olivLaw · European equity research
Harworth Group PLC HWG.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · ISIN GB00BYZJ7G42 · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
Harworth Group is a British land regeneration company that develops and sells strategic land for industrial, logistics and residential use, with a land bank of over 15,000 acres. The company reconfirmed its goal of reaching £1 billion of EPRA NDV, with the timeline extended to between end 2028 and end 2029, so the evolution of UK property markets matters a great deal to it.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Harworth Group PLC (HWG.L) stock was 1.89 GBP (+0.96% on the day), with market capitalisation 6.2 m GBP, P/E 0.7 on diluted EPS of 2.80 GBP over the last 12 months, dividend yield 87.43%, beta 0.36, 52-week range 1.20–2.07 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 54.5
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 1.76 – 1.99
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.57 · band width 11.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 1.82 / 1.54
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.03 / 0.04
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +1.2% | −0.6% | +1.8 pp | — |
| 3 months | +6.3% | −4.2% | +10.5 pp | — |
| 6 months | +38.9% | +4.3% | +34.6 pp | — |
| Year to date | +13.3% | +7.5% | +5.8 pp | — |
| 1 year | +16.1% | +9.9% | +6.2 pp | +5.8% |
| 3 years | +89.2% | +49.8% | +39.4 pp | +26.3% |
| 5 years | +6.9% | +42.8% | −35.9 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 0.1, median 0.1, max 0.6; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 72.4 m | 181.6 m | 129.7 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +150.7% | −28.5% |
| Net income | 38.0 m | 57.2 m | 9.5 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +50.8% | −83.5% |
| Diluted EPS | 11.50 | 17.30 | 2.80 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +50.4% | −83.8% |
| net % | 52.4% | 31.5% | 7.3% |
| Free cash flow | 2.5 m | 33.9 m | -62.1 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- unavailable GBP
- Financial debt
- 173.0 m GBP
- Net debt
- unavailable GBP
- Equity
- 699.0 m GBP
- Total assets
- 1.0 bn GBP
- Debt / equity
- 0.25x
- Current ratio
- 2.78x
- ROE
- 1.4%
- ROA
- 0.9%
- FCF margin
- -47.9%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (GBP)
Margins
Income statement · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 72.4 m | 181.6 m | 129.7 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 60.1 m | 150.5 m | 117.2 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 12.4 m | 31.1 m | 12.6 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Operating income | 54.2 m | 74.6 m | 21.6 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 6.4 m | 9.9 m | 15.2 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 49.8 m | 69.4 m | 17.4 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Income tax | 11.9 m | 12.2 m | 7.9 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Net income | 38.0 m | 57.2 m | 9.5 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 11.50 | 17.30 | 2.80 | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 1.38 | 1.52 | 1.65 | esef· 21 Apr 2026derived |
Balance sheet · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receivables | 37.3 m | 72.6 m | 85.5 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Inventories | 263.1 m | 206.0 m | 212.1 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Current assets | 346.3 m | 404.9 m | 335.1 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 1.7 m | 1.5 m | 8.1 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | — | 0 | 450.0 k | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Total assets | 824.4 m | 1.1 bn | 1.0 bn | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 88.1 m | 136.0 m | 120.2 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 29.7 m | 0 | — | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Long-term debt | 33.8 m | 164.1 m | 173.0 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 120.6 m | 144.4 m | 120.5 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 186.7 m | 360.8 m | 343.3 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Equity | 637.7 m | 691.7 m | 699.0 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 3.2 m | 3.2 m | 3.3 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026derived |
Cash flow · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 2.9 m | 34.5 m | -52.0 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Capex | 396.0 k | 600.0 k | 10.1 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 2.5 m ≈ | 33.9 m ≈ | -62.1 m ≈ | esef· 21 Apr 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | 15.4 m | -37.6 m | -40.3 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -2.7 m | 93.3 m | 2.1 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 4.4 m | 4.9 m | 5.4 m | esef· 21 Apr 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 47.9% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 6.2 m GBP
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
48% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 47.9% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 7.3% | 43 (vs peers) | 13% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | -655.6% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 1.4x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.8x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 0.7x | 94 (vs peers) | 22% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -1,004.9% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 87.4% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet40/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality21/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation52/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
HARWORTH GROUP PLC (HWG.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 129.7 m GBP in 2025; YoY growth -28.5%; net margin 7.3%; ROE 1.4%.
The estimated value range is 23.92–34.40 GBP per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 29.16 GBP, the price of 1.89 GBP leaves a potential of 1,441.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 93.5% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 47.9% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Current ratio: 2.8x
- P/E (TTM): 0.7x
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 87.4%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- FCF conversion: -655.6%
- Interest coverage: 1.4x
- FCF yield: -1,004.9%
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 104.3 bn | 13.5 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +7% / +88% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.7 bn | 14.3 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −5% / −15% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.1 bn | 24.7 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −10% / +158% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.4 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.2 bn | 16.3 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +20% / +160% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.1 bn | 10.8 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +11% / +41% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.6 bn | 11.3 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −0% / −22% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.9 bn | 17.4 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +68% / −51% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.8 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +8% / +128% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.9 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +28% / +18% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 763.6 m | 36.2 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +71% / unavailable |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 671.9 m | 14.4 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −7% / +26% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 494.5 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +71% / +8% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 486.8 m | 16.3 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −28% / +10% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 344.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −45% / −85% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 111.3 m | 28.5 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 9.9 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +325% / +844% |
| HWG.LHarworth Group PLC | 6.2 m | 0.7 | 1.4% | 7.3% | −28.5% | +17% / +74% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −7% / +164% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +60% / +63% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for HWG.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (GBP)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 1.05 Total return 20% · Per year 20% | 1.86 Total return 84% · Per year 84% | 2.82 Total return 153% · Per year 153% |
| 3 years | 0.83 Total return 117% · Per year 30% | 1.68 Total return 234% · Per year 50% | 2.82 Total return 361% · Per year 66% |
| 5 years | 0.66 Total return 195% · Per year 24% | 1.52 Total return 369% · Per year 36% | 2.82 Total return 570% · Per year 46% |
- Exit P/E± 0.42
- Net margin± 0.29
- Annual revenue growth± 0.27
- Annual dilution± 0.02
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Harworth Group is a British land regeneration company that develops and sells strategic land for industrial, logistics and residential use, with a land bank of over 15,000 acres. The company reconfirmed its goal of reaching £1 billion of EPRA NDV, with the timeline extended to between end 2028 and end 2029, so the evolution of UK property markets matters a great deal to it.
SWOT
Strengths
- A large land bank and an integrated regeneration model, from acquisition to sale and letting, are the main strengths described by management 1.
- A high planning consent success rate and I&L buildings let quickly after completion support the model 1.
- A balance sheet described as disciplined gives flexibility for investment 1.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
- Interest in land able to support data centres and energy-intensive users could open high-value transactions 1.
- A recovery in I&L markets after the autumn 2025 Budget could accelerate sales and lettings 1.
- Habitat banks and sustainability projects may create extra income from environmental offset requirements 1.
Risks
- Capital riskmedium
The company could struggle to source the capital needed for strategic growth, a risk separated from liquidity risk in 2025 1.
- Construction supply chain riskmedium
Cost increases, labour or material shortages and contractor performance can affect projects, and management says this risk could rise if the conflict persists 1.
- Real estate market riskmedium
Changes in demand, pricing, yields or investor sentiment can influence both development returns and asset valuations 1.
- Planning and regulatory riskmedium
Approval delays and policy shifts can extend or undermine the viability of regeneration projects 1.
- Climate and transition risklow
Extreme weather and the transition to net zero carbon can create new costs and compliance risks, especially if targets are missed 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the I&L recovery continues, the company could convert its large land bank quickly into sales and rental income 1.
- Interest in land able to power data centres could bring high-value transactions 1.
- The integrated regeneration model and the ability to obtain planning consents quickly can support good returns on completed projects 1.
What would break the thesis
- If geopolitical tensions push up interest rates and inflation, the transaction timeline could be extended again 1.
- Capital and liquidity risks, separated in 2025, may limit the company's ability to fund growth plans 1.
- Construction costs and planning delays could reduce margins on regeneration projects 1.
What to watch
- Progress toward the £1 billion EPRA NDV target2028-2029
- Whether construction supply chain risk moves from medium toward highnext 10-K
- How quickly the 1.6m sq ft I&L pipeline converts into transactions2026
- Reduction in operational emissions against the operational net zero target2030
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Harworth operates in the regeneration of former industrial and mining land in the UK, covering the full chain: land acquisition and assembly, strategic masterplanning, planning approval, remediation and infrastructure, then sale of serviced plots or direct development of buildings 1. The company says its model rests on specialist skills and a portfolio focused on the industrial and logistics (I&L) and residential sectors 1.
Some of the I&L buildings it develops directly are kept in the investment portfolio, where they generate recurring rental income 1. The Droitwich 170 project illustrates this model: a speculative building that was fully let shortly after completion in Q4 2025 1.
The company also describes a sustainability and social value framework, The Harworth Way, structured around the Planet, Communities and People pillars, which feeds into both operations and development projects 1.
Segments
Industrial and logistics (I&L)
I&L is the main strategic focus, with vertical development and an investment portfolio that includes Grade A units let to a diverse range of occupiers 1. Droitwich 170 was let to Uniserve on a 10.25-year lease at an annualised rent of £9.25 psf, 12% ahead of the published H1-2025 Grade A headline rent 1.
Market context
Demand in the UK industrial and logistics market has shown signs of recovery after the November 2025 Budget, according to management, and the company sees concrete interest in I&L land and property 1. However, the Middle East conflict has added volatility, with possible effects on interest rates, inflation and project timing 1.
Harworth extended the timeline for its EPRA NDV target because of macroeconomic weakness and investor uncertainty, which lengthened the time needed to complete deals 1. The target remains in place if the market keeps recovering 1.
Trends
- Industrial and logistics recoverytailwind
Management sees improving fundamentals in the industrial market, which could support leasing and sales of I&L land 1.
- Data centre power demandtailwind
The company mentions a pipeline with network operators for land able to supply data centres and power-intensive sectors over the next five to ten years 1.
- Macroeconomic uncertaintyheadwind
Interest rates, inflation and access to finance can delay transactions and plans, particularly if geopolitical tensions persist 1.
- Construction costs and regulationmixed
Supply chain pressure, shifts in government policy and tighter environmental requirements can raise costs and delay projects, but may also favour well-prepared land 1.
Competitive position
The analysed sources do not name competitors. The market Harworth works in is occupied by UK land developers and property investors, whose position depends on access to land, planning and delivery capability 1.
- Other regional land developers and industrial park owners
Not named in the analysed sources; competition for strategic sites is described as not a principal risk given the size of the land bank 1.
- Partner housebuilders
Companies that buy serviced plots are both customers and partners rather than direct rivals 1.
- Logistics property investors
Investors buying I&L assets compete indirectly for transactions, and the sources cite investor sentiment as a cause of delay 1.
- Build-to-rent housing operators
These players may compete for residential land or forward-funding partnerships, though the sources do not name them 1.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202521 Apr 2026
- Annual report 202415 Apr 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Harworth Group PLC · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.