olivLaw · European equity research
Banca Sistema S.p.A. BST.MI
Italy · Euronext Milan · ISIN IT0003173629 · Vertical: Listed companies from Italy
Banca Sistema is an Italian banking group specialised in factoring, pawn-backed lending and financing to public administration, with a significant part of its activity tied to Superbonus 110 tax credits. Total assets reached EUR 4.7 billion at end-2024, and risk factors in the loan book and tax-credit trading make the group's trajectory worth following closely.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Banca Sistema S.p.A. (BST.MI) stock was 1.54 EUR (+1.58% on the day), with beta 0.62, 52-week range 1.50–1.81 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 49.7
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 1.50 – 1.60
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.48 · band width 6.6%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 1.56 / 1.64
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.01 / -0.01
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −1.0% | −0.6% | −0.4 pp | — |
| 3 months | −3.7% | −4.2% | +0.4 pp | — |
| 6 months | −10.5% | +4.3% | −14.9 pp | — |
| Year to date | −8.4% | +7.5% | −15.9 pp | — |
| 1 year | −1.7% | +9.9% | −11.6 pp | −5.5% |
| 3 years | +30.2% | +49.8% | −19.7 pp | +8.9% |
| 5 years | −36.3% | +42.8% | −79.2 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
EPS unavailable in the issuer's structured filings (e.g. a partnership reports per unit, not per share).
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | unavailable | unavailable |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable |
| Net income | 16.5 m | 25.2 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +52.7% |
| Diluted EPS | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | unavailable | unavailable |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2024 · 31 Dec 2024
- Cash
- 93.4 m EUR
- Financial debt
- unavailable EUR
- Net debt
- unavailable EUR
- Equity
- unavailable EUR
- Total assets
- 4.7 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- unavailable
- ROA
- 0.5%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net income | 16.5 m | 25.2 m | esef· 24 Sept 2025verified |
Balance sheet · EUR
Cash flow · EUR
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 0 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 0.0% of at least 60%
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
0% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation method could be computed
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · input data missing
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · input data missing
no valuation method could be computed
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 0 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 0.0% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
BANCA SISTEMA S.P.A. (BST.MI). Latest full fiscal year: 2024; data up to 2024-12-31.
Financial indicators are unavailable.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 0 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 0.0% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
What contradicts it
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net margin, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, Current ratio, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Italy · same country · compared with 40 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DLG.MIDe' Longhi S.p.a. | 6.8 bn | 21.5 | 15.4% | 8.4% | +8.7% | +24% / +60% |
| ACE.MIAcea S.p.a. | 4.6 bn | 9.6 | 18.2% | 16.6% | +0.2% | −4% / +73% |
| DIA.MIDiasorin S.p.a. | 4.3 bn | 28.3 | 9.2% | 13.0% | +0.8% | +31% / −7% |
| CRL.MICarel Industries S.p.a. | 2.9 bn | 39.5 | 16.1% | 11.7% | +8.7% | +3% / +10% |
| AMP.MIAmplifon S.p.a. | 2.7 bn | 29.9 | 8.5% | 3.8% | −0.6% | −9% / −58% |
| ELN.MIEl.en. - S.p.a. | 1.3 bn | 30.3 | 10.9% | 7.3% | +4.2% | +26% / +73% |
| CMB.MICembre S.p.a. | 1.3 bn | 27.0 | 20.6% | 18.9% | +6.7% | +11% / +108% |
| COM.MIComer Industries S.p.a. | 1.3 bn | 18.6 | 12.8% | 7.1% | −23.0% | +8% / +64% |
| DNR.MIIndustrie De Nora S.p.a. | 1.1 bn | 13.4 | 8.6% | 9.4% | +1.4% | −22% / −62% |
| ARN.MIAlerion Clean Power S.p.a. In Forma Abbreviata Alerion S.p.a. | 969.2 m | 10.4 | 23.5% | 41.0% | +1.8% | −5% / −23% |
| AVIO.MIAvio S.p.a. | 883.6 m | 86.8 | 2.1% | 1.8% | +21.5% | +18% / +291% |
| CIR.MICir S.p.a. - Compagnie Industriali Riunite | 783.3 m | 6.0 | 17.1% | 7.3% | +1.6% | +4% / +72% |
| ASC.MIAscopiave S.p.a. | 646.3 m | 18.0 | 4.2% | 17.5% | +13.4% | −8% / +33% |
| AC5.MIAcinque S.p.a. | 412.6 m | 19.6 | 4.1% | 3.6% | +0.2% | −6% / +8% |
| BAN.MIBasic Net S.p.a. | 348.0 m | — | -4.9% | -3.5% | +0.4% | −30% / +5% |
| ADB.MIAeroporto Guglielmo Marconi Di Bologna S.p.a. | 324.7 m | 13.1 | 11.1% | 13.7% | +9.2% | −2% / +12% |
| CAI.MICairo Communication S.p.a. | 289.2 m | 6.4 | 8.1% | 4.4% | −1.3% | −22% / +28% |
| ECNL.MIAquafil S.p.a. | 129.6 m | — | -3.2% | -0.9% | −3.9% | −1% / −52% |
| BEC.MIB&C Speakers S.p.a. | 118.7 m | 11.7 | 18.5% | 10.2% | −1.3% | −26% / −32% |
| ABT.MIAbitare In S.p.a. | 76.0 m | 276.0 | 0.4% | 0.4% | +39.8% | −6% / −47% |
| ELC.MIElica S.p.a. | 64.3 m | — | -7.8% | -2.2% | +1.9% | −34% / −48% |
| DEX.MIDexelance S.p.a. | 50.7 m | 2.8 | 11.0% | 5.4% | +12.6% | −63% / −78% |
| CLE.MIClass Editori S.p.a. | 35.1 m | — | -29.2% | -3.8% | −0.7% | −9% / +106% |
| CLF.MICaleffi - S.p.a. | 11.6 m | 5.2 | 10.9% | 3.8% | −2.5% | −4% / −10% |
| AEF.MIAeffe S.p.a. | 10.1 m | 0.5 | 21.9% | 7.7% | −21.3% | −59% / −86% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for BST.MI from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Banca Sistema is an Italian banking group specialised in factoring, pawn-backed lending and financing to public administration, with a significant part of its activity tied to Superbonus 110 tax credits. Total assets reached EUR 4.7 billion at end-2024, and risk factors in the loan book and tax-credit trading make the group's trajectory worth following closely.
SWOT
Strengths
- High liquidity, measured by the LCR, and a growing base of time deposits provide relatively stable funding.
- Specialisation in factoring, pawn lending and public-administration finance gives niche positions with accumulated experience.
- The recent acquisition of a pawn-lending operator brought integration into a growing segment.
Weaknesses
- Non-performing loans rose sharply in 2024 and their coverage fell, pointing to weaker asset quality.
- Reliance on Superbonus tax credits creates a concentrated and hard-to-predict exposure.
- Dividends are currently blocked, limiting direct returns to shareholders.
Opportunities
- Growth in pawn lending and SME finance could offset the decline in factoring.
- Tax-credit securitisation structures, where the bank acts as arranger, could generate fee income.
- Consolidation in niche segments could raise market share if asset quality stabilises.
Threats
- The new default rules and the reclassification of past-due loans could raise provisions.
- Legislative changes affecting tax credits could reduce the value of assets held.
- Higher capital requirements and the countercyclical buffer could limit lending capacity.
Risks
- Loan qualityhigh
Non-performing loans rose considerably in 2024 and provision coverage fell, which could generate additional losses if recoveries are weaker 1.
- Superbonus tax-credit exposurehigh
The book value of tax credits bought for trading can be affected by regulatory changes or low liquidity 1.
- New default definitionmedium
Reclassification of past-due loans in 2025 could substantially change the reported indicators 1.
- Wholesale fundingmedium
A higher share of wholesale funding can raise costs and sensitivity to market conditions 1.
- Capital requirementsmedium
Higher capital requirements and the countercyclical buffer could limit portfolio growth if own funds do not grow enough 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the bank keeps its high liquidity and continues attracting time deposits, funding could stay stable even in difficult periods 1.
- If pawn lending and SME finance keep growing, they could offset the decline in factoring 1.
- If tax-credit trading delivers income above expectations, group profitability could recover faster than in 2024 1.
What would break the thesis
- If non-performing loans keep rising and coverage stays weak, provisions could significantly reduce profit 1.
- If the value of tax credits falls or their liquidity declines, the group could record trading losses 1.
- If capital requirements rise faster than own funds, lending capacity could be constrained 1.
What to watch
- Evolution of non-performing loans and provision coverage after the reclassification of past-due loansQ1 2025
- Value and evolution of Superbonus tax credits held for trading2025
- Share of wholesale funding and its cost relative to time depositsnext annual report
- Timing of a possible resumption of dividend distribution, depending on own funds2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The Banca Sistema group builds its activity around factoring, CQS/CQP loans through its agent network, pawn lending (via the Kruso Kapital group) and loans to SMEs. Total assets were EUR 4.7 billion at 31 December 2024, up 2.9% on the prior year 1. The group also includes recent acquisitions, such as Pignus - Credito Economico Popular, consolidated in November 2024 1.
On capital, fully loaded own funds were EUR 261 million at 31 December 2024, and dividend distribution is currently prohibited 1. The 2024 group profit was EUR 25.2 million 1.
Segments
Market context
The group operates in non-bank corporate financing, factoring and lending to the public administration in Italy. Past-due items in the public-administration factoring book are described as physiological for the sector 1. The gross non-performing share rose to 12.0% of the portfolio, showing the segment's sensitivity to the new default rules 1.
The regulatory environment matters: the new default definition and the reclassification of past-due loans from Q1 2025 could change asset-quality indicators 1. Capital requirements rose from 31 March 2024, and a countercyclical buffer of up to 0.5% applies from 31 December 2024 1.
Trends
- New default definitionheadwind
Applying the new default definition raised non-performing loans and reduced their coverage, which could weigh on profitability if the trend continues 1.
- Growth in time depositstailwind
Time deposits from clients rose and delivered positive net collection, supporting the group's funding if the trend holds 1.
- Volatility of tax creditsmixed
The value and liquidity of Superbonus tax credits can vary widely, so trading results could be harder to forecast 1.
Competitive position
Banca Sistema competes with other Italian banks and factoring and pawn-lending companies in corporate lending to small and mid-sized firms and in public-administration lending. Not all competitors are listed, and the sources do not give a quantified market position for the group 1.
The group differentiates through niche specialisation, such as public-administration factoring and pawn lending, rather than through scale. The source gives no comparative data against competitors 1.
- Italian retail and corporate banks
Compete on corporate lending and client deposits, with a broader deposit base than the group.
- Specialised factoring companies
Compete directly for trade receivables bought from suppliers, the segment where the group holds most of its loan book.
- Pawn-lending operators
Compete for asset-backed lending, a segment in which the group grew through Kruso Kapital.
- Financial institutions buying tax credits
Compete for Superbonus tax-credit purchases, where the group has significant exposure.
News & filings
In the press
- Russia’s Sistema investment firm plans to expand investments in various countriesTASS (RU, EN) · 05 Nov 2026 · EN
- Nauja prognozė : Saulės sistema gali būti sunaikinta 100 kartų greičiau , nei manytaSurge — GDELT DOC · 17 Oct 2026 · RO
- EU adds AFK Sistema to sanctions listsTASS (RU, EN) · 23 Jul 2026 · RO
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202424 Sept 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2024-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Banca Sistema S.p.A. · 31 Dec 2024
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.