olivLaw · European equity research
TERNA - RETE ELETTRICA NAZIONALE SOCIETA' PER AZIONI (IN FORMA ABBREVIATA 'TERNA S.P.A.') TRN.MI
Italy · Euronext Milan · ISIN IT0003242622 · Vertical: Listed companies from Italy
Terna runs Italy's national high-voltage transmission grid, balancing supply and demand in real time and connecting new capacity, including renewables. The company sits at the centre of Italy's energy transition, with an investment plan of over 23 billion euros for 2025-2034. In 2024, renewables covered 41.2% of national demand.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, TERNA - RETE ELETTRICA NAZIONALE SOCIETA' PER AZIONI (IN FORMA ABBREVIATA 'TERNA S.P.A.') (TRN.MI) stock was 9.86 EUR (+1.21% on the day), with market capitalisation 20.0 bn EUR, P/E 18.9 on diluted EPS of 0.52 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 120.89%, beta 0.13, 52-week range 8.71–10.39 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 70.1
- overbought (≥ 70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 9.10 – 9.83
- above the upper band · %B 1.05 · band width 7.7%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 9.36 / 9.81
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.11 / 0.07
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +7.9% | −0.6% | +8.5 pp | — |
| 3 months | −1.9% | −4.2% | +2.3 pp | — |
| 6 months | −1.1% | +4.3% | −5.5 pp | — |
| Year to date | +8.9% | +7.5% | +1.4 pp | — |
| 1 year | +9.5% | +9.9% | −0.4 pp | −6.1% |
| 3 years | +33.8% | +49.8% | −16.0 pp | +7.7% |
| 5 years | +47.6% | +42.8% | +4.8 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 2-quarter history (min 14.6, median 16.1, max 17.6; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.1 bn | 3.6 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +15.8% |
| Net income | 885.4 m | 1.1 bn |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +19.9% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.43 | 0.52 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +22.2% |
| net % | 28.4% | 29.4% |
| Free cash flow | -963.9 m | -889.2 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2024 · 31 Dec 2024
- Cash
- 2.3 bn EUR
- Financial debt
- 13.1 bn EUR
- Net debt
- 10.8 bn EUR
- Equity
- 7.5 bn EUR
- Total assets
- 27.2 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- 1.73x
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 15.3%
- ROA
- 4.2%
- FCF margin
- -24.6%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.1 bn | 3.6 bn | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Operating income | 1.4 bn | 1.7 bn | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Interest expense | 235.8 m | 332.1 m | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Pre-tax income | 1.2 bn | 1.5 bn | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Income tax | 364.3 m | 455.0 m | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Net income | 885.4 m | 1.1 bn | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.43 | 0.52 | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.32 | 11.92 | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.4 bn | 2.3 bn | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Inventories | 75.0 m | 108.2 m | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 17.6 bn | 19.2 bn | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Goodwill | 252.3 m | 250.9 m | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 614.9 m | 731.3 m | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Total assets | 23.4 bn | 27.2 bn | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Short-term debt | 1.2 bn | 1.7 bn | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Long-term debt | 9.4 bn | 11.4 bn | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Current liabilities | 6.3 bn | 6.9 bn | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Equity | 6.3 bn | 7.5 bn | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 2.1 bn | 2.0 bn | esef· 07 May 2025derived |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 1.1 bn | 1.5 bn | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Capex | 2.0 bn | 2.4 bn | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Free cash flow | -963.9 m ≈ | -889.2 m ≈ | esef· 07 May 2025derived |
| Investing cash flow | -2.3 bn | -2.4 bn | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Financing cash flow | 464.3 m | 1.9 bn | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Dividends paid | 671.5 m | 690.6 m | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 54.2% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 20.0 bn EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
54% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 3.29 – 221.06 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E3.29 – 11.95 (Mid 6.93)20 companies used · median multiple 13.3x · quartiles 6.3x – 22.9xAC5.MI, ACE.MI, ADB.MI, AEF.MI, AMP.MI, ARN.MI, ASC.MI, BC.MI, BEC.MI, CAI.MI, CIR.MI, CLF.MI, CMB.MI, COM.MI, CRL.MI, CY4.MI, DEX.MI, DIA.MI, DLG.MI, DNR.MI
- Dividend discount (DDM)162.11 – 221.06 (Mid 187.05)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 54.2% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 6.9% | 50 (vs peers) | 19% |
| Net margin · Quality | 29.4% | 90 (vs peers) | 12% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | -83.7% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 5.1x | 55 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 18.9x | 41 (vs peers) | 19% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -4.4% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 3.4% | 49 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial55/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality47/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial49/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation23/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
"TERNA - RETE ELETTRICA NAZIONALE SOCIETA' PER AZIONI" (IN FORMA ABBREVIATA "TERNA S.P.A.") (TRN.MI). Latest full fiscal year: 2024; data up to 2024-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 3.6 bn EUR in 2024; YoY growth 15.8%; net margin 29.4%; ROE 15.3%.
The estimated value range is 82.70–116.51 EUR per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 96.99 EUR, the price of 9.86 EUR leaves a potential of 883.7% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 89.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 54.2% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 29.4%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- FCF conversion: -83.7%
- FCF yield: -4.4%
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Current ratio, EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Italy · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRN.MI"terna - Rete Elettrica Nazionale Societa' Per Azioni" (in Forma Abbreviata "terna S.p.a.") | 20.0 bn | 18.9 | 15.3% | 29.4% | +15.8% | +8% / +33% |
| DLG.MIDe' Longhi S.p.a. | 6.8 bn | 21.5 | 15.4% | 8.4% | +8.7% | +24% / +60% |
| ACE.MIAcea S.p.a. | 4.6 bn | 9.6 | 18.2% | 16.6% | +0.2% | −4% / +73% |
| DIA.MIDiasorin S.p.a. | 4.3 bn | 28.3 | 9.2% | 13.0% | +0.8% | +31% / −7% |
| CRL.MICarel Industries S.p.a. | 2.9 bn | 39.5 | 16.1% | 11.7% | +8.7% | +3% / +10% |
| AMP.MIAmplifon S.p.a. | 2.7 bn | 29.9 | 8.5% | 3.8% | −0.6% | −9% / −58% |
| CMB.MICembre S.p.a. | 1.3 bn | 27.0 | 20.6% | 18.9% | +6.7% | +11% / +108% |
| COM.MIComer Industries S.p.a. | 1.3 bn | 18.6 | 12.8% | 7.1% | −23.0% | +8% / +64% |
| DNR.MIIndustrie De Nora S.p.a. | 1.1 bn | 13.4 | 8.6% | 9.4% | +1.4% | −22% / −62% |
| ARN.MIAlerion Clean Power S.p.a. In Forma Abbreviata Alerion S.p.a. | 969.2 m | 10.4 | 23.5% | 41.0% | +1.8% | −5% / −23% |
| AVIO.MIAvio S.p.a. | 883.6 m | 86.8 | 2.1% | 1.8% | +21.5% | +18% / +291% |
| CIR.MICir S.p.a. - Compagnie Industriali Riunite | 783.3 m | 6.0 | 17.1% | 7.3% | +1.6% | +4% / +72% |
| ASC.MIAscopiave S.p.a. | 646.3 m | 18.0 | 4.2% | 17.5% | +13.4% | −8% / +33% |
| AC5.MIAcinque S.p.a. | 412.6 m | 19.6 | 4.1% | 3.6% | +0.2% | −6% / +8% |
| BAN.MIBasic Net S.p.a. | 348.0 m | — | -4.9% | -3.5% | +0.4% | −30% / +5% |
| ADB.MIAeroporto Guglielmo Marconi Di Bologna S.p.a. | 324.7 m | 13.1 | 11.1% | 13.7% | +9.2% | −2% / +12% |
| CAI.MICairo Communication S.p.a. | 289.2 m | 6.4 | 8.1% | 4.4% | −1.3% | −22% / +28% |
| ECNL.MIAquafil S.p.a. | 129.6 m | — | -3.2% | -0.9% | −3.9% | −1% / −52% |
| BEC.MIB&C Speakers S.p.a. | 118.7 m | 11.7 | 18.5% | 10.2% | −1.3% | −26% / −32% |
| ABT.MIAbitare In S.p.a. | 76.0 m | 276.0 | 0.4% | 0.4% | +39.8% | −6% / −47% |
| ELC.MIElica S.p.a. | 64.3 m | — | -7.8% | -2.2% | +1.9% | −34% / −48% |
| DEX.MIDexelance S.p.a. | 50.7 m | 2.8 | 11.0% | 5.4% | +12.6% | −63% / −78% |
| CLE.MIClass Editori S.p.a. | 35.1 m | — | -29.2% | -3.8% | −0.7% | −9% / +106% |
| CLF.MICaleffi - S.p.a. | 11.6 m | 5.2 | 10.9% | 3.8% | −2.5% | −4% / −10% |
| AEF.MIAeffe S.p.a. | 10.1 m | 0.5 | 21.9% | 7.7% | −21.3% | −59% / −86% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for TRN.MI from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 6.44 Total return -30% · Per year -30% | 11.34 Total return 21% · Per year 21% | 17.01 Total return 80% · Per year 80% |
| 3 years | 7.64 Total return -7% · Per year -3% | 15.00 Total return 73% · Per year 20% | 24.49 Total return 175% · Per year 40% |
| 5 years | 9.07 Total return 20% · Per year 4% | 19.83 Total return 142% · Per year 19% | 35.27 Total return 312% · Per year 33% |
- Exit P/E± 3.75
- Net margin± 2.62
- Annual revenue growth± 1.96
- Annual dilution± 0.22
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Terna runs Italy's national high-voltage transmission grid, balancing supply and demand in real time and connecting new capacity, including renewables. The company sits at the centre of Italy's energy transition, with an investment plan of over 23 billion euros for 2025-2034 1. In 2024, renewables covered 41.2% of national demand 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- Terna owns the national transmission grid, with a regulated monopoly role and revenues linked to the regulated asset base 1.
- The company has a financing structure with a high share of fixed-rate debt and committed credit lines that support investment 1.
- System operation has shown continuity under extreme weather and generation conditions, including black-start restoration tests 1.
Weaknesses
- Project delivery depends on permits and local acceptance, which can delay the investment timetable 1.
- Reliance on a small number of critical equipment suppliers can create delays and extra costs 1.
- Tariff adjustments reach the financial statements with a lag of about one year, creating a timing effect 1.
Opportunities
- The 2025 Development Plan and the Hypergrid project could expand the regulated asset base over the long term 1.
- Capital-light solutions can raise the capacity of the existing grid at lower cost than new infrastructure 1.
- Electrochemical storage and interconnections could become additional sources of system services and revenue 1.
Threats
Risks
- Regulatory riskhigh
Revenues depend on tariffs set by ARERA, and multi-year reviews can significantly change returns 1.
- Investment execution riskhigh
The technical complexity of HVDC projects and Hypergrid, along with permit delays, can affect the investment timetable 1.
- Supplier riskmedium
Pressure on the productive capacity of key suppliers can lead to delays and extra costs 1.
- Climate and cyber riskmedium
Extreme weather and cyber-attacks can interrupt service and affect the company's reputation 1.
- Interest rate and financing risklow
Although most debt is fixed-rate, refinancing long-term funding could cost more if market conditions change 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If Development Plan investments are delivered on time, the regulated asset base could grow considerably over the coming decade 1.
- The integration of renewables and the need for flexibility could support demand for Terna's system services and storage 1.
- A debt structure mostly at fixed rates could limit the impact of higher interest rates on costs 1.
What would break the thesis
- If permits or local acceptance delay projects, revenues could be deferred and costs could rise 1.
- Stricter tariff reviews could reduce returns on new investment, particularly if the cost of capital falls 1.
- Geopolitical tensions and cyber risks could generate unexpected costs and reputational damage 1.
What to watch
- Evolution of the WACC and the 2026-2027 update mechanism2026
- Commissioning timetable for the 2025 Development Plan and Hypergrid projects2030
- Transition from the transitional phase to the consolidation phase of the TIDE model1 February 2026
- Pace of commissioning of batteries contracted through the Capacity Market2025
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Terna operates as the transmission system operator of Italy's national grid under a government concession and ARERA regulation 1. Through dispatching, the company schedules grid and plant availability, forecasts demand and manages real-time power flows from a National Control Centre coordinating regional centres 1. Grid development is central, since the integration of renewables and system security depend on it 1.
The company manages cross-border exchanges through interconnections and market coupling, with a net import balance of 51.0 TWh in 2024 1. Terna also pursues capital-light solutions such as electrochemical storage and Dynamic Thermal Rating to extract more capacity from existing assets 1. Managing regulatory, operational and climate risks is a core part of the business 1.
The group's financing structure carries a high share of fixed-rate debt, at 84%, which limits immediate exposure to rising interest rates 1. The group states that its liquidity and committed credit lines cover its financing needs for the next 18-24 months 1.
Segments
Dispatching and system operation
Dispatching keeps supply and demand in instantaneous balance, with scheduling over multiple horizons and real-time monitoring 1. In 2024 Terna handled record renewable output and weather-driven volatility without interrupting service 1. It also carried out real black-start restoration tests in Sicily and Veneto 1.
Grid development and investment
The 2025 Development Plan includes interconnections, HVDC lines and the Hypergrid project, with milestones for 2030, 2034 and post-2034 1. Terna aims to extract more value from existing assets through capital-light measures such as higher transit limits and lower curtailment 1. Investments depend on permits and acceptance by local communities 1.
International exchanges and interconnections
Volumes traded through market coupling reached record levels in 2024, with exports up 47.9% on 2023 1. The company presents interconnections as tools for efficiency and security, with projects linking France, Austria, Tunisia and Sardinia in planning or development 1.
Market context
Terna operates in a regulated market where tariffs are set by ARERA on the basis of the regulated asset base and the cost of capital 1. The WACC is 5.5% for 2025, and the regulator introduced an update mechanism for 2026-2027 if the change exceeds 30 basis points 1. Electricity demand rose 2.2% in 2024 versus 2023, supporting the need for grid capacity 1.
The market is changing through renewable integration, the phase-out of coal plants and the move to the TIDE dispatching model, which introduces 15-minute imbalance settlement 1. Macroeconomic stability in 2024 reduced commodity price volatility, but geopolitical and trade risks remain 1.
Trends
- Renewable integrationmixed
Renewable output reached record levels, increasing the need for flexibility and transmission capacity 1. Over the long term this could support demand for grid investment, while also complicating system operation 1.
- Electrochemical storagetailwind
Batteries are used for frequency regulation and reserve services, and Terna has contracted significant capacity through auctions 1. If commissioning accelerates, this could ease pressure on traditional plants 1.
- Geopolitical tensions and costsheadwind
The war in Ukraine and the Middle East conflict have raised supply, cyber-attack and price-volatility risks 1. The company notes that key suppliers face capacity pressure, which can lead to delays 1.
- Extreme weather eventsheadwind
More frequent extreme climate events threaten infrastructure and service continuity, and the Resilience Plan responds to this risk 1. Grid hardening costs could rise but may also reduce outages 1.
Competitive position
Terna holds a legal monopoly for high-voltage transmission in Italy, and the sources analysed do not identify direct competitors in this activity 1. Competition appears instead in storage, renewable generation and energy services, where private operators can enter 1.
Indirect competition could come from distributed self-consumption and storage, which may change long-term grid needs 1. The sources do not describe US-listed competitors, so the list below is limited.
- Other European transmission operators
Indirect competition through interconnections and cross-border flows, with no directly equivalent US-listed peer identified in the source
- Private electrochemical storage operators
Take part in capacity auctions and balancing services, competing for the same system services
- Renewable energy producers
Can reduce reliance on traditional plants, influencing demand for balancing and transmission services
- Local energy distributors
Can develop distributed storage and flexibility solutions, partly substitutable for system services
News & filings
In the press
- GEK TERNA: Komotini Plant A Global Success StoryTo Vima International (GR, EN) · 29 Oct 2026 · EN
- Grecii de la Gek Terna își extind prezența în România cu un proiect energetic de 145 milioane de euro / Grupul are deja contracte feroviare de aproape 800 milioane de euroEconomedia · 21 Sept 2026 · RO
- Contract major în România. Grecii de la GEK Terna se extind în țară. Semnează cu PPC pentru un proiect de 145 milioane euroProfit.ro · 13 Sept 2026 · RO
- Compania greacă Gek Terna, care a câștigat un contract major de infrastructură feroviară în România, investește masiv în expansiunea internaționalăG4Media · 23 Jul 2026 · RO
- Grecii de la Gek Terna semnează pentru 800 de milioane de euro în România. Țara noastră, a doua cea mai mare piață după GreciaEconomedia · 23 Jul 2026 · RO
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202407 May 2025
- Annual report 202407 May 2025
- Annual report 202307 May 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2024-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / TERNA - RETE ELETTRICA NAZIONALE SOCIETA' PER AZIONI (IN FORMA ABBREVIATA 'TERNA S.P.A.') · 31 Dec 2024
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.