olivLaw · European equity research
ERG S.p.A. ERG.MI
Italy · Euronext Milan · ISIN IT0001157020 · Vertical: Listed companies from Italy
ERG is an independent operator of renewable energy active in several European countries and, since 2024, in the United States. The group has focused on wind and solar after exiting thermoelectric activities, and its adjusted gross operating margin of 535 million euro in 2024 shows the scale of the business.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, ERG S.p.A. (ERG.MI) stock was 22.08 EUR (−0.36% on the day), with dividend yield 4.53%, beta 0.31, 52-week range 20.62–24.94 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 50.0
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 21.52 – 22.58
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.53 · band width 4.8%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 22.23 / 22.63
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.10 / -0.11
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −1.3% | −0.6% | −0.6 pp | — |
| 3 months | +1.6% | −4.2% | +5.7 pp | — |
| 6 months | −3.2% | +4.3% | −7.6 pp | — |
| Year to date | +0.5% | +7.5% | −7.1 pp | — |
| 1 year | −3.0% | +9.9% | −12.9 pp | −6.1% |
| 3 years | −6.6% | +49.8% | −56.4 pp | +7.7% |
| 5 years | −28.1% | +42.8% | −70.9 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
EPS unavailable in the issuer's structured filings (e.g. a partnership reports per unit, not per share).
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 713.8 m | 740.9 m | 738.1 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +3.8% | −0.4% |
| Net income | 378.9 m | 178.7 m | 187.1 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −52.9% | +4.7% |
| Diluted EPS | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | 53.1% | 24.1% | 25.3% |
| Free cash flow | 353.8 m | 582.4 m | 256.1 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2024 · 31 Dec 2024
- Cash
- 601.0 m EUR
- Financial debt
- unavailable EUR
- Net debt
- unavailable EUR
- Equity
- 2.2 bn EUR
- Total assets
- 6.3 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 1.35x
- ROE
- 8.6%
- ROA
- 3.2%
- FCF margin
- 34.7%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 713.8 m | 740.9 m | 738.1 m | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Operating income | 220.8 m | 304.2 m | 252.6 m | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Interest expense | 112.2 m | 217.2 m | 108.9 m | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Pre-tax income | 186.5 m | 290.1 m | 223.4 m | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Income tax | 97.6 m | 74.1 m | 33.7 m | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Net income | 378.9 m | 178.7 m | 187.1 m | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Dividend per share | — | 1.00 | 1.00 | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 392.8 m | 467.6 m | 601.0 m | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Inventories | 17.6 m | 20.0 m | 23.4 m | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Current assets | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 2.1 bn | 2.4 bn | 3.0 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Goodwill | 408.0 m | 412.5 m | 454.0 m | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Total assets | 5.2 bn | 5.2 bn | 6.3 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Current liabilities | 746.4 m | 444.6 m | 983.4 m | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Total liabilities | 3.2 bn | 3.1 bn | 4.1 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Equity | 2.1 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.2 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 661.9 m | 882.5 m | 484.2 m | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Capex | 308.1 m | 300.1 m | 228.1 m | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Free cash flow | 353.8 m ≈ | 582.4 m ≈ | 256.1 m ≈ | esef· 15 Apr 2025derived |
| Investing cash flow | 648.0 m | -316.5 m | -707.1 m | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Financing cash flow | -1.8 bn | -491.2 m | 356.4 m | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Dividends paid | 139.1 m | 154.0 m | 152.1 m | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 61.4 m | 47.3 m | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 5 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
27% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 13.60 – 18.55 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · input data missing
- Dividend discount (DDM)13.60 – 18.55 (Mid 15.69)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 25.3% | 90 (vs peers) | 23% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 136.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 23% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 2.3x | 13 (on a fixed band) | 23% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.4x | 46 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 59.4% | 87 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet26/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality95/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial87/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
ERG S.P.A. (ERG.MI). Latest full fiscal year: 2024; data up to 2024-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 738.1 m EUR in 2024; YoY growth -0.4%; net margin 25.3%; ROE 8.7%.
The estimated value range is 13.60–18.55 EUR per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 15.69 EUR, the price of 22.08 EUR leaves a potential of -28.9% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -40.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 25.3%
- FCF conversion: 136.9%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 59.4%
What contradicts it
- Interest coverage: 2.3x
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Italy · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DLG.MIDe' Longhi S.p.a. | 6.8 bn | 21.5 | 15.4% | 8.4% | +8.7% | +24% / +60% |
| ACE.MIAcea S.p.a. | 4.6 bn | 9.6 | 18.2% | 16.6% | +0.2% | −4% / +73% |
| DIA.MIDiasorin S.p.a. | 4.3 bn | 28.3 | 9.2% | 13.0% | +0.8% | +31% / −7% |
| CRL.MICarel Industries S.p.a. | 2.9 bn | 39.5 | 16.1% | 11.7% | +8.7% | +3% / +10% |
| AMP.MIAmplifon S.p.a. | 2.7 bn | 29.9 | 8.5% | 3.8% | −0.6% | −9% / −58% |
| CMB.MICembre S.p.a. | 1.3 bn | 27.0 | 20.6% | 18.9% | +6.7% | +11% / +108% |
| COM.MIComer Industries S.p.a. | 1.3 bn | 18.6 | 12.8% | 7.1% | −23.0% | +8% / +64% |
| DNR.MIIndustrie De Nora S.p.a. | 1.1 bn | 13.4 | 8.6% | 9.4% | +1.4% | −22% / −62% |
| ARN.MIAlerion Clean Power S.p.a. In Forma Abbreviata Alerion S.p.a. | 969.2 m | 10.4 | 23.5% | 41.0% | +1.8% | −5% / −23% |
| AVIO.MIAvio S.p.a. | 883.6 m | 86.8 | 2.1% | 1.8% | +21.5% | +18% / +291% |
| CIR.MICir S.p.a. - Compagnie Industriali Riunite | 783.3 m | 6.0 | 17.1% | 7.3% | +1.6% | +4% / +72% |
| ASC.MIAscopiave S.p.a. | 646.3 m | 18.0 | 4.2% | 17.5% | +13.4% | −8% / +33% |
| AC5.MIAcinque S.p.a. | 412.6 m | 19.6 | 4.1% | 3.6% | +0.2% | −6% / +8% |
| BAN.MIBasic Net S.p.a. | 348.0 m | — | -4.9% | -3.5% | +0.4% | −30% / +5% |
| ADB.MIAeroporto Guglielmo Marconi Di Bologna S.p.a. | 324.7 m | 13.1 | 11.1% | 13.7% | +9.2% | −2% / +12% |
| CAI.MICairo Communication S.p.a. | 289.2 m | 6.4 | 8.1% | 4.4% | −1.3% | −22% / +28% |
| ECNL.MIAquafil S.p.a. | 129.6 m | — | -3.2% | -0.9% | −3.9% | −1% / −52% |
| BEC.MIB&C Speakers S.p.a. | 118.7 m | 11.7 | 18.5% | 10.2% | −1.3% | −26% / −32% |
| ABT.MIAbitare In S.p.a. | 76.0 m | 276.0 | 0.4% | 0.4% | +39.8% | −6% / −47% |
| ELC.MIElica S.p.a. | 64.3 m | — | -7.8% | -2.2% | +1.9% | −34% / −48% |
| DEX.MIDexelance S.p.a. | 50.7 m | 2.8 | 11.0% | 5.4% | +12.6% | −63% / −78% |
| CLE.MIClass Editori S.p.a. | 35.1 m | — | -29.2% | -3.8% | −0.7% | −9% / +106% |
| CLF.MICaleffi - S.p.a. | 11.6 m | 5.2 | 10.9% | 3.8% | −2.5% | −4% / −10% |
| AEF.MIAeffe S.p.a. | 10.1 m | 0.5 | 21.9% | 7.7% | −21.3% | −59% / −86% |
| BC.MIBrunello Cucinelli S.p.a. | 6.2 m | 0.0 | 26.5% | 75,526.1% | 0.0% | −5% / +15% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for ERG.MI from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
ERG is an independent operator of renewable energy active in several European countries and, since 2024, in the United States. The group has focused on wind and solar after exiting thermoelectric activities, and its adjusted gross operating margin of 535 million euro in 2024 shows the scale of the business 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- Leading position in Italian wind and a diversified European presence.
- Renewables-focused business model after exiting thermoelectric.
- In-house maintenance for part of the parks.
Weaknesses
- Revenues are sensitive to weaker wind and sun, which vary from year to year.
- Lower sale prices reduced margins in several countries.
- Adjusted net debt is high relative to gross operating margin.
Opportunities
- Development of the US portfolio could add projects through the Apex partnership.
- New UK ancillary services mechanisms could open extra revenue.
- PPA contracts with corporate customers could secure long-term revenue.
Threats
- Price caps or extraordinary taxes may limit revenues in some countries.
- Grid curtailment in Northern Ireland may reduce sold output.
- Changes to the US tax regime could affect production tax credits.
Risks
- Wind and irradiation variabilityhigh
Production depends on weather, and actual results could differ from estimates if wind or sun is weaker 1.
- Energy priceshigh
Sale prices could fall more than expected, as happened in 2024 1.
- Regulation and special taxesmedium
Measures such as the Romanian extraordinary tax or UK regulatory changes may alter revenues 1.
- US integrationmedium
Expansion in the United States carries execution risk and dependence on tax credits and PPA contracts 1.
- Indebtednessmedium
The level of adjusted net debt could limit flexibility for investment if margins decline 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Leading wind position in Italy, combined with the estimated growth in adjusted gross operating margin for 2025, could support a recovery if wind and price conditions improve 1.
- The US entry and projects under development could add growth if they turn into installed capacity 1.
- If UK investments and scheduled parks meet their timelines, revenues could rise in 2025 and 2026 1.
What would break the thesis
- Lower market prices and restrictive regulation in several countries could keep margins under pressure 1.
- Dependence on wind and sun makes results volatile, and a weak year could reduce revenues again 1.
- High net debt and large investments could limit distributions and financial flexibility if results do not follow estimates 1.
What to watch
- Delivery of the adjusted gross operating margin guidance of 540 to 600 million euro2025
- Evolution of investments of 190 to 240 million euro and of scheduled parks2025-2026
- Results of the US portfolio after integration into the group2025
- Final adjusted net debt compared with the estimate of 1,850 to 1,950 million euroend 2025
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
ERG S.p.A. is an independent operator of clean energy from renewable sources, present in nine European countries and, from April 2024, in the United States. The group is the first wind operator in Italy and among the top ten in European onshore wind, with solar activities in Italy, France and Spain 1. Total installed renewable capacity was 3,845 MW, of which 3,184 MW wind and 661 MW solar 1. After the sale of the thermoelectric business at the end of 2023, the company became a pure wind and solar model 1.
Industrial and commercial management is concentrated in the subsidiary ERG Power Generation S.p.A., which handles energy management and sales for all technologies, with long-term contracts to secure production 1. The same subsidiary also runs operation and maintenance of wind and solar plants, including in-house maintenance of Italian parks and part of those in France and Germany 1.
For 2025 the group estimates adjusted gross operating margin between 540 and 600 million euro, above the 2024 result 1. Investments are expected between 190 and 240 million euro, including the recent UK acquisition and parks due to come online between 2025 and 2026 1.
Segments
Wind France
In France, 2024 production was 1210 GWh, down from 2023 due to lower wind 1. Adjusted revenue fell to 100 million euro because of lower prices and volumes, partly offset by the early-2024 acquisition and new greenfield parks 1. The net unit wind price was 82 euro/MWh 1.
Wind Germany
In Germany, production fell to 568 GWh due to weaker wind in the fourth quarter, with a sharp drop in revenue and a lower net unit price 1. Adjusted gross operating margin declined, and investments were mainly linked to the repowering of one park 1.
United States
Entry into the US came through the partnership with Apex Clean Energy, with a wind and solar portfolio of 317 MW and a cooperation agreement for about 1 GW of new projects under development 1. Revenue also includes the production tax credit, which strongly affects margins in this area 1.
Market context
The markets in which ERG operates are linked to energy sale prices, support mechanisms and different regulatory regimes, from the UK balancing system to green certificates in Romania and from Bulgarian reference prices to price caps in Poland 1. In Romania, from April 2024, an extraordinary tax obliged plants to sell via PPA at 400 lei/MWh, about 80 euro/MWh 1.
The UK ancillary services market has opened to new resources, and Northern Ireland's grid has high curtailment of renewable output, which could affect park revenues if the announced measures are successfully applied 1.
Trends
- Lower market pricesheadwind
Falling market prices reduced unit revenues in several countries in 2024, especially in France and Spain 1.
- Grid cost rules in Germanymixed
In Germany, the new framework could redistribute grid costs to consumers through compensation for regions with many renewables 1.
- UK grid investmenttailwind
The Beyond 2030 plan foresees major UK grid investment and connection of much offshore wind, which could support long-term projects 1.
- US production tax creditmixed
The production tax credit contributes significantly to US revenues but depends on the future tax regime 1.
Competitive position
ERG competes in energy markets where prices are set by supply and demand, and PPA agreements with corporate customers are an important part of the commercial strategy 1. Competitors are not explicitly identified in the source provided.
ERG's position depends on its ability to secure long-term contracts and to take part in new market mechanisms such as UK balancing services 1.
- Other European wind and solar developers
The source does not name direct competitors; these operate in the same activity area.
- Independent US renewable developers
The US market is new for ERG, and competition comes from local wind and solar project developers.
- Utilities with renewable assets
Competition may come from integrated companies that own renewables alongside grids and distribution.
- Corporate PPA buyers
They are not direct competitors but influence the terms of contracts ERG negotiates.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202415 Apr 2025
- Annual report 202302 Apr 2024
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2024-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / ERG S.p.A. · 31 Dec 2024
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.