olivLaw · European equity research
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. ISP.MI
Italy · Euronext Milan · ISIN IT0000072618 · Vertical: Listed companies from Italy
Intesa Sanpaolo is an Italian bank with an insurance division that applies IFRS 17 from 2022, a standard that changes how insurance contract revenue and profit are presented. The source document is the annual report for the year ended 31 December 2022, so the picture reflects 2022, not a current view.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. (ISP.MI) stock was 6.27 EUR (−0.27% on the day), with market capitalisation 118.6 bn EUR, P/E 27.2 on diluted EPS of 0.23 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 2.50%, beta 1.21, 52-week range 4.97–6.92 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 54.6
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 5.80 – 6.30
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.93 · band width 8.2%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 6.41 / 6.04
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.08 / -0.13
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −3.7% | −0.6% | −3.1 pp | — |
| 3 months | −7.8% | −4.2% | −3.7 pp | — |
| 6 months | +5.6% | +4.3% | +1.3 pp | — |
| Year to date | +5.8% | +7.5% | −1.7 pp | — |
| 1 year | +11.7% | +9.9% | +1.8 pp | −5.5% |
| 3 years | +144.2% | +49.8% | +94.3 pp | +8.9% |
| 5 years | +152.2% | +42.8% | +109.4 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 2-quarter history (min 9.0, median 9.7, max 10.3; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2021 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | unavailable | unavailable |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable |
| Net income | 4.2 bn | 4.4 bn |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +4.0% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +4.5% |
| net % | unavailable | unavailable |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2022 · 31 Dec 2022
- Cash
- 112.9 bn EUR
- Financial debt
- unavailable EUR
- Net debt
- unavailable EUR
- Equity
- unavailable EUR
- Total assets
- 975.7 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- unavailable
- ROA
- 0.4%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Income statement · EUR
Balance sheet · EUR
Cash flow · EUR
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 2 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 16.7% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 118.6 bn EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
17% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 1.47 – 6.20 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E1.47 – 6.20 (Mid 3.09)21 companies used · median multiple 13.4x · quartiles 6.4x – 27.0xAC5.MI, ACE.MI, ADB.MI, AEF.MI, AMP.MI, ARN.MI, ASC.MI, BC.MI, BEC.MI, CAI.MI, CIR.MI, CLF.MI, CMB.MI, COM.MI, CRL.MI, CY4.MI, DEX.MI, DIA.MI, DLG.MI, DNR.MI, ELN.MI
- Dividend discount (DDM)2.13 – 2.91 (Mid 2.46)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 2 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 16.7% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 27.2x | 30 (vs peers) | 63% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 2.5% | 36 (on a fixed band) | 38% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial36/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial30/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
INTESA SANPAOLO SPA (ISP.MI). Latest full fiscal year: 2022; data up to 2022-12-31.
Financial indicators are unavailable.
The estimated value range is 1.80–4.55 EUR per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 2.77 EUR, the price of 6.26 EUR leaves a potential of -55.7% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -125.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 2 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 16.7% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
What contradicts it
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net margin, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, Current ratio, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Italy · same country · compared with 40 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DLG.MIDe' Longhi S.p.a. | 6.8 bn | 21.5 | 15.4% | 8.4% | +8.7% | +24% / +60% |
| ACE.MIAcea S.p.a. | 4.6 bn | 9.6 | 18.2% | 16.6% | +0.2% | −4% / +73% |
| DIA.MIDiasorin S.p.a. | 4.3 bn | 28.3 | 9.2% | 13.0% | +0.8% | +31% / −7% |
| CRL.MICarel Industries S.p.a. | 2.9 bn | 39.5 | 16.1% | 11.7% | +8.7% | +3% / +10% |
| AMP.MIAmplifon S.p.a. | 2.7 bn | 29.9 | 8.5% | 3.8% | −0.6% | −9% / −58% |
| ELN.MIEl.en. - S.p.a. | 1.3 bn | 30.3 | 10.9% | 7.3% | +4.2% | +26% / +73% |
| CMB.MICembre S.p.a. | 1.3 bn | 27.0 | 20.6% | 18.9% | +6.7% | +11% / +108% |
| COM.MIComer Industries S.p.a. | 1.3 bn | 18.6 | 12.8% | 7.1% | −23.0% | +8% / +64% |
| DNR.MIIndustrie De Nora S.p.a. | 1.1 bn | 13.4 | 8.6% | 9.4% | +1.4% | −22% / −62% |
| ARN.MIAlerion Clean Power S.p.a. In Forma Abbreviata Alerion S.p.a. | 969.2 m | 10.4 | 23.5% | 41.0% | +1.8% | −5% / −23% |
| AVIO.MIAvio S.p.a. | 883.6 m | 86.8 | 2.1% | 1.8% | +21.5% | +18% / +291% |
| CIR.MICir S.p.a. - Compagnie Industriali Riunite | 783.3 m | 6.0 | 17.1% | 7.3% | +1.6% | +4% / +72% |
| ASC.MIAscopiave S.p.a. | 646.3 m | 18.0 | 4.2% | 17.5% | +13.4% | −8% / +33% |
| AC5.MIAcinque S.p.a. | 412.6 m | 19.6 | 4.1% | 3.6% | +0.2% | −6% / +8% |
| BAN.MIBasic Net S.p.a. | 348.0 m | — | -4.9% | -3.5% | +0.4% | −30% / +5% |
| ADB.MIAeroporto Guglielmo Marconi Di Bologna S.p.a. | 324.7 m | 13.1 | 11.1% | 13.7% | +9.2% | −2% / +12% |
| CAI.MICairo Communication S.p.a. | 289.2 m | 6.4 | 8.1% | 4.4% | −1.3% | −22% / +28% |
| ECNL.MIAquafil S.p.a. | 129.6 m | — | -3.2% | -0.9% | −3.9% | −1% / −52% |
| BEC.MIB&C Speakers S.p.a. | 118.7 m | 11.7 | 18.5% | 10.2% | −1.3% | −26% / −32% |
| ABT.MIAbitare In S.p.a. | 76.0 m | 276.0 | 0.4% | 0.4% | +39.8% | −6% / −47% |
| ELC.MIElica S.p.a. | 64.3 m | — | -7.8% | -2.2% | +1.9% | −34% / −48% |
| DEX.MIDexelance S.p.a. | 50.7 m | 2.8 | 11.0% | 5.4% | +12.6% | −63% / −78% |
| CLE.MIClass Editori S.p.a. | 35.1 m | — | -29.2% | -3.8% | −0.7% | −9% / +106% |
| CLF.MICaleffi - S.p.a. | 11.6 m | 5.2 | 10.9% | 3.8% | −2.5% | −4% / −10% |
| AEF.MIAeffe S.p.a. | 10.1 m | 0.5 | 21.9% | 7.7% | −21.3% | −59% / −86% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for ISP.MI from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Intesa Sanpaolo is an Italian bank with an insurance division that applies IFRS 17 from 2022, a standard that changes how insurance contract revenue and profit are presented 1. The source document is the annual report for the year ended 31 December 2022, so the picture reflects 2022, not a current view.
SWOT
Strengths
- The Group has a unified IT structure for the insurance division and an IFRS 17 implementation plan largely completed by 30 June 2022 1.
- The Group used several transition approaches depending on available data, which shows flexible management of the standard's implementation 1.
- The Group kept operations running in the conflict region, with systems active and data backups held outside the country 1.
Weaknesses
- Exposure to subsidiaries in the conflict region adds operational and credit risks that are hard to control 1.
- Applying IFRS 17 requires complex models and historical data that was not available for all contracts, which made the transition difficult 1.
- Consolidated CSM can differ from the insurance division's CSM, which makes results harder to interpret 1.
Opportunities
- If IFRS 17 is applied successfully, clearer presentation of the technical margin could support a more precise assessment of the insurance division 1.
- Strengthened cybersecurity and business continuity could reduce the risk of service interruptions 1.
- Monitoring of vulnerable and energy-intensive sectors could allow early intervention on credit exposures 1.
Threats
- Sanctions on Russia and the war in Ukraine could limit the activity of subsidiaries in the region and affect exposed clients 1.
- Higher energy costs and possible supply interruptions could affect clients and the Group's operations 1.
- Escalation of the conflict could lead to outcomes that are hard to estimate, which could affect capital adequacy 1.
Risks
- Exposure to Russia and Ukrainehigh
Subsidiaries and clients in the region can be directly affected by the war and sanctions, and effects may be hard to anticipate if the conflict widens 1.
- Sanctionsmedium
Exposure to sanctioned counterparties, although limited relative to the total, could generate compliance costs and frozen funds 1.
- Operational continuitymedium
Interruptions to electricity or gas supply could affect operations, and the Group has prepared fallback measures 1.
- Credit risk in energy-intensive sectorsmedium
Higher energy prices could increase default risk for firms in energy-intensive sectors 1.
- IFRS 17 complexitylow
Errors in estimating cash flows and the contractual service margin could affect the comparability of results 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the Group manages sanctions and operational continuity successfully, it could maintain stability of activity in the region 1.
- Applying IFRS 17 could give a clearer picture of the insurance division's profitability, which could support long-term analysis 1.
- Strengthened security controls and infrastructure diversification could reduce the impact of operational disruptions 1.
What would break the thesis
What to watch
- Development of the situation in Ukraine and its impact on subsidiaries in the region2023
- Application of IFRS 17 in consolidated financial statements2023
- Evolution of exposure to energy-intensive sectors2023
- Disclosure of exposure to sanctioned counterpartiesnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The Intesa Sanpaolo Group includes an insurance division to which IFRS 17 applies, a standard that requires a separate presentation of the technical margin and the financial components of results 1. Insurance products with direct participation features use the Variable Fee Approach, while many non-life contracts use the Premium Allocation Approach 1.
The Group has international subsidiaries, among them Pravex Bank in Ukraine, Banca Intesa Russia and Banca Comerciala Eximbank in Moldova, and the annual report shows these entities operated in 2022 under pressure from the war 1. The Group also set up a unified IT structure for all companies in the insurance division 1.
On accounting, the Group chose several methodological options, including use of the OCI option for most insurance portfolios, to reduce accounting mismatches between insurance contracts and related financial assets 1.
Segments
Insurance division
The insurance division applies IFRS 17 to insurance products and investment products with discretionary participation features, and portfolios are grouped by Solvency II lines of business in non-life and by separate management in life 1.
Banca dei Territori and IMI Corporate & Investment Banking
The source names the Banca dei Territori and IMI Corporate & Investment Banking divisions as the ones where counterparties with significant operations with Russia and Ukraine were reviewed, which shows their direct exposure to the region 1.
International subsidiaries
Subsidiaries in the region, such as Pravex Bank, Banca Intesa Russia and Banca Comerciala Eximbank, are the segment most exposed to geopolitical risk, and the Group continuously monitored their operations 1.
Market context
The source does not provide market share or size data for the Italian or European bancassurance market. It only shows that IFRS 17 applies to the market and that the Bank of Italy issued an update to Circular 262 to align bank consolidated financial statements with the standard, applicable from statements as at 31 December 2023 1.
The European insurance market is influenced by the implementation of IFRS 17 and alignment with IVASS rules, which could change how banks and insurers present their results 1.
Trends
- IFRS 17 implementationmixed
The new standard changes the measurement of insurance liabilities and the presentation of revenue and profit, which could make results more comparable across companies but harder to interpret during the transition period 1.
- War in Ukraine and sanctionsheadwind
The conflict led to heavy sanctions on Russia, and the Group blocked new operations with counterparties in Russia, Belarus and Ukraine, which could limit business in the region 1.
- Energy costsheadwind
Higher energy prices affected energy-intensive sectors, and the Group reviewed their exposure, which could put pressure on credit quality if price increases persist 1.
- Digitalisation and cybersecuritymixed
The Group strengthened security controls and multi-factor authentication, an effort that could support operational continuity but requires ongoing investment 1.
Competitive position
The analysed source does not identify direct competitors of the Group. It can only be observed that the insurance business competes in a market where all participants must apply the same IFRS 17 rules 1.
Comparability between companies could increase with uniform application of the standard, which would make competition more transparent for investors 1.
- European banks and insurers
The source does not name competitors, so no specific companies are indicated.
- Other banks with insurance divisions
The source gives no names, so a verified comparison cannot be made.
- Insurers applying IFRS 17
The source discusses application of the standard in general, not identified competing companies.
- Banks in Central and Eastern Europe
The source mentions markets where the Group has subsidiaries but does not identify competing banks there.
News & filings
In the press
- Intesa to Start €33 Billion Monte Paschi Bid Later This MonthBloomberg Markets · 02 Nov 2026 · EN
- Convocarea Adunării Generale ORDINARE a Acţionarilor Băncii Comerciale Intesa Sanpaolo Romania SA (07 / 08.12.2026)Libertatea.ro · 02 Nov 2026 · RO
- Monte Paschi Investors Reject Banco BPM Bid in Win For IntesaBloomberg Markets · 29 Oct 2026 · EN
- Intesa Sanpaolo are undă verde pentru a prelua cea mai veche bancă din lume, tranzacție de 32 de miliarde de euroProfit.ro · 28 Oct 2026 · RO
- Intesa Sanpaolo primeşte aprobarea BCE pentru preluarea Monte dei Paschi, într-o tranzacţie de 32 de miliarde de euro - News.roSurge — Google News · 28 Oct 2026 · RO
- Intesa Plans Risk Transfer Deal to Hedge $6 Billion in CreditsBloomberg Markets · 21 Oct 2026 · EN
- Paschi Top 10 Investor Goldstone Backs Intesa Takeover BidBloomberg Markets · 16 Oct 2026 · EN
- Roxana Hidan, CEO Intesa Sanpaolo Bank, vine la Profit Financial.forumProfit.ro · 02 Oct 2026 · RO
- Fraudă de proporții cu AI la una dintre cele mai mari bănci din Europa, prezentă și în România. 95 de milioane de euro transferate în conturile fraudatorilor de o divizie a Intesa Sanpaolo BankProfit.ro · 28 Sept 2026 · RO
- Fraudă spectaculoasă la Fideuram: fostul șef al diviziei de private banking a Intesa Sanpaolo, păcălit cu WhatsApp și o voce clonată cu AI. Au fost transferate 95 de milioane de euroFinancial Intelligence (RO) · 27 Sept 2026 · RO
- Monte Paschi Vows to Keep Up Bids Even If Intesa Takes It OverBloomberg Markets · 14 Sept 2026 · EN
- Intesa Investors Back Share Issue to Finance Monte Paschi BidBloomberg Markets · 10 Sept 2026 · EN
- Roxana Hidan este noul CEO al Intesa Sanpaolo Bank România. Anterior, a ocupat poziții de conducere în cadrul ProCredit și OTPEconomedia · 03 Sept 2026 · RO
- Intesa Sanpaolo Bank România are un nou CEOProfit.ro · 03 Sept 2026 · RO
- Roxana Hidan, fost executiv la OTP Bank România, preia conducerea Intesa Sanpaolo Bank România după fuziunea cu First BankZiarul Financiar · 03 Sept 2026 · RO
- Convocarea Adunării Generale ORDINARE a Acţionarilor Băncii Comerciale Intesa Sanpaolo Romania SA (16 / 17.09.2026)Libertatea.ro · 10 Aug 2026 · RO
- Grupul italian Intesa Sanpaolo, prezent şi în România: rezultate record în S1/2026. Profitul net a ajuns la 5,6 mld. euro. Carlo Messina, CEO: Am acordat finanţări de peste 44 mld. euro pentru susţinerea familiilor şi companiilorZiarul Financiar · 30 Jul 2026 · RO
- Intesa Sanpaolo raportează cel mai bun semestru din istorie: profit de 5,6 miliarde de euro și estimează peste 10 miliarde de euro câștig în 2026Economedia · 30 Jul 2026 · RO
- Paschi Casts Doubts Over Intesa Bid, Suggests Studying BPM PlanBloomberg Markets · 16 Jul 2026 · EN
- Speedwell semnează o finanţare de 21,5 mil. euro cu Intesa Sanpaolo Bank România pentru dezvoltarea unui ansamblu rezidenţial cu 237 de apartamente în zona Aviaţiei din CapitalăZiarul Financiar · 30 Jun 2026 · RO
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202230 May 2023
- Annual report 202230 May 2023
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2022-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. · 31 Dec 2022
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.