1. The main competitive factors are brand, trust, price, speed and distribution network 1.
The company specifically points to competitors that charge no fee for transfers through bank accounts in the United States, and to their possible international expansion, which could become significant competition 1. Price reductions used in the past can reduce margins in the short term 1.
- Global money transfer providers
Companies that allow transfers to many destinations, both in the home country and abroad 1.
- Regional money transfer providers (niche)
Operators focused on a smaller number of geographic corridors or services within one region 1.
- Digital and payment service providers
Platforms that let consumers send money over the internet or mobile devices, including digital wallets 1.
- Banks and post offices
Banking and postal institutions offering transfers, wire services and payment instruments, some of which are also network partners 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Путин разрешил продажу российской дочки Western Union компании «Софтэкс»Kommersant (RU) · 28 Sept 2026 · RU
- Путин одобрил сделку по продаже российской "дочки" Western UnionInterfax Russia (RU) · 28 Sept 2026 · RU
- Western Union probed in Australia over laundering controlsThe Straits Times — Asia · 01 Sept 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 28 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 04 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report04 Nov 2026
- Current report04 Nov 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report03 Nov 2026Other events
- Current report02 Oct 2026Other events
- Current report14 Aug 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report30 Jul 2026
- Current report30 Jul 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report23 Jul 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report24 Jun 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report18 May 2026Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / The Western Union Company · 20 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / The Western Union Company · 30 Jul 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.