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olivLaw · US equity research

TriNet Group, Inc. TNET

Services-Business Services, NEC · SIC 7389 · Vertical: Services-Business Services, NEC (SIC 7389)

66.77USD+4.20% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

TriNet is a provider of HR services for small and medium-size businesses, combining PEO co-employment with ASO services, benefits, payroll and compliance. It processed payroll and payroll taxes of about 70 billion USD in 2025, while in 2026 revenue and average worksite employees have declined as the company tries to rebuild growth through sales-force expansion and AI investment.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, TriNet Group, Inc. (TNET) stock was 66.77 USD (+4.20% on the day), with market capitalisation 3.1 bn USD, P/E 18.1 on diluted EPS of 3.68 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.48%, beta 0.58, 52-week range 33.85–75.78 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 1.2 bn USD (−4.6% YoY), net income of 31.0 m USD (−8.8% YoY), diluted EPS 0.65 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
3.1 bn USD
shares as of 22 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
18.1
Diluted EPS TTM 3.68 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
5.51%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
0.48%
DPS 12m 0.32
Beta (2y)
0.58
Volatility (1y) 51%
52-week range
33.8575.78

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
47.8
neutral
Bollinger (20, 2)
61.58 – 76.09
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.36 · band width 21.1%
SMA 50 / 200
67.48 / 53.48
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.07 / 0.67
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+4.5%−2.0%+6.5 pp—
3 months−2.3%−2.2%−0.2 pp—
6 months+63.3%+4.3%+59.0 pp—
Year to date+12.9%+10.6%+2.4 pp—
1 year+15.1%+10.5%+4.6 pp−5.1%
3 years−35.9%+73.7%−109.6 pp+2.6%
5 years−37.1%+61.7%−98.8 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−46.8%
22 Jan 2026 → 23 Feb 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−74.7%
03 Apr 2024 → 23 Feb 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
−8.9%
S&P 500 +10.1%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
1.2 bn USD
−4.6% YoY
Net income
31.0 m USD
−8.8% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.65
−7.1% YoY
net / operating
2.6% / unavailable

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue1.3 bn1.3 bn1.2 bn1.2 bn1.2 bn1.2 bn1.2 bn1.2 bn
Research & development16.0 m20.0 m17.0 m18.0 m16.0 m19.0 m17.0 m20.0 m
Pre-tax income-37.0 m115.0 m51.0 m50.0 m1.0 m123.0 m74.0 m39.0 m
Income tax-14.0 m30.0 m14.0 m16.0 m2.0 m34.0 m21.0 m8.0 m
Net income-23.0 m85.0 m37.0 m34.0 m-1.0 m89.0 m53.0 m31.0 m
Diluted EPS-0.49 ≈1.710.770.70-0.02 ≈1.901.150.65
Operating cash flow65.0 m95.0 m75.0 m ≈72.0 m ≈61.0 m149.0 m88.0 m ≈80.0 m ≈
Capex18.0 m16.0 m18.0 m ≈17.0 m ≈18.0 m26.0 m21.0 m ≈27.0 m ≈
Dividends paid12.0 m12.0 m13.0 m13.0 m13.0 m13.0 m13.0 m14.0 m
Share repurchases28.0 m90.0 m1.0 m ≈31.0 m ≈61.0 m58.0 m18.0 m ≈18.0 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 45 percentile of its own 40-quarter history (min 10.9, median 18.4, max 30.1; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue3.5 bn3.9 bn4.0 bn4.5 bn4.9 bn5.0 bn5.1 bn5.0 bn
Revenue YoY+7.0%+10.1%+4.6%+12.5%+8.1%+1.8%+1.2%−0.9%
Net income192.0 m212.0 m272.0 m338.0 m355.0 m375.0 m173.0 m155.0 m
Net income YoY+7.9%+10.4%+28.3%+24.3%+5.0%+5.6%−53.9%−10.4%
Diluted EPS2.652.993.995.075.616.563.433.20
Diluted EPS YoY+6.4%+12.8%+33.4%+27.1%+10.7%+16.9%−47.7%−6.7%
net %5.5%5.5%6.7%7.4%7.2%7.5%3.4%3.1%
Free cash flow-147.0 m426.0 m510.0 m178.0 m441.0 m464.0 m201.0 m234.0 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
287.0 m USD
Financial debt
895.0 m USD
Net debt
608.0 m USD
Equity
54.0 m USD
Total assets
3.8 bn USD
Debt / equity
16.57x
Current ratio
1.09x
ROE
252.0%
ROA
3.9%
FCF margin
4.7%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
5.0 bn
2024
5.1 bn
2025
5.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Research & development
2023
65.0 m
2024
68.0 m
2025
71.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
469.0 m
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Feb 2024verified

Interest expense
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Feb 2023verified

Pre-tax income
2023
501.0 m
2024
226.0 m
2025
217.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
126.0 m
2024
53.0 m
2025
62.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
375.0 m
2024
173.0 m
2025
155.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
6.56
2024
3.43
2025
3.20

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
57.0 m
2024
50.0 m
2025
49.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
0.00
2024
0.25
2025
0.28

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
287.0 m
2024
360.0 m
2025
287.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
18.0 m
2024
32.0 m
2025
20.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
2.6 bn
2024
3.2 bn
2025
2.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
17.0 m
2024
10.0 m
2025
11.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
462.0 m
2024
461.0 m
2025
461.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
172.0 m
2024
156.0 m
2025
153.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
3.7 bn
2024
4.1 bn
2025
3.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Feb 2022verified

Long-term debt
2023
984.0 m
2024
908.0 m
2025
895.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
2.5 bn
2024
3.0 bn
2025
2.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
3.6 bn
2024
4.1 bn
2025
3.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
78.0 m †
2024
69.0 m †
2025
54.0 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
539.0 m
2024
279.0 m
2025
303.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
75.0 m
2024
78.0 m
2025
69.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
464.0 m ≈
2024
201.0 m ≈
2025
234.0 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-70.0 m
2024
153.0 m
2025
-43.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-540.0 m
2024
-207.0 m
2025
-49.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
0
2024
37.0 m
2025
52.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
1.1 bn
2024
183.0 m
2025
183.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
-0.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
0.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
4.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing
Net income growth (YoY)
-10.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
-24.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
-10.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
-6.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
-17.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
-4.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
16.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT margin
unavailable
input data missing
Net margin
3.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
5.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
141.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
5.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
unavailable
input data missing
ROCE
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (EPS)
8.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
18.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
568.0 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
6.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Interest coverage
unavailable
the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
0.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
378.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
92.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
286.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
166.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
unavailable
input data missing

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
1 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
3.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
3.6 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
17.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
18.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
5.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
23.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
0.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
0.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/FCF
10.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
FCF yield
9.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
0.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
6.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 57 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

66.77 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 3.1 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
3.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
18.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
23.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
141.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
3.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
-0.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
0.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Coverage and freshness

29/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 22 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 29 Oct 2026
verified 1893derived 129

Score by group

  • Valuation85
  • Balance sheet28
  • Quality64
  • Growth3
  • Returns98

Estimated value range

Low
51.43
USD per share
Mid
84.81
USD per share
High
124.58
USD per share
Price: 66.77 USD
The price is within the range
Potential to the central value: 27.0% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 21.3% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: single method · 1 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 51.43 – 124.58 USD.

Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: P/E51.43 – 124.58 (Mid 84.81)
    26 companies used · median multiple 23.0x · quartiles 14.0x – 33.9x
    ACN, AMTM, BR, CART, CPAY, DLO, EBAY, EXLS, FICO, FIS, FISV, GRAB, HQY, IMXI, LQDT, LYFT, MA, MELI, MSCI, OPRX, PYPL, QNST, RBA, RELY, UBER, WU
  • Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate3.61 – 4.86 (Mid 4.15)
    a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Services-Business Services, NEC (SIC 7389)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 57/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality3.6%29 (vs peers)10%
FCF conversion · Quality166.3%100 (on a fixed band)10%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth0.7%6 (on a fixed band)13%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth-17.1%0 (on a fixed band)13%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.1x28 (on a fixed band)7%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation18.1x72 (vs peers)17%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation9.4%100 (on a fixed band)13%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns6.8%97 (on a fixed band)10%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns18.5%100 (on a fixed band)7%

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet· partial28/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Growth3/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality64/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns98/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation85/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

TRINET GROUP, INC. (TNET). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 5.0 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -0.9%; net margin 3.6%; ROE 141.6%.

The estimated value range is 51.43–124.58 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 84.81 USD, the price of 66.77 USD leaves a potential of 27.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 21.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 57/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: balance. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • FCF conversion: 166.3%
  • P/E (TTM): 18.1x
  • FCF yield: 9.4%
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 6.8%
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 18.5%

What contradicts it

  • Net margin: 3.6%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 0.7%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: -17.1%
  • Current ratio: 1.1x

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA.

Versus the vertical median

Services-Business Services, NEC (SIC 7389) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
18.1x
vertical median 25.7x
below median (−29.4%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 16.8x
P/S
0.6x
vertical median 2.4x
below median (−73.5%)
P/B
23.0x
vertical median 2.8x
above median (+714.7%)
ROE
141.6%
vertical median 13.5%
above median (+952.4%)
Net margin
3.6%
vertical median 9.9%
below median (−64.0%)
EBIT margin
—
vertical median 11.6%
Revenue YoY
-0.9%
vertical median 10.3%
below median (−108.3%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 1.2x
Dividend yield
0.5%
vertical median 1.2%
below median (−61.4%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
UBERUber Technologies, Inc136.0 bn14.638.4%17.3%+18.3%−24% / +18%
MELIMercadoLibre, Inc.84.3 bn45.227.5%5.3%+39.1%−20% / +3%
EBAYeBay Inc.52.1 bn25.846.6%16.9%+7.9%+43% / +189%
PYPLPayPal Holdings, Inc.48.4 bn11.123.8%13.8%+4.3%−7% / +1%
MSCIMsci Inc.45.7 bn33.9—40.3%+9.7%+13% / +23%
FISVFiserv, Inc.31.1 bn11.210.7%13.4%+3.6%−5% / −55%
CPAYCorpay, Inc26.7 bn24.730.5%22.7%+13.9%+37% / +69%
GPNGlobal Payments Inc.25.9 bn—-4.1%-9.1%−0.4%+29% / −16%
BRBroadridge Financial Solutions, Inc.20.8 bn20.340.2%13.9%+8.5%−19% / −5%
FISFidelity National Information Services, Inc.20.1 bn6.022.3%27.6%+5.4%−41% / −34%
RBARB Global, Inc17.3 bn39.18.8%10.0%+7.2%−5% / +46%
FICOFair Isaac Corp15.6 bn20.9—34.1%+15.9%−60% / −33%
CARTMaplebear Inc.13.7 bn32.417.1%12.0%+10.8%+41% / +145%
HQYHealthequity, Inc.9.0 bn39.411.4%17.4%+9.5%+3% / +62%
LYFTLyft, Inc.7.1 bn2.7152.6%42.3%+9.2%−11% / +60%
EXLSExlservice Holdings, Inc.6.5 bn25.727.7%11.1%+13.6%+9% / +52%
RELYRemitly Global, Inc.5.7 bn19.532.2%16.9%+29.4%+100% / +26%
AMTMAmentum Holdings, Inc.5.4 bn26.74.5%1.4%+71.6%−22% / unavailable
DLODLocal Limited4.1 bn21.437.2%18.0%+46.6%+3% / −19%
TNETTrinet Group, Inc.3.1 bn18.1141.6%3.6%−0.9%+15% / −36%
FLYWFlywire Corporation2.7 bn83.84.2%4.8%+26.6%+56% / −6%
TICTIC Solutions, Inc.2.3 bn—-7.1%-5.6%unavailable+10% / unavailable
WUThe Western Union Company2.1 bn5.444.0%9.8%−3.8%−25% / −43%
LQDTLiquidity Services, Inc1.5 bn45.815.0%6.8%+31.2%+56% / +144%
RDWRRadware Ltd.1.4 bn73.36.1%6.7%+9.8%+44% / +116%

1- and 3-year price returns: for TNET from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
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Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
38.73
Total return -42% · Per year -42%
68.61
Total return 3% · Per year 3%
103.52
Total return 56% · Per year 56%
3 years
34.77
Total return -47% · Per year -19%
69.56
Total return 6% · Per year 2%
115.64
Total return 75% · Per year 21%
5 years
31.21
Total return -52% · Per year -14%
70.53
Total return 8% · Per year 2%
129.19
Total return 97% · Per year 15%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 17.39
  • Net margin± 12.17
  • Annual revenue growth± 10.37
  • Annual dilution± 1.02

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 30 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (29 Oct 2026).

In brief

TriNet is a provider of HR services for small and medium-size businesses, combining PEO co-employment with ASO services, benefits, payroll and compliance. It processed payroll and payroll taxes of about 70 billion USD in 2025, while in 2026 revenue and average worksite employees have declined as the company tries to rebuild growth through sales-force expansion and AI investment.

SWOT

Strengths

  • Scale across many states and recognition as the largest publicly traded US PEO support negotiation of benefits 1.
  • The model combines HR consulting, technology and sponsored benefits, supporting client retention and satisfaction scores 12.
  • The company generated operating cash and kept cost discipline, giving financial flexibility 2.

Weaknesses

  • Insurance costs make up a large share of expenses, and their variability can affect net income 1.
  • The worksite employee base declined, reducing revenue and showing client attrition 12.
  • Stockholders' equity fell in 2025 and debt remains significant, limiting room for manoeuvre 1.

Opportunities

  • Expanding the sales force and broker channels could restore growth in the fall selling season 2.
  • If AI and the new platform raise efficiency, the company could lower operating costs and improve retention 12.
  • The ASO service, with HR Plus, could attract clients that do not want co-employment 1.

Threats

  • Rising medical costs and service utilization could pressure the ICR and margins 1.
  • Weaker economic activity and a softer labour market could reduce client hiring and demand 1.
  • Changes in health insurance, employer and contractor laws could raise compliance costs 1.

Risks

  • Insurance cost volatilityhigh

    Variability in claims volume and treatment costs can push insurance costs above estimates, directly reducing profit 1.

  • Co-employer liabilitymedium

    As co-employer the company may be liable for wage and labour violations or for client non-payment, even without participating in the act 1.

  • Execution of transformationmedium

    If transformation projects are delayed or not accepted by clients, the company could miss financial goals and lose clients 1.

  • SMB economic volatilityhigh

    A recession or tariff-driven slowdown could reduce hiring and client numbers, weighing on revenue 1.

  • Debt and financial covenantsmedium

    Significant debt and restrictions under its terms could limit flexibility and may require refinancing if performance weakens 2.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If the company returns to growth through its sales force and broker channels, revenue could recover beyond the revised guidance 2.
  • Improved adjusted profit in the second quarter and raised guidance suggest repricing and cost discipline could keep supporting margins 2.
  • AI investments and the new platform could lower service costs and raise client retention over time 12.

What would break the thesis

  • If worksite employee counts keep falling, revenue could stay below expectations and margin pressure could persist 12.
  • Medical costs could keep outpacing insurance revenue, keeping the ICR elevated 1.
  • A recession could reduce SMB clients and force price renegotiation, hurting margins 1.

What to watch

  • Insurance cost ratio and trend in insurance costsQ3 2026
  • Average worksite employees and client retentionQ3 2026
  • Results of the fall selling season and sales-force growthQ4 2026
  • 2027 guidance and results of the TriNet Assistant launch2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 30 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (29 Oct 2026).

The business

TriNet offers HR solutions for small and medium-size businesses (SMBs) through technology-enabled services that include human capital expertise, employee benefits, payroll and payroll tax administration, risk mitigation and compliance consulting 1. The company focuses almost exclusively on the PEO model, in which it is co-employer of its clients' worksite employees, and also offers ASO services that do not involve co-employment 1. Nearly all revenue is generated within the United States and its territories 1.

Revenue comes from professional service revenues, insurance service revenues and interest income 1. Insurance service revenues are the largest part, so insurance costs, measured by the insurance cost ratio (ICR), are central to margins 1. For 2025, total revenues declined slightly and net income fell 10% 1.

The medium-term strategy aims to grow revenue through better benefits, a larger sales force and expanded distribution channels, improved client and employee experience and cost discipline 1. The company is launching TriNet Assistant, an AI-powered suite, and a next-generation cloud platform, with operations supported by a new office in Hyderabad, India 12.

Segments

PEO services

PEO services are the core business and operate on a co-employment model, in which TriNet takes on payroll, tax withholding responsibilities and TriNet-sponsored benefits 1. Revenue depends on the number of co-employed worksite employees, which declined in 2025 1.

ASO services

ASO services include payroll processing, benefits management and compliance without co-employment, with the HR Plus SaaS product combining software and significant service 1. The number of ASO users grew in 2025, partly offsetting attrition from legacy HRIS clients 1.

Market context

The target market is US small and medium-size businesses, which are more sensitive to economic cycles than large companies and can cut hiring or fail during weak periods 1. The largest PEO markets are California, New York, Florida, Texas and Massachusetts 1. The company describes itself as the largest publicly traded US company focused primarily on the PEO business by market capitalization as of December 31, 2025 1.

Market dynamics are shaped by healthcare costs and insurance pricing, as well as client hiring and AI, which could reduce headcount at client firms 1. Recovery in worksite employee counts could depend on the fall selling season, which management highlighted in its second-quarter release 2.

Trends

  • Rising medical costsheadwind

    Insurance costs for health and workers' compensation outpaced insurance service revenue growth in 2025, raising the ICR 1. If this trend continues, it could pressure margins, especially without pricing actions 1.

  • AI adoption and new platformtailwind

    Investments in AI, including TriNet Assistant, are presented as a source of efficiency and client retention, and management says the service experience has improved 12. Their success depends on client acceptance and project execution 1.

  • Shrinking worksite employee baseheadwind

    Average worksite employees fell 11% in the second quarter of 2026 as client attrition outpaced new additions 12. If the decline persists, it could weigh on future revenue 1.

  • Repricing and cost disciplinemixed

    The company repriced insurance services and maintained expense discipline, which supported adjusted profitability 12. The improved second-quarter profit and raised guidance suggest the effect could continue 2.

Competitive position

Competition includes other PEO and ASO providers, and TriNet differentiates through benefits scale, high-touch HR advisory and technology 1. The company cites increased competition as a risk that could affect its ability to win and keep clients 2.

Differentiation depends on sponsored benefit scale, advisory services and broker channels, and presence in large US markets matters for competition 1. Pricing must remain attractive to clients, which could limit margins if costs rise 2.

  • US PEO and ASO providers

    Private or smaller providers competing for the same SMB clients, referenced in the general competition discussion of the source.

  • Brokers and channel partners

    Broker channels are described as an important source of new clients and can also offer competing HR alternatives.

  • HCM software platforms

    Human capital and payroll software vendors offering self-service modules that can attract small clients.

  • Benefits and insurance providers

    Insurance carriers and benefits administrators are partners and also exert pricing pressure on the offering.

News & filings

In the press

No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / TriNet Group, Inc. · 12 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / TriNet Group, Inc. · 30 Jul 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.