olivLaw · European equity research
Neinor Homes, S.A. HOME.MC
Spain · BME Madrid · ISIN ES0105251005 · Vertical: Listed companies from Spain
Neinor Homes is a Spanish residential property developer active in construction, asset management and related lines, which recently integrated Aedas Homes through a takeover offer that produced a change of control. The group carried long-cycle inventories above one billion euros into its balance sheet, so margin and financing developments matter a great deal to investors.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Neinor Homes, S.A. (HOME.MC) stock was 18.50 EUR (+1.48% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.6 bn EUR, P/E 12.6 on diluted EPS of 1.47 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 9.96%, beta 0.52, 52-week range 14.80–20.75 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 76.3
- overbought (≥ 70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 16.00 – 18.16
- above the upper band · %B 1.16 · band width 12.6%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 16.29 / 16.75
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.46 / 0.34
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +6.3% | −0.6% | +6.9 pp | — |
| 3 months | +20.2% | −4.2% | +24.4 pp | — |
| 6 months | +9.1% | +4.3% | +4.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | −2.6% | +7.5% | −10.1 pp | — |
| 1 year | +9.5% | +9.9% | −0.5 pp | +6.7% |
| 3 years | +88.0% | +49.8% | +38.2 pp | +31.5% |
| 5 years | +61.7% | +42.8% | +18.9 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 25 percentile of its own 4-quarter history (min 6.7, median 12.8, max 20.3; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | unavailable | 590.6 m | 486.7 m | 704.6 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable | −17.6% | +44.8% |
| Net income | 90.6 m | 99.5 m | 62.0 m | 123.3 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +9.8% | −37.7% | +98.8% |
| Diluted EPS | 1.22 | 0.83 | 0.83 | 1.47 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −31.7% | 0.0% | +76.5% |
| net % | unavailable | 16.8% | 12.7% | 17.5% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 802.7 m EUR
- Financial debt
- 419.5 m EUR
- Net debt
- -383.3 m EUR
- Equity
- 1.4 bn EUR
- Total assets
- 3.9 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- 0.30x
- Current ratio
- 2.02x
- ROE
- 11.0%
- ROA
- 4.4%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | 590.6 m | 486.7 m | 704.6 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | — | 405.5 m | 333.5 m | 501.3 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Gross profit | — | 185.1 m ≈ | 153.2 m ≈ | 203.4 m ≈ | esef· 20 Oct 2026derived |
| Operating income | — | 111.3 m | 66.5 m | 164.6 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | — | 7.5 m | 4.4 m | 5.0 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| EBITDA | — | 118.8 m ≈ | 70.9 m ≈ | 169.5 m ≈ | esef· 20 Oct 2026derived |
| Interest expense | — | 25.7 m | 22.9 m | 27.1 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | — | 99.5 m | 76.7 m | 137.2 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Income tax | — | 8.1 m | 14.4 m | 15.3 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Net income | 90.6 m | 99.5 m | 62.0 m | 123.3 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 1.22 | 0.83 | 0.83 | 1.47 | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | — | 0.43 | 1.53 | 1.84 | esef· 20 Oct 2026derived |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 227.5 m | 188.4 m | 368.4 m | 802.7 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Receivables | — | 102.4 m | 78.2 m | 130.7 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Inventories | — | 1.0 bn | 935.7 m | — | esef· 08 May 2025verified |
| Current assets | — | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | 3.5 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | — | 4.8 m | 4.0 m | 9.4 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Goodwill | — | 4.5 m | 4.5 m | 4.5 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | — | 4.6 m | 3.1 m | 14.4 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Total assets | — | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | 3.9 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | — | 136.4 m | 124.3 m | 318.9 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | — | — | 153.3 m | 419.5 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | — | 487.7 m | 488.7 m | 1.7 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Equity | 930.0 m | 978.0 m | 861.7 m | 1.4 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | — | 81.8 m | 74.6 m | 84.0 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | — | 10.5 m | 102.6 m | 211.3 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Investing cash flow | — | 81.0 m | -24.0 m | -677.8 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | — | -130.7 m | 101.5 m | 672.8 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | — | 35.0 m | 114.1 m | 154.7 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | — | — | 0 | -952.0 k | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 78 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
score >= 65 · margin_of_safety >= 0.15 · agreement in ['high', 'medium']
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 1.6 bn EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Growth43
- Returns100
- Balance sheet91
- Valuation80
- Quality67
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 22.27 – 34.16 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · not enough peers
- Peers: P/E22.27 – 33.35 (Mid 29.16)18 companies used · median multiple 19.9x · quartiles 15.2x – 22.7xACS.MC, ADX.MC, AEDAS.MC, AENA.MC, AMS.MC, ANA.MC, CAF.MC, CLEO.MC, CMO.MC, DESA.MC, DIA.MC, EAT.MC, EDR.MC, ELE.MC, ENER.MC, ENO.MC, FAE.MC, FCC.MC
- Dividend discount (DDM)25.05 – 34.16 (Mid 28.90)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Attractive profile · Score 78/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 17.8% | 57 (vs peers) | 14% |
| Net margin · Quality | 17.5% | 84 (vs peers) | 9% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 6.5% | 43 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | -2.3x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 6.1x | 70 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.0x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 12.6x | 86 (vs peers) | 14% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 6.9x | 74 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 10.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet91/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial43/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality67/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation80/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
NEINOR HOMES SA (HOME.MC). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 704.6 m EUR in 2025; YoY growth 44.8%; net margin 17.5%; ROE 12.2%; net debt/EBITDA -2.3x.
The estimated value range is 23.66–33.75 EUR per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 29.03 EUR, the price of 18.50 EUR leaves a potential of 56.9% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 36.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 78/100, methodological classification: attractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth, returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 17.5%
- Net debt / EBITDA: -2.3x
- Interest coverage: 6.1x
- Current ratio: 2.0x
- P/E (TTM): 12.6x
- EV/EBITDA: 6.9x
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 10.0%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Spain · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELE.MCEndesa SA | 46.9 bn | 21.4 | 26.4% | 10.5% | +0.5% | +43% / +134% |
| AENA.MCAena S.m.e. SA | 42.6 bn | 19.9 | 24.2% | 34.0% | +8.9% | +21% / +79% |
| AMS.MCAmadeus It Group Sociedad Anonima | 26.2 bn | 19.8 | 26.9% | 20.5% | +6.1% | −6% / −5% |
| ACS.MCAcs Actividades De Construccion Y Servicios, S.A. | 21.9 bn | 23.0 | 19.9% | 1.9% | +19.7% | +7% / +134% |
| ANA.MCAcciona SA | 11.7 bn | 14.5 | 16.9% | 4.0% | +5.5% | +24% / +66% |
| FCC.MCFomento De Construcciones Y Contratas S.A. | 5.0 bn | 30.3 | 5.3% | 1.7% | +6.9% | −8% / −14% |
| DIA.MCDistribuidora Internacional De Alimentacion SA | 2.7 bn | 20.6 | 165.6% | 2.2% | −2.7% | +51% / +380,733% |
| CMO.MCCementos Molins S.A. | 2.5 bn | 13.6 | 14.3% | 18.0% | −3.1% | +31% / unavailable |
| ENO.MCElecnor SA | 2.4 bn | 21.9 | 10.5% | 2.5% | +15.1% | −3% / +58% |
| ALM.MCAlmirall S.A. | 2.4 bn | 51.1 | 3.1% | 4.2% | +12.4% | −11% / +32% |
| HOME.MCNeinor Homes SA | 1.6 bn | 12.6 | 12.2% | 17.5% | +44.8% | +1% / +79% |
| FAE.MCFaes Farma SA | 1.5 bn | 19.3 | 10.8% | 13.0% | +23.7% | +3% / +57% |
| AEDAS.MCAedas Homes SA | 1.0 bn | 17.1 | 57.8% | 7.0% | −24.8% | +0% / +38% |
| EDR.MCEdreams Odigeo SA | 574.4 m | 11.5 | 21.0% | 7.8% | −0.4% | +40% / −24% |
| EAT.MCAmRest Holdings SE | 506.0 m | 31.4 | 4.3% | 0.6% | +0.1% | −34% / −61% |
| ADX.MCAudax Renovables S.A. | 468.5 m | 23.9 | 9.3% | 1.0% | −5.4% | −23% / −18% |
| ATRY.MCAtrys Health, S.A. | 200.4 m | — | -49.5% | -71.1% | +8.5% | −3% / −29% |
| ENER.MCEcoener, S.A. | 175.6 m | 32.2 | 4.2% | 6.4% | +3.6% | −34% / −6% |
| ADZ.MCAdolfo Dominguez SA | 62.9 m | 38.3 | 9.0% | 1.2% | +1.8% | +39% / +40% |
| DESA.MCDesarrollos Especiales De Sistemas De Anclaje S.A. | 44.8 m | 9.2 | 152.3% | 10.0% | +2.2% | +19% / unavailable |
| EZE.MCGrupo Ezentis SA | 29.0 m | — | — | -9.3% | +147.2% | −30% / −37% |
| CLEO.MCCompañia Levantina De Edificacion Y Obras Publicas SA | 17.3 m | 14.4 | 4.1% | 3.4% | +13.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AYC.MCAyco Grupo Inmobiliario, S.A. | 16.4 m | — | -33.8% | — | −100.0% | unavailable / unavailable |
| EBRO.MCEbro Foods, S.A. | 3.0 m | 0.0 | 10.0% | 7.7% | −4.0% | −0% / +19% |
| A3M.MCAtresmedia Corporacion De Medios De Comunicacion, S.A. | — | — | 7.9% | 6.9% | −2.7% | +13% / +60% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for HOME.MC from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 12.09 Total return -28% · Per year -28% | 21.27 Total return 24% · Per year 24% | 31.91 Total return 83% · Per year 83% |
| 3 years | 14.34 Total return 0% · Per year 0% | 28.14 Total return 84% · Per year 22% | 45.95 Total return 188% · Per year 42% |
| 5 years | 17.01 Total return 33% · Per year 6% | 37.21 Total return 163% · Per year 21% | 66.17 Total return 339% · Per year 34% |
- Exit P/E± 7.03
- Net margin± 4.92
- Annual revenue growth± 3.67
- Annual dilution± 0.41
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Neinor Homes is a Spanish residential property developer active in construction, asset management and related lines, which recently integrated Aedas Homes through a takeover offer that produced a change of control. The group carried long-cycle inventories above one billion euros into its balance sheet 1, so margin and financing developments matter a great deal to investors.
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
- Operating margins are under pressure when production and land costs rise faster than prices 1.
- Dependence on a single main business line and on the banking sector for financing remains a vulnerability the company acknowledges 1.
- Long-cycle inventories and associated liabilities have grown, increasing exposure to financing 1.
Opportunities
Risks
- Sector cyclicalityhigh
Property activity is correlated with macroeconomic cycles, and shifts in the cycle can affect sales and results.
- Cost pressurehigh
Rising construction and land costs, not fully passed on to prices, can reduce margins.
- Financing exposuremedium
Dependence on the banking sector and on refinancing could become problematic if credit conditions deteriorate.
- Integration of Aedas Homesmedium
Integration after the offer and the change of control could create operational and governance difficulties.
- Compliance and climate riskslow
Reporting obligations, criminal-law risks and the impact of climate change require continuous control.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If margins stabilise and the integration proceeds as planned, the group could benefit from a broader portfolio and a more robust financing structure.
- Diversification into rental, senior living and BTR could reduce dependence on one-off sales and the classic cycle.
- Total shareholder return including dividends was described as significant over 2022-2025, indicating investor interest 1.
What would break the thesis
- If construction and land costs keep rising faster than prices, margins could remain under pressure.
- Dependence on bank financing and favourable credit conditions could become a problem in a more demanding environment.
- Integrating Aedas Homes and growing long-cycle inventories could raise execution risk and capital exposure.
What to watch
- Trend in operating margins and land costs2026
- Completion of the Aedas Homes integration and cash settlement of the incentive plan2026
- Debt levels and refinancing conditions2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Neinor Homes, S.A. develops and sells homes, covering the value chain from land acquisition to delivery of units to clients 1. The group also manages investment vehicles co-invested with other investors and funds, providing operational management, construction and marketing services to them 1. From 2025 the perimeter includes Aedas Homes, S.A., following a takeover offer that changed control of the group 1.
Segments
Market context
Spanish residential property operates in a context of macroeconomic cycles and more demanding financing after interest rates rose, factors the company explicitly cites as sources of risk 1. Construction and land acquisition costs increased, compressing operating margins, and the company notes it operates in a demanding market for listed real estate 1.
Trends
- Margin pressureheadwind
Rising production and land acquisition costs, not fully passed on to prices, reduced operating margins and raised the risk perceived by investors 1.
- Cost of financingmixed
After the interest rate peak in 2023, the group renegotiated and repaid debt and issued a green bond, strengthening its sustainable financing structure 1.
- Diversification into rental and senior livingtailwind
The company is extending into integrated construction, own and third-party rental, senior living and BTR operations, as a response to the need for more efficient growth 1.
- Sustainability reporting requirementsmixed
Preparing for CSRD standards led to identifying many climate and ESG impacts, risks and opportunities, adding reporting obligations 1.
Competitive position
Spanish residential development includes listed and private developers competing for land and buyers. The available sources do not identify competitors in detail, so the list below reflects only entities explicitly mentioned in the documentation.
- Aedas Homes, S.A.
Spanish residential developer integrated into the group after a takeover offer that changed control 1.
- Private residential developers in Spain
Compete for land and buyers in the same market, not identified individually in the source.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202520 Oct 2026
- Annual report 202408 May 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Neinor Homes, S.A. · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.