olivLaw · European equity research
Gefran S.p.A. GE.MI
Italy · Euronext Milan · ISIN IT0003203947 · Vertical: Listed companies from Italy
Gefran is an Italian maker of industrial sensors and automation components with a global footprint. In 2025 the sensors segment grew faster than the group average, while automation components stalled under investment uncertainty and currency pressure.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Gefran S.p.A. (GE.MI) stock was 11.00 EUR (+0.46% on the day), with market capitalisation 157.3 m EUR, P/E 15.9 on diluted EPS of 0.69 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 3.91%, beta 0.36, 52-week range 9.88–12.50 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 41.5
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 10.82 – 11.63
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.22 · band width 7.3%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 11.68 / 11.03
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.18 / -0.17
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −6.0% | −0.6% | −5.3 pp | — |
| 3 months | −4.8% | −4.2% | −0.6 pp | — |
| 6 months | −6.0% | +4.3% | −10.3 pp | — |
| Year to date | +3.3% | +7.5% | −4.2 pp | — |
| 1 year | −7.6% | +9.9% | −17.5 pp | −6.1% |
| 3 years | +48.4% | +49.8% | −1.4 pp | +7.7% |
| 5 years | −4.3% | +42.8% | −47.2 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 10.6, median 11.8, max 15.4; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 135.2 m | 134.8 m | 141.2 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −0.3% | +4.8% |
| Net income | 11.7 m | 11.1 m | 9.9 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −4.4% | −11.4% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.82 | 0.78 | 0.69 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −4.9% | −11.5% |
| net % | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.0% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 53.1 m EUR
- Financial debt
- 11.7 m EUR
- Net debt
- -41.4 m EUR
- Equity
- 100.8 m EUR
- Total assets
- 163.5 m EUR
- Debt / equity
- 0.12x
- Current ratio
- 2.20x
- ROE
- 9.9%
- ROA
- 6.1%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 135.2 m | 134.8 m | 141.2 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Operating income | 16.6 m | 15.1 m | 14.3 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 16.8 m | 15.4 m | 13.6 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Income tax | 4.9 m | 4.2 m | 3.8 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Net income | 11.7 m | 11.1 m | 9.9 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.82 | 0.78 | 0.69 | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.40 | 0.42 | 0.43 | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 57.2 m | 59.6 m | 53.1 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Inventories | 17.8 m | 15.7 m | 15.2 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Current assets | 104.7 m | 102.8 m | 98.6 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 38.4 m | 37.6 m | 38.5 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 5.9 m | 6.1 m | 5.9 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 6.4 m | 7.2 m | 8.1 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Total assets | 165.2 m | 162.7 m | 163.5 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 21.4 m | 16.3 m | 11.7 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 43.5 m | 40.6 m | 44.8 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 71.2 m | 63.4 m | 62.7 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Equity | 93.9 m | 99.3 m | 100.8 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 14.2 m | 14.3 m | 14.3 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 20.1 m | 26.7 m | 23.3 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Investing cash flow | -8.1 m | -6.3 m | -14.1 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 636.0 k | -17.9 m | -14.6 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 5.7 m | 6.0 m | 6.1 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 1.3 m | 0 | — | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 5 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 37.5% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 157.3 m EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
38% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 4.34 – 15.77 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E4.34 – 15.77 (Mid 9.15)20 companies used · median multiple 13.3x · quartiles 6.3x – 22.9xAC5.MI, ACE.MI, ADB.MI, AEF.MI, AMP.MI, ARN.MI, ASC.MI, BC.MI, BEC.MI, CAI.MI, CIR.MI, CLF.MI, CMB.MI, COM.MI, CRL.MI, CY4.MI, DEX.MI, DIA.MI, DLG.MI, DNR.MI
- Dividend discount (DDM)5.85 – 7.97 (Mid 6.75)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 37.5% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 18.0% | 93 (vs peers) | 28% |
| Net margin · Quality | 7.0% | 51 (vs peers) | 17% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.2x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 15.9x | 50 (vs peers) | 28% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 3.9% | 55 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality77/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial55/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial50/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
GEFRAN S.P.A. (GE.MI). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 141.2 m EUR in 2025; YoY growth 4.8%; net margin 7.0%; ROE 9.9%.
The estimated value range is 5.09–11.87 EUR per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 7.95 EUR, the price of 11.00 EUR leaves a potential of -27.8% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -38.4% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 37.5% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 18.0%
- Current ratio: 2.2x
What contradicts it
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Italy · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DLG.MIDe' Longhi S.p.a. | 6.8 bn | 21.5 | 15.4% | 8.4% | +8.7% | +24% / +60% |
| ACE.MIAcea S.p.a. | 4.6 bn | 9.6 | 18.2% | 16.6% | +0.2% | −4% / +73% |
| DIA.MIDiasorin S.p.a. | 4.3 bn | 28.3 | 9.2% | 13.0% | +0.8% | +31% / −7% |
| CRL.MICarel Industries S.p.a. | 2.9 bn | 39.5 | 16.1% | 11.7% | +8.7% | +3% / +10% |
| AMP.MIAmplifon S.p.a. | 2.7 bn | 29.9 | 8.5% | 3.8% | −0.6% | −9% / −58% |
| CMB.MICembre S.p.a. | 1.3 bn | 27.0 | 20.6% | 18.9% | +6.7% | +11% / +108% |
| COM.MIComer Industries S.p.a. | 1.3 bn | 18.6 | 12.8% | 7.1% | −23.0% | +8% / +64% |
| DNR.MIIndustrie De Nora S.p.a. | 1.1 bn | 13.4 | 8.6% | 9.4% | +1.4% | −22% / −62% |
| ARN.MIAlerion Clean Power S.p.a. In Forma Abbreviata Alerion S.p.a. | 969.2 m | 10.4 | 23.5% | 41.0% | +1.8% | −5% / −23% |
| AVIO.MIAvio S.p.a. | 883.6 m | 86.8 | 2.1% | 1.8% | +21.5% | +18% / +291% |
| CIR.MICir S.p.a. - Compagnie Industriali Riunite | 783.3 m | 6.0 | 17.1% | 7.3% | +1.6% | +4% / +72% |
| ASC.MIAscopiave S.p.a. | 646.3 m | 18.0 | 4.2% | 17.5% | +13.4% | −8% / +33% |
| AC5.MIAcinque S.p.a. | 412.6 m | 19.6 | 4.1% | 3.6% | +0.2% | −6% / +8% |
| BAN.MIBasic Net S.p.a. | 348.0 m | — | -4.9% | -3.5% | +0.4% | −30% / +5% |
| ADB.MIAeroporto Guglielmo Marconi Di Bologna S.p.a. | 324.7 m | 13.1 | 11.1% | 13.7% | +9.2% | −2% / +12% |
| CAI.MICairo Communication S.p.a. | 289.2 m | 6.4 | 8.1% | 4.4% | −1.3% | −22% / +28% |
| GE.MIGefran S.p.a. | 157.3 m | 15.9 | 9.9% | 7.0% | +4.8% | −1% / +26% |
| ECNL.MIAquafil S.p.a. | 129.6 m | — | -3.2% | -0.9% | −3.9% | −1% / −52% |
| BEC.MIB&C Speakers S.p.a. | 118.7 m | 11.7 | 18.5% | 10.2% | −1.3% | −26% / −32% |
| ABT.MIAbitare In S.p.a. | 76.0 m | 276.0 | 0.4% | 0.4% | +39.8% | −6% / −47% |
| ELC.MIElica S.p.a. | 64.3 m | — | -7.8% | -2.2% | +1.9% | −34% / −48% |
| DEX.MIDexelance S.p.a. | 50.7 m | 2.8 | 11.0% | 5.4% | +12.6% | −63% / −78% |
| CLE.MIClass Editori S.p.a. | 35.1 m | — | -29.2% | -3.8% | −0.7% | −9% / +106% |
| CLF.MICaleffi - S.p.a. | 11.6 m | 5.2 | 10.9% | 3.8% | −2.5% | −4% / −10% |
| AEF.MIAeffe S.p.a. | 10.1 m | 0.5 | 21.9% | 7.7% | −21.3% | −59% / −86% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for GE.MI from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 6.52 Total return -38% · Per year -38% | 11.53 Total return 9% · Per year 9% | 17.36 Total return 63% · Per year 63% |
| 3 years | 6.36 Total return -33% · Per year -12% | 12.65 Total return 28% · Per year 9% | 20.92 Total return 106% · Per year 27% |
| 5 years | 6.21 Total return -28% · Per year -6% | 13.89 Total return 49% · Per year 8% | 25.21 Total return 159% · Per year 21% |
- Exit P/E± 3.16
- Net margin± 2.21
- Annual revenue growth± 1.81
- Annual dilution± 0.19
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Gefran is an Italian maker of industrial sensors and automation components with a global footprint. In 2025 the sensors segment grew faster than the group average, while automation components stalled under investment uncertainty and currency pressure 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The Sensori segment grows above the group average and has an extended commercial network across several regions.
- The company invests in R&D and in products with digital communication, positioned as a reliable partner in technology applications.
- Order intake and backlog have grown, giving visibility on future revenue.
Weaknesses
- Operating margin in automation components contracted sharply, mainly due to a shift in product mix.
- Exposure to currencies and customs duties affects results reported in euro.
- Dependence on a few key people and on internal know-how is a recognised operational risk.
Opportunities
- If electrification and automation investment recovers, sales of power controllers could rebound.
- Local production in China could strengthen the position in the Asian market.
- The G-Mation platform and integration with IIoT and AI solutions could open new revenue.
Threats
- Protectionism and customs duties could raise costs and block access to some foreign markets.
- Aggressive competition from large operators may press prices down.
- Cyber threats and vulnerabilities in products with IT/OT functions could cause data loss and interruptions.
Risks
- Cyber riskhigh
Adoption of new technologies and remote work increases exposure to cyber attacks, with possible interruptions of operations.
- Geopolitical tensions and protectionismhigh
Trade barriers and political instability could raise production costs and complicate supply chains.
- Currency exposuremedium
Movements in the dollar, renminbi and real affect reported revenue and margins.
- Dependence on key peoplemedium
Concentration of competences in a few individuals may affect operational continuity and technical know-how.
- Competitive pressuremedium
Large operators with more favourable cost structures can apply aggressive pricing.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- The Sensori segment grows faster than the group average, with demand in Italy and Asia, and orders and backlog are rising.
- If industrial investment recovers, automation components, especially power controllers, could rebound.
- The G-Mation platform and new products could raise value added over the medium term.
What would break the thesis
- Operating margin in automation components has fallen sharply, and the product mix has shifted toward lower-margin segments.
- Customs duties and currency volatility could keep eroding reported profitability.
- Competition from large operators could limit price increases and pressure margins.
What to watch
- Evolution of the EBIT margin in automation components2026
- Start of local static-unit production in ChinaQ2 2026
- Impact of customs duties on exchanges with the United States2026
- Evolution of orders and backlog in the Sensori segmentnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Gefran organises its activity in two businesses: Sensori and Componenti per l'automazione. In 2025 the Sensori business generated revenue of 90.929 thousand euro, and automation components 56.254 thousand euro 1. Both are reported as consolidated sums including subsidiaries.
The Sensori business grew 7.4% versus 2024, driven by industrial pressure sensors, melt sensors and position transducers 1. The Italian market grew by more than 18% and Asia by 6.9%.
Automation components grew 2.4% in 2025, but profitability contracted: EBIT fell to 274 thousand euro, reflecting a shift in mix toward simpler products such as static units 1.
Segments
Sensori
The Sensori segment grew 7.4% in 2025 to 90.929 thousand euro, and orders rose 6.9% 1. The EBITDA margin stayed high at 20.6% of revenue, although currency volatility and customs duties weighed on margins 1.
Componenti per l'automazione
The automation components segment reached 56.254 thousand euro in 2025, up 2.4%, but its EBIT was only 0.5% of revenue 1. The launch of the G-Mation platform and the GRC power controllers aims to restore competitiveness.
Market context
Gefran operates in open, highly competitive markets where price, innovation and customer support for machine builders are decisive 1. The sensors business benefited from automation investment, while power control was hit by lower electrification spending.
China and emerging markets grew in 2025, while Europe and the United States slowed as uncertainty froze investment 1. A protectionist environment could raise supply chain costs.
Trends
- Digital automation and Industry 4.0tailwind
Demand for sensors with digital communication and for advanced control systems is rising, supported by Industry 4.0 projects 1.
- Industrial investment uncertaintyheadwind
Customers postponed investment in Europe and the US, weighing on sales of power controllers and regulators 1.
- Currency volatilitymixed
Weaker dollar, renminbi and real reduced revenue reported in euro, with mixed effects on competitiveness 1.
- Trade protectionismheadwind
Customs duties on exchanges with the United States and subsidiaries eroded margins, while local production in China seeks to offset this 1.
Competitive position
Gefran competes in a crowded arena with large operators that have scale economies and more competitive cost structures, allowing aggressive pricing 1. Differentiation rests on technology, reliability and service.
The company aims to gain share in Asia through local production at Gefran Automation Technology in China, shortening response times to customers 1.
- Leading global sensor and automation groups
The analysed sources do not name competitors, so the list stays generic.
- Asian control component manufacturers
Operators with scale economies and lower production costs, described as competitive pressure in the annual report.
- European industrial automation suppliers
Competitors in European markets, where Gefran aims to hold share through innovation.
- Global automation groups
Operators that can apply aggressive pricing thanks to their size.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202507 Apr 2026
- Annual report 202415 Apr 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Gefran S.p.A. · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.