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olivLaw · European equity research

TIM S.p.A. TIT.MI

Italy · Euronext Milan · ISIN IT0005712671 · Vertical: Listed companies from Italy

5.76EUR−1.00% · 1 dayClose 05 Nov 2026

TIM is Italy's leading telecommunications operator, providing fixed and mobile connectivity, digital services and ICT solutions, and it also operates in Brazil through TIM Brasil. In fiscal 2025 it reported higher like-for-like EBITDA After Lease, but it remains under pressure from prices, new competitors and the separation of its fixed network into FiberCop. The figures of total assets and organic EBITDA are the key reference points.

At the close of 05 Nov 2026, TIM S.p.A. (TIT.MI) stock was 5.76 EUR (−1.00% on the day), with market capitalisation 117.1 bn EUR, P/E 576.1 on diluted EPS of 0.01 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.14%, beta 0.73, 52-week range 4.68–8.14 EUR.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
117.1 bn EUR
shares as of 31 Dec 2024
P/E (TTM)
576.1
Diluted EPS TTM 0.01 · TTM to 31 Dec 2025
E/P (TTM)
0.17%
TTM to 31 Dec 2025
Dividend yield
0.14%
DPS 12m 0.01
Beta (2y)
0.73
Volatility (1y) 28%
52-week range
4.688.14

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
40.5
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
5.50 – 5.85
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.76 · band width 6.1%
SMA 50 / 200
6.62 / 6.88
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.22 / -0.30
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyEURO STOXX 50vs EURO STOXX 50Vertical median
1 month−4.5%−0.6%−3.8 pp—
3 months−24.3%−4.2%−20.1 pp—
6 months−16.4%+4.3%−20.7 pp—
Year to date+12.1%+7.5%+4.6 pp—
1 year+18.0%+9.9%+8.1 pp−6.1%
3 years+129.5%+49.8%+79.7 pp+7.7%
5 years+68.8%+42.8%+26.0 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−32.6%
01 Jul 2026 → 12 Oct 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−65.5%
24 Nov 2021 → 12 Oct 2022
Compound annual growth (5y)
+11.0%
EURO STOXX 50 +7.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 1-quarter history (min 513.8, median 513.8, max 513.8; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year202320242025
Revenue14.3 bn13.7 bn13.7 bn
Revenue YoYunavailable−4.6%+0.6%
Net income-1.4 bn-610.0 m297.0 m
Net income YoYunavailableunavailableunavailable
Diluted EPS-0.07-0.030.01
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailableunavailable
net %-10.1%-4.5%2.2%
Free cash flow2.2 bn2.0 bn1.5 bn

Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
2.0 bn EUR
Financial debt
11.0 bn EUR
Net debt
9.0 bn EUR
Equity
13.5 bn EUR
Total assets
36.7 bn EUR
Debt / equity
0.82x
Current ratio
0.91x
ROE
2.2%
ROA
0.8%
FCF margin
11.0%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (EUR)

Margins

Income statement · EUR

Revenue
2023
14.3 bn
2024
13.7 bn
2025
13.7 bn

esef· 24 Mar 2026verified

Operating income
2023
1.3 bn
2024
1.7 bn
2025
1.6 bn

esef· 24 Mar 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
3.3 bn
2024
3.1 bn
2025
2.9 bn

esef· 24 Mar 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
4.6 bn ≈
2024
4.7 bn ≈
2025
4.5 bn ≈

esef· 24 Mar 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
2.6 bn
2024
2.4 bn
2025
1.8 bn

esef· 24 Mar 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
-38.0 m
2024
412.0 m
2025
707.0 m

esef· 24 Mar 2026verified

Income tax
2023
56.0 m
2024
178.0 m
2025
112.0 m

esef· 24 Mar 2026verified

Net income
2023
-1.4 bn
2024
-610.0 m
2025
297.0 m

esef· 24 Mar 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
-0.07
2024
-0.03
2025
0.01

esef· 24 Mar 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
0.01
2024
0.01
2025
—

esef· 24 Sept 2025derived

Balance sheet · EUR

Cash
2023
2.9 bn
2024
2.9 bn
2025
2.0 bn

esef· 24 Mar 2026verified

Receivables
2023
4.7 bn
2024
4.1 bn
2025
5.3 bn

esef· 24 Mar 2026verified

Inventories
2023
345.0 m
2024
297.0 m
2025
235.0 m

esef· 24 Mar 2026verified

Current assets
2023
10.9 bn
2024
9.2 bn
2025
10.5 bn

esef· 24 Mar 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
14.7 bn
2024
4.6 bn
2025
4.1 bn

esef· 24 Mar 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
19.2 bn
2024
11.0 bn
2025
11.0 bn

esef· 24 Mar 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
7.1 bn
2024
6.0 bn
2025
5.4 bn

esef· 24 Mar 2026verified

Total assets
2023
62.2 bn
2024
37.7 bn
2025
36.7 bn

esef· 24 Mar 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
5.8 bn
2024
3.9 bn
2025
3.0 bn

esef· 24 Mar 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
21.3 bn
2024
8.7 bn
2025
8.0 bn

esef· 24 Mar 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
16.0 bn
2024
11.5 bn
2025
11.5 bn

esef· 24 Mar 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
44.6 bn
2024
24.3 bn
2025
23.3 bn

esef· 24 Mar 2026verified

Equity
2023
17.5 bn
2024
13.4 bn
2025
13.5 bn

esef· 24 Mar 2026verified

Shares outstanding at year end
2023
20.6 bn
2024
20.3 bn
2025
—

esef· 24 Mar 2026derived

Cash flow · EUR

Operating cash flow
2023
3.5 bn
2024
3.2 bn
2025
2.5 bn

esef· 24 Mar 2026verified

Capex
2023
1.3 bn
2024
1.1 bn
2025
1.0 bn

esef· 24 Mar 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
2.2 bn ≈
2024
2.0 bn ≈
2025
1.5 bn ≈

esef· 24 Mar 2026derived

Dividends paid
2023
273.0 m
2024
159.0 m
2025
273.0 m

esef· 24 Mar 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
0.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
unavailable
input data missing
Revenue CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT growth (YoY)
-6.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
input data missing
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
EPS growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
input data missing
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
FCF growth (YoY)
-25.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
32.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EBIT margin
11.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net margin
2.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
FCF margin
11.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Returns

ROE
2.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
ROA
0.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
ROIC
5.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
ROCE
6.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Payout ratio (EPS)
78.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Payout ratio (FCF)
18.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Balance sheet

Net debt
9.0 bn EUR
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Net debt / EBITDA
2.0x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Debt / equity
0.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Interest coverage
0.9x
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Liquidity

Current ratio
0.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Quick ratio
0.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Cash ratio
0.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025

Cash

Operating cash flow
2.5 bn EUR
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Capital expenditure
1.0 bn EUR
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Free cash flow
1.5 bn EUR
computed by olivLawFY 2025
FCF conversion
509.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Cash conversion
56.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
126 days
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
117.1 bn EUR
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Enterprise value
126.1 bn EUR
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Market cap / net income TTM
394.4x
computed by olivLawFY 2025
P/E (TTM)
576.1x
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Earnings yield
0.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
P/B
9.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
P/S
8.5x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
EV/EBITDA
28.0x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
EV/EBIT
80.6x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
EV/Sales
9.2x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
P/FCF
77.4x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
FCF yield
1.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Dividend yield
0.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Shareholder yield (distributions)
0.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Unattractive profile

Score: 22 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

score < 40

Closing price

5.76 EUR

05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 117.1 bn EUR

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
117.1 bn EUR
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
P/E (TTM)
576.1x
computed by olivLawFY 2025
P/B
9.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
EV/EBITDA
28.0x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
ROE
2.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Net margin
2.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue growth (YoY)
0.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
0.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Coverage and freshness

28/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 31 Dec 2025
Latest balance sheet date: 31 Dec 2025
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 31 Dec 2024
Source: esefpublished 24 Mar 2026
verified 80derived 4

Score by group

  • Quality55
  • Returns42
  • Balance sheet2
  • Valuation5

Estimated value range

Low
0.46
EUR per share
Mid
0.75
EUR per share
High
0.94
EUR per share
Price: 5.76 EUR
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -87.0% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -670.3% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: low · 4 methods used · 3 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 0.06 – 2.71 EUR.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (EUR per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)1.54 – 2.71 (Mid 1.98)
    WACC 8.1% · starting FCFF 3.1 bn EUR · terminal value share of EV 75%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA0.81 – 1.65 (Mid 1.36)
    7 companies used · median multiple 8.1x · quartiles 5.6x – 9.4x
    ASC.MI, AVIO.MI, BAN.MI, COM.MI, DEX.MI, DLG.MI, ELC.MI
  • Peers: P/E0.06 – 0.23 (Mid 0.13)
    20 companies used · median multiple 13.3x · quartiles 6.3x – 22.9x
    AC5.MI, ACE.MI, ADB.MI, AEF.MI, AMP.MI, ARN.MI, ASC.MI, BC.MI, BEC.MI, CAI.MI, CIR.MI, CLF.MI, CMB.MI, COM.MI, CRL.MI, CY4.MI, DEX.MI, DIA.MI, DLG.MI, DNR.MI
  • Dividend discount (DDM)0.11 – 0.14 (Mid 0.12)

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
3.0%
Equity risk premium
5.5%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
8.5%
Terminal growth
2.0%

Factor scorecard

Unattractive profile · Score 22/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality5.8%43 (vs peers)13%
Net margin · Quality2.2%31 (vs peers)8%
FCF conversion · Quality509.8%100 (on a fixed band)8%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet2.0x0 (vs peers)13%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet0.9x0 (on a fixed band)8%
Current ratio · Balance sheet0.9x9 (on a fixed band)5%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation576.1x0 (vs peers)13%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation28.0x0 (vs peers)13%
FCF yield · Valuation1.3%16 (on a fixed band)10%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns0.2%3 (on a fixed band)8%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns18.0%100 (on a fixed band)5%

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet2/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Quality55/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns42/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation5/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

TELECOM ITALIA SPA O TIM S.P.A. (TIT.MI). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 13.7 bn EUR in 2025; YoY growth 0.6%; net margin 2.2%; ROE 2.5%; net debt/EBITDA 2.0x.

The estimated value range is 0.46–0.94 EUR per share (median of 4 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 0.75 EUR, the price of 5.76 EUR leaves a potential of -87.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -670.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 22/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • FCF conversion: 509.8%
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 18.0%

What contradicts it

  • Net debt / EBITDA: 2.0x
  • Interest coverage: 0.9x
  • Current ratio: 0.9x
  • P/E (TTM): 576.1x
  • EV/EBITDA: 28.0x
  • FCF yield: 1.3%
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.2%
  • The price is above the estimated value range
  • The valuation methods diverge

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y.

Versus the vertical median

Listed companies from Italy · same country · compared with 39 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
576.1x
vertical median 15.7x
above median (+3,560.0%)
EV/EBITDA
28.0x
vertical median 8.1x
above median (+243.7%)
P/S
8.5x
vertical median 1.1x
above median (+660.2%)
P/B
9.6x
vertical median 1.1x
above median (+787.5%)
ROE
2.5%
vertical median 8.5%
below median (−71.1%)
Net margin
2.2%
vertical median 6.2%
below median (−65.2%)
EBIT margin
11.4%
vertical median 9.5%
above median (+20.1%)
Revenue YoY
0.6%
vertical median 0.4%
above median (+39.0%)
Net debt/EBITDA
2.0x
vertical median 0.5x
above median (+333.9%)
Dividend yield
0.1%
vertical median 3.7%
below median (−96.3%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
TIT.MITelecom Italia Spa O Tim S.p.a.117.1 bn576.12.5%2.2%+0.6%+19% / +116%
DLG.MIDe' Longhi S.p.a.6.8 bn21.515.4%8.4%+8.7%+24% / +60%
ACE.MIAcea S.p.a.4.6 bn9.618.2%16.6%+0.2%−4% / +73%
DIA.MIDiasorin S.p.a.4.3 bn28.39.2%13.0%+0.8%+31% / −7%
CRL.MICarel Industries S.p.a.2.9 bn39.516.1%11.7%+8.7%+3% / +10%
AMP.MIAmplifon S.p.a.2.7 bn29.98.5%3.8%−0.6%−9% / −58%
CMB.MICembre S.p.a.1.3 bn27.020.6%18.9%+6.7%+11% / +108%
COM.MIComer Industries S.p.a.1.3 bn18.612.8%7.1%−23.0%+8% / +64%
DNR.MIIndustrie De Nora S.p.a.1.1 bn13.48.6%9.4%+1.4%−22% / −62%
ARN.MIAlerion Clean Power S.p.a. In Forma Abbreviata Alerion S.p.a.969.2 m10.423.5%41.0%+1.8%−5% / −23%
AVIO.MIAvio S.p.a.883.6 m86.82.1%1.8%+21.5%+18% / +291%
CIR.MICir S.p.a. - Compagnie Industriali Riunite783.3 m6.017.1%7.3%+1.6%+4% / +72%
ASC.MIAscopiave S.p.a.646.3 m18.04.2%17.5%+13.4%−8% / +33%
AC5.MIAcinque S.p.a.412.6 m19.64.1%3.6%+0.2%−6% / +8%
BAN.MIBasic Net S.p.a.348.0 m—-4.9%-3.5%+0.4%−30% / +5%
ADB.MIAeroporto Guglielmo Marconi Di Bologna S.p.a.324.7 m13.111.1%13.7%+9.2%−2% / +12%
CAI.MICairo Communication S.p.a.289.2 m6.48.1%4.4%−1.3%−22% / +28%
ECNL.MIAquafil S.p.a.129.6 m—-3.2%-0.9%−3.9%−1% / −52%
BEC.MIB&C Speakers S.p.a.118.7 m11.718.5%10.2%−1.3%−26% / −32%
ABT.MIAbitare In S.p.a.76.0 m276.00.4%0.4%+39.8%−6% / −47%
ELC.MIElica S.p.a.64.3 m—-7.8%-2.2%+1.9%−34% / −48%
DEX.MIDexelance S.p.a.50.7 m2.811.0%5.4%+12.6%−63% / −78%
CLE.MIClass Editori S.p.a.35.1 m—-29.2%-3.8%−0.7%−9% / +106%
CLF.MICaleffi - S.p.a.11.6 m5.210.9%3.8%−2.5%−4% / −10%
AEF.MIAeffe S.p.a.10.1 m0.521.9%7.7%−21.3%−59% / −86%

1- and 3-year price returns: for TIT.MI from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (EUR)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
4.78
Total return -17% · Per year -17%
8.46
Total return 47% · Per year 47%
12.77
Total return 122% · Per year 122%
3 years
4.28
Total return -25% · Per year -9%
8.57
Total return 49% · Per year 14%
14.24
Total return 148% · Per year 35%
5 years
3.83
Total return -33% · Per year -8%
8.67
Total return 51% · Per year 9%
15.88
Total return 177% · Per year 23%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 2.14
  • Net margin± 1.50
  • Annual revenue growth± 1.28
  • Annual dilution± 0.13

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

TIM is Italy's leading telecommunications operator, providing fixed and mobile connectivity, digital services and ICT solutions, and it also operates in Brazil through TIM Brasil. In fiscal 2025 it reported higher like-for-like EBITDA After Lease, but it remains under pressure from prices, new competitors and the separation of its fixed network into FiberCop. The figures of total assets and organic EBITDA are the key reference points 1.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The group has an extensive proprietary infrastructure, a substantial patent portfolio and a leading position in fixed and mobile connectivity in Italy 1.
  • Innovation activity is supported by a large research workforce and an open partner ecosystem 1.
  • Higher like-for-like EBITDA After Lease in 2025 shows the group's ability to improve operating results 1.

Weaknesses

  • Reliance on FiberCop for wholesale access to the fixed network limits the group's control over fixed service quality 1.
  • Net financial debt, although declining, remains significant and limits financial flexibility 1.
  • Headcount reductions in Italy and abroad may affect execution capacity in network projects 1.

Opportunities

  • The cloud market for public administration and companies offers growth potential, through the stake in Polo Strategico Nazionale 1.
  • Integrated connectivity and digital service offers could strengthen relationships with retail and SME customers 1.
  • The Brazilian market still has room for revenue growth in digital services and broadband 1.

Threats

  • Price pressure and intensified competition could reduce the group's margins and market share 1.
  • New tariffs and geopolitical tensions could raise the cost of equipment and energy 1.
  • Satellite operators and eSIM could weaken traditional barriers to entry and customer retention 1.

Risks

  • Competitive pressure on priceshigh

    Competition and deflationary price dynamics could reduce market share and profitability, especially after the Fastweb and Vodafone combination 1.

  • Dependence on FiberCophigh

    If FiberCop wholesale services are inadequate or interrupted, the group might not be able to deliver fixed services to customers 1.

  • Equipment costs and supply chainsmedium

    New customs tariffs and international tensions could raise ICT and energy costs, with effects on margins 1.

  • 5G investment and implementation delaysmedium

    Delays or inefficiencies in deploying 5G and next-generation networks could affect the return on investment 1.

  • Artificial intelligence and security risksmedium

    Use of artificial intelligence solutions involves compliance, data privacy and cybersecurity risks, with economic and reputational impact 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If the higher EBITDA After Lease seen in 2025 is sustained, the group could turn the stabilisation of operations into a lasting improvement in results 1.
  • If the cloud market for the public sector develops, the stake in Polo Strategico Nazionale could become a new source of revenue 1.
  • A substantial patent portfolio and a well-structured innovation activity can support differentiation from competitors over the long term 1.

What would break the thesis

  • If price pressure persists, margins could stay under pressure even with stable demand 1.
  • Dependence on a single fixed-network supplier and the remaining financial debt could limit the group's flexibility in the face of shocks 1.
  • If new satellite operators and eSIM win customers, the group could lose market share in mobile and broadband segments 1.

What to watch

  • Trend in EBITDA After Lease and Equity Free Cash Flow After LeaseQ1 2027
  • Terms of the service contract with FiberCop and any changes to tariffs2027
  • Evolution of market shares after the Fastweb and Vodafone combination and Poste Italiane taking control2027
  • Impact of customs tariffs and energy costs on marginsnext 10-K

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

The TIM Group supplies fixed and mobile connectivity, network services, digital solutions and ICT services to retail customers, enterprises and the public administration. According to the 2025 annual report, the group had an average paid headcount of 22,410 excluding discontinued operations, and total assets of 36,734 million EUR at 31 December 2025 1. Its activity is mainly in Italy (Domestic) and in Brazil through TIM Brasil 1.

After the sale of the network (NetCo), FiberCop took over the fixed infrastructure and became the group's main wholesale supplier of ADSL, FTTC and FTTH connectivity, which changed the fixed business model 1. The group relies on technology partners, equipment suppliers and subcontractors for maintenance and call centres 1. It also holds a 45% stake in Polo Strategico Nazionale, dedicated to cloud services for public administration 1.

Innovation is a core pillar, focusing on artificial intelligence, cloud and edge computing, 5G networks, Internet of Things, cybersecurity and a digital platform for consumer and SME customers. At 31 December 2025 the group had more than 2,200 patent applications or granted patents and a portfolio of more than 440 patented inventions 1.

Segments

Brazil (TIM Brasil)

The Brazil segment reported higher EBITDA After Lease in 2025, supported by growth in local operations, in a highly competitive market with several mobile and broadband operators 1. Headcount at 31 December 2025 was 8,702 1.

Market context

The Italian telecommunications market remains highly competitive, with persistent pressure on prices that has lasted more than a decade, according to the report 1. The combination of Fastweb and Vodafone created an operator of comparable size to TIM, while in Brazil the market is shaped by several national operators and virtual operators (MVNO) 1. Growth in cloud services for the public and private sectors offers an opportunity but also attracts new entrants 1.

The ICT and cloud services market keeps growing, and the continuous entry of new national and international players is changing the balance of the market 1. Infrastructure cost pressure rises with the traffic generated by OTT services and artificial intelligence applications 1.

Trends

  • Deflationary price pressureheadwind

    Telecom prices have been falling for more than a decade, which limits average revenue per customer and could reduce margins if costs do not fall in parallel 1.

  • Rising demand for cloud and digital servicestailwind

    Growth in cloud services for public administration and companies opens opportunities, through the stake in Polo Strategico Nazionale and investment in data centres 1.

  • New forms of competition: eSIM and satellitemixed

    Lower switching barriers through eSIM and the expansion of LEO satellite networks could increase contestability of the market, but also open new distribution channels 1.

  • Investment in 5G and artificial intelligencemixed

    Investment in 5G, next-generation networks and artificial intelligence is needed to stay competitive, but could weigh on returns if implementation is delayed 1.

Competitive position

Competitors include mobile and broadband operators in Brazil, virtual operators (MVNO), Iliad, the new entity created by the Fastweb and Vodafone combination, and energy and insurance multi-utilities that offer bundled packages 1. LEO satellite operators can offer broadband services comparable with terrestrial ones 1.

In ICT and cloud, competition comes from national and international providers that keep entering the market, while in digital services it comes from OTT platforms 1. Losing market share to these players could affect the group's margins 1.

  • Fastweb and Vodafone Italia

    Operator resulting from the integration of Fastweb with Vodafone, of comparable size to TIM, which may intensify competition for customers 1.

  • Iliad

    Operator with an aggressive pricing strategy that erodes the market shares of infrastructure-based operators 1.

  • LEO satellite operators

    Broadband connectivity providers via satellite, with performance close to terrestrial networks and possible regulatory advantages over terrestrial operators 1.

  • Energy and insurance multi-utilities

    Companies offering bundled connectivity, energy and insurance packages that can attract consumer customers 1.

News & filings

In the press

Annual reports (ESEF)

Sources

  1. [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / TIM S.p.A. · 31 Dec 2025

Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.