olivLaw · European equity research
Gas Plus S.p.A. GSP.MI
Italy · Euronext Milan · ISIN IT0004098510 · Vertical: Listed companies from Italy
Gas Plus is an Italian group active in hydrocarbon production, natural gas distribution and retail energy sales, with operations in Romania through its subsidiary Gas Plus Dacia. In fiscal 2024 EBITDA fell to 50.132 mn EUR from 70.538 mn EUR in 2023, as lower hydrocarbon prices and fiscal and regulatory obligations in Italy and Romania weighed on results.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Gas Plus S.p.A. (GSP.MI) stock was 6.98 EUR (−2.38% on the day), with market capitalisation 302.0 m EUR, P/E 24.1 on diluted EPS of 0.29 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 2.17%, beta -0.13, 52-week range 5.34–7.91 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 48.0
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 6.32 – 7.91
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.41 · band width 22.4%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 6.73 / 6.30
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.19 / 0.23
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +5.3% | −0.6% | +5.9 pp | — |
| 3 months | +20.6% | −4.2% | +24.7 pp | — |
| 6 months | +18.5% | +4.3% | +14.2 pp | — |
| Year to date | +3.6% | +7.5% | −3.9 pp | — |
| 1 year | 0.0% | +9.9% | −9.9 pp | −6.1% |
| 3 years | +179.2% | +49.8% | +129.4 pp | +7.7% |
| 5 years | +96.1% | +42.8% | +53.2 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 67 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 2.2, median 11.1, max 30.0; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 232.2 m | 154.9 m | 131.0 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −33.3% | −15.5% |
| Net income | 3.4 m | 49.2 m | 12.5 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +1,367.5% | −74.5% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.08 | 1.13 | 0.29 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +1,312.5% | −74.3% |
| net % | 1.4% | 31.8% | 9.6% |
| Free cash flow | 38.8 m | 238.0 k | 36.7 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2024 · 31 Dec 2024
- Cash
- 29.1 m EUR
- Financial debt
- unavailable EUR
- Net debt
- unavailable EUR
- Equity
- 231.1 m EUR
- Total assets
- 518.8 m EUR
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 0.86x
- ROE
- 5.5%
- ROA
- 2.4%
- FCF margin
- 28.0%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 232.2 m | 154.9 m | 131.0 m | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Operating income | 65.5 m | 47.9 m | 29.9 m | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 23.7 m | 23.4 m | 23.7 m | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| EBITDA | 89.2 m ≈ | 71.4 m ≈ | 53.5 m ≈ | esef· 07 May 2025derived |
| Interest expense | 9.8 m | 11.4 m | 10.3 m | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Pre-tax income | 55.8 m | 36.7 m | 20.2 m | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Income tax | 52.4 m | -12.5 m | 7.6 m | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Net income | 3.4 m | 49.2 m | 12.5 m | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.08 | 1.13 | 0.29 | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.15 | esef· 07 May 2025derived |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 30.2 m | 21.1 m | 29.1 m | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Inventories | 3.4 m | 4.1 m | 3.8 m | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Current assets | 116.1 m | 80.5 m | 84.3 m | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 121.3 m | 126.4 m | 125.8 m | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Goodwill | 884.0 k | 884.0 k | 884.0 k | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 259.8 m | 252.0 m | 254.6 m | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Total assets | 558.2 m | 513.9 m | 518.8 m | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Current liabilities | 153.6 m | 105.2 m | 98.5 m | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Total liabilities | 371.6 m | 285.0 m | 287.7 m | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Equity | 186.5 m | 229.0 m | 231.1 m | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 41.9 m | 43.6 m | 43.3 m | esef· 07 May 2025derived |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 63.3 m | 19.2 m | 47.7 m | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Capex | 24.5 m | 19.0 m | 11.1 m | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Free cash flow | 38.8 m ≈ | 238.0 k ≈ | 36.7 m ≈ | esef· 07 May 2025derived |
| Investing cash flow | -26.7 m | -17.0 m | -13.7 m | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Financing cash flow | -27.5 m | -11.6 m | -26.2 m | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Dividends paid | 2.2 m | 2.2 m | 6.6 m | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 302.0 m EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
52% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 1.82 – 6.63 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E1.82 – 6.63 (Mid 3.84)20 companies used · median multiple 13.3x · quartiles 6.3x – 22.9xAC5.MI, ACE.MI, ADB.MI, AEF.MI, AMP.MI, ARN.MI, ASC.MI, BC.MI, BEC.MI, CAI.MI, CIR.MI, CLF.MI, CMB.MI, COM.MI, CRL.MI, CY4.MI, DEX.MI, DIA.MI, DLG.MI, DNR.MI
- Dividend discount (DDM)2.06 – 2.81 (Mid 2.38)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 9.6% | 67 (vs peers) | 12% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 292.1% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 2.9x | 21 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.9x | 5 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 24.1x | 32 (vs peers) | 20% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 12.1% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 16% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 2.2% | 31 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 17.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet15/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality83/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns59/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation62/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
GAS PLUS S.P.A. (GSP.MI). Latest full fiscal year: 2024; data up to 2024-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 131.0 m EUR in 2024; YoY growth -15.5%; net margin 9.6%; ROE 5.5%.
The estimated value range is 1.94–4.72 EUR per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 3.11 EUR, the price of 6.98 EUR leaves a potential of -55.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -124.4% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 292.1%
- FCF yield: 12.1%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 17.9%
What contradicts it
- Interest coverage: 2.9x
- Current ratio: 0.9x
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Italy · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DLG.MIDe' Longhi S.p.a. | 6.8 bn | 21.5 | 15.4% | 8.4% | +8.7% | +24% / +60% |
| ACE.MIAcea S.p.a. | 4.6 bn | 9.6 | 18.2% | 16.6% | +0.2% | −4% / +73% |
| DIA.MIDiasorin S.p.a. | 4.3 bn | 28.3 | 9.2% | 13.0% | +0.8% | +31% / −7% |
| CRL.MICarel Industries S.p.a. | 2.9 bn | 39.5 | 16.1% | 11.7% | +8.7% | +3% / +10% |
| AMP.MIAmplifon S.p.a. | 2.7 bn | 29.9 | 8.5% | 3.8% | −0.6% | −9% / −58% |
| CMB.MICembre S.p.a. | 1.3 bn | 27.0 | 20.6% | 18.9% | +6.7% | +11% / +108% |
| COM.MIComer Industries S.p.a. | 1.3 bn | 18.6 | 12.8% | 7.1% | −23.0% | +8% / +64% |
| DNR.MIIndustrie De Nora S.p.a. | 1.1 bn | 13.4 | 8.6% | 9.4% | +1.4% | −22% / −62% |
| ARN.MIAlerion Clean Power S.p.a. In Forma Abbreviata Alerion S.p.a. | 969.2 m | 10.4 | 23.5% | 41.0% | +1.8% | −5% / −23% |
| AVIO.MIAvio S.p.a. | 883.6 m | 86.8 | 2.1% | 1.8% | +21.5% | +18% / +291% |
| CIR.MICir S.p.a. - Compagnie Industriali Riunite | 783.3 m | 6.0 | 17.1% | 7.3% | +1.6% | +4% / +72% |
| ASC.MIAscopiave S.p.a. | 646.3 m | 18.0 | 4.2% | 17.5% | +13.4% | −8% / +33% |
| AC5.MIAcinque S.p.a. | 412.6 m | 19.6 | 4.1% | 3.6% | +0.2% | −6% / +8% |
| BAN.MIBasic Net S.p.a. | 348.0 m | — | -4.9% | -3.5% | +0.4% | −30% / +5% |
| ADB.MIAeroporto Guglielmo Marconi Di Bologna S.p.a. | 324.7 m | 13.1 | 11.1% | 13.7% | +9.2% | −2% / +12% |
| GSP.MIGas Plus S.p.a. | 302.0 m | 24.1 | 5.5% | 9.6% | −15.5% | −1% / +165% |
| CAI.MICairo Communication S.p.a. | 289.2 m | 6.4 | 8.1% | 4.4% | −1.3% | −22% / +28% |
| ECNL.MIAquafil S.p.a. | 129.6 m | — | -3.2% | -0.9% | −3.9% | −1% / −52% |
| BEC.MIB&C Speakers S.p.a. | 118.7 m | 11.7 | 18.5% | 10.2% | −1.3% | −26% / −32% |
| ABT.MIAbitare In S.p.a. | 76.0 m | 276.0 | 0.4% | 0.4% | +39.8% | −6% / −47% |
| ELC.MIElica S.p.a. | 64.3 m | — | -7.8% | -2.2% | +1.9% | −34% / −48% |
| DEX.MIDexelance S.p.a. | 50.7 m | 2.8 | 11.0% | 5.4% | +12.6% | −63% / −78% |
| CLE.MIClass Editori S.p.a. | 35.1 m | — | -29.2% | -3.8% | −0.7% | −9% / +106% |
| CLF.MICaleffi - S.p.a. | 11.6 m | 5.2 | 10.9% | 3.8% | −2.5% | −4% / −10% |
| AEF.MIAeffe S.p.a. | 10.1 m | 0.5 | 21.9% | 7.7% | −21.3% | −59% / −86% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for GSP.MI from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 3.73 Total return -45% · Per year -45% | 6.63 Total return -3% · Per year -3% | 10.03 Total return 46% · Per year 46% |
| 3 years | 2.96 Total return -53% · Per year -22% | 5.98 Total return -8% · Per year -3% | 10.03 Total return 51% · Per year 15% |
| 5 years | 2.35 Total return -60% · Per year -17% | 5.40 Total return -13% · Per year -3% | 10.03 Total return 56% · Per year 9% |
- Exit P/E± 1.50
- Net margin± 1.05
- Annual revenue growth± 0.95
- Annual dilution± 0.09
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Gas Plus is an Italian group active in hydrocarbon production, natural gas distribution and retail energy sales, with operations in Romania through its subsidiary Gas Plus Dacia. In fiscal 2024 EBITDA fell to 50.132 mn EUR from 70.538 mn EUR in 2023 1, as lower hydrocarbon prices and fiscal and regulatory obligations in Italy and Romania weighed on results.
SWOT
Strengths
- A strengthened balance sheet, with lower net financial debt and rising equity, giving room for financial manoeuvre 1.
- An integrated activity across three units, from production and distribution to sales, which could reduce dependence on a single business 1.
- Access to revolving and short-term credit lines from several banks, reinforcing liquidity 1.
Weaknesses
- Profitability fell sharply in 2024, with EBITDA and net profit both lower than the previous year 1.
- The effective tax rate is high, and special fiscal obligations in Italy and Romania weigh on results 1.
- Many distribution concessions have expired and are managed under prorogatio, creating uncertainty over the medium term 1.
Opportunities
Risks
- Special taxes in Romaniahigh
The Specific Turnover Tax and the gas Price Cap could affect subsidiary Gas Plus Dacia, and their applicability remains contested in court 1.
- Expiry of distribution concessionshigh
If the company does not win the new concessions, it would receive indemnities but lose activity in those areas, which could weigh on long-term revenues 1.
- Hydrocarbon price volatilitymedium
Price declines reduce production revenues and can change royalty and production-linked tax levels 1.
- Regulation in Italymedium
Extraordinary contributions and rules on permits and retail sales can change the operating framework, and some disputes remain open 1.
- Decommissioning and environmental costslow
The site decommissioning and restoration fund is significant, and environmental obligations could generate additional costs if contamination occurs 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If debt reduction continues and profitability recovers on better prices, the group could have a more flexible balance sheet for investment 1.
- Integrating production, distribution and sales could support revenue stability if markets remain favourable 1.
- Winning the new distribution concessions could extend activity into areas the group already knows 1.
What would break the thesis
- If hydrocarbon prices stay low, EBITDA and profit could keep declining, as happened in 2024 1.
- Special taxes and legal disputes could generate unexpected costs and put pressure on margins 1.
- If the company does not win the new distribution concessions, activity in those areas could be significantly reduced 1.
What to watch
- Trend in EBITDA and net profit after the 2024 decline2025
- Outcome of challenges to the Specific Turnover Tax and Price Cap in Romania2025
- Timing and results of tenders for gas distribution concessionsnext 10-K
- Activation of the gas release procedure and its effect on access to domestic gas2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The Gas Plus group organises its activity into three business units: hydrocarbon exploration and production (E&P), natural gas distribution under concessions and retail sales on the Italian market. The parent company Gas Plus S.p.A. provides centralised services to its subsidiaries in areas such as administration, treasury, legal, information systems, procurement and human resources 1. The parent's revenues come mainly from these intra-group services and from dividends received from subsidiaries 1.
The group's financial structure strengthened in 2024: net financial debt fell to 23.827 mn EUR from 50.495 mn EUR at the end of 2023, and equity reached 231.092 mn EUR 1. The company repaid early its medium and long-term financing with Intesa Sanpaolo and Banco BPM, and in March 2024 obtained a new two-year revolving line of 30 mn EUR 1.
Net profit fell to 12.547 mn EUR in 2024 from 49.218 mn EUR in 2023, affected by lower EBIT, charges linked to unused transport capacity on the TAG pipeline and an effective tax rate of about 38% 1.
Segments
Exploration and production (E&P)
The E&P unit covers hydrocarbon exploration and production in Italy and Romania, with large investments and specific economic and geological risks. For Italy, the abolition of PiTESAI and new rules on exploration permits for liquid hydrocarbons changed the regulatory framework 1. In Romania, the subsidiary Gas Plus Dacia is subject to the fixed-price sales obligation, whose application to the subsidiary the company continues to contest 1.
Distribution (Network)
The Network unit holds natural gas distribution concessions, most of which have expired and are managed under prorogatio. Local authorities are to tender new concessions for the defined territorial areas, and the company would receive the indemnities provided for the outgoing operator, calculated on industrial reconstruction values that exceed book values 1.
Retail (sales to end customers)
The Retail unit operates exclusively in the Italian market, where competition is intense and prices are shaped by ARERA regulation. The gas protected service for non-vulnerable customers ended at the close of 2023, and trade receivables rose in 2024 as certain facilities that had cancelled system charges ceased 1.
Market context
The group operates in the Italian and Romanian natural gas and hydrocarbon markets, where sale and purchase prices and the regulatory framework directly determine margins. The fall in hydrocarbon prices in 2024 reduced royalties from 10.630 mn EUR in 2023 to 7.426 mn EUR, showing how sensitive costs are to global prices 1.
In Italy, distribution is subject to competition through tenders for concessions, while retail sales take place in a highly competitive environment with ARERA regulation that can limit commercial policy 1. How these markets evolve will depend on the new rules and on the outcome of tenders for expired concessions.
Trends
- Lower hydrocarbon pricesheadwind
Lower hydrocarbon prices reduced royalties and windfall tax, but also weighed on EBITDA and production revenues, which are directly linked to selling prices 1.
- Balance sheet consolidationtailwind
Lower net financial debt and the new revolving line give more financial flexibility, which could support investment if market conditions improve 1.
- New hydrocarbon rules in Italymixed
The abolition of PiTESAI and new rules for exploration permits and gas concessions may change production prospects, which could open new opportunities if procedures become more predictable 1.
- Fiscal and regulatory burdenheadwind
Extraordinary contributions in Italy and special taxes in Romania, including the Specific Turnover Tax, have increased fiscal pressure, and legal challenges are still ongoing 1.
Competitive position
In Italy, Gas Plus faces intense competition in retail gas and energy sales, while in distribution competition will take the form of tenders for new concessions in the defined territorial areas 1. The sources provided do not identify specific competitors outside the group.
In E&P in Romania and Italy, competition depends on access to permits and the regulatory framework, and the sources do not detail other operators. For this reason the group's relative position cannot be assessed from the document provided.
- Distribution operators competing in concession tenders
Companies that could win the new gas distribution concessions in the defined territorial areas; the source does not name them.
- Energy suppliers competing in the Italian retail market
Gas and energy sellers that compete directly with the Retail unit; the source does not name them.
- Oil and gas operators active in Romania
Producers affected by the same fixed-price and special tax rules; the source does not name them.
- Other exploration permit holders in Italy
Companies that could obtain permits for liquid hydrocarbons under the new rules; the source does not name them.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202407 May 2025
- Annual report 202301 May 2024
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2024-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Gas Plus S.p.A. · 31 Dec 2024
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.