olivLaw · European equity research
KME Group S.p.A. KME.MI
Italy · Euronext Milan · ISIN IT0004552359 · Vertical: Listed companies from Italy
KME Group SpA is a Milan-based holding company controlling KME SE, a transformer of copper and copper alloy semi-finished and rolled products with a leading position in the global market. The company is relevant now because copper's role in electrification and the energy transition supports medium-term demand, while energy and raw material costs remain a pressure. This analysis is based on the 2024 annual report.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, KME Group S.p.A. (KME.MI) stock was 0.89 EUR (+0.57% on the day), with market capitalisation 253.3 m EUR, P/E 3.9 on diluted EPS of 0.23 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.32%, beta 0.11, 52-week range 0.82–1.02 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 49.5
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 0.86 – 0.90
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.63 · band width 5.4%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 0.90 / 0.89
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.01 / -0.01
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −1.7% | −0.6% | −1.0 pp | — |
| 3 months | 0.0% | −4.2% | +4.2 pp | — |
| 6 months | +1.7% | +4.3% | −2.6 pp | — |
| Year to date | +0.6% | +7.5% | −6.9 pp | — |
| 1 year | −1.7% | +9.9% | −11.6 pp | −6.1% |
| 3 years | −10.4% | +49.8% | −60.3 pp | +7.7% |
| 5 years | +156.5% | +42.8% | +113.7 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 4.0, median 4.8, max 9.8; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 0 | 1.4 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.6 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable | +34.3% | −16.8% |
| Net income | 65.3 m | 35.5 m | -40.3 m | -64.9 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −45.7% | −213.8% | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | 0.10 | 0.06 | -0.09 | 0.23 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −46.3% | −257.1% | unavailable |
| net % | unavailable | 2.5% | -2.1% | -4.1% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2024 · 31 Dec 2024
- Cash
- 181.2 m EUR
- Financial debt
- unavailable EUR
- Net debt
- unavailable EUR
- Equity
- 270.3 m EUR
- Total assets
- 2.0 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 0.67x
- ROE
- -20.6%
- ROA
- -3.4%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 0 | 1.4 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.6 bn | esef· 24 Sept 2025verified |
| Operating income | -6.3 m | 8.6 m | 32.8 m | 21.0 m | esef· 24 Sept 2025verified |
| Interest expense | 4.4 m | 33.6 m | 85.6 m | 102.5 m | esef· 24 Sept 2025verified |
| Pre-tax income | 63.9 m | 26.4 m | -46.5 m | -68.9 m | esef· 24 Sept 2025verified |
| Income tax | -1.5 m | -19.3 m | -18.0 k | 2.0 m | esef· 24 Sept 2025verified |
| Net income | 65.3 m | 35.5 m | -40.3 m | -64.9 m | esef· 24 Sept 2025verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.10 | 0.06 | -0.09 | 0.23 | esef· 24 Sept 2025verified |
| Dividend per share | — | — | 0.01 | — | esef· 24 Sept 2025derived |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 4.7 m | 128.8 m | 118.6 m | 181.2 m | esef· 24 Sept 2025verified |
| Inventories | 0 | 404.9 m | 374.2 m | 400.6 m | esef· 24 Sept 2025verified |
| Current assets | 41.9 m | 755.9 m | 668.7 m | 741.7 m | esef· 24 Sept 2025verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 3.5 m | 500.0 m | 529.2 m | 527.6 m | esef· 24 Sept 2025verified |
| Goodwill | — | — | 394.8 m | 394.4 m | esef· 24 Sept 2025verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 12.0 k | 424.1 m | 50.4 m | 46.2 m | esef· 24 Sept 2025verified |
| Total assets | 685.3 m | 2.1 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.0 bn | esef· 24 Sept 2025verified |
| Current liabilities | 35.7 m | 783.3 m | 790.4 m | 1.1 bn | esef· 24 Sept 2025verified |
| Equity | 551.7 m | 569.5 m | 358.8 m | 270.3 m | esef· 24 Sept 2025verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 426.0 m | 414.7 m | 286.3 m | — | esef· 24 Sept 2025derived |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 64.4 m | 104.0 m | 86.6 m | 138.7 m | esef· 24 Sept 2025verified |
| Investing cash flow | -74.8 m | -96.1 m | 11.6 m | -44.3 m | esef· 24 Sept 2025verified |
| Financing cash flow | -292.0 k | 12.2 m | -110.3 m | -33.7 m | esef· 24 Sept 2025verified |
| Dividends paid | — | — | 3.3 m | 34.0 k | esef· 24 Sept 2025verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 41.7% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 253.3 m EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
42% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 1.44 – 5.22 EUR.
Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E1.44 – 5.22 (Mid 3.03)20 companies used · median multiple 13.3x · quartiles 6.3x – 22.9xAC5.MI, ACE.MI, ADB.MI, AEF.MI, AMP.MI, ARN.MI, ASC.MI, BC.MI, BEC.MI, CAI.MI, CIR.MI, CLF.MI, CMB.MI, COM.MI, CRL.MI, CY4.MI, DEX.MI, DIA.MI, DLG.MI, DNR.MI
- Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate0.16 – 0.22 (Mid 0.18)a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 41.7% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | -4.1% | 8 (vs peers) | 15% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 29.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 20% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 0.2x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.7x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 3.9x | 86 (vs peers) | 25% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 0.0% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet0/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial8/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial86/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
KME GROUP S.P.A. (KME.MI). Latest full fiscal year: 2024; data up to 2024-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.6 bn EUR in 2024; YoY growth -16.8%; net margin -4.1%; ROE -25.2%.
The estimated value range is 1.44–5.22 EUR per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 3.03 EUR, the price of 0.89 EUR leaves a potential of 242.1% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 70.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 41.7% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 29.9%
- P/E (TTM): 3.9x
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- Net margin: -4.1%
- Interest coverage: 0.2x
- Current ratio: 0.7x
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.0%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Italy · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DLG.MIDe' Longhi S.p.a. | 6.8 bn | 21.5 | 15.4% | 8.4% | +8.7% | +24% / +60% |
| ACE.MIAcea S.p.a. | 4.6 bn | 9.6 | 18.2% | 16.6% | +0.2% | −4% / +73% |
| DIA.MIDiasorin S.p.a. | 4.3 bn | 28.3 | 9.2% | 13.0% | +0.8% | +31% / −7% |
| CRL.MICarel Industries S.p.a. | 2.9 bn | 39.5 | 16.1% | 11.7% | +8.7% | +3% / +10% |
| AMP.MIAmplifon S.p.a. | 2.7 bn | 29.9 | 8.5% | 3.8% | −0.6% | −9% / −58% |
| CMB.MICembre S.p.a. | 1.3 bn | 27.0 | 20.6% | 18.9% | +6.7% | +11% / +108% |
| COM.MIComer Industries S.p.a. | 1.3 bn | 18.6 | 12.8% | 7.1% | −23.0% | +8% / +64% |
| DNR.MIIndustrie De Nora S.p.a. | 1.1 bn | 13.4 | 8.6% | 9.4% | +1.4% | −22% / −62% |
| ARN.MIAlerion Clean Power S.p.a. In Forma Abbreviata Alerion S.p.a. | 969.2 m | 10.4 | 23.5% | 41.0% | +1.8% | −5% / −23% |
| AVIO.MIAvio S.p.a. | 883.6 m | 86.8 | 2.1% | 1.8% | +21.5% | +18% / +291% |
| CIR.MICir S.p.a. - Compagnie Industriali Riunite | 783.3 m | 6.0 | 17.1% | 7.3% | +1.6% | +4% / +72% |
| ASC.MIAscopiave S.p.a. | 646.3 m | 18.0 | 4.2% | 17.5% | +13.4% | −8% / +33% |
| AC5.MIAcinque S.p.a. | 412.6 m | 19.6 | 4.1% | 3.6% | +0.2% | −6% / +8% |
| BAN.MIBasic Net S.p.a. | 348.0 m | — | -4.9% | -3.5% | +0.4% | −30% / +5% |
| ADB.MIAeroporto Guglielmo Marconi Di Bologna S.p.a. | 324.7 m | 13.1 | 11.1% | 13.7% | +9.2% | −2% / +12% |
| CAI.MICairo Communication S.p.a. | 289.2 m | 6.4 | 8.1% | 4.4% | −1.3% | −22% / +28% |
| KME.MIKme Group S.p.a. | 253.3 m | 3.9 | -25.2% | -4.1% | −16.8% | −1% / −6% |
| ECNL.MIAquafil S.p.a. | 129.6 m | — | -3.2% | -0.9% | −3.9% | −1% / −52% |
| BEC.MIB&C Speakers S.p.a. | 118.7 m | 11.7 | 18.5% | 10.2% | −1.3% | −26% / −32% |
| ABT.MIAbitare In S.p.a. | 76.0 m | 276.0 | 0.4% | 0.4% | +39.8% | −6% / −47% |
| ELC.MIElica S.p.a. | 64.3 m | — | -7.8% | -2.2% | +1.9% | −34% / −48% |
| DEX.MIDexelance S.p.a. | 50.7 m | 2.8 | 11.0% | 5.4% | +12.6% | −63% / −78% |
| CLE.MIClass Editori S.p.a. | 35.1 m | — | -29.2% | -3.8% | −0.7% | −9% / +106% |
| CLF.MICaleffi - S.p.a. | 11.6 m | 5.2 | 10.9% | 3.8% | −2.5% | −4% / −10% |
| AEF.MIAeffe S.p.a. | 10.1 m | 0.5 | 21.9% | 7.7% | −21.3% | −59% / −86% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for KME.MI from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
KME Group SpA is a Milan-based holding company controlling KME SE, a transformer of copper and copper alloy semi-finished and rolled products with a leading position in the global market. The company is relevant now because copper's role in electrification and the energy transition supports medium-term demand, while energy and raw material costs remain a pressure. This analysis is based on the 2024 annual report 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- Preeminent position in copper rolled products, with an industrial network of production sites and service centres in Europe 1.
- Focus on recycled raw materials and recyclable products, supporting a sustainability profile and a more favourable CO2 balance 1.
- Mechanisms passing the metal price through to customers, which reduce exposure to metal price volatility for part of the business 1.
Weaknesses
- Dependence on energy and gas costs as an energy-intensive consumer, with a direct impact on margins 1.
- The 2024 result was affected by non-recurring costs after a section of the Fornaci di Barga plant stopped 1.
- Concentration of the holding's activity in one major subsidiary, KME SE, increasing exposure to a single segment 1.
Opportunities
- Copper demand for electrification and renewable energy could grow over the medium term 1.
- The EU Clean Industrial Deal could support decarbonisation investment by metal producers 1.
- Self-production of renewable energy and replacing gas in furnaces could reduce costs and emissions over the long term 1.
Risks
- Energy and gas costshigh
Rising energy and gas prices could materially affect economic and financial performance, given the group's energy-intensive status 1.
- Copper price volatilitymedium
Virgin metal and scrap prices could rise as a result of demand and environmental restrictions on mining 1.
- Climate regulation and EU ETSmedium
Changes to emission thresholds or the introduction of a carbon tax could raise operating costs 1.
- Workplace safetymedium
A fatal accident in 2024 led to a section stopping and non-recurring costs, underlining operational risk in production 1.
- Availability of recycled raw materiallow
Limited access to scrap could constrain the ability to replace virgin metal, according to the risk assessment in the report 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If copper demand for electrification materialises, the leading position in rolled products could support better medium-term results 1.
- A model that passes the metal price through to customers could limit margin volatility from the metal component 1.
- Investment in self-produced renewable energy could reduce energy costs over the long term 1.
What to watch
- Evolution of energy and gas costs in Italy and Germany2025
- Implementation of the Clean Industrial Deal plan for metallurgy2025
- Scrap availability and the trend in virgin copper prices2025
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
KME Group SpA, headquartered in Milan, is a holding company that holds and manages industrial interests, with KME SE as its main subsidiary. The group operates as a downstream transformer in the copper value chain, starting from virgin metal and scrap, and produces semi-finished products that are then hot or cold rolled 1. The holding also controls Culti Milano SpA, active in room fragrance diffusers and listed on the EGM segment since 2017 1.
The group's products are copper and copper alloy semi-finished and rolled products, made to a high degree from recycled and recyclable materials in line with circular economy principles 1. Customers are distributors and producers of industrial components serving sectors such as electrical and electronics, renewable energy, power transmission, automotive, telecoms, construction and plumbing 1.
In the 2024 report, the copper segment result was affected by non-recurring costs tied to managing supply after a section of the Fornaci di Barga plant stopped following a fatal accident in May 2024 1. The company describes a model in which the metal price is passed through to the customer, which limits exposure to metal price swings for part of the business 1.
Segments
Copper and rolled products (KME SE)
The main segment, covering copper and copper alloy rolled and semi-finished products operated through KME SE. The group states it holds a preeminent position in the global market and a portfolio focused on rolled products after several acquisitions and disposals 1.
Culti Milano (room fragrance)
Controlling stake in Culti Milano SpA, active in room fragrance diffusers with a focus on the reed diffuser product. It is separate from copper and listed on the Borsa Italiana EGM segment since 2017 1.
Market context
Global copper demand is expected to grow over the medium term, from more than 20 million tonnes today to about 30 million tonnes, supported by the shift to a green economy 1. The company considers that demand for copper rolled products, linked to electrification and sustainability requirements, shows no significant outlet risk 1.
Energy and gas prices are an important cost factor: rising electricity demand and restrictions on fossil-fuel electricity could push prices up, as could climate effects on gas 1. The group is qualified as an energy-intensive consumer in Italy and Germany and partly fixes prices by contract 1.
Trends
- Electrification and energy transitiontailwind
Copper is essential for renewable energy, energy efficiency and sustainable mobility, supporting medium-term demand for copper rolled products 1.
- Circular economy and recycled raw materialsmixed
Intensive use of scrap reduces dependence on virgin metal and the emissions tied to extraction, but limited availability of secondary raw material could create pressure 1.
- Energy and carbon costsheadwind
Rising energy, gas and carbon prices, including through the EU ETS and possible carbon taxes, could reduce the group's margins 1.
- European policy for the metals industrytailwind
The European Commission's Clean Industrial Deal and the sectoral plan for metallurgy could open opportunities for producers investing in decarbonisation 1.
Competitive position
The group presents itself as a leader in copper and copper alloy production, with a preeminent global position in rolled products, but the report does not detail specific competitors. Competition implies pressure on energy costs and access to recycled raw material 1.
- European copper rolled products producers
Competitors operating in the same European industrial markets, referenced only implicitly through sector associations in the report; not named in the source.
- Refined copper and virgin metal suppliers
Upstream actors in the copper chain whose influence on metal prices affects group costs, rather than direct transformation competitors.
- Scrap and metal recycling operators
Competition for secondary raw material supply, with an impact on scrap availability and price.
- Room fragrance diffuser producers
Competitors of the Culti Milano division, which operates in a market separate from copper.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202424 Sept 2025
- Annual report 202230 May 2023
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2024-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / KME Group S.p.A. · 31 Dec 2024
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.