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olivLaw · US equity research

Alight, Inc. ALIT

Services-Business Services, NEC · SIC 7389 · Vertical: Services-Business Services, NEC (SIC 7389)

12.75USD+25.99% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Alight is a technology-enabled services company that administers employee benefits, health, wealth and leave solutions for large organizations through its Alight Worklife platform. The company is in an operational transformation, with falling revenue and a plan for profitable growth built on artificial intelligence, so its progress in the coming period is worth following closely.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Alight, Inc. (ALIT) stock was 12.75 USD (+25.99% on the day), with market capitalisation 5.7 bn USD, dividend yield 0.39%, beta 1.31, 52-week range 7.95–50.20 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 500.0 m USD (−6.2% YoY), net income of -51.0 m USD, diluted EPS -1.93 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
5.7 bn USD
shares as of 02 Jul 2021
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
Diluted EPS TTM -2.81 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
-22.06%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
0.39%
Beta (2y)
1.31
Volatility (1y) 106%
52-week range
7.9550.20

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
68.2
strong (55–70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
7.47 – 11.19
above the upper band · %B 1.42 · band width 39.8%
SMA 50 / 200
10.90 / 15.71
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.06 / -0.51
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+45.9%−2.0%+47.9 pp—
3 months−11.6%−2.2%−9.5 pp—
6 months−31.9%+4.3%−36.2 pp—
Year to date−67.3%+10.6%−77.9 pp—
1 year−76.4%+10.5%−86.9 pp−5.1%
3 years−91.2%+73.7%−164.8 pp+1.0%
5 years−94.3%+61.7%−156.0 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−84.2%
05 Nov 2025 → 19 Oct 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−96.7%
09 Nov 2021 → 19 Oct 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
−43.6%
S&P 500 +10.1%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
500.0 m USD
−6.2% YoY
Net income
-51.0 m USD
unavailable YoY
Diluted EPS
-1.93
unavailable YoY
net / operating
-10.2% / -12.2%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue680.0 m548.0 m528.0 m533.0 m653.0 m534.0 m511.0 m500.0 m
Cost of revenue383.0 m351.0 m325.0 m327.0 m383.0 m347.0 m337.0 m334.0 m
Gross profit271.0 m171.0 m176.0 m178.0 m240.0 m156.0 m142.0 m135.0 m
SG&A151.0 m104.0 m130.0 m87.0 m114.0 m105.0 m109.0 m122.0 m
Operating income44.0 m-8.0 m-1.0 bn-1.3 bn-750.0 m-22.0 m-40.0 m-61.0 m
Depreciation & amortisation76.0 m75.0 m73.0 m75.0 m73.0 m73.0 m73.0 m74.0 m
Interest expense20.0 m22.0 m22.0 m24.0 m24.0 m24.0 m24.0 m25.0 m
Pre-tax income55.0 m-20.0 m-1.1 bn-1.3 bn-713.0 m-26.0 m-19.0 m-70.0 m
Income tax26.0 m-3.0 m-3.0 m-198.0 m220.0 m-7.0 m-9.0 m-19.0 m
Net income8.0 m-25.0 m-1.1 bn-1.1 bn-932.0 m-19.0 m-10.0 m-51.0 m
Diluted EPS0.02 ≈-0.05-40.61-40.52-0.46 ≈-0.04-0.38-1.93
Operating cash flow118.0 m73.0 m86.0 m ≈77.0 m ≈124.0 m79.0 m73.0 m ≈29.0 m ≈
Capex26.0 m29.0 m28.0 m ≈28.0 m ≈25.0 m26.0 m25.0 m ≈22.0 m ≈
Dividends paid21.0 m21.0 m22.0 m ≈22.0 m ≈21.0 m01.0 m ≈0 ≈
Share repurchases12.0 m20.0 m20.0 m ≈25.0 m ≈000 ≈0 ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Fiscal years

Fiscal year2019202020212022202320242025
Revenue2.6 bn2.7 bnunavailable2.2 bn2.4 bn2.3 bn2.3 bn
Revenue YoYunavailable+6.9%unavailableunavailable+8.1%−2.3%−3.0%
Net incomeunavailableunavailable-35.0 m-62.0 m-345.0 m-157.0 m-3.1 bn
Net income YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
Diluted EPSunavailableunavailable-0.08-0.14-0.70-0.29-5.87
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
net %unavailableunavailableunavailable-2.8%-14.5%-6.7%-136.9%
Free cash flowunavailableunavailableunavailable155.0 m246.0 m131.0 m250.0 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
273.0 m USD
Financial debt
2.0 bn USD
Net debt
1.7 bn USD
Equity
1.0 bn USD
Total assets
4.6 bn USD
Debt / equity
1.92x
Current ratio
1.31x
ROE
-115.6%
ROA
-48.5%
FCF margin
11.1%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
2.4 bn
2024
2.3 bn
2025
2.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
1.5 bn
2024
1.4 bn
2025
1.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
810.0 m
2024
794.0 m
2025
765.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

SG&A
2023
590.0 m
2024
585.0 m
2025
435.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
-81.0 m
2024
-90.0 m
2025
-3.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
301.0 m
2024
299.0 m
2025
296.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
220.0 m ≈
2024
209.0 m ≈
2025
-2.8 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
131.0 m
2024
103.0 m
2025
92.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
-337.0 m
2024
-148.0 m
2025
-3.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
-20.0 m
2024
-8.0 m
2025
16.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
-345.0 m
2024
-157.0 m
2025
-3.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
-0.70
2024
-0.29
2025
-5.87

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
489.5 m
2024
540.4 m
2025
527.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
324.0 m
2024
343.0 m
2025
273.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
435.0 m
2024
471.0 m
2025
387.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
2.8 bn
2024
1.3 bn
2025
1.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
331.0 m
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 08 May 2024verified

Goodwill
2023
3.2 bn
2024
3.2 bn
2025
83.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
3.1 bn
2024
2.9 bn
2025
2.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
10.8 bn
2024
8.2 bn
2025
4.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
325.0 m
2024
355.0 m
2025
253.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
25.0 m
2024
25.0 m
2025
20.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
2.8 bn
2024
2.0 bn
2025
2.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
2.2 bn
2024
892.0 m
2025
874.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
6.0 bn
2024
3.9 bn
2025
3.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
4.7 bn
2024
4.3 bn
2025
1.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
386.0 m
2024
252.0 m
2025
360.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
140.0 m
2024
121.0 m
2025
110.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
246.0 m ≈
2024
131.0 m ≈
2025
250.0 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-159.0 m
2024
836.0 m
2025
-123.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-231.0 m
2024
-1.1 bn
2025
-298.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
0
2024
21.0 m
2025
86.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
40.0 m
2024
167.0 m
2025
65.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
-3.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
0.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
-3.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
EPS growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
FCF growth (YoY)
90.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
30.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBITDA margin
-26.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBIT margin
-39.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
-46.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
9.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
-67.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
-20.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
-22.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROCE
-24.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
10.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
1.8 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
insufficient data
Debt / equity
2.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Interest coverage
-9.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
0.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
305.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
98.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
207.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
unavailable
insufficient data
Cash conversion
unavailable
insufficient data

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
61 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
63 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
5.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
7.5 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
unavailable
insufficient data
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
Earnings yield
-22.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
5.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
2.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
insufficient data
EV/EBIT
unavailable
insufficient data
EV/Sales
3.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/FCF
27.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
FCF yield
3.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
0.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
0.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • score weight coverage: 54.2% of at least 60%

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

12.75 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 5.7 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
5.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
P/B
5.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
insufficient data
ROE
-67.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
-46.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
-3.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
0.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Coverage and freshness

33/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 02 Jul 2021
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 03 Nov 2026
verified 923derived 68

Score by group

54% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

Low
5.01
USD per share
Mid
7.19
USD per share
High
10.91
USD per share
Price: 12.75 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -43.6% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -77.3% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: single method · 1 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 5.01 – 10.91 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)5.01 – 10.91 (Mid 7.19)
    WACC 8.2% · starting FCFF 288.5 m USD · terminal value share of EV 76%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 19.1%
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · input data missing
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Services-Business Services, NEC (SIC 7389)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 54.2% of at least 60%

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality-22.3%9 (vs peers)19%
Net margin · Quality-46.0%13 (vs peers)12%
FCF conversion · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth0.8%7 (on a fixed band)15%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheet-9.0x0 (on a fixed band)12%
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.4x51 (on a fixed band)8%
P/E (TTM) · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation3.6%45 (on a fixed band)15%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns0.4%6 (on a fixed band)12%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns10.6%100 (on a fixed band)8%

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet21/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial7/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality10/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns43/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation· partial45/100 · 1/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

Alight, Inc. / Delaware (ALIT). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.3 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -3.0%; net margin -46.0%; ROE -67.9%.

The estimated value range is 5.01–10.91 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 7.19 USD, the price of 12.75 USD leaves a potential of -43.6% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -77.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 54.2% of at least 60%).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Payout ratio (FCF): 10.6%

What contradicts it

  • ROIC: -22.3%
  • Net margin: -46.0%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 0.8%
  • Interest coverage: -9.0x
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.4%
  • The price is above the estimated value range

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA.

Versus the vertical median

Services-Business Services, NEC (SIC 7389) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
—
vertical median 25.8x
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 16.0x
P/S
2.6x
vertical median 2.4x
above median (+8.2%)
P/B
5.8x
vertical median 3.0x
above median (+96.8%)
ROE
-67.9%
vertical median 9.5%
below median (−813.2%)
Net margin
-46.0%
vertical median 5.8%
below median (−888.1%)
EBIT margin
-39.7%
vertical median 7.5%
below median (−627.6%)
Revenue YoY
-3.0%
vertical median 8.5%
below median (−135.2%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 1.8x
Dividend yield
0.4%
vertical median 1.1%
below median (−66.3%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
BABAAlibaba Group Holding Ltd195.6 bn131.610.3%10.1%+8.1%−33% / +41%
UBERUber Technologies, Inc136.0 bn14.638.4%17.3%+18.3%−24% / +18%
MELIMercadoLibre, Inc.84.3 bn45.227.5%5.3%+39.1%−20% / +3%
EBAYeBay Inc.52.1 bn25.846.6%16.9%+7.9%+43% / +189%
PYPLPayPal Holdings, Inc.48.4 bn11.123.8%13.8%+4.3%−7% / +1%
MSCIMsci Inc.45.7 bn33.9—40.3%+9.7%+13% / +23%
FISVFiserv, Inc.31.1 bn11.210.7%13.4%+3.6%−5% / −55%
CPAYCorpay, Inc26.7 bn24.730.5%22.7%+13.9%+37% / +69%
GPNGlobal Payments Inc.25.9 bn—-4.1%-9.1%−0.4%+29% / −16%
BRBroadridge Financial Solutions, Inc.20.8 bn20.340.2%13.9%+8.5%−19% / −5%
FISFidelity National Information Services, Inc.20.1 bn6.022.3%27.6%+5.4%−41% / −34%
RBARB Global, Inc17.3 bn39.18.8%10.0%+7.2%−5% / +46%
FICOFair Isaac Corp15.6 bn20.9—34.1%+15.9%−60% / −33%
CSGPCoStar Group, Inc.13.1 bn74.32.2%4.9%+18.7%−53% / −61%
HQYHealthequity, Inc.9.0 bn39.411.4%17.4%+9.5%+3% / +62%
WEXWEX Inc.5.9 bn15.535.6%14.0%+1.2%+21% / +2%
ALITAlight, Inc.5.7 bn—-67.9%-46.0%−3.0%−76% / −91%
XMTRXometry, Inc.5.2 bn—-3.9%-2.0%+25.9%+94% / +364%
TNETTrinet Group, Inc.3.1 bn18.1141.6%3.6%−0.9%+14% / −42%
CBZCBIZ, Inc.3.0 bn25.86.8%4.6%+52.1%−0% / +6%
FLYWFlywire Corporation2.7 bn83.84.2%4.8%+26.6%+56% / −6%
AHGAkso Health Group2.2 bn133.0-9.8%-135.0%−6.4%−11% / +56%
PAYSPaysign, Inc.863.9 m58.430.8%15.7%+40.5%+194% / +551%
PHRPhreesia, Inc.818.1 m77.13.1%2.1%+14.5%−36% / −14%
CASSCass Information Systems, Inc.704.7 m19.815.1%18.5%+5.3%+31% / +33%

1- and 3-year price returns: for ALIT from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

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Estimated price (USD)

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What moves the 3-year price the most

    AI analysis

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 04 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (03 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (03 Nov 2026).

    In brief

    Alight is a technology-enabled services company that administers employee benefits, health, wealth and leave solutions for large organizations through its Alight Worklife platform. The company is in an operational transformation, with falling revenue and a plan for profitable growth built on artificial intelligence, so its progress in the coming period is worth following closely 123.

    SWOT

    Strengths

    • Largely recurring revenue, long contracts and an integrated platform connected to hundreds of external partners 13.
    • Strong cash generation and liquidity that management describes as strong even during the transformation 3.
    • A diversified client base of large and mid-sized organizations across several sectors 1.

    Weaknesses

    • Falling revenue, with weaker net commercial activity and larger losses at renewals 13.
    • Significant debt and high borrowing costs that limit financial flexibility 3.
    • Large net losses in 2025, marked by a non-cash goodwill impairment 1.

    Opportunities

    • Developing AI-based functions could improve client retention and growth 13.
    • Deeper, more strategic client relationships supported by account management could support future performance 3.
    • Modernizing the Alight Worklife platform could attract new clients if results hold 3.

    Threats

    • Larger competitors with greater resources may move faster on technology or price more aggressively 1.
    • Rules on artificial intelligence and data protection could raise compliance costs 1.
    • A cybersecurity incident or cloud infrastructure disruption could affect clients and reputation 1.

    Risks

    • Revenue declinehigh

      Weak net commercial activity and renewal losses could continue to weigh on revenue 13.

    • Indebtednesshigh

      High total debt could limit financial options if performance does not improve 3.

    • Transformation executionmedium

      If the operational transformation is not completed on time, the expected benefits could be delayed or not materialize 1.

    • Artificial intelligence risksmedium

      Use of AI in benefits could lead to legal claims or reputational damage 1.

    • Technology disruptionslow

      Problems at data center or cloud providers could disrupt services for clients 1.

    Investment thesis

    What would need to be true (bull case)

    • If client retention improves and recurring revenue stays stable, the company could return to steady growth 13.
    • Strong cash generation could support debt reduction and platform investment 3.
    • The Alight Worklife platform, integrated with many partners, could become a competitive advantage if adoption grows 1.

    What would break the thesis

    • If revenue keeps falling, the 2026 outlook could be hard to reach 3.
    • High indebtedness could limit flexibility in a difficult economic period 3.
    • Larger competitors could win market share if Alight is slow to innovate 1.

    What to watch

    • Revenue and outlook for the third quarterQ3 2026
    • Trend in net commercial activity and client retention2026
    • Appointment of a permanent chief financial officer2026
    • Full-year 2026 guidance and annual resultsnext 10-K

    Products, market & competition

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 04 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (03 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (03 Nov 2026).

    The business

    Alight provides human capital management solutions to some of the largest and most complex organizations in the world, including the implementation and administration of employee benefits such as health, wealth and leaves 1. Solutions are used year-round, digitally, including through the cloud-based Alight Worklife platform 1. The company says it wants to be the pre-eminent employee experience partner, using data, analytics and AI to produce measurable outcomes 1.

    Revenue is largely recurring: fees are charged per participant, typically monthly or annually, under contracts of three to five years with renewal options 1. Revenue tends to be higher in the second half of the year because of the timing of annual benefits enrollment 1. In July 2024 Alight sold its Professional Services division and Payroll and HCM Outsourcing business, receiving 1.0 billion dollars in cash plus contingent notes 1.

    A 1-for-20 reverse stock split took effect on June 30, 2026, and the shares began trading on a split-adjusted basis on the NYSE under the symbol ALIT 2. For the second quarter of 2026 the company reported revenue of 511 million dollars and kept its full-year 2026 revenue outlook at 2078 to 2098 million dollars 3.

    Segments

    Employer Solutions

    Alight reports a single segment, Employer Solutions, which covers integrated benefits administration, healthcare navigation, financial wellbeing, leave of absence management and retiree healthcare 1. The segment is driven by the Alight Worklife platform and a full-service customer care center 1.

    Divested business

    The Professional Services division and the Payroll and HCM Outsourcing business, sold in July 2024, are no longer part of current operations 1. The company retained part of the sale price, contingent on the divested business performance in fiscal 2025 1.

    Market context

    The market for employee benefits solutions is competitive, rapidly evolving and fragmented, with global and national competitors 1. Demand depends on the business activity of clients and on the number of participants in their benefit plans 1.

    Clients include Fortune 500 companies, public institutions and mid-market businesses, and the company says its client base is well diversified across sectors 1. In the near term, revenue pressure is visible, and the 2026 outlook points to a revenue base of about 2 billion dollars 3.

    Trends

    • Artificial intelligence in benefitsmixed

      Alight is building generative AI into search, chat and document processing, which could improve user experience and client retention 13. Legal and reputational risks of using these technologies remain high 1.

    • Operational transformationmixed

      The company has insourced critical client service functions that had been outsourced, and management says its modernization investments are gaining early traction 3. If these changes are executed without disruption, they could support client retention 3.

    • Weaker new businessheadwind

      Revenue fell because of lower net commercial activity and larger losses at contract renewals in 2025, and these effects could continue into 2026 13.

    • Economic pressure on clientsheadwind

      A slowdown in economic activity or tighter client budgets could reduce the number of participants and revenue 1.

    Competitive position

    The company says no single competitor matches its full range of solutions, so competitors vary by product 1. Competition centres on product quality, technology, ease of use, data protection and price 1. Larger competitors may invest faster in technology or price more aggressively 1.

    Named primary competitors include ADP, Conduent, Empower, Fidelity, HealthEquity, Included Health, Transcarent, Voya and WTW 1. Competition could put pressure on prices and make client retention harder 1.

    • ADPADP

      Large provider of human resources and payroll solutions, named as a primary competitor of Alight 1.

    • ConduentCNDT

      Provider of benefits administration and business process outsourcing services, named as a competitor 1.

    • Fidelity

      Provider of savings and retirement benefits, named as a competitor in the benefits financial area 1.

    • WTWWTW

      Benefits and human resources consulting firm, named as a competitor 1.

    News & filings

    In the press

    The latest news item in our archive is from 18 Oct 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 03 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

    SEC filings

    Sources

    1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Alight, Inc. · 24 Feb 2026
    2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Alight, Inc. · 04 Aug 2026
    3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Alight, Inc. · 04 Aug 2026

    Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.