olivLaw · European equity research
Diageo plc DGE.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · ISIN GB0002374006 · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
Diageo is a British spirits group covering spirits including RTDs and premium beer, with reported net sales of 19.6 billion USD in fiscal 2026. The company is in a restructuring and a turnaround of its North American business, while pursuing growth in the rest of the world.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Diageo plc (DGE.L) stock was 18.72 GBP (+3.17% on the day), with beta 0.40, 52-week range 13.63–18.74 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 67.0
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 16.56 – 18.56
- above the upper band · %B 1.08 · band width 11.3%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 16.80 / 16.01
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.39 / 0.32
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +16.7% | −0.6% | +17.4 pp | — |
| 3 months | +8.0% | −4.2% | +12.2 pp | — |
| 6 months | +22.0% | +4.3% | +17.7 pp | — |
| Year to date | +16.7% | +7.5% | +9.2 pp | — |
| 1 year | +4.1% | +9.9% | −5.8 pp | +5.8% |
| 3 years | −41.1% | +49.8% | −90.9 pp | +26.3% |
| 5 years | −50.5% | +42.8% | −93.3 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
the price (USD) and the reports are in different currencies
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 28.3 bn | 27.9 bn | 28.0 bn | 27.8 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −1.3% | +0.3% | −0.7% |
| Net income | 4.5 bn | 4.2 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.0 bn |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −7.0% | −39.1% | −22.9% |
| Diluted EPS | 1.96 | 1.73 | 1.06 | 0.78 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −11.7% | −38.8% | −26.3% |
| net % | 15.8% | 14.9% | 9.1% | 7.1% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
- Cash
- 1.5 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 19.1 bn USD
- Net debt
- 17.5 bn USD
- Equity
- 13.0 bn USD
- Total assets
- 46.8 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 1.47x
- Current ratio
- 1.60x
- ROE
- 15.0%
- ROA
- 4.1%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 28.3 bn | 27.9 bn | 28.0 bn | 27.8 bn | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 8.3 bn | 8.1 bn | 8.1 bn | 8.0 bn | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 12.3 bn | 12.2 bn | 12.2 bn | 11.7 bn | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Operating income | 5.5 bn | 6.0 bn | 4.3 bn | 3.2 bn | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 5.6 bn | 5.5 bn | 3.5 bn | 2.6 bn | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Income tax | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 999.0 m | 606.0 m | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Net income | 4.5 bn | 4.2 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.0 bn | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 1.96 | 1.73 | 1.06 | 0.78 | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 2.3 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.2 bn | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.8 bn | 1.1 bn | 2.2 bn | 1.5 bn | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Receivables | — | 3.5 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.3 bn | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Inventories | — | 9.7 bn | 10.7 bn | 10.5 bn | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Current assets | — | 15.1 bn | 17.5 bn | 17.2 bn | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Total assets | — | 45.5 bn | 49.3 bn | 46.8 bn | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | — | 18.6 bn | 20.8 bn | 19.1 bn | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | — | 9.9 bn | 10.7 bn | 10.7 bn | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | — | 33.4 bn | 36.1 bn | 33.9 bn | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Equity | 11.7 bn | 12.1 bn | 13.2 bn | 13.0 bn | esef· 02 Sept 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 2.3 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.5 bn | esef· 02 Sept 2026derived |
Cash flow · USD
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Price and reporting are in different currencies; market indicators are unavailable.
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
44% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 8.79 – 13.56 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E8.79 – 13.56 (Mid 11.24)17 companies used · median multiple 14.4x · quartiles 11.3x – 17.4x0EV1.L, ABDN.L, ABF.L, AIRE.L, AJB.L, ALFA.L, AMIF.L, APTD.L, ASHM.L, AUTO.L, BAB.L, BAG.L, BATS.L, BBY.L, BCG.L, BKG.L, BME.L
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 7.7% | 25 (vs peers) | 24% |
| Net margin · Quality | 7.1% | 43 (vs peers) | 14% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -0.6% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 19% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -26.4% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 19% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 2.6x | 17 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.6x | 67 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet37/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality32/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
DIAGEO PLC (DGE.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 27.8 bn USD in 2026; YoY growth -0.7%; net margin 7.1%; ROE 17.8%.
The estimated value range is 8.79–13.56 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
What contradicts it
- ROIC: 7.7%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -0.6%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -26.4%
- Interest coverage: 2.6x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 104.3 bn | 13.5 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +7% / +88% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.7 bn | 14.3 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −5% / −15% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.1 bn | 24.7 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −10% / +158% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.4 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.2 bn | 16.3 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +20% / +160% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.1 bn | 10.8 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +11% / +41% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.6 bn | 11.3 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −0% / −22% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.9 bn | 17.4 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +68% / −51% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.8 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +8% / +128% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.9 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +28% / +18% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 763.6 m | 36.2 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +71% / unavailable |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 671.9 m | 14.4 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −7% / +26% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 494.5 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +71% / +8% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 486.8 m | 16.3 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −28% / +10% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 344.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −45% / −85% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 111.3 m | 28.5 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 9.9 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +325% / +844% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −7% / +164% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +60% / +63% |
| AEP.LAnglo-Eastern Plantations PLC | — | — | 16.1% | 19.5% | +25.0% | +5% / +113% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for DGE.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Diageo is a British spirits group covering spirits including RTDs and premium beer, with reported net sales of 19.6 billion USD in fiscal 2026 1. The company is in a restructuring and a turnaround of its North American business, while pursuing growth in the rest of the world 1.
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- North America turnaroundhigh
If the plan to restore share in North America does not meet its targets, group results could be affected 1.
- Restructuring costsmedium
Restructuring could generate larger expenses and cash outflows than estimated, which could delay the savings 1.
- Water stresshigh
High exposure to water stress could affect production and the licence to operate in water-scarce areas 1.
- Agricultural raw material pricesmedium
Climate change could raise the cost of barley, sugar, agave and other raw materials, affecting margins 1.
- Glass packaging costslow
If glass costs rise and consumers prefer more sustainable packaging, production costs could increase 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If spirits and premium beer keep their resilience and demographics stay favourable, long-term growth could return 1.
- If restructuring savings are delivered and reinvested effectively, operating margin could rise in the coming years 1.
- If Guinness keeps growing, premium beer could become an important growth driver for the group 1.
What would break the thesis
What to watch
- Evolution of market share in North America2027
- Delivery of restructuring savings and related cash flowFiscal 2027
- Reaching the net debt to EBITDA target rangeFiscal 2027
- Development of Guinness capacity and premium beer growthNext annual report
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Diageo covers the full value chain, from sourcing raw materials from smallholder farmers in Africa and Mexico to distilling, brewing, transport, sales and marketing of its drinks brands 1. The company describes a seven-step model through which it aims to create value for investors, employees, suppliers, consumers and communities 1. Diageo states it focuses on premiumisation while also expanding its portfolio through smaller formats and RTDs 1.
Diageo's reported figures for fiscal 2026 include restructuring costs and impairment charges that weighed on reported operating profit, while organic operating profit still grew 1.
Segments
Spirits including RTDs
The company considers spirits including RTDs a resilient category with long-term growth potential, supported by the strength of its brands and a more focused RTD strategy 1.
Premium beer (Guinness)
Diageo invests in Guinness to help sustain double-digit growth, including through added capacity and the Guinness 0.0 offering 1.
North America
This is the company's largest market and, according to the report, requires a significant turnaround, where the three-tier system adds complexity 1.
Market context
The company expects global value growth of 1-3% for spirits including RTDs, and for premium beer, over the next three years 1. The most important near-term pressure comes from consumer wallets in developed markets, where income growth has lagged inflation 1.
In emerging markets, stronger income growth and an expanding middle class are described as supporting category participation and premiumisation 1.
Trends
- Favourable demographicstailwind
Population growth expands the legal purchasing age consumer base, while spirits spending holds across a broad range of ages 1.
- Pressure on consumer walletsheadwind
In developed markets, income growth has lagged inflation and discretionary spending has come under pressure, affecting middle-income consumers too 1.
- Changing consumer behavioursmixed
Consumers report moderating alcohol consumption but keep participating through lower-strength products, smaller formats and RTDs, while convenience supports RTD growth 1.
- Climate and packaging costsheadwind
Water stress and climate-exposed agricultural raw materials could raise costs, and glass use is the main transition risk over the longer term 1.
Competitive position
The annual report does not name specific competitors, so the source only gives the general context of the spirits and premium beer categories. The company says it will strengthen its position through category strategies and customer partnerships 1.
- Premium spirits producers
The source does not name specific competitors, so none are identified here.
- Premium beer producers
The source does not name specific competitors, so none are identified here.
- Other RTD producers
The source mentions RTD growth but does not identify competing participants.
- Off-trade distributors and partners
The company intends to serve off-trade customers better, without naming entities.
News & filings
In the press
- How Novaya Gazeta journalists tried to buy a nuclear warhead in 1990s RussiaMeduza English (independent RU/exile) · 05 Nov 2026 · EN
- Record mondial de cartonașe roșii: 51 de eliminări într-un meci de fotbal, după o bătaie generală între jucători și antrenori, în BraziliaLibertatea.ro · 05 Nov 2026 · RO
- Guinness names Türkiye's 4,700-year-old shipwreck world's oldestDaily Sabah — Economy (TR, EN) · 05 Nov 2026 · EN
- Black Friday 2026. Anker aduce oferte speciale la căști cu arhitectură premiată de Guinness World Records și aspiratoare inteligenteHotNews.ro · 05 Nov 2026 · RO
- Guinness World Record broken as 53 red cards shown in Brazil under-20 matchAl Jazeera — World · 05 Nov 2026 · EN
- Ötvennél is több piros lapot osztott ki a bíró egy brazil focimeccsen, Guinness-rekord dőlt megTelex English (HU) · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Guinness recognizes wreck off Turkey as world’s oldestTurkish Minute (TR, EN, exil) · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- World’s oldest shipwreck enters Guinness World RecordsHürriyet Daily News — Türkiye (TR, EN) · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- World's oldest shipwreck discovered off Türkiye's coast enters Guinness World RecordsAnadolu Agency (TR, EN) · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Black Friday 2026: Anker aduce cele mai bune prețuri din an la căști premiate de Guinness World Records, baterii externe pentru telefoane și laptopuri, precum și aspiratoare inteligenteLibertatea.ro · 04 Nov 2026 · RO
- Bhutan sets Guinness record by raising 108 stupas in 9 hoursThe Hindu — International · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Paul Georgescu, fost campion mondial la înot în ape înghețate, cu un record în Guinness World Records, dezminte: „Nu sunt fiul lui Călin Georgescu” / Rețelele sociale s-au umplut de mesaje în care e confundat cu Pavel Georgescu, fiul fostului candidat la președințieG4Media · 15 Oct 2026 · RO
- Diageo Korea whisky expert Sung Jung-yong earns prestigious Scotch honorKorea Times — Business · 14 Oct 2026 · EN
- All hail Pumpkin-g Paton: British grower beats his own record with giant gourd - Guinness World RecordsSurge — Google News · 07 Oct 2026 · RO
- 168 hours on the dance floor: Nigerian dancer chases Guinness World RecordAl Jazeera — World · 28 Sept 2026 · EN
- Diageo brings in former Britvic, Tesco executive Joanne Wilson as CFOYahoo Finance — News · 23 Sept 2026 · EN
- A look at some of China's standout Guinness World RecordsCGTN — World · 17 Sept 2026 · EN
- Masa Care Unește, evenimentul care a inclus Bucureștiul în Guinness World Records, a generat contribuții în valoare de peste 100.000 de euro pentru construirea primului Spital de Psihiatrie Pediatrică din România - adevarul.roAdevărul · 16 Sept 2026 · RO
- Masa Care Unește, evenimentul care a inclus Bucureștiul în Guinness World Records, a generat contribuții în valoare de peste 100.000 de euro pentru construirea primului Spital de Psihiatrie Pediatrică din RomâniaAdevărul · 16 Sept 2026 · RO
- Topul celor mai frumoase hoteluri din lume în 2026: primul pe listă a fost construit acum 800 de ani și a fost deținut de familia GuinnessLibertatea.ro · 05 Sept 2026 · RO
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202602 Sept 2026
- Annual report 202521 Aug 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2026-06-30 (ESEF) · SEC / Diageo plc · 30 Jun 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.