olivLaw · European equity research
Neodecortech S.p.A. NDT.MI
Italy · Euronext Milan · ISIN IT0005275778 · Vertical: Listed companies from Italy
Neodecortech is an Italian group producing printed decorative paper and biomass energy, with consolidated revenue of 67.8 million EUR in 2025. The Lamitex acquisition completed in November 2025 changes the group's size and makes net debt and integration central themes for the coming period.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Neodecortech S.p.A. (NDT.MI) stock was 5.68 EUR (−1.73% on the day), with market capitalisation 77.0 m EUR, P/E 10.5 on diluted EPS of 0.54 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.00%, beta 0.39, 52-week range 3.08–5.78 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 61.8
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 5.16 – 5.69
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.98 · band width 9.7%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 5.39 / 4.45
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.08 / 0.04
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +5.6% | −0.6% | +6.2 pp | — |
| 3 months | +2.2% | −4.2% | +6.3 pp | — |
| 6 months | +49.9% | +4.3% | +45.5 pp | — |
| Year to date | +48.7% | +7.5% | +41.2 pp | — |
| 1 year | +86.8% | +9.9% | +76.9 pp | −6.1% |
| 3 years | +99.3% | +49.8% | +49.5 pp | +7.7% |
| 5 years | +29.7% | +42.8% | −13.1 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 67 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 7.1, median 9.7, max 16.3; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 161.6 m | 168.6 m | 184.1 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +4.3% | +9.2% |
| Net income | 2.8 m | 4.1 m | 7.3 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +42.5% | +80.6% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.20 | 0.29 | 0.54 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +45.0% | +86.2% |
| net % | 1.8% | 2.4% | 4.0% |
| Free cash flow | 7.8 m | -3.8 m | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 15.0 m EUR
- Financial debt
- unavailable EUR
- Net debt
- unavailable EUR
- Equity
- 86.8 m EUR
- Total assets
- 184.8 m EUR
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 1.43x
- ROE
- 8.7%
- ROA
- 4.1%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 161.6 m | 168.6 m | 184.1 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 34.9 m | 38.0 m | 43.5 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Operating income | 4.6 m | 7.5 m | 10.4 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 9.2 m | 9.1 m | 10.4 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 13.8 m ≈ | 16.6 m ≈ | 20.8 m ≈ | esef· 07 Apr 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 2.4 m | 2.7 m | 2.3 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 2.6 m | 5.2 m | 8.3 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Income tax | -241.0 k | 1.2 m | 985.0 k | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Net income | 2.8 m | 4.1 m | 7.3 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.20 | 0.29 | 0.54 | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.13 | 0.00 | — | esef· 24 Sept 2025derived |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 12.2 m | 12.5 m | 15.0 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Inventories | 42.6 m | 40.0 m | 45.2 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Current assets | 85.3 m | 93.7 m | 95.4 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 76.0 m | 74.5 m | 77.3 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 777.0 k | 3.3 m | 9.8 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Total assets | 164.8 m | 173.5 m | 184.8 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 56.3 m | 64.4 m | 66.6 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Equity | 77.5 m | 80.7 m | 86.8 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 14.2 m | 14.0 m | 13.6 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 13.8 m | 3.5 m | 21.8 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Capex | 6.0 m | 7.3 m | — | esef· 24 Sept 2025verified |
| Free cash flow | 7.8 m ≈ | -3.8 m ≈ | — | esef· 24 Sept 2025derived |
| Investing cash flow | -6.5 m | -10.1 m | — | esef· 24 Sept 2025verified |
| Financing cash flow | -7.2 m | 7.0 m | — | esef· 24 Sept 2025verified |
| Dividends paid | 1.9 m | 0 | — | esef· 24 Sept 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 77.0 m EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
52% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 3.40 – 12.34 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E3.40 – 12.34 (Mid 7.16)20 companies used · median multiple 13.3x · quartiles 6.3x – 22.9xAC5.MI, ACE.MI, ADB.MI, AEF.MI, AMP.MI, ARN.MI, ASC.MI, BC.MI, BEC.MI, CAI.MI, CIR.MI, CLF.MI, CMB.MI, COM.MI, CRL.MI, CY4.MI, DEX.MI, DIA.MI, DLG.MI, DNR.MI
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 4.0% | 41 (vs peers) | 12% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 198.2% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 4.5x | 47 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.4x | 53 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 10.5x | 64 (vs peers) | 20% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 18.8% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 16% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 0.0% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 0.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet49/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality71/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns40/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation80/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
NEODECORTECH S.P.A. (NDT.MI). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 184.1 m EUR in 2025; YoY growth 9.2%; net margin 4.0%; ROE 8.7%.
The estimated value range is 3.40–12.34 EUR per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 7.16 EUR, the price of 5.68 EUR leaves a potential of 26.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 20.6% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 198.2%
- FCF yield: 18.8%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 0.0%
What contradicts it
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.0%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Italy · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DLG.MIDe' Longhi S.p.a. | 6.8 bn | 21.5 | 15.4% | 8.4% | +8.7% | +24% / +60% |
| ACE.MIAcea S.p.a. | 4.6 bn | 9.6 | 18.2% | 16.6% | +0.2% | −4% / +73% |
| DIA.MIDiasorin S.p.a. | 4.3 bn | 28.3 | 9.2% | 13.0% | +0.8% | +31% / −7% |
| CRL.MICarel Industries S.p.a. | 2.9 bn | 39.5 | 16.1% | 11.7% | +8.7% | +3% / +10% |
| AMP.MIAmplifon S.p.a. | 2.7 bn | 29.9 | 8.5% | 3.8% | −0.6% | −9% / −58% |
| CMB.MICembre S.p.a. | 1.3 bn | 27.0 | 20.6% | 18.9% | +6.7% | +11% / +108% |
| COM.MIComer Industries S.p.a. | 1.3 bn | 18.6 | 12.8% | 7.1% | −23.0% | +8% / +64% |
| DNR.MIIndustrie De Nora S.p.a. | 1.1 bn | 13.4 | 8.6% | 9.4% | +1.4% | −22% / −62% |
| ARN.MIAlerion Clean Power S.p.a. In Forma Abbreviata Alerion S.p.a. | 969.2 m | 10.4 | 23.5% | 41.0% | +1.8% | −5% / −23% |
| AVIO.MIAvio S.p.a. | 883.6 m | 86.8 | 2.1% | 1.8% | +21.5% | +18% / +291% |
| CIR.MICir S.p.a. - Compagnie Industriali Riunite | 783.3 m | 6.0 | 17.1% | 7.3% | +1.6% | +4% / +72% |
| ASC.MIAscopiave S.p.a. | 646.3 m | 18.0 | 4.2% | 17.5% | +13.4% | −8% / +33% |
| AC5.MIAcinque S.p.a. | 412.6 m | 19.6 | 4.1% | 3.6% | +0.2% | −6% / +8% |
| BAN.MIBasic Net S.p.a. | 348.0 m | — | -4.9% | -3.5% | +0.4% | −30% / +5% |
| ADB.MIAeroporto Guglielmo Marconi Di Bologna S.p.a. | 324.7 m | 13.1 | 11.1% | 13.7% | +9.2% | −2% / +12% |
| CAI.MICairo Communication S.p.a. | 289.2 m | 6.4 | 8.1% | 4.4% | −1.3% | −22% / +28% |
| ECNL.MIAquafil S.p.a. | 129.6 m | — | -3.2% | -0.9% | −3.9% | −1% / −52% |
| BEC.MIB&C Speakers S.p.a. | 118.7 m | 11.7 | 18.5% | 10.2% | −1.3% | −26% / −32% |
| NDT.MINeodecortech S.p.a. | 77.0 m | 10.5 | 8.7% | 4.0% | +9.2% | +73% / +97% |
| ABT.MIAbitare In S.p.a. | 76.0 m | 276.0 | 0.4% | 0.4% | +39.8% | −6% / −47% |
| ELC.MIElica S.p.a. | 64.3 m | — | -7.8% | -2.2% | +1.9% | −34% / −48% |
| DEX.MIDexelance S.p.a. | 50.7 m | 2.8 | 11.0% | 5.4% | +12.6% | −63% / −78% |
| CLE.MIClass Editori S.p.a. | 35.1 m | — | -29.2% | -3.8% | −0.7% | −9% / +106% |
| CLF.MICaleffi - S.p.a. | 11.6 m | 5.2 | 10.9% | 3.8% | −2.5% | −4% / −10% |
| AEF.MIAeffe S.p.a. | 10.1 m | 0.5 | 21.9% | 7.7% | −21.3% | −59% / −86% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for NDT.MI from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 3.52 Total return -38% · Per year -38% | 6.20 Total return 9% · Per year 9% | 9.32 Total return 64% · Per year 64% |
| 3 years | 3.74 Total return -34% · Per year -13% | 7.39 Total return 30% · Per year 9% | 12.16 Total return 114% · Per year 29% |
| 5 years | 3.98 Total return -30% · Per year -7% | 8.82 Total return 55% · Per year 9% | 15.85 Total return 179% · Per year 23% |
- Exit P/E± 1.85
- Net margin± 1.29
- Annual revenue growth± 1.02
- Annual dilution± 0.11
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Neodecortech is an Italian group producing printed decorative paper and biomass energy, with consolidated revenue of 67.8 million EUR in 2025. The Lamitex acquisition completed in November 2025 changes the group's size and makes net debt and integration central themes for the coming period.
SWOT
Strengths
- Durable relationships with key customers and niche products, sometimes developed at the customer's request.
- The energy division has a high operating margin and contributes strongly to results.
- The leverage ratio fell from the prior year, supporting financial flexibility.
Weaknesses
- Decorative paper margins are under pressure from prices and product mix.
- Revenue depends on orders and a few major customers, making sales volatile.
- The Lamitex acquisition added debt and amortisation, and integration is still at an early stage.
Opportunities
- Integrating Lamitex could open more profitable market segments if cross-selling works.
- Investments in efficiency and automation could reduce unit costs.
- Artificial intelligence could bring operational gains if integrated into internal processes.
Threats
- Demand is cyclical and depends on final consumption, so a fall in consumption directly hits orders.
- Raw material and energy prices could rise faster than selling prices.
- Cyber risks and IT system outages could disrupt production.
Risks
- Customer concentrationhigh
A significant part of revenue comes from a few customers, and changes in those relationships could affect results.
- Raw material priceshigh
Rapid increases in raw material prices cannot always be passed on to selling prices, and the group uses no specific hedges.
- Lamitex integrationmedium
Integrating the new subsidiary and ERP system could bring extra costs and operating delays.
- Cyber risksmedium
IT outages or illicit use of artificial intelligence could affect business continuity.
- Environmental regulationlow
Industrial activity is subject to strict environmental and health laws, and breaches could lead to fines or restrictions.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If volumes keep growing and energy margins stay high, consolidated results could support a reduction of net debt.
- The Lamitex acquisition could become a growth driver if integration and synergies follow the plan.
- Durable customer relationships and niche products could protect the group from price competition.
What would break the thesis
- If selling prices stay under pressure, margins in the paper division could keep falling.
- Debt added through the acquisition and higher amortisation could limit financial flexibility if results weaken.
- A fall in end-market demand, tied to the economic cycle, could reduce orders and increase volatility.
What to watch
- Volume trend and price effect in decorative paperQ1 2027
- Lamitex integration and its contribution to EBITDA2027
- Payment of the 4 million EUR owed to Lamitex shareholders in 20262026
- Net debt to EBITDA trend after the acquisitionnext annual report
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Neodecortech's core activity is producing decorative paper, used mainly for furniture and panel finishes, and selling it in European and international markets. Besides this, the group produces energy through Bio Energia Guarcino and holds an interest in Cartiere di Guarcino, where it optimises continuous lines. In 2025 the group acquired 100% of Lamitex S.r.l., completed on 28 November 2025 1. Consolidated revenue of 67.8 million EUR in 2025 1.
By segment, the printed decorative paper division and the energy division contribute almost equally to gross revenue, but the operating margin is higher in energy. Most sales are made on order, which makes revenue sensitive to the volumes of key customers. The group funds investments from internal cash flow and bank loans, including a 7 million EUR loan agreed with Banca Popolare di Sondrio in July 2025 1.
Investments in tangible fixed assets were 7.97 million EUR in 2025, versus 7.33 million EUR in 2024 1, focused on new machinery and efficiency upgrades. The Lamitex acquisition also brought a brand and a new ERP system, whose amortisation raises structural costs.
Segments
Printed decorative paper
The division produces decorative paper for furniture and panels, with sales of 68.6 million EUR in 2025, up from 64.1 million EUR in 2024 1. It includes Lamitex from 28 November 2025, for the relevant period.
Guarcino energy
The biomass energy division recorded sales of 62.9 million EUR in 2025, with an EBITDA margin of 16.4% 1. It is the most profitable reported segment and contributes strongly to consolidated EBITDA.
Market context
According to the report, decorative paper markets are highly competitive on quality, innovation and price, and demand is cyclical and depends on final consumption. Export sales were 53.5% of the total in 2025 1, mostly in Europe, with growth in Asia.
Trends
- Price pressureheadwind
The price and mix effect was negative in 2025, and high competition limits margin recovery in decorative paper.
- Energy costsmixed
Energy and gas costs are a significant part of other operating costs, so energy price trends affect the paper division's margins.
- Investment 5.0 and 4.0 incentivestailwind
Grants for 5.0 and 4.0 investments support efficiency and are released to income over the assets' useful lives, shaping results over several years.
Competitive position
The group says it serves highly competitive markets, mainly against other high-ranking international groups. Its declared advantage lies in durable customer relationships and niche products, sometimes developed at the customer's request.
The report does not name competitors in the text, so market position cannot be directly compared with other producers from the source. Differentiation depends on innovation and quality, and investment in new production lines is the main declared tool.
- Other international decorative paper groups
The report mentions high-ranking international competitors without naming them.
- European decorative paper producers
Competition in Europe is described as intense on price, quality and innovation.
- Asian finish producers
The group grew sales in Asia, where local competition is not detailed in the source.
- Biomass energy suppliers
The energy division competes with other biomass energy producers, not named in the report.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202507 Apr 2026
- Annual report 202424 Sept 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Neodecortech S.p.A. · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.