olivLaw · European equity research
Poste Italiane S.p.A. PST.MI
Italy · Euronext Milan · ISIN IT0003796171 · Vertical: Listed companies from Italy
Poste Italiane is Italy's largest postal service provider, also active in financial services, insurance, mobile and energy. Poste Mobile reached a 5.5% market share in September 2024, and the share rose 31.34% in 2024, which explains the growing interest in the company.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Poste Italiane S.p.A. (PST.MI) stock was 24.81 EUR (−0.24% on the day), with market capitalisation 32.1 bn EUR, P/E 16.1 on diluted EPS of 1.54 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 2.27%, beta 0.59, 52-week range 19.78–29.23 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 53.0
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 23.77 – 24.79
- above the upper band · %B 1.02 · band width 4.2%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 25.24 / 24.82
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.18 / -0.32
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +0.0% | −0.6% | +0.7 pp | — |
| 3 months | −9.2% | −4.2% | −5.1 pp | — |
| 6 months | +6.5% | +4.3% | +2.1 pp | — |
| Year to date | +15.5% | +7.5% | +8.0 pp | — |
| 1 year | +19.7% | +9.9% | +9.8 pp | −5.5% |
| 3 years | +158.9% | +49.8% | +109.1 pp | +8.9% |
| 5 years | +98.5% | +42.8% | +55.7 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 0.0, median 6.9, max 8.8; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Net income | 1.6 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.0 bn |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +21.8% | +3.7% |
| Diluted EPS | 1,214,000.00 | 1.48 | 1.54 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −100.0% | +3.8% |
| net % | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Free cash flow | -161.0 m | 1.0 bn | 2.4 bn |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2024 · 31 Dec 2024
- Cash
- unavailable EUR
- Financial debt
- unavailable EUR
- Net debt
- unavailable EUR
- Equity
- 11.7 bn EUR
- Total assets
- 277.1 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 18.0%
- ROA
- 0.7%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating income | 2.4 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.5 bn | esef· 24 Sept 2025verified |
| Interest expense | 126.0 m | 119.0 m | 120.0 m | esef· 24 Sept 2025verified |
| Pre-tax income | 2.4 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.7 bn | esef· 24 Sept 2025verified |
| Income tax | 850.0 m | 794.0 m | 658.0 m | esef· 24 Sept 2025verified |
| Net income | 1.6 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.0 bn | esef· 24 Sept 2025verified |
| Diluted EPS | 1,214,000.00 | 1.48 | 1.54 | esef· 24 Sept 2025verified |
| Dividend per share | 616,153.85 | 44.00 | 0.56 | esef· 24 Sept 2025verified |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 2.4 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.8 bn | esef· 24 Sept 2025verified |
| Total assets | 262.1 bn | 270.8 bn | 277.1 bn | esef· 24 Sept 2025verified |
| Accounts payable | 2.2 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.1 bn | esef· 24 Sept 2025verified |
| Equity | 7.9 bn | 10.4 bn | 11.7 bn | esef· 24 Sept 2025verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 1.3 k | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | esef· 24 Sept 2025derived |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 180.0 m | 1.4 bn | 2.9 bn | esef· 24 Sept 2025verified |
| Capex | 341.0 m | 373.0 m | 498.0 m | esef· 24 Sept 2025verified |
| Free cash flow | -161.0 m ≈ | 1.0 bn ≈ | 2.4 bn ≈ | esef· 24 Sept 2025derived |
| Investing cash flow | -1.6 bn | -994.0 m | -986.0 m | esef· 24 Sept 2025verified |
| Financing cash flow | -1.5 bn | -1.2 bn | -1.4 bn | esef· 24 Sept 2025verified |
| Dividends paid | 801.0 m | 883.0 m | 1.2 bn | esef· 24 Sept 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 41.7% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 32.1 bn EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
42% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 7.66 – 41.53 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E9.85 – 41.53 (Mid 20.70)21 companies used · median multiple 13.4x · quartiles 6.4x – 27.0xAC5.MI, ACE.MI, ADB.MI, AEF.MI, AMP.MI, ARN.MI, ASC.MI, BC.MI, BEC.MI, CAI.MI, CIR.MI, CLF.MI, CMB.MI, COM.MI, CRL.MI, CY4.MI, DEX.MI, DIA.MI, DLG.MI, DNR.MI, ELN.MI
- Dividend discount (DDM)7.66 – 10.44 (Mid 8.83)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 41.7% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 120.5% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 21.2x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 16.1x | 52 (vs peers) | 25% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 7.5% | 94 (on a fixed band) | 20% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 3.6% | 52 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 48.5% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns71/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation71/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
POSTE ITALIANE - SOCIETA' PER AZIONI (PST.MI). Latest full fiscal year: 2024; data up to 2024-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: ROE 18.2%.
The estimated value range is 8.76–25.99 EUR per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 14.77 EUR, the price of 24.81 EUR leaves a potential of -40.5% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -68.0% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 41.7% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 120.5%
- Interest coverage: 21.2x
- FCF yield: 7.5%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 48.5%
What contradicts it
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net margin, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Current ratio, EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Italy · same country · compared with 40 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DLG.MIDe' Longhi S.p.a. | 6.8 bn | 21.5 | 15.4% | 8.4% | +8.7% | +24% / +60% |
| ACE.MIAcea S.p.a. | 4.6 bn | 9.6 | 18.2% | 16.6% | +0.2% | −4% / +73% |
| DIA.MIDiasorin S.p.a. | 4.3 bn | 28.3 | 9.2% | 13.0% | +0.8% | +31% / −7% |
| CRL.MICarel Industries S.p.a. | 2.9 bn | 39.5 | 16.1% | 11.7% | +8.7% | +3% / +10% |
| AMP.MIAmplifon S.p.a. | 2.7 bn | 29.9 | 8.5% | 3.8% | −0.6% | −9% / −58% |
| ELN.MIEl.en. - S.p.a. | 1.3 bn | 30.3 | 10.9% | 7.3% | +4.2% | +26% / +73% |
| CMB.MICembre S.p.a. | 1.3 bn | 27.0 | 20.6% | 18.9% | +6.7% | +11% / +108% |
| COM.MIComer Industries S.p.a. | 1.3 bn | 18.6 | 12.8% | 7.1% | −23.0% | +8% / +64% |
| DNR.MIIndustrie De Nora S.p.a. | 1.1 bn | 13.4 | 8.6% | 9.4% | +1.4% | −22% / −62% |
| ARN.MIAlerion Clean Power S.p.a. In Forma Abbreviata Alerion S.p.a. | 969.2 m | 10.4 | 23.5% | 41.0% | +1.8% | −5% / −23% |
| AVIO.MIAvio S.p.a. | 883.6 m | 86.8 | 2.1% | 1.8% | +21.5% | +18% / +291% |
| CIR.MICir S.p.a. - Compagnie Industriali Riunite | 783.3 m | 6.0 | 17.1% | 7.3% | +1.6% | +4% / +72% |
| ASC.MIAscopiave S.p.a. | 646.3 m | 18.0 | 4.2% | 17.5% | +13.4% | −8% / +33% |
| AC5.MIAcinque S.p.a. | 412.6 m | 19.6 | 4.1% | 3.6% | +0.2% | −6% / +8% |
| BAN.MIBasic Net S.p.a. | 348.0 m | — | -4.9% | -3.5% | +0.4% | −30% / +5% |
| ADB.MIAeroporto Guglielmo Marconi Di Bologna S.p.a. | 324.7 m | 13.1 | 11.1% | 13.7% | +9.2% | −2% / +12% |
| CAI.MICairo Communication S.p.a. | 289.2 m | 6.4 | 8.1% | 4.4% | −1.3% | −22% / +28% |
| ECNL.MIAquafil S.p.a. | 129.6 m | — | -3.2% | -0.9% | −3.9% | −1% / −52% |
| BEC.MIB&C Speakers S.p.a. | 118.7 m | 11.7 | 18.5% | 10.2% | −1.3% | −26% / −32% |
| ABT.MIAbitare In S.p.a. | 76.0 m | 276.0 | 0.4% | 0.4% | +39.8% | −6% / −47% |
| ELC.MIElica S.p.a. | 64.3 m | — | -7.8% | -2.2% | +1.9% | −34% / −48% |
| DEX.MIDexelance S.p.a. | 50.7 m | 2.8 | 11.0% | 5.4% | +12.6% | −63% / −78% |
| CLE.MIClass Editori S.p.a. | 35.1 m | — | -29.2% | -3.8% | −0.7% | −9% / +106% |
| CLF.MICaleffi - S.p.a. | 11.6 m | 5.2 | 10.9% | 3.8% | −2.5% | −4% / −10% |
| AEF.MIAeffe S.p.a. | 10.1 m | 0.5 | 21.9% | 7.7% | −21.3% | −59% / −86% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for PST.MI from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Poste Italiane is Italy's largest postal service provider, also active in financial services, insurance, mobile and energy. Poste Mobile reached a 5.5% market share in September 2024 1, and the share rose 31.34% in 2024 1, which explains the growing interest in the company.
SWOT
Strengths
- The group has an extensive physical distribution network and a proprietary logistics platform, giving it a leading position in parcel distribution 1.
- Diversification across postal, financial, insurance and energy activities reduces dependence on a single sector 1.
- The share performed strongly in recent years, indicating investor confidence in the company's strategy 1.
Weaknesses
- Traditional postal service is declining, and letter revenue is in structural decline, requiring compensation from other sources 1.
- The complexity of operations and compliance obligations may increase the risk of non-compliance with regulators 1.
- Dependence on IT-intensive systems makes the company vulnerable to outages and cybersecurity incidents 1.
Opportunities
- Growth in e-commerce could support parcel volumes and logistics services 1.
- Expanding digital offers in financial services and insurance, including online channels, could attract new customers 1.
- The liberalised energy market could offer customer growth opportunities if the company retains its customers 1.
Risks
- Regulatory non-compliance riskhigh
The complexity of rules across the group's sectors could lead to fines, corrective actions or business suspension, affecting reputation and results 1.
- Cyber riskhigh
Disruption of IT systems could interrupt services, cause data loss or breach customer privacy 1.
- Competitive riskmedium
Intensifying competition in the group's sectors could reduce revenue and market share 1.
- Customer satisfaction riskmedium
If quality standards are not met, customer satisfaction may decline and strategic objectives may be only partly achieved 1.
- Financial and insurance riskmedium
BancoPosta, PostePay and Poste Vita are exposed to credit, liquidity, interest rate and market risks, supervised by authorities 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If e-commerce growth continues, parcel volumes could offset the decline in traditional mail and support group revenue 1.
- Diversification across several sectors and an extensive distribution network could support stability amid market change 1.
- The dividend policy and the strong 2024 share performance suggest the market has valued the company's strategy 1.
What would break the thesis
- Structural decline in traditional mail could pressure revenue from the universal postal service 1.
- Intensifying competition in financial services, insurance and mobile telephony could reduce market share and margins 1.
- Regulatory and cyber risks could lead to fines, extra costs and reputational damage if not managed properly 1.
What to watch
- Evolution of parcel volumes and e-commerce2025
- Final AGCOM decision on revoking regulation of mobile termination rates2025
- Payment of the balance of the 2024 dividend, scheduled for 23 June 20252025
- Launch of online insurance and financial services offers announced for 20252025
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The Poste Italiane Group operates in several sectors: postal services, integrated communication services, logistics, energy, financial services and insurance 1. The company holds the Universal Postal Service mandate, a public utility service, and added parcel delivery to its traditional mail business using a proprietary multi-channel logistics platform 1. Besides services, the company runs BancoPosta and a card business with 103 million active cards at 30 September 2024 1.
Strategic business units include Mail, Parcels and Distribution, Financial Services, Insurance Services and Postepay Services, and digital and third-party physical networks form part of the omnichannel strategy 1. The proposed dividend for 2024 is 1.08 euro per share, of which 0.33 euro was already paid as an interim dividend 1.
Poste Italiane S.p.A.'s profit for 2024 is 1,882,349,708 euro 1, and the Board proposes to allocate BancoPosta RFC's profit separately under the ring-fence rules 1.
Segments
Mail, Parcels and Distribution
This unit covers the Universal Postal Service and parcel distribution, in a context of e-commerce growth, supported by a proprietary logistics platform 1.
Financial Services and Postepay
Financial services, through BancoPosta and PostePay, include current accounts, cards, SEPA instant payments and postal savings products, with part of the digital offer being extended in 2025 1.
Insurance Services
The insurance unit, through the Poste Vita group, operates in life, protection, pensions and motor insurance, with online channels being extended 1.
Market context
The mobile telephony market remained broadly stable in 2024, with MVNOs growing and Poste Mobile accounting for 32% of MVNOs, with a 5.5% market share in September 2024 1. The energy retail market was fully liberalised for gas from 10 January 2024 and for electricity from 1 July 2024, leading to higher switching rates 1.
Gas prices rose in the second half of 2024, but levels and volatility stayed well below those of 2021-2023, as supply diversification improved 1.
Trends
- Decline of traditional mailmixed
The fall in letter volumes, replaced by digital communication, is partly offset by rising parcel volumes, which could support revenue if e-commerce growth continues 1.
- Growth of e-commercetailwind
The expansion of e-commerce and rising penetration at physical points support card transactions and parcel distribution, which could sustain volumes 1.
- Telecom regulationmixed
New AGCOM rules on termination rates, parental controls and customer care could change costs and operations at PostePay 1.
- Energy price volatilityheadwind
Geopolitical conditions and weather influence gas and electricity prices, which could affect the group's energy activity if volatility persists 1.
Competitive position
The group operates in competitive sectors and competes on technological innovation, quality, speed of delivery, price and reputation 1. In financial services BancoPosta faces a consolidating market, and in insurance the group faces bancassurance agreements between banks and insurers 1.
In postal services, Poste Italiane is the leader in parcel delivery, supported by its multi-channel logistics platform, but intensifying competition could reduce revenue and market share 1.
- Mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs)
The MVNO segment is growing and competes directly with Poste Mobile in mobile telephony, according to the source 1.
- Incumbent mobile operators
The stock of incumbent SIM cards declined in 2024, indicating competitive pressure from other providers 1.
- Parcel and logistics providers
Growth in e-commerce attracts many competitors in parcel distribution, as the source notes sector pressure 1.
- Banks and insurers (bancassurance)
Bancassurance agreements between banks and insurers compete with the group's insurance division, according to the source 1.
News & filings
In the press
- Serbie : Le président démissionne pour briguer le poste de Premier ministreSurge — GDELT DOC · 28 Sept 2026 · RO
- Équipe de France : Rayan Cherki évoque son nouveau poste sous Zinédine ZidaneSurge — GDELT DOC · 27 Sept 2026 · RO
- Telecom Italia Is Said to Consider €10.8 Billion Poste Bid FairBloomberg Markets · 17 Jul 2026 · EN
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202424 Sept 2025
- Annual report 202301 May 2024
- Annual report 202201 May 2024
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2024-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Poste Italiane S.p.A. · 31 Dec 2024
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.