olivLaw · European equity research
Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A. PSG.MC
Spain · BME Madrid · ISIN ES0175438003 · Vertical: Listed companies from Spain
Prosegur is an international security group providing guarding, cash transport and cash management services, along with alarm and security technology solutions. Its 2025 total revenue was 4,930,329 thousand euros, while its Australian and Argentine operations remain exposed to regulatory and inflation risks that could affect future results.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A. (PSG.MC) stock was 3.02 EUR (−1.31% on the day), with beta 0.49, 52-week range 2.48–3.30 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 51.8
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 2.93 – 3.17
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.39 · band width 7.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 2.96 / 2.81
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.01 / 0.02
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +3.4% | −0.6% | +4.1 pp | — |
| 3 months | +1.9% | −4.2% | +6.0 pp | — |
| 6 months | +11.4% | +4.3% | +7.1 pp | — |
| Year to date | +16.2% | +7.5% | +8.6 pp | — |
| 1 year | +14.6% | +9.9% | +4.7 pp | +6.7% |
| 3 years | +117.6% | +49.8% | +67.7 pp | +31.5% |
| 5 years | +18.6% | +42.8% | −24.2 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
EPS unavailable in the issuer's structured filings (e.g. a partnership reports per unit, not per share).
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.3 bn | 4.9 bn | 4.9 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +13.9% | +0.5% |
| Net income | 65.5 m | 78.1 m | 119.3 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +19.1% | +52.8% |
| Diluted EPS | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.4% |
| Free cash flow | 155.7 m | 221.6 m | 217.2 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 1.2 bn EUR
- Financial debt
- unavailable EUR
- Net debt
- unavailable EUR
- Equity
- 802.1 m EUR
- Total assets
- 4.9 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 1.00x
- ROE
- 14.0%
- ROA
- 2.5%
- FCF margin
- 4.4%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.3 bn | 4.9 bn | 4.9 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 3.3 bn | 3.7 bn | 3.8 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 1.0 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Operating income | 238.4 m | 290.1 m | 326.7 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 126.5 m | 146.8 m | 122.8 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 153.3 m | 185.7 m | 242.0 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Income tax | 74.8 m | 88.6 m | 101.9 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Net income | 65.5 m | 78.1 m | 119.3 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 440.4 m | 700.0 m | 1.2 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Receivables | 894.9 m | 1.0 bn | 973.1 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Inventories | 71.9 m | 74.8 m | 66.6 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Current assets | 1.5 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.3 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 634.4 m | 710.3 m | 696.2 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 672.6 m | 733.2 m | 703.4 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Total assets | 4.0 bn | 4.6 bn | 4.9 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 768.8 m | 870.2 m | 823.7 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 1.3 bn | 1.7 bn | 2.3 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 3.3 bn | 3.7 bn | 4.1 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Equity | 717.5 m | 898.1 m | 802.1 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 293.2 m | 352.5 m | 351.9 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Capex | 137.5 m | 130.9 m | 134.8 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 155.7 m ≈ | 221.6 m ≈ | 217.2 m ≈ | esef· 20 Oct 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -185.1 m | -169.0 m | -184.3 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -791.5 m | 103.4 m | 338.3 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 42.2 m | 90.5 m | 93.3 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 10.1 m | 0 | 8.0 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 5 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
27% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation method could be computed
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · input data missing
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · input data missing
no valuation method could be computed
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 2.4% | 38 (vs peers) | 23% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 182.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 23% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 2.7x | 18 (on a fixed band) | 23% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.0x | 17 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 42.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet17/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality69/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
PROSEGUR COMPAÑIA DE SEGURIDAD, S.A. (PSG.MC). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 4.9 bn EUR in 2025; YoY growth 0.5%; net margin 2.4%; ROE 15.6%.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 182.0%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 42.9%
What contradicts it
- Interest coverage: 2.7x
- Current ratio: 1.0x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Spain · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELE.MCEndesa SA | 46.9 bn | 21.4 | 26.4% | 10.5% | +0.5% | +43% / +134% |
| AENA.MCAena S.m.e. SA | 42.6 bn | 19.9 | 24.2% | 34.0% | +8.9% | +21% / +79% |
| AMS.MCAmadeus It Group Sociedad Anonima | 26.2 bn | 19.8 | 26.9% | 20.5% | +6.1% | −6% / −5% |
| ACS.MCAcs Actividades De Construccion Y Servicios, S.A. | 21.9 bn | 23.0 | 19.9% | 1.9% | +19.7% | +7% / +134% |
| ANA.MCAcciona SA | 11.7 bn | 14.5 | 16.9% | 4.0% | +5.5% | +24% / +66% |
| FCC.MCFomento De Construcciones Y Contratas S.A. | 5.0 bn | 30.3 | 5.3% | 1.7% | +6.9% | −8% / −14% |
| DIA.MCDistribuidora Internacional De Alimentacion SA | 2.7 bn | 20.6 | 165.6% | 2.2% | −2.7% | +51% / +380,733% |
| CMO.MCCementos Molins S.A. | 2.5 bn | 13.6 | 14.3% | 18.0% | −3.1% | +31% / unavailable |
| ENO.MCElecnor SA | 2.4 bn | 21.9 | 10.5% | 2.5% | +15.1% | −3% / +58% |
| ALM.MCAlmirall S.A. | 2.4 bn | 51.1 | 3.1% | 4.2% | +12.4% | −11% / +32% |
| FAE.MCFaes Farma SA | 1.5 bn | 19.3 | 10.8% | 13.0% | +23.7% | +3% / +57% |
| AEDAS.MCAedas Homes SA | 1.0 bn | 17.1 | 57.8% | 7.0% | −24.8% | +0% / +38% |
| EDR.MCEdreams Odigeo SA | 574.4 m | 11.5 | 21.0% | 7.8% | −0.4% | +40% / −24% |
| EAT.MCAmRest Holdings SE | 506.0 m | 31.4 | 4.3% | 0.6% | +0.1% | −34% / −61% |
| ADX.MCAudax Renovables S.A. | 468.5 m | 23.9 | 9.3% | 1.0% | −5.4% | −23% / −18% |
| ATRY.MCAtrys Health, S.A. | 200.4 m | — | -49.5% | -71.1% | +8.5% | −3% / −29% |
| ENER.MCEcoener, S.A. | 175.6 m | 32.2 | 4.2% | 6.4% | +3.6% | −34% / −6% |
| ADZ.MCAdolfo Dominguez SA | 62.9 m | 38.3 | 9.0% | 1.2% | +1.8% | +39% / +40% |
| DESA.MCDesarrollos Especiales De Sistemas De Anclaje S.A. | 44.8 m | 9.2 | 152.3% | 10.0% | +2.2% | +19% / unavailable |
| EZE.MCGrupo Ezentis SA | 29.0 m | — | — | -9.3% | +147.2% | −30% / −37% |
| CLEO.MCCompañia Levantina De Edificacion Y Obras Publicas SA | 17.3 m | 14.4 | 4.1% | 3.4% | +13.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AYC.MCAyco Grupo Inmobiliario, S.A. | 16.4 m | — | -33.8% | — | −100.0% | unavailable / unavailable |
| EBRO.MCEbro Foods, S.A. | 3.0 m | 0.0 | 10.0% | 7.7% | −4.0% | −0% / +19% |
| A3M.MCAtresmedia Corporacion De Medios De Comunicacion, S.A. | — | — | 7.9% | 6.9% | −2.7% | +13% / +60% |
| ACX.MCAcerinox SA | — | — | -1.7% | -0.7% | +6.8% | +27% / +54% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for PSG.MC from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Prosegur is an international security group providing guarding, cash transport and cash management services, along with alarm and security technology solutions. Its 2025 total revenue was 4,930,329 thousand euros, while its Australian and Argentine operations remain exposed to regulatory and inflation risks that could affect future results.
SWOT
Strengths
- Broad and diversified geographic presence across several continents, which reduces dependence on any single market.
- Recurring revenue from long-term service contracts with clients in the public and private sectors.
- Portfolio of stakes in security technology companies, which may support the development of new services.
Weaknesses
- The cost structure is dominated by labour, making margins sensitive to wage increases.
- Exposure to currencies and economies with high inflation, such as Argentina, creates volatility in results.
- The Australian business has an uncertain recoverable value, and impairments have been maintained.
Opportunities
- Developing integrated physical and digital security services could attract new clients.
- If an agreement on the new pricing model in Australia is reached, activity could return to a stable level.
- Streamlining internal programmes could reduce operating expenses over the medium term.
Threats
- A continued decline in cash demand could reduce the volume of cash-in-transit activities.
- Protectionist trade policies and geopolitical tensions may slow economic growth in the countries where the group operates.
- Competition from local and international providers could put pressure on pricing.
Risks
- Business continuity in Australiahigh
If no agreement on the new pricing model is reached with financial institutions, the continuity of the cash business could be called into question, with effects on the value of the stake.
- Hyperinflation in Argentinahigh
Developments in the local currency and inflation could materially affect revenues and costs translated into euros, with an impact on group results.
- Personnel costsmedium
Rising workforce costs, including restructuring severance, could reduce margins if not passed on to clients.
- Exposure to financial assetsmedium
The stake in Telefónica and other equity investments are measured at fair value, and their fluctuations affect other comprehensive income.
- Debt-related riskslow
Part of the debt structure carries variable interest, so a rise in financing costs could affect financial results.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the group succeeds in passing cost increases on to clients and maintains recurring contracts, service revenues could remain stable despite macroeconomic pressures.
- An agreement on the new pricing model in Australia could reduce uncertainty around the cash business and could support recovery of value.
- Efficiency programmes and geographic diversification could help the group sustain profitability over the medium term.
What would break the thesis
- A continued decline in cash demand could durably affect the cash-in-transit segment if the business model does not adapt sufficiently.
- Inflationary pressure and currency devaluation in unstable economies could reduce the value of revenues translated into euros.
- If personnel costs rise faster than tariffs, group margins could be compressed significantly.
What to watch
- Progress of negotiations on the new Australian pricing model and the competition authority's decision2026
- Inflation and the Argentine peso exchange rate, and their impact on euro-denominated revenuesQ1 2026
- Trend in personnel costs and restructuring severance in upcoming reporting periods2026
- Carrying value of the Telefónica stake and other equity investments in the next annual reportnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The Prosegur Group operates in private security, cash-in-transit, cash management and security technology, with operations across many countries in Latin America, Europe, Asia and Oceania. Revenue comes mainly from service provision, with equipment rental from alarm activities a smaller part. The group also holds investments in technology companies and funds, including a stake in Telefónica.
In 2025 service provision accounted for most of revenue, while goods sales declined compared with the prior year. The group continued efficiency programmes, which reduced other operating expenses, and opened fewer currency exchange outlets than in 2024.
Personnel costs are the main component of the cost structure, reflecting the labour-intensive nature of security services. For this reason, wage increases and restructuring severance have a direct effect on margins, and the group partly passes these increases on to clients.
Segments
Cash transport and management (Australia, Armaguard)
The Australian business, run through Armaguard, is currently negotiating with financial institutions and the competition authority over a new pricing model. The valuation scenarios depend on whether this model is accepted, and while cash demand is declining, the recoverable value remains under pressure with an impairment maintained.
Alarms and technology
Alarm activities include equipment rental and recurring services for clients. The group also holds a stake in Movistar Prosegur Alarmas, accounted for under the equity method, whose carrying value remains significant on the balance sheet.
Private security and client services
Guarding and security services are the group's largest segment, with long-term contracts with clients in several countries. Inflationary pressure and wage developments directly influence the profitability of these contracts.
Market context
The market for security and cash-in-transit services depends on economic activity and the banking sector in each country. In Argentina, high inflation and currency devaluation have significant effects on the translation of revenues into euros. In Australia, cash demand is falling, which changes the business model of cash transport.
The macroeconomic environment is marked by protectionist trade policies and geopolitical tensions that affect economic growth. The group considers the direct impact of these measures limited, because its costs are mainly labour rather than imported goods.
Trends
- Declining cash demandheadwind
Lower cash usage in many markets reduces the volume of transport and management services, which affects the Australian segment. If the decline continues, pressure on the pricing model could persist.
- Inflation in Argentinamixed
Hyperinflation and peso devaluation affect revenues translated into euros and local costs. The effect depends on exchange rate developments and on the ability to pass cost increases on to clients.
- Technology and digital securitytailwind
Demand for cybersecurity and integrated monitoring solutions is growing, which gives the group opportunities through its investments in start-ups in the field. The results of these investments remain uncertain.
- Workforce costsheadwind
Rising wages and restructuring severance increase personnel costs, which are the largest cost component. If the group cannot pass these increases on to clients, margins could be affected.
Competitive position
The private security market is fragmented, with local and regional competitors in each country of operation. In cash transport and cash management, competition depends on contracts with financial institutions and on the ability to offer integrated security and technology solutions.
The group differentiates itself through its broad geographic coverage and by combining physical services with security technology. Competitive pressure is greater in segments where demand is falling, such as cash handling.
- Brink'sBCO
US company with similar activities in cash-in-transit and security, with international presence.
- Allied Universal
Private security services provider active in several countries, not listed on a US exchange.
- G4S
International security services provider with comparable activity in several markets.
- Loomis
European cash-in-transit and cash management company, directly competing in some markets.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202520 Oct 2026
- Annual report 202408 May 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A. · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.