olivLaw · European equity research
Games Workshop Group PLC GAW.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · ISIN GB0003718474 · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
Games Workshop Group PLC designs and sells Warhammer miniatures and tabletop wargames through its own and third party channels, and licenses the Warhammer IP for video games, media and consumer products. Core revenue in fiscal 2025 grew by 14.2% to £565.0 million, and the company remains in focus as it expands licensing and its store network.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Games Workshop Group PLC (GAW.L) stock was 161.00 GBP (−1.17% on the day), with market capitalisation 53.0 m GBP, P/E 0.4 on diluted EPS of 458.20 GBP over the last 12 months, beta 0.67, 52-week range 153.00–219.40 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 42.1
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 155.65 – 171.90
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.33 · band width 9.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 171.49 / 184.61
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -3.52 / -3.76
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −2.8% | −0.6% | −2.1 pp | — |
| 3 months | −15.0% | −4.2% | −10.8 pp | — |
| 6 months | −18.1% | +4.3% | −22.5 pp | — |
| Year to date | −14.9% | +7.5% | −22.4 pp | — |
| 1 year | −0.6% | +9.9% | −10.5 pp | +5.8% |
| 3 years | +56.3% | +49.8% | +6.5 pp | +26.3% |
| 5 years | +63.7% | +42.8% | +20.9 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 2-quarter history (min 0.2, median 0.2, max 0.2; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 470.8 m | 525.7 m | 617.5 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +11.7% | +17.5% |
| Net income | 134.7 m | 151.1 m | 196.1 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +12.2% | +29.8% |
| Diluted EPS | 409.40 | 458.20 | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +11.9% | unavailable |
| net % | 28.6% | 28.7% | 31.8% |
| Free cash flow | 177.9 m | 180.6 m | 223.4 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 01 Jun 2025
- Cash
- 132.6 m GBP
- Financial debt
- unavailable GBP
- Net debt
- unavailable GBP
- Equity
- 280.8 m GBP
- Total assets
- 383.0 m GBP
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 3.58x
- ROE
- 73.7%
- ROA
- 53.4%
- FCF margin
- 36.2%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (GBP)
Margins
Income statement · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 470.8 m | 525.7 m | 617.5 m | esef· 24 Sept 2025verified |
| Cost of revenue | 149.2 m | 151.2 m | 172.5 m | esef· 24 Sept 2025verified |
| Gross profit | 321.6 m | 374.5 m | 445.0 m | esef· 24 Sept 2025verified |
| Operating income | 170.2 m | 201.8 m | 261.3 m | esef· 24 Sept 2025verified |
| Interest expense | 900.0 k | 1.3 m | 1.4 m | esef· 24 Sept 2025verified |
| Pre-tax income | 170.6 m | 203.0 m | 262.8 m | esef· 24 Sept 2025verified |
| Income tax | 35.9 m | 51.9 m | 66.7 m | esef· 24 Sept 2025verified |
| Net income | 134.7 m | 151.1 m | 196.1 m | esef· 24 Sept 2025verified |
| Diluted EPS | 409.40 | 458.20 | — | esef· 03 Oct 2024verified |
Balance sheet · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 90.2 m | 107.6 m | 132.6 m | esef· 24 Sept 2025verified |
| Receivables | 36.3 m | 37.8 m | 52.1 m | esef· 24 Sept 2025verified |
| Current assets | 174.0 m | 191.9 m | 227.5 m | esef· 24 Sept 2025verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 55.7 m | 56.5 m | 64.9 m | esef· 24 Sept 2025verified |
| Goodwill | 1.4 m | 1.4 m | 1.4 m | esef· 24 Sept 2025verified |
| Total assets | 326.8 m | 351.3 m | 383.0 m | esef· 24 Sept 2025verified |
| Current liabilities | 48.2 m | 58.4 m | 63.6 m | esef· 24 Sept 2025verified |
| Equity | 235.1 m | 251.4 m | 280.8 m | esef· 24 Sept 2025verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 328.8 k | 329.3 k | — | esef· 24 Sept 2025derived |
Cash flow · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 192.7 m | 196.2 m | 247.4 m | esef· 24 Sept 2025verified |
| Capex | 14.8 m | 15.6 m | 24.0 m | esef· 24 Sept 2025verified |
| Free cash flow | 177.9 m ≈ | 180.6 m ≈ | 223.4 m ≈ | esef· 24 Sept 2025derived |
| Investing cash flow | -27.1 m | -30.1 m | -38.0 m | esef· 24 Sept 2025verified |
| Financing cash flow | -146.6 m | -148.5 m | -183.3 m | esef· 24 Sept 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 41.7% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 53.0 m GBP
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
42% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 41.7% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 31.8% | 86 (vs peers) | 15% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 113.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 186.6x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 3.6x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 0.3x | 94 (vs peers) | 25% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 421.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 20% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet100/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality93/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation97/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
GAMES WORKSHOP GROUP PLC (GAW.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-06-01.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 617.5 m GBP in 2025; YoY growth 17.5%; net margin 31.8%; ROE 73.7%.
The estimated value range is 6,722.29–10,367.21 GBP per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 8,589.70 GBP, the price of 161.00 GBP leaves a potential of 5,235.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 98.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 41.7% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 31.8%
- FCF conversion: 113.9%
- Interest coverage: 186.6x
- Current ratio: 3.6x
- P/E (TTM): 0.3x
- FCF yield: 421.3%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 104.3 bn | 13.5 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +7% / +88% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.7 bn | 14.3 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −5% / −15% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.1 bn | 24.7 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −10% / +158% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.4 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.2 bn | 16.3 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +20% / +160% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.1 bn | 10.8 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +11% / +41% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.6 bn | 11.3 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −0% / −22% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.9 bn | 17.4 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +68% / −51% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.8 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +8% / +128% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.9 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +28% / +18% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 763.6 m | 36.2 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +71% / unavailable |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 671.9 m | 14.4 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −7% / +26% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 494.5 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +71% / +8% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 486.8 m | 16.3 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −28% / +10% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 344.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −45% / −85% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 111.3 m | 28.5 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| GAW.LGames Workshop Group PLC | 53.0 m | 0.3 | 73.7% | 31.8% | +17.5% | −17% / +50% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 9.9 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +325% / +844% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −7% / +164% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +60% / +63% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for GAW.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (GBP)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 105.21 Total return -35% · Per year -35% | 185.15 Total return 15% · Per year 15% | 277.73 Total return 73% · Per year 73% |
| 3 years | 124.79 Total return -22% · Per year -8% | 244.86 Total return 52% · Per year 15% | 399.92 Total return 148% · Per year 35% |
| 5 years | 148.02 Total return -8% · Per year -2% | 323.83 Total return 101% · Per year 15% | 575.89 Total return 258% · Per year 29% |
- Exit P/E± 61.22
- Net margin± 42.85
- Annual revenue growth± 31.96
- Annual dilution± 3.60
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Games Workshop Group PLC designs and sells Warhammer miniatures and tabletop wargames through its own and third party channels, and licenses the Warhammer IP for video games, media and consumer products. Core revenue in fiscal 2025 grew by 14.2% to £565.0 million 1, and the company remains in focus as it expands licensing and its store network.
SWOT
Strengths
- The Warhammer universe is rich and extensive, and the company controls its IP, allowing it to exploit it across multiple categories 1.
- High margins in the core business and the ability to fund operations from free cash flow, without external debt 1.
- An extensive network of company-owned stores and partner trade accounts supports recruitment of new hobbyists 1.
Weaknesses
- Licensing income depends on projects developed by partners that the company does not control 1.
- Online sales through the company's own webstore declined in fiscal 2025, showing the vulnerability of this channel 1.
- Rents and store fit-out costs are rising, which makes opening new locations more challenging 1.
Opportunities
Risks
- Dependence on licensing partnershigh
The success of licences depends on licensees developing and delivering projects, which the company does not control 1.
- Currency riskmedium
Exposure to the US dollar and euro could affect reported results, and a depreciation of these currencies would weigh on revenue 1.
- Rising operating costsmedium
Rents, fit-out and staff costs are increasing, which could compress margins if not offset by sales growth 1.
- Stock and new productslow
Some new product releases sold below planned levels, leading to higher inventory provisions 1.
- Underperforming storeslow
Stores that do not meet the financial model will probably be closed, which could reduce the retail network 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Strong core revenue growth, supported by trade and the expansion of the trade account network, shows solid demand for Warhammer products 1.
- High operating margins and very high return on capital employed, achieved without external debt, could support continued dividend distributions 1.
- The long-term partnership with Amazon and video game success could open new licensing income sources 1.
What would break the thesis
- Licensing income depends on external partners and a video game environment the company describes as challenging in the short term 1.
- Rising staff, rent and IT investment costs could limit margin expansion 1.
- Online and some regional retail sales had weak periods, showing that demand is not uniform across channels 1.
What to watch
- Progress of the Warhammer 40,000 project with Amazon, which has no set release date2027
- Performance of stores in Australia and New Zealand, Japan and China, which are under growth plans or reviewnext 10-K
- Development of operating costs and core margin after investment in staff and ITnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The company designs, produces and sells miniatures and hobby materials for Warhammer, with tabletop games at its core. Sales run through three channels: trade partners, its own stores and the warhammer.com online platform 1. Beyond the core business, Games Workshop exploits the Warhammer universe through licensing agreements with partners who develop video games, series, films and consumer products 1. Its headquarters and flagship store are in Nottingham, UK 1.
The model combines in-house production with recruitment of new players through events, local clubs and marketing content, with marketing spend held at around 2% of core sales 1. The company aims to protect and monetise its IP beyond tabletop gaming, through licensing income that requires no direct production investment 1.
The financial structure is funded from free cash flow, with no external borrowings, and part of the surplus cash is returned to shareholders as dividends 1. Return on capital employed in the core business was 191% in fiscal 2025 1.
Segments
Market context
The tabletop and miniatures market, where Warhammer is the principal product, is supported by growing player numbers attracted through events, clubs and digital content 1. In licensed video games the company describes conditions as challenging in the short term, which keeps its royalty forecasts cautious 1.
Core revenue growth was achieved against a backdrop of exchange rate effects on sterling reporting, and exposure to the US dollar and euro remains significant for results 1.
Trends
- Media expansionmixed
The agreement with Amazon to adapt the Warhammer 40,000 universe into films and series is a long-term project, and the company does not expect significant news on it in the short term 1.
- Video gamestailwind
Space Marine 2 set a new benchmark for a Warhammer video game, and the company is exploring further console and mobile opportunities 1.
- Freight and production costsmixed
Lower carriage costs, after less air freight and lower sea container rates, supported gross margin, while store rents and fit-out costs rose 1.
- Operating costsheadwind
Core operating expenses rose with investment in staff, new stores and IT projects, which could limit margin growth if investment accelerates 1.
Competitive position
The sources do not name competitors; they describe indirect competition from other tabletop games, video games and consumer products that compete for players' time and budgets 1. The company notes that independent retailers now also sell its products online, giving customers more choice 1.
In licensing, the company depends on the ability of partners to deliver successful products, so its position against other franchise owners is determined by the quality of these partnerships 1.
- Independent tabletop retailers
They sell Warhammer products through the trade channel and online, acting both as partners and as competitors for customer attention 1.
- Video game producers
They compete for players' entertainment budgets, but are also licensees developing games in the Warhammer universe 1.
- Other tabletop and miniatures makers
Other hobby companies compete for the same players and partner stores, though the source does not name them 1.
- Streaming platforms and studios
They compete for audience attention in media content, while the company monetises its IP through partnerships in this area 1.
News & filings
In the press
- Games Workshop seeks IT leader to summon the legions in epic saga battling the forces of ERPThe Register · 05 Oct 2026 · EN
- Interactive Warhammer 40k Galaxy Map – Cartographia ImperialisHacker News · 28 Aug 2026 · EN
- Режиссер «Призраков дома на холме» напишет сценарий к экранизации Warhammer 40,000Kommersant (RU) · 28 Jul 2026 · RU
- Умер основоположник визуального стиля Warhammer Джон БланшKommersant (RU) · 03 Jun 2026 · RU
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202524 Sept 2025
- Annual report 202403 Oct 2024
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-06-01 (ESEF) · SEC / Games Workshop Group PLC · 01 Jun 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.